PA Population Contracts Since 2020The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. Tags: contraction, pennsylvania, population |
County Income Patterns 2018-2021This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. 08/24/2023 |
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. 05/03/2023 |
PA population Contracts Since 2020The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. 01/04/2023 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. 08/16/2022 |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/10/2021 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 06/10/2020 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/30/2019 |
Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop Migration Data RequestIn response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019. The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 04/29/2019 |
SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTSIn response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive Budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index. 02/15/2018 |
Implications of Aging for the PA EconomyDirector Matt Knittel gave a presentation on May 24th to the PA Council on Aging regarding the implications of an aging population for Pennsylvania’s economy. An appendix slide appears at the end of the PowerPoint to include certain data requested during the presentation. 05/24/2017 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdfpolicy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau, various other Census products and data sup- plied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Other page intentionally left blank. Contents Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 1 Demographic Trends by Age Group .......................................................................................... 3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution .............................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 6 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends ................................................................................................................................. 8 Decedent Trends .......................................................................................................................... 9 Domestic Migration Trends .......................................................................................................... 10 Comparison of Hits: 89 |
Demographics_Outlook_2023.pdfDemographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the vin- tage 2020 and 2022 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 1 Demographic Trends by Age Group .......................................................................................... 3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution................................................................................................. 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 9 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................. 10 Decedent Trends ........................................................................................................................... 11 Recent Migration Trends ................................................................................................................ 13 Hits: 83 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfor IHS Markit (October 2019). Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabu- lations from the 2018 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Penn- sylvania Department of Health. Historical revenue and expenditure data Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 Section 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3 Section 2: Demographic Outlook ......................................................................................... 5 Trends by Age Group ...................................................................................................... 5 Pennsylvania Population Distribution ................................................................................ 7 Dependency Ratios Decline .............................................................................................. 8 Components of Population Change ................................................................................... 9 Population Growth Across States .....................................................................................13 Section 3: Economic Outlook .............................................................................................. 15 Employment Hits: 79 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfmake any policy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau with adjustments to incorporate the 2020 De- cennial Census count, various other Census Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 1 Demographic Trends by Age Group .......................................................................................... 3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution................................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 6 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends .................................................................................................................................... 8 Decedent Trends ............................................................................................................................. 9 Domestic Migration Trends ............................................................................................................ 11 Hits: 72 |
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdfThe Justice Reinvestment Initiative ...................................................................................... 3 State Benchmarks .............................................................................................................. 5 Agency Overview and Recommendations ............................................................................. 9 Activity 1: Manage the Inmate Population ........................................................................... 13 Activity 2: Assess Risk to Public Safety ................................................................................ 15 Activity 3: Safe and Secure Confinement ............................................................................. 19 Activity 4: Inmate/Reentrant Healthcare Services following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form Hits: 69 |
Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdfpolicy recommendations. Demographic projections presented in this report are from the IFO based on data from the 2020 and 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. Various other Census products, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Introduction and Methodology ................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 1 Demographic Trends by Age Group .......................................................................................... 3 Pennsylvania Population Distribution .............................................................................................. 5 Dependency Ratios ....................................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ........................................................................................... 7 Birth Trends ................................................................................................................................. 8 Decedent Trends .......................................................................................................................... 9 Recent Domestic Migration Trends Hits: 69 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfare from IHS Markit, Wells Fargo and PNC. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2021 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Historical Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary............................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Demographic Outlook .......................................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Impact of Recent Demographic Trends on the State Labor Force Hits: 54 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdffrom the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2019 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. His- torical revenue and This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Section 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................. 3 Section 2: Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Hits: 49 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfU.S. are from S&P Global. Demographic projec- tions are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2022 Population Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Historical Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 Demographic Outlook ............................................................................................................... 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 6 Focus: Labor Force Trends Among Older Adults ................................................................................ 7 Economic Outlook ................................................................................................................... 11 Revenue Outlook ..................................................................................................................... 15 Revenue Hits: 47 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfwith elevated unemployment (7.1 percent). Demographic Trends From 2010 to 2020, the Penn State Data Center projects that: • Total population will increase 2.3 percent (0.2 percent per annum). • Elderly residents over age 65 will increase 25.0 percent year (FY 2011-12). 3 Once those parameters are held constant, the projections then allow demographic growth of the target population that receives services (e.g., inmates, pupils, or medical assistance recipients) and inflationary growth in the average cost to provide Hits: 43 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdffrom the Congressional Budget Office or IHS Markit. Demographic projections are from the IFO based on tabulations from the 2020 Popula- tion Estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and data supplied by the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Historical revenue and assumes that expenditures grow in a manner that is sufficient to maintain the level of real services provided to service populations in the base year. Hence, most expenditure projections include an inflationary adjustment to compensate for rising prices. Combined, the two Hits: 42 |
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 41 |
