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Employment Opportunity

The IFO is accepting applications for employment from qualified candidates. See the job posting for further details.

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Employment Opportunity

The IFO is accepting applications for employment from qualified candidates. See the job posting for further details.

01/04/2022

2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

cost component of current and future employer contributions. This report is intended to provide no more than an overview of possible actions that the General Assembly could consider, and identify the most likely consequences of those actions. It is not an the increased liabilities of Act 9 of 2001; and amortizing the pre-Act 9 gains over 10 years and the post-Act 9 losses over 30 years. Employer contributions were artificially suppressed by that process. This was the genesis of the

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

Public School Employees’ Retirement System and the State Employees’ Retirement System, without whose cooperation this report would not have been possible. - 2 - OVERVIEW In recent years, much attention has been focused on the investment practices of public pension funds. For the Rankings” in Appendix III of this report for a list of companies identified by the SDTF as warranting scrutiny and possible sanction.) The limited nature of the targeted divestment approach may help explain its relative success to date, and most states

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

part as if he was an active member who performed creditable school service during the USERRA leave in the job position that he would have held had he not been on USERRA leave and received the compensation on which the member part as if the employee was an active participant who performed school service during the USERRA leave in the job position that the employee would have held had the employee not been on USERRA leave and received the compensation on which

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  review, the following conventions are noted:  The expenditure data and number of filled full-time equivalent (FTE) positions for each activity reflect the allocation of administrative and executive staff and funding resources to specific agency activities.  The FY 2019-

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  general 1.9 percent average annual growth over this time period. It should be noted that it is not possible to directly compare average annual correctional costs as state operating budgets may omit or include certain costs. For example, states differ in

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 120 132 Administration 106 88 90 95 82 79 Total 480 453 449 465 464 465 PDE Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Note: FTE stands for Full-Time Equivalent. Agency Overview | Page 4 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Budget Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity MA - Physical Health Services 190 199 186 184 162 162 County Child Welfare 61 68 76 77 74

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Actual 21-22 Budget Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Community HealthChoices 0 10 47 91 108 111 LIFE Program 5 5 4 4 4 3 FFS Long-

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Budget Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Business Attraction and Financing 68 65 64 62 65 66 Business and Workforce Assistance 0 1 1 1 1 1

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  Activity 8: State Athletic Commission .................................................................................. 25 Activity 9: Administration ................................................................................................... 27 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 29 Number of Licensees by Board and Position .....................................................................29 Performance-Based Budgeting and Tax Credit Review Schedule .........................................35 - This page intentionally left blank. - Background and Methodology | Page 1 Background and

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Budget Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Ensure Access to Care 202 203 222 191 196 212 Disease Prevention and Outreach 159 172 167 172 160 190

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  15-16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Budget Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Medical Assistance Eligibility 2,784 3,037 3,236 3,241 3,049 3,317 Eligibility and Enrollment Systems 303

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 891 Total 4,374 3,897 3,860 3,997 4,166 4,675 Average Weekly Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Positions by Activity Activity Primary Service 1 Unemployment Comp. Benefits..................... Provide income support to unemployed workers 2 Unemployment Comp. Tax Services

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  general local governments, law enforcement agencies and eligible non- profit organizations; recycling of used Commonwealth property and materials when possible.  Centralized warehousing for bulk materials, records, forms and publications as well as distribution and delivery services for state agencies.  Coordination

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

See pages 8 to 11 for details. Unfunded Liabilities By the end of the projection period (2048 valuation), the financial position of PSERS and SERS is projected to improve by $4.2 billion on a cash flow basis and $1.4 extends the shared-risk provisions applicable to current members in Classes T-E, T-F, A -3 and A-4 (post-Act 120 members) to new members electing a side-by-side hybrid in Classes T- G, T-H, A-5

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

a retiree may submit bills for payment that were not completely paid by Medicare or Medicare Supplemental coverage. To prevent possible coverage gaps, enrollment in both Medicare Part A and Part B is necessary. Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance) pays for whole for the following fiscal year. Generally, these standards require benefit plans and employers to disclose the cost of Other Post-employment Benefits (OPEB), such as health insurance, on an accrual basis. Pension benefits have been traditionally funded on an actuarial

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  provides loans to volunteer fire, ambulance and rescue companies, and coordinates state fire services. The agency also administers post- disaster aid to affected localities and citizens. Services Provided For this report, the services provided by PEMA and OSFC are classified into

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 28 28 Total 91 82 76 78 78 78 Note: FTE stands for Full-Time Equivalent. PDA Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity and Fiscal Year Agency Overview