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdfshall include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 38 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services provided by an agency to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating Hits: 37 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form to goals and objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities represent specific services provided to a de- fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs Hits: 33 |
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 31 |
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdfshall include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 28 |
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 27 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfFinancial Statement ........................................................................ 3 Economics – Inflation and Labor Market ..................................................................... 4 Economics – Pandemic Relief Programs End ............................................................... 6 Demographic Outlook ................................................................................................ 7 Demographics – Pennsylvania Population Gains .......................................................... 8 Demographics – Net Domestic Migration Trends ......................................................... 9 Demographics – Migration by Age Group and Region ................................................ 10 Revenues – Fiscal Year-to- 2 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.1 62.0 61.4 61.9 -1.1 -1.7 -1.2 Employment / Population Ratio 59.8 56.7 58.1 59.2 -3.1 -1.7 -0.6 Pennsylvania Labor Market Note: Data Hits: 23 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfentities that do business with certain countries hostile to the U.S. or with countries that perpetrate atrocities against their populations, provides financial support for these countries and contrib- utes to maintaining or enhancing the political or military power of regimes of the company’s power-production activities include projects whose intent is to provide power or electricity to the marginalized populations of Sudan; and the company has failed to take substantial action specific to Sudan. • The company is complicit in the Hits: 23 |
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdfschool surveys (44%). Because large districts and charters submitted surveys, response rates weighted by the share of the student population surveyed are higher: 93% for school districts and 72% for charters. For the 2015 survey, the comparable weighted response rates were serve a maximum of 8 students. We employee 1 teacher and 2 classroom aides for each classroom. Our ELL population is also growing with an additional 120 students over a 2-year period. The weight of these populations must be addressed Hits: 22 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 21 |
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdfshall include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 17 |
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services provided by an agency to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating Hits: 16 |
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services provided by an agency to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating Hits: 16 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfJobs and Real Earnings ........................................................................................ 15 Philadelphia CPI-U ............................................................................................... 16 Consumer Wealth and Debt .................................................................................. 17 Demographic Projections ...................................................................................... 18 Demographics – Components of Population Change ............................................... 19 Other Data Natural Gas Trends .............................................................................................. 20 State and Local Taxes Per Capita .......................................................................... 21 Corporate Net Income Tax Comparison Total 12,994 12,975 12,955 -19 -21 -0.1 -0.2 Pennsylvania Long-Term Demographics: 2020 - 2025 - 2030 Population (000s) Population Change Percent Change Note: Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Hits: 16 |
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 14 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 14 |
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services provided by an agency to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating Hits: 14 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfA. All text highlighted in green are defined there. 3 Sarah Laskow, “How the Plastic Bag Became So Popular,” The Atlantic (2014). 4 John Roach, “Are Plastic Grocery Bags Sacking the Environment,” National Geographic (2003). Introduction | Page 4 impacts led to 60 2.0 Table 3.2 - Urban vs. Rural Annual LWPB Use Note: Total bag usage in millions. Population in thousands and is from U.S. Census Bureau County Population Estimates (2019). 1 Per person annual total represents weighted average of Hits: 13 |
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdfbecause it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains income. Population Growth From 2018 to 2021, Pennsylvania’s population contracted at an average rate of 0.04% per annum. Figure 1 displays outcomes for all counties. Average population growth Hits: 13 |
IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf Only two factors change. Economic growth (GDP, wages, unemployment rates). Demographics such as number of students, inmate population, the MA population and all residents. The Economic and Budget Outlook Slide 5 15.Nov.2012 Summary of Findings 2012-13 2013-14 Hits: 13 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdffor 2019. 19 Last year, the analysis used survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. Because the OES is a large, rolling survey of 1.2 million establishments, as opposed to smaller survey of individuals, the percent. The analysis uses the Merged Outgoing Rotation Group dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The authors discuss three main results. First, higher minimum wages do not appear to impact employment, assuming that the ratio of Hits: 12 |
Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf2017 (estimate) from U.S. Census Bureau. 2025 is a projection by the IFO. August.08.2018 5 2010 PA Population Distribution 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Note: Vertical axis is thousands of residents. Percentages are share of state population. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Baby Boom 28.1% Silent Gen 13.0% 2.5% Generation X 24.6% Millennials Hits: 12 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfdid not attempt to account for secondary jobs that were not included in the U.S. Census Current Population Survey dataset. This analysis imputes those missing second- ary jobs across wage groups and other characteristics of affected workers such as gender used for this analysis: the Merged Outgoing Rotation Group dataset from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The authors discuss three main results. First, higher minimum wages do not appear to impact employment, assuming that the ratio of Hits: 11 |
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdfbecause it includes Social Security income and employer contributions to pension accounts. However, it does not include capital gains income. Population Growth From 2017 to 2020, Pennsylvania’s population contracted at an average rate of 0.03% per annum. Figure 1 displays outcomes for all counties. At the county Hits: 11 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfin the 22-24 and 25-34 age cohorts recorded the largest reduction in relative payroll employment levels and employment-population ratios across all age groups. 1 Overall, the data show a reduction in the employment-population ratio of 4.7 percentage points and 341,800 (-6.1%) payroll jobs from 2019 Q2 (pre-COVID) to 2021 Hits: 11 |
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdfpolicymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although two metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2019, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.02% per annum. Figure 1 Hits: 11 |
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdfpolicymakers with two informative and current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2016 to 2018, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum. Figure Hits: 11 |
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdfof the best and most current measures of economic well-being at the county level. Although the metrics control for population, it should be noted that they do not control for cost of living, which varies widely across the state. Population Growth From 2015 to 2017, Pennsylvania’s population expanded at an average rate of 0.1 percent per annum. Figure Hits: 11 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services provided by an agency to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating Hits: 11 |
IFO ppt.pdfback to 10% for 2013. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Demographic Outlook Interim Population Projections thousands of residents Levels Share Total Decade Age Cohort 2010 2020 2010 2020 Growth 0 - 19 Years 3,179 Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Personal Income Tax • Long-term – possible erosion of the tax base as working age population declines and the number of seniors increases. • Short term – weaker than expected collections from employer withholding for the first half Hits: 10 |
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdfmodest job gains during that time. 1 The second set of figures in the table shows the estimated change in population by age group. Two age groups recorded significant gains due to the aging of Baby Boomers (age 65 to 74 group) and the large Millennial generation that displaced the smaller Generation X (age 35 to 44). Overall, estimated population for residents age 19 to 74 declined by 31,400 (-0.3%). 1 Excludes workers age 14 to 18. Pennsylvania Hits: 9 |
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdfshall include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 9 |
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form to goals and objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities represent specific services provided to a de- fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs Hits: 9 |
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdfThe U.S. Census Bureau recently released state population estimates for July 1, 2022. The Census Bureau estimates that from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022, the state population contracted by 30,680. (See table.) The contraction was mainly driven by a natural or organic decline (-56,150) as Hits: 8 |
RB-2017-5.pdfannual growth rate of (1) state tax revenues generated from those sources, (2) the three economic metrics and (3) state population. Tables 7 through 9 rank states based on the ratio of the average annual growth rates of state tax revenues the IFO for certain states based on official state revenue reports. For the purpose of this analysis, only states with populations greater than two million (36 states) are included. 5 States with a more progressive tax rate structure (e.g., California Hits: 8 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14_data.xlsxwww.bea.gov/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/) Demographics by State 1990-2012 Year/ Total Population Share of Population Annual Growth Rate Age Group Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia West Virginia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Hits: 8 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdftax rates influence millionaire migration patterns. The analysis found that millionaires have lower rates of mi- gration than the general population because they are more likely to (1) be married and have family respon- sibilities, (2) own a business and (3 in its simple form, contains a grain of truth: millionaires pay more attention to tax rates than does the general popula- tion.” The core migration estimates translated into an elasticity of -0.1, or a 1% decrease in millionaire population for Hits: 7 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfdecelerated for both the U.S. and Pennsyl- vania. This outcome is consistent for economies with a maturing population and slower rates of population growth. The average U.S. (2.2 percent) and Pennsylvania (1.7 percent) growth rates are consistent with the long-term potential Hits: 7 |
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdfnext page) ranks states based on the ratio of net domestic migration (inflows into the state less outflows) to state population. The data show that: ▪ Idaho recorded the strongest relative growth, as net migration increased the state population by 1.67% (31,821). ▪ Montana, South Carolina, Florida and Delaware also recorded net domestic migration gains that exceeded 1 Hits: 7 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdfTable 1 ranks states based on the ratio of net domestic migration (inflows into the state less outflows) to state population. The data show that: ▪ Idaho recorded the strongest relative growth, as net migration increased the state population by 1.99% (36,655). ▪ Two other western states also recorded domestic migration gains that exceeded 1.00% of the Hits: 7 |
Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf2009 financial crisis. Persists even when PA economy returns to “normal” growth. Demographic trends and budget implications. Aging populace. Tax base erosion and expenditure cost-drivers. Short-term revenue outlook. FY 2016-17 revenue shortfall. Moderate students: more student loan debt. Does debt restrain growth by delaying home purchases, marriage and child bearing? 2015 Pennsylvania Population Distribution 7/14/2017 8 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 Hits: 7 |
Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdfSize of Labor Force and Participation Rates Important. • Income and Jobs Composition Changes. Expenditure and Revenue Implications. • Expenditures Affected by Population Growth in Groups. • Aging Populace Contributes to Tax Base Erosion. 3 Today’s Presentation 12.May.2016 Demographic Trends All Projections from Penn State Data Hits: 7 |
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdfshall include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 7 |
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 7 |
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdfPA-DE-NJ-MD CPI-U. Total payroll employment grows by 0.8 percent per annum. The total population of Pennsylvania expands by 0.3 percent per annum. The age cohort most likely to use the Turnpike (ages analysis uses regional real GSP growth to reflect the general expansion of the regional economy. Demographic variables use the entire population of the state, as opposed to counties that are contiguous or adjacent to the Turnpike. 3 3 Counties contiguous or Hits: 7 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfdecelerated for both the U.S. and Pennsyl- vania. This outcome is consistent for economies with a maturing population and slower rates of population growth. The average U.S. (2.2 percent) and Pennsylvania (1.7 percent) growth rates are consistent with the long-term potential Hits: 7 |
MTR-2016-12.pdfgrew faster than the U.S. at 2.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Some of these gains are attributable to population growth (see below). By contrast, the southwest and plains regions grew more slowly than the U.S. at 0.1% sector, which contracted significantly in recent years. It is important to note that real GDP growth does not control for population changes, which can have a positive (population increases) or negative (population declines) impact. According to the Pennsylvania State Data Center Hits: 7 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfGeneral Fund support from special funds, such as the Lottery Fund and the Oil and Gas Lease Fund. Service populations that expand at a faster pace than the labor force that supports the tax base. Healthcare inflation that outpaces continue into the future. After this fiscal year, the expenditure projections are based on reasonable assumptions regarding growth of service populations and inflation. Based on those assumptions, the report found that long‐term revenue growth fell short of the expansion of Hits: 7 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfemployment growth slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 8 Demographic Outlook From 2015 to 2025, the Pennsylvania working age population will contract by 181,000. 9 Pennsylvania population growth is slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 10 Revenue Outlook Through January 2017, the base growth rate of Hits: 7 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfemployment growth slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 8 Demographic Outlook From 2015 to 2025, the Pennsylvania working age population will contract by 181,000. 9 Pennsylvania population growth is slower than U.S. and adjacent states. 10 Revenue Outlook Through January 2017, the base growth rate of Hits: 7 |
index.cfmuses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. ... (Full Report) August 2023 Monthly Economic states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states Hits: 7 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdfcan be measured in two parts: (1) the impact of the new or expanded service on the affected population and (2) the impact of the direct capital investment on the state economy. This analysis examines the issues that affect the net where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this Hits: 6 |
Sen_Maj_Pol_Comm_Brain_Drain_Workshop_04_30_2019.pdf30, 2019 Submitted by: Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building 400 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17105 1 Year Population Estimate Population Change 1 Births Deaths Natural Increase Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Net Migration 2000 12,284,173 20,368 Hits: 6 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdfFiscal Office (IFO). Senator Santarsiero requested demographic data that shows net migration by county. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and certain metro areas. For each release, the entire time series is updated from Counties ranked by total net migration. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual and Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for Counties in Pennsylvania: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022. Net Migration by County (April 2020 through July Hits: 6 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdfrestrictions (e.g., public safety, state parks, food and nutrition assistance). These programs generally benefit seniors along with the overall population. Also excluded are state funds for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and state employee pension and retiree healthcare will increase to $8.18 billion (estimate) in FY 2019-20. The increase is attributable to (1) an expanding senior population, (2) temporary cash flow impacts due to the Medical Assistance – Community HealthChoices (MA-CHC) rollout and (3) growth in waiver Hits: 6 |
RB 2019 RACP.pdfDollar figures in millions, except per capita amounts. Per capita figures calculated by the IFO using U.S. Census Bureau population data for 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018 to produce an average population value across that time span. Table 2 RACP Awards by County Grants Awarded Cumulative Value Average Award Per Capita Independent Hits: 6 |
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 6 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states use some form objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services provided by an agency to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. The funds for agency activities include all actual expenditures used to deliver services: labor, benefits, operating Hits: 6 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfis available to firms that contribute to or invest in eligible projects that improve distressed areas and support low-income populations in Pennsylvania. Eligible projects include: affordable housing, community economic development, commu- nity services, education, neighborhood assistance, neighborhood conservation, crime prevention measures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 5 |
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfwhere applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this fall into one of three categories: (1) broad-based job creation programs, (2) programs targeting specific industries or populations (e.g., unemployed, veterans, formerly incarcerated, etc.) or (3) programs targeting blighted, deteriorated or underserved geographic areas of the state. The programs Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfor older who have very low LFPRs (roughly 7% to 9%). The adjusted figures control for the general aging of populations which reduce LFPRs over time due to long-term demographic trends. Using that metric, there is less LFPR contraction for be attributable to other factors, such as those noted above. Table 4 displays IFO estimates and projections of the state population based on the latest data from the U.S. Census. Three years are shown (2019, 2022 and 2025) for various Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfadults age 25 to 54, the LFPR for 2019 was 83.8%. 6 This computation is based on a noninstitutional population of 10.45 million age 16 or older that is used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June in Payroll Employment Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Recent and Long-Term Demographic Trends From 2019 to 2022, the state population contracted by an estimated 48,000 residents and the median age increased. 10 While the first outcome is relatively new Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdfadults age 25 to 54, the LFPR for 2019 was 83.8%. 9 This computation is based on a noninstitutional population of 10.44 million age 16 or older that is used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. April of Labor Statistics. Independent Fiscal Office Page 5 Recent and Long-Term Demographic Trends From 2019 to 2022, the state population contracted by an estimated 48,000 residents and the median age increased. 13 While the first outcome is relatively new Hits: 5 |
Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdfbudget year ahead (5) All material from IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2018). November 19, 2018 2 PA Population Snapshots November 19, 2018 3 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2010 2017 2025 2010-17 2017-25 2010- over the time period. Source: Historical data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. November 19, 2018 4 County Population Growth: 2010-17 Annual Average Population Growth Rate Age Philly Allegheny Erie Cumberland Bradford Under 20 -0.4% -0.7% Hits: 5 |
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form to goals and objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities represent specific services provided to a de- fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs Hits: 5 |
Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 U.S. and PA Population Distributions Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Age 0-19 PA 23.6% US 25.4% Age 20-49 PA 37.8% US 39.8% Age 50-70 PA 27.7% US 25.6% share of population PA US Age 20 October 19, 2017 9 PA Ratio: Working Age / Retirees-Elderly Note: Ratio is equal to residents Hits: 5 |
MTR-2015-07.pdfBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) defines the LFPR as the labor force as a share of the civilian non-institutional population. The labor force includes those currently employed and those looking for work. The higher the LFPR, the larger share of the working-age population that is working or seeking employment. Since 1999, Pennsylvania LFPRs have fallen for teens and young adults. For the 16- Hits: 5 |
IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdfAging and the Pennsylvania Economy Task Force on Private Sector Retirement Security January 25, 2018 Aging Population Has Broad Implications Pennsylvania undergoing dramatic transformation. Began roughly five years ago. Continues over next decade. Subtle 2018 Independent Fiscal Office 5 turn age 65 net gain age 65+ Note: Percentages are decedent rates for age 65+ population at five-year increments. Sources: PA Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau. Projections after 2017 by IFO. number residents Hits: 5 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf0.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% -0.2% 1.5% 5 Employment / Population (2016) 0.78 0.71 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.67 0.72 6 Total Population (2017) 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% -0.7% 0.7% 7 Hits: 5 |
EPLC_April_2024.pdf0% Note: Numbers in thousands. Source: 2020 from the U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. Notes • Large Baby Boomer population are age 60 to 78 in 2024 • Decline in children & teens due to falling fertility rates & declining childbearing female population • Small decline in 85+ from 2020 to 2024 was from 2020 to 2022 (excess deaths) Education Policy & Leadership Center Slide Hits: 5 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf12,668 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 Source: The 2015 data are from the U.S. Census Bureau 2019 Population Projections with estimates by the IFO for age groups above 85 years old. The 2020, 2025 and 2030 data are in September 2020. These data do not incorporate the U.S. Census Bureau's December 2020 annual estimates of resident population for states. In that release, the statewide estimate for Pennsylvania for 2020 was 12,783,254 residents, roughly 19,000 Hits: 5 |
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdfwhere applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this were 6,831 living organ donors in 2018 (excludes bone marrow donations). 4 Shared to Pennsylvania based on population, it is estimated that employers of as many as 250 living organ donors and an unknown number of bone marrow donors may Hits: 4 |
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfwhere applicable, the measures should reflect: outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this did. The table shows the average level of federal QRE for 2015, 2016 and 2017 and the state population for the same years. The final column shows the per capita QRE, or the ratio of those two figures. A three-year Hits: 4 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfdollar amount of legalized cannabis purchased per adult (age 21 or older) from other states and applied to Pennsylvania’s population. Currently, all border states except West Virginia have legalized and impose tax on adult recreational use cannabis. These taxes were 3) how easy it is to obtain a medical marijuana license. 2 In Pennsylvania, roughly 5% of the age 21+ population has access to medical marijuana (441,000 active patient medical marijuana certifications and 9,200 active carded caregivers). 3 In Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfHigher Minimum Wage This analysis uses data from the Merged Outgoing Rotation Group dataset from the 2017 Current Population Survey (CPS). 17 The CPS provides data on the labor force, em- ployment levels, unemployment rates and various demographic characteristics. The monthly 60,000 U.S. households and is designed so that state‐specific observations can be weighted to yield population totals for individual states. The CPS asks respondents to report their hourly wage or weekly salary, occupation, number of hours worked per Hits: 4 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdfstudents. At the time, the administration did not provide an estimate of the impact. The SNAP expansion occurred despite flat population growth and a (current) record-low unemployment rate. These trends suggest that most of the expansion was driven by recent Benefit / Person $119 $176 $245 $274 $181 52% Max Monthly Benefit 1 Person $192 $194 $204 $250 $291 52% PA Population (000s) 12,987 12,996 13,014 12,972 12,962 0% PA Unemployment Rate 4.4 7.9 4 Hits: 4 |
Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdfOutlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life Expectancy and Median Age Age of Workforce Labor Force Participation Rates Components of Population Change All Data from Pennsylvania State Data Center 3.Dec.2014 3 3.Dec.2014 Broad Demographic Trends 2010 2015 8 80.3 66.1 17.6 2014 62.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Source: Current Population Survey (U.S. Census Bureau) and PA Department of Labor and Industry, CWIA. PA Labor Force Participation Rates -1.6 Hits: 4 |
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdfshall include the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost analysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 4 |
Newsstand_January_2020.pdfforce, rather than more people not working. Under these conditions, a decline of the leading index raises less concerns. State Population Barely Grew in 2019 On December 30, 2019 the U.S. Census Bureau released national and state population estimates for 2019. Pennsylvania’s population grew by just 1,067 people, remaining relatively flat at 12.80 million. The Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfState Data Center Adjustments by IFO for 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Three Demographic Trends Unexpected contraction of PA population in 2016. Birth rates continue to fall. Strong domestic migration out of state (but data very preliminary). Retirement 24 age group. Elderly continue to move to warmer weather locations. November 16, 2017 11 U.S. and PA Population Distributions 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1 Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdfDemographer Based on 2015 U.S. Census Estimates 11/15/2016 7 Three Demographic Takeaways No Surprise: A Rapidly Aging Population. First Baby Boomers turn age 65 in 2012. PA is 6 th oldest state based on median age Decade or Period 13,041 13,506 13,935 13,935 Note: thousands of residents. 11/15/2016 12 Regional Population Comparison Levels (000s) and Growth Shares and Median Age 2010 2015 AAGR < 20 65+ Median Delaware 900 946 1.0% Hits: 4 |
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdfand age group through the third quarter of 2022. The analysis used borrowers’ zip codes to group balances into equal-population quartiles. The analysis found that all income groups recorded significant reductions in average credit card balances during the onset of IFO in February 2023. Representative Mercuri requested recent data on Pennsylvania migration. Each year, the U.S. Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties and other areas. For each release, the U.S. Census Bureau updates the entire Hits: 4 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf3.0 3.2 2.6 United States 3.0 1.1 3.1 3.4 3.5 2.8 Population Pennsylvania 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% New York 0.0 -0.1 -0 may not sum to total due to rounding. Source: The 2015 data are from the U.S. Census Bureau 2018 Population Projections. The 2020 and 2025 data are projections by the IFO using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Hits: 4 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdfwhere applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this an RDTC, the Pennsylvania tax credit is neither exceptionally high nor low. As measured by state GDP, larger population states could award much larger amounts (California and Texas), award very modest amounts (Florida) or have no tax credit (New York). Many Hits: 3 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfwhere applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this the appropriate compensation or reimburse- ment for the role? How would compensation vary across zones with vastly different populations of KIZ firms? In preparing this report, the IFO spoke with multiple KIZ tax credit recipients. Most recipients worked with a tax Hits: 3 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdfthe average dollar amount of cannabis purchased per adult (age 21 or older) per year applied to Pennsylvania’s adult population. Because recreational cannabis re- mains illegal under federal law, all cannabis sold in Pennsylvania must be grown in state (no and examined separately. 7 Additional detail on hours worked and full-time/part-time splits is from the 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS). 8 The analysis then projects the 2022 wage distribution to 2024 based on actual and assumed growth rates Hits: 3 |
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdfrestrictions (e.g., public safety, state parks, food and nutrition assistance). These programs generally benefit seniors along with the overall population. Also excluded are state funds for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and state employee pension and retiree healthcare residual based on published U.S. Census data. For example, total net migration for 2017 was computed as follows: 2017 population less 2016 population less 2017 births plus 2017 deaths. It is noted that these data are preliminary and will be Hits: 3 |
RB-2015-04.pdfThis research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the number of workers who would be directly who may receive an hourly wage that is equal to or less than the federal minimum wage is the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey. The CPS is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U Hits: 3 |
Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf2015-16. There are 125 school districts in each group. Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. March 8, 2018 Demographic Update Population Distribution: U.S. vs. PA Trends for School Age, Working Age and Older Adult Groups Population Distribution: U.S. and PA 21 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% Hits: 3 |
Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdfyear. Pennsylvania Economic Outlook 8.Jun.2016 10 Long‐Term Budget Trends Changing Demographics Impact Longer‐Term Outlook Working Age Population Projected to Decline Wave of Retirements Next Decade All Demographic Projections from the Penn State Data Center; Reflects U.S 1946‐1964 26.4% Silent Generation <1946 10.6% 0.9% Gen Z 2005+ 11.4% 8.Jun.2016 12 Population Gain or Loss Average Annual Growth Age 2005‐15 2015‐25 2005‐15 2015‐25 0‐19 ‐164 ‐14 ‐0 Hits: 3 |
Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdfLarge Wave of Retirements Next Decade • Demographic Changes Contribute to Tax Base Erosion • Health Care Costs Help Drive Expenditures 2015 Population by Generation thousands of residents 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Gen Y or Millennials 26.0% Gen X Silent Generation 10.6% 0.9% Gen Z 11.4% average retirement: 64 (male) 62 (female) 11 May 13, 2016 Population Gain or Loss Average Annual Growth Age 2005‐15 2015‐25 2005‐15 2015‐25 0‐19 ‐164 ‐14 ‐0 Hits: 3 |
PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf92 Labor Force (age 16+) Number (000s) 6,580 6,474 -105 Participation Rate 63.2% 61.7% -1.5% Population (000s) Age 18 to 64 7,917 7,777 -140 Age 18 to 69 8,687 8,600 -87 Age March 13, 2023 7 Due to lower LFPRs pandemic savings homeschooling lifestyle choices care for elderly ongoing programs unreported jobs? Population Change Pre-COVID LFPR Change in Labor Force PA Labor Force (000s) -105 PA Demographics (000s) Age 25-54 -63 Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdfown tax base was calculated by pro- jecting national shipments of other tobacco products, then adjusting for the population of Pennsylvania. The e-cigarette revenue projection is based on e-cigarette smoking prevalence, population and other to- bacco products inflation. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $84 $119 $130 Hits: 3 |
MER-2014-01.pdfforce participation rate is de Ðined by BLS as the labor force as a share of the civilian non‐institutional population. The higher the labor force participation rate, the larger share of the working‐age population who are working or seeking employment. Since 1998, the Pennsylvania labor force participa‐ tion rate has remained relatively stable, falling Hits: 3 |
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdfpolicy or other changes. It allows relative prices to change in response to the tax cut and tracks material and population flows into and out of the state. Based on consultations with REMI staff, the IFO used a specific policy option into the REMI model to ensure that the tax cuts flowed to the relevant economic agents. • The REMI model allows population, labor force and employment (includes self-employed) to expand in response to lower taxes relative to other states. • The economic Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfJobs Growth (2018) 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% Demographics Population Growth (2018) 0.3% 0.2% -0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% -0.6% 0.6% Share Under sum to total due to rounding. Source: The 2010 and 2017 data are from the U.S. Census Bureau 2017 Population Projections. The 2025 data are projections by the IFO using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and PA Department Hits: 3 |
IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfdelays or new funding sources November 14, 2019 5 Demographic Outlook Outlook is unchanged – modest or no growth in state population 2016: +0.0% | 2017: +0.0% | 2018 +0.1% Birth rates continue to decline Some change in migration continue to contract Retirement wave continues | Begin to see dramatic increase in age 80+ November 14, 2019 6 PA Population Snapshots November 14, 2019 7 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015- Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdfoutpaced by expenditures, which are projected to grow at an average rate of 4.1 percent per annum. • The Pennsylvania population is expected to grow slowly through FY 2019-20. The projections assume no change in the working age population (ages 20-64) and an increase of 2.8 percent per annum in the 65+ cohort. These demographic trends will Hits: 3 |
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdfchanges scheduled to occur during the subsequent five years. The second section compares CNIT revenues to state personal income and population. Those two metrics are commonly used to compare the relative burden of taxes across states. The third section discusses the used to compare CNIT revenues across states are the ratio of revenues to (1) state personal income and (2) state population. If possible, an analysis would want to compare CNIT revenues to actual profits attributable to a state. However, state-level Hits: 3 |
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf2023 than 2018. Chairman Grove requested historical data on Pennsylvania international migration. Each year, the United States Census Bureau publishes population estimates for the nation, states, counties, state/county equivalents, and Puerto Rico. With each annual release of population estimates, the Population Estimates Program revises and updates the entire time series of estimates from April 1, 2020 to July Hits: 3 |
2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdfm b e r 2 0 1 2 burden on older residents. However, if a large por- tion of the population retires around the same time, PIT collections could be negatively impacted. As of July 1, 2011, the U.S. Census in 2011 to 22.3 percent by 2030. These two age cohorts will comprise roughly equal portions of the PA population by 2030. The working age cohort between 20 and 64 declines by roughly four percentage points over that time span Hits: 3 |
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdfIV.ACA tools to achieve state priorities 3 The Promise of Health Reform 4 Triple Aim • Better patient care • Improved population health • Reduced costs 5 A Shift in Conventional Wisdom Access Cost Quality 1990 Cost Quality 2012 Access 6 State Implementation 4. Expand provider & system capacity 5. Attend to benefit design 6. Promote care coordination 7. Use your data 8. Pursue population health 9. Engage the public in policy development & implementation 10. Promote quality & efficiency in the healthcare system 19 Support for Hits: 2 |
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO these incentives fall into one of three categories: (1) broad-based job creation programs, (2) programs targeting specific industries or populations or (3) programs targeting blighted, deteriorated or underserved geographic areas of the state. This section limits its comparison to incentives Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO measures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar State programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Appendix | Page Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO measures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Appendix | Page Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO measures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Appendix | Page Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO measures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar State programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Appendix | Page Hits: 2 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfwhere applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO submits this where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar State programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Appendix | Page 28 Performance- Hits: 2 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdfand the same years are used across all states. In order to maximize overlap with the two fiscal years, state population and regional price parities (RPPs) are from calendar year (CY) 2021. Therefore, both the state (FY 2021-22) and local (FY 2020-21) tax revenue data share a six-month overlap with the state population (CY 2021) to which they are compared. Finally, the state rankings in this analysis do not control for the export Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfAAGR is average annual growth rate. Minimum Wage | Page 11 Table 2.2 displays the average annual growth rates for population, personal income, food service employ- ment and average wages for the relevant counties in both states. These data illustrate the higher minimum wage increased weekly pay for the average worker by roughly $8, or $410 per year by 2019. County Population Personal Income NAICS 722 Employment Avg. Weekly Wage (NAICS 722) Maryland 0.3% 3.6% 1.8% 3.8% Pennsylvania Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdfpercent of eligible homeowners would utilize the proposed tax relief. 1 Previous research by the IFO suggests that the full population eligible for property tax relief does not typically apply for relief. For example, in 2017, roughly two-thirds of eligible shown in the table. The future benefits and cost of this proposal will be affected by the growth of (1) populations within the aforementioned age and income ranges and (2) statewide property taxes. The IFO projects that through 2024, the number Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdfcompared to other counties. • In general, rural counties had higher property tax burdens because those counties have relatively larger elderly populations and lower per capita income levels. For those counties, Social Security, pensions and savings income (e.g., IRAs) comprise a and Economic Development (DCED). Forest County was excluded from the map and tax burden rankings because over 40% of its population is institutionalized, which results in unusually low property tax and income levels. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Hits: 2 |
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdftaxes compared to other counties. • In general, rural counties had higher tax burdens because those counties have relatively larger elderly populations and lower per capita income levels. For those counties, Social Security, pensions and savings income (e.g., IRAs) comprise a and Economic Development (DCED). Forest County was excluded from the map and tax burden rankings because over 40% of its population is institutionalized, which resulted in unusually low property tax and income levels. Staff Acknowledgments This report was produced by Jesse Hits: 2 |
Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfcost containment efforts. Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 2 |
Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdfCPI-U 2.5% 1.2% 2.1% Payroll Job Gains (000s) -3.8 43.2 47.5 Rapidly Aging Population. First Baby Boomers turn age 65 in 2012. PA is 6th oldest state based on median age (40 force participation rates also climb for 65+. Impact on economy unclear. Productivity and wages lower? Decline in working age population. Demographic Takeaways 10.Feb.2017 6 PA Snapshot: 2015 to 2025 10.Feb.2017 7 Age Cohort Number of Residents Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdfhits in FY 2020-21 baseline no recession moderate recession -$9.8b severe recession -$13.8b slowdown -$3.7b PA Population Snapshots March 1, 2019 7 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2010 2017 2025 2010-17 2017-25 2010- 0.90 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Ratio: PA Payroll Jobs / Population Age 20-64 Age 20-69 2018 Pre-Recession Peak Note: Excludes self-employed. Payroll jobs include part- and full- Hits: 2 |
Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdfControl and Prevention and U.S. Social Security Administration. 2000-10 +1.9 years 2015-30 +1.8 years PA Population Change May 24, 2017 8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Change 27,561 9,484 9,227 1,339 U.S. and PA economic growth downshifts. Similar to Japan and Europe. Much due to normal aging of population. PA seniors working more. Dramatic increase in last decade. Trend accelerates since Great Recession. Senior spending Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdfinclude the following: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The act requires track progress towards goals, objectives and ultimate outcomes. Activities are the specific services an agency provides to a defined service population in order to achieve desired outcomes. Activity measures can take various forms: inputs (funding levels, number of employees), outputs (workloads Hits: 2 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdffollowing: outcome-based measures, efficiency measures, activity cost anal- ysis, ratio measures, measures of status improvement of recipient populations, economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. Most states require some form to goals and objectives, and therefore, ultimate outcomes. Activities represent specific services provided to a de- fined service population. The funding levels for an agency activity include all costs necessary to deliver those services: labor, benefits, operating and allocated overhead costs Hits: 2 |
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdfPennsylvania’s state incarceration rate increased between 2006 and 2016, even though the crime rate decreased. Significant reductions in inmate population in each of the last five years. One of the highest community supervision rates in the nation. No does not provide state funding for public defenders. County criminal justice systems vary significantly in terms of funding, staffing, populations served and workloads. January 22, 2019 9 Recommendations Enhance the reporting of comparative county criminal justice statistics (Criminal Justice Hits: 2 |
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf92 Labor Force (age 16+) Number (000s) 6,580 6,474 -105 Participation Rate 63.2% 61.8% -1.5% Population (000s) Age 18 to 64 7,917 7,777 -140 Age 65+ 2,362 2,537 +174 Note: Data not ECI Base Index Closing Comments March 16, 2023 16 Pennsylvania (and its public schools) face significant challenges ▪ Contracting working age population implies tight labor markets going forward ▪ 2019 to 2022: -131,000 (-1.7%) ▪ 2022 to 2025: -128,000 (-1.7% Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdfown tax base was calculated by pro- jecting national shipments of other tobacco products, then adjusting for the population of Pennsylvania. The e-cigarette revenue projection is based on historical collections and an inflationary adjustment for other tobacco products. 2014 2015 2) per capita sales for residents aged 18 or older. The forecast reflects the impact of income growth, population growth and higher market saturation. Various numbers games (Pick 2, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Wildball) are combined into a single Hits: 2 |
NAP-2018-03.pdf5) blight elimination, (6) veteran initiatives, (7) rural transportation initiatives or (8) affordable housing and supportive services for at-risk populations. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE NEIGHBORHOOD ASSISTANCE PROGRAM TAX CREDIT March 28, 2018 IFO | MARCH 2018 2 of an eligible contribution for area. Neighborhood Conservation – A project or service that addresses the decline of a neighborhood or the needs of a vulnerable population. IMPACT ON FEDERAL INCOME TAXES The award of a NAP tax credit in conjunction with a contribution to a qualified Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfalso has implications for state and local budgets and economies. The opioid overdose death rate (rate per 100,000 in population) has increased dramatically. (See table.) In 2015, Pennsylvania’s opioid overdose death rate was 11.2, up from 5.1 0 663 U.S. 6.8 10.4 33,377 1 Death rates are age-adjusted and per 100,000 population. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-07.pdfmajor snowstorms that occurred in 2016. Another factor in the recent per capita gain is due to Pennsylvania’s contracting population, which provides a temporary boost, but may restrain future economic growth. Since 2012, Pennsylvania personal income has grown at an may influence future personal income growth in Pennsylvania. Due to an increasing number of Baby Boomers retiring and a contracting population, it is possible that Pennsylvania’s growth in per capita personal income could moderate. Another factor is the sectors that Hits: 2 |
MER-2014-07.pdfthe net wage share of personal income is now almost three percentage points lower compared to a decade ago. If population growth is also factored into the analysis (0.3 percent), then per capita net wages (2.8 percent) have increased 0% $52.5 9.0% 3.6% Gov't Transfers $68.1 16.6% $114.7 19.6% 5.3% Population (000s) 12,374.7 n.a. 12,773.8 n.a. 0.3% CPI‐U 188.9 n.a. 240 Hits: 2 |
jackson ppt.pdfoff at state and local level as budget improves. • Federal level more at risk due to expected budget cuts. • Slow population growth limits job growth longer term, especially since service jobs are correlated with population. Longer-Term PA Employment Issues 23 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise Hits: 2 |
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdffor the underreporting of retirement income. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS). See Bee, Adam and Joshua Mitchell, “Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?” U.S. Census for FY 2022-23 and future years will depend on the growth in (1) the age 65 and older homeowner population with less than $150,000 of income and (2) statewide property taxes. 2 For FY 2022-23, the necessary tax Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdfprojected to abate. Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook is constrained by its demographics. A projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64) moderates economic growth. An increase in the 65+ cohort (14.7 percent through 2020) will (1) restrain tax revenues due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase healthcare and other expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. The Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdfannum. Pennsylvania’s economic growth over the next decade is constrained by the projected contraction of the working age population (ages 20-64). Demographic projections assume an increase of 32.2 percent in the 65+ cohort through 2025. The growth of tax revenues (personal income and sales) due to the changing income and spending patterns associated with an aging populace and (2) increase state expenditures associated with the long-term care of the elderly. Act 120 of 2010 created the Hits: 2 |
EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdfhow does PA compare to border states? Natural gas: how is the market doing? February 28, 2020 3 PA Population Snapshot February 28, 2020 4 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015- PA Demographics Cause Tight Labor Market February 28, 2020 6 Number of Residents (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Population Change -3.5 -2.6 5.4 13.3 1.1 16.7 1 Births less Deaths 8.4 9 Hits: 2 |
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdfhomeowner age and county. Due to the nature of the PUMS dataset, not all counties have individual computations. Several less- populated counties are grouped together (e.g., Armstrong and Indiana). Therefore, the data are presented in 38 county groups, which is and do not report such income. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS). See Bee, Adam and Joshua Mitchell, “Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?” U.S. Census Hits: 2 |
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf31, 2021 actuarial valuation. Under this new method, the resulting normal cost rate for the projected December 31, 2021 active population (consisting of a smaller proportion of Class AA members and a larger proportion of Class A-3 members than exists Group will project). Because we are comfortable that the “footprint rule” will apply to a relatively small percentage of the population of future hires, we do not feel that this approach will result in any material misstatement of costs. 4. Certain Hits: 2 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfduring the Commission’s public hearings was the apparent need for additional revenue. Tax increases are often controversial and rarely popular. Nevertheless, it is clear that significant additional revenue could be raised through increases in taxes and/or fees. All or pensions should be the “typical” employee and, if possible, a “weighted average” of pension recipients that reflects accurately the entire population of public employees (based on their years of service, age at retirement, date of retirement, etc.) Another very important point Hits: 2 |
2004_srpvffinal.pdfnumber of volunteer fire companies in the country, while accounting for less than 5 percent of the nation’s total population. In fact, according to information provided by the Washington D.C. based National Volunteer Fire Council, Pennsylvania has the largest in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The funds are allocated using a formula that distributes the state aid based upon municipal population and the market value of real estate in a municipality. As a result, there is no direct relationship between the Hits: 2 |
2002_drop_report.pdfpresents the Commission’s specific recommendations. - 1 - PART I BACKGROUND AND DISCUSSION Introduction Deferred Retirement Option Plans (DROPs) have been popular among public retirement systems since the early 1980’s. In essence, a DROP program is an optional form of retirement for retaining highly skilled and seasoned employees beyond the point at which retirement normally occurs. These plans have become increasingly popular among public safety employees and public educators, and are most frequently encountered among employers in southern states such as Texas Hits: 2 |
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 1 |
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 1 |
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 1 |
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 1 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 1 |
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient popula- tions, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar pro- grams of other states or jurisdictions Hits: 1 |
TC_2022_Brewers.pdfmeasures, and where applicable, the measures should reflect outcome- based measures (including efficiency measures), measures of status improvements of recipient populations, and economic outcomes or performance benchmarks against similar state programs or similar programs of other states or jurisdictions. The IFO Hits: 1 |
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdfnumber of aviation related exemptions, especially for aircraft parts and MRO services. The proximity of states and high population density facilitates interstate travel and commerce, which may be an important factor behind exemptions recently enacted in this region. These qualities allow Hits: 1 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdfHighlights ▪ Nationally, there were 6,831 living organ donors in 2018 (excludes bone marrow donations). Shared to Pennsylvania based on population, it is estimated that employers of as many as 250 living organ donors and an unknown number of bone marrow Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdfunderlying data described in the IFO’s Five- Year Outlook Report. Projected growth rates are a function of (1) service populations, (2) inflation and (3) various technical factors (e.g., an increased state share under the FMAP rate used to reimburse Hits: 1 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfBLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently released a brief (January 2021) using data from the Current Population Survey that provides some insight. For January 2021, that brief found that the unemployment rate for women was 9.5% Hits: 1 |
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdfgroups as they enter retirement. In 2012, residents age 65 or older comprised 16.0 percent of the total state population. By 2018, the share increased to 18.3 percent. Therefore, the changing age composition of total households will effectively increase Hits: 1 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdfto increase to 31% by FY 2020-21 due to (1) the rapidly expanding share of seniors in the state population and (2) the increase in seniors who elect to remain in their homes. Table 2 displays the estimate of SD Hits: 1 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf0.1% Note: Numbers in thousands. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. In Dec 2023, the Census released a 2023 PA population estimate of 12,961,000 but age detail were not included. Next release is Dec 2024. Forecast by IFO. PA Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfHigh- lights include: Instant Ticket sales, which include Fast Play, are projected to increase 3.0% as they remain popular with consumers, but there is downside risk due to continued competition from other games. Sales of iLottery are expected Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdfto 45 percent of funds allocated to states ($2.2 billion) for eligible large local governments (cities and counties with populations that exceed 500,000) and includes nearly $1.0 billion in grants administered by the Federal Transit Administration to support Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfHigh- lights include: Instant Ticket sales, which include Fast Play, are projected to increase 3.4% as they remain popular with consumers, but there is downside risk due to continued competition from other games. Amount Growth Amount Growth Total Lottery Hits: 1 |
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdfof such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS). See Bee, Adam and Joshua Mitchell, “Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?” U.S. Census Hits: 1 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdfof such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS). See Bee, Adam and Joshua Mitchell, “Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?” U.S. Census Hits: 1 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdfof such income during the year. Multiple studies have found that respondents underreport retirement income in the ACS and Current Population Survey (CPS). See Bee, Adam and Joshua Mitchell, “Do Older Americans Have More Income Than We Think?” U.S. Census Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdfself-employed. If an individual holds two jobs, they are counted twice.) This outcome reflects the impact of an aging population and on-going demand for dining out and social assistance services. For the first two months of the calendar year Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf2023 Q3 state-level data for the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) database. These data include the full population of firms that are part of the state unemployment insurance system and reflect jobs and wage data reported in monthly Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdffigures for FY 23-24 from DHS. Estimates by the IFO. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 The analysis separates enrollee populations based on the applicable FMAP. As of January 2023 (latest data), 3.70 million adults and children are enrolled in Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdfthat Pennsylvania exported 33.8% of the electricity it generated in 2022. Wyoming and West Virginia, states with much smaller populations and lower electricity consumption, exported a higher share of generation. The adjacent map shows 2022 net exports for Pennsylvania, border Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf74.8 -- 2,933 71.3 -- 3,803 Note: Per capita column equal to unfunded actuarial liability divided by state population. Excludes local pension systems. Source: The State Pension Funding Gap: 2019 and 2014, Pew Charitable Trusts. Table 3: State Pension Hits: 1 |
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdfcreate more stress on long-term care capacity and further exacerbate hospital discharge delays. These include: ▪ Pennsylvania’s older adult population continues to expand at a much faster rate than other age cohorts. From 2019 to 2023, the age 75+ cohort Hits: 1 |
PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdfcomputations. CY 2017 uses local tax data from FY 2016-17 and state tax data from FY 2017-18. PA Population Snapshot March 13, 2020 9 Number (000s) Change (000s) Avg. Growth Age 2015 2020 2025 2015-20 2020-25 2015- Hits: 1 |
Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdfdrive lower growth in expenditures: (1) SERS and PSERS employer contribution rates stabilize, (2) a contraction of the school age population restrains the growth of Pre-K-12 expenditures and (3) the aging of the Commonwealth’s workforce (high wage employees Hits: 1 |
press release - economic and budget outlook.pdfage 65 and over will increase by nearly 27 percent over this same period. A decline in the working-age population, combined with a dramatic increase in the elderly, will diminish tax revenues while placing additional pressure on Medical Assistance expenditures Hits: 1 |
Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf131 million (25%) in FY 2015-16. • PSERS up $592 million (51%, state share only). More Subtle: Rapidly Aging Population. • Age 65 and older expands by 14.9% through 2020. • Under age 65 contracts by -0.7% through 2020. 12 Hits: 1 |
Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf0 3.5 6.5 65+ 10.2 15.7 17.6 5.5 1.9 7.4 Sources: Current Population Survey and PA Department of Labor. +65 Age Cohort Reports Increasing Share of Income o Nearly 20% of all Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdfRate 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% # Unemployed (000s) 339 348 314 276 255 Total PA Population 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Age 20-64 -0.3% -0.4% -0.3% -0 Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdfdata for fiscal years 2013-14 through 2018-19: Actual expenditures Filled complement (salary and wage) Total population served and/or service levels achieved Performance measures 5 October 15, 2018 Initial List of Agency Activities 6 Hits: 1 |
PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf61 Labor Force (age 16+) Number (000s) 6,556 6,480 -76 Participation Rate 62.9% 61.8% -1.1% Population (000s) Age 25 to 54 4,897 4,860 -37 Age 55 to 64 1,838 1,736 -102 Age Hits: 1 |
Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdfdeficit of $300 to $500 million (excludes proposed severance tax) Future years: potential deficits likely grow due to aging population, rising interest rates and modest revenue growth 1 Impact of Federal Tax Reform on Pennsylvania Anticipate large increase in PA Hits: 1 |
PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf74.8 -- 2,933 70.7 -- 3,789 Note: Per capita column equal to unfunded accrued liability divided by state population. Excludes municipal pension systems. Source: The State Pension Funding Gap: 2018 and 2014, Pew Charitable Trusts. CreationDate: 2021-07-13 Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdfthe county level ▪ PA ranked 8 th highest in nation in 2020 at 4.0 overdose deaths per 10,000 population ▪ Average rates for 2016-18 vs 2019-21: 17 counties declined, 22 increased ▪ May indicate need for services exceeds available Hits: 1 |
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf2018 | per capita amount is $24.69 Considerably higher than most border states (PA relies more on fee) Population per PSAP highest of all comparison states Recommended metrics: avg. call answer time | calls re-routed incorrectly 75% of Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdfroll-your-own tax base was calculated by pro- jecting national shipments of other tobacco products, then adjusting for the population of Pennsylvania. The e-cigarette revenue projection is based on historical collections and an inflationary adjustment for other tobacco products Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfroll-your-own tax base was calculated by pro- jecting national shipments of other tobacco products, then adjusting for the population of Pennsylvania. The e-cigarette revenue projection is based on historical collections and an inflationary adjustment for other tobacco products Hits: 1 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdfroll-your-own tax base was calculated by pro- jecting national shipments of other tobacco products, then adjusting for the population of Pennsylvania. The e-cigarette revenue projection is based on historical collections and an inflationary adjustment for other tobacco products Hits: 1 |
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdf14 +0.2% Unemployment Rate 4.5% 3.5% -1.0 ppt --- Number Unemployed (000s) 266 198 -68 -25.5% Population (000s) Age 18-64 7,917 7,778 -139 -1.8% Age 18-69 8,687 8,600 -87 -1 Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_February_2020.pdfthe “balance of payments” and is influenced by factors such as the poverty rate (e.g., TANF and SNAP), elderly population (e.g., Social Security) and personal income levels across states. In FFY 2018, New Mexico was the state with the Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_November.pdfstrong growth for wholesalers (7.8%). Which U.S. Workers Have Received Real Pay Raises? An October analysis of Current Population Survey data by the website Governing finds that median (as opposed to average) real earnings for individuals with a bachelor Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_May.pdfshows bullish economic trends since the start of the year. The city accounts for roughly 12% of the total Pennsylvania population. Net job gains continue to increase at a faster rate than the nation as a whole and home sales increased Hits: 1 |
Newsstand_2018_August.pdfstudy compares data from 200 cities across nine different metrics. Pittsburgh ranked the most undervalued city due to its educated population and affordable housing. Philadelphia followed in second place due to its walkability and social scene. - August 2018 - National News What Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-03.pdfunchanged at 7%. Research by the FRBNY suggests that the changing composition of debt is influenced by (1) the aging population and associated change in consumer habits and (2) tighter underwriting standards that hindered loans to potential new homeowners. 3 March Hits: 1 |
MSC_March_31_2022.pdfof Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. All Age Groups Working Less March 31, 2022 11 PA Employment / Population Ratio by Age Group 56.0% 72.6% 76.4% 74.9% 60.9% 50.2% 66.4% 70.7% Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdfreleased its Report on Household Debt and Credit for 2023 Q3. The report includes per capita debt balances for the population of residents who have a credit report. Based on data for the third quarter, total Pennsylvania debt balances increased 3 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2023.pdfEmployment and Labor Force Participation Rate data are preliminary. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Current Population Survey and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Labor Market Indicators Monthly Data Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2023.pdfParticipation Rate data are preliminary. Pennsylvania Labor Market Indicators Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Current Population Survey and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly Data Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_4_2023.pdfEmployment and Labor Force Participation Rate data are preliminary. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Current Population Survey and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania Labor Market Indicators Monthly Data Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdfgrowth is the product of the growth in worker productivity and growth in the number of workers. While an aging population, contracting labor force and declining LFPRs reduce the long-term state economic outlook, productivity gains through business investment could more Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-06.pdfto compare the performance of states because it represents total economic output (adjusted for inflation) and controls for changes in population, which can vary widely by state. From 2007 to 2014, Pennsylvania real GDP per capita grew at an average rate Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-03.pdfrental market. March 2015 1. Sparshott, Jeffrey, The Wall Street Journal, April 2, 2015. 2. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey. 3. Drew, Rachel Bogardus, “Effect of Changing Demographics On Young Adult Homeownership Rates,” Harvard University (2015). 4. U.S Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-08.pdfand U.S. trends, per capita PCE data are used. This ren‐ ders a more meaningful comparison because changes in population are accounted for by using the per cap‐ ita Ðigures. In general, Pennsylvania and the U.S. ap‐ pear to Hits: 1 |
Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdfgrowth does not translate into spending growth. Recent demographic trends do not reverse. • Net out migration continues. • Lack of population growth. Data suggest material income shifting from 2016 to 2017. Factors That Restrain Revenues 7 02.May.2017 Income Hits: 1 |
IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdfchange Early retirements Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed Who Stopped Working? Not Just the Elderly November 16, 2021 4 PA Employment / Population Ratio by Age Group 62.9% 73.4% 77.1% 74.8% 61.2% 49.8% 64.8% 69.9% Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf0.2 0.1 0.0 Sources: The 2010 and 2020 data are from the U.S. Census Bureau 2020 Population Estimates with estimations by the IFO for the distribution of the age groups above 85 years old. The 2020 data Hits: 1 |
IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdfyears. There will be relatively fewer working-age residents to support the needs of rapidly expanding retiree and elderly populations. The contraction of the working-age cohort suggests that real per capita tax levels for that age group must increase Hits: 1 |
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdfRate 5.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 3.9% # Unemployed (000s) 339 348 314 276 248 Total PA Population 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Age 20-64 -0.3% -0.4% -0.3% -0 Hits: 1 |
House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf74.8 -- 2,933 70.7 -- 3,789 Note: Per capita column equal to unfunded accrued liability divided by state population. Excludes municipal pension systems. Source: The State Pension Funding Gap: 2018 and 2014, Pew Charitable Trusts. Author: Robyn Toth CreationDate Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2023_final.pdf0 0.0% -21 -0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Estimates and projections by the IFO. PA Older Adult Population November 15, 2023 4 Age Number Residents (000s) Change 2020-25 Change 2025-30 2020 2025 2030 Number Percent Number Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdfchange Early retirements Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed Who Stopped Working? Not Just the Elderly November 15, 2021 7 PA Employment / Population Ratio by Age Group 62.9% 73.4% 77.1% 74.8% 61.2% 49.8% 64.8% 69.9% Hits: 1 |
EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Forecast by IFO. All Age Groups Working Less March 4, 2022 5 PA Employment / Population Ratio by Age Group 56.0% 72.6% 76.4% 74.9% 60.9% 50.2% 66.4% 70.7% Hits: 1 |
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdfCare (+9k) and Social Assistance, Elderly-Disabled (+31k). Age data span from 2019 Q2 to 2023 Q2 (latest data). Employment / Population ratio assumes all workers are age 65 to 74. However, a small share of workers in this age category are Hits: 1 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf1% -0.3% -0.6% Age 65+ 0.8% 3.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% Total Population 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.1% Source: Data from the U.S. Bureau of Hits: 1 |
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdfthe highest property tax burdens (six of nine counties in the top group) because those counties have relatively larger elderly populations and lower per capita income levels. For those counties, Social Security and savings income (e.g., pensions and IRAs) comprise Hits: 1 |
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdfpercentage of GDP and then generally increase, particularly in the second half of the projection period. The aging of the population and the rising costs of health care boost primary deficits; net interest outlays, which double as a percentage of GDP Hits: 1 |
2024_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf209 Note: Figures in dollar millions. Fiscal impact includes wages, benefits and healthcare costs. Agreements with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. Budget Impact of Collective Bargaining Agreements CreationDate Hits: 1 |
2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdfself-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. All Age Groups Working Less January 31, 2022 8 PA Employment / Population Ratio by Age Group 56.7% 72.9% 76.3% 75.2% 60.7% 51.1% 66.6% 70.1% Hits: 1 |
2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdfDemographic Trends Cause Tight Labor Market January 28, 2020 6 Annual Change (000s) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Population -3.5 -2.6 5.4 13.3 1.1 -- Organic Growth 8.4 9.9 1.7 2.3 Hits: 1 |
2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf5 Note: Figures in dollar millions. Fiscal impact includes wages, benefits and healthcare costs. Agreements with missing figures will be populated when the contract summaries and data are received from the Office of Administration. The estimates for non-represented and management Hits: 1 |
2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdfweeks preceding the survey. Discour- aged workers are a subset of marginally attached workers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS) U3, 7.9 U6, 13.9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2003.4 2004 Hits: 1 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfFemales $5.00 State Payment 0 0 CHART VII Current (2006) Monthly Premiums Paid by Surviving Spouses for the Most Popular Benefit Option Pre-Medicare Eligible (e.g. Prior to Age 65) Medicare Eligible Pre-July 1, 2004, Retirement – Capital Blue Hits: 1 |
2001_hr266.pdfDefined benefit (DB) plans have been established in 8 every state, and defined contribution (DC) plans have become 9 more popular following the market strength of the last two 10 decades; and 11 WHEREAS, The features of DC plans make them Hits: 1 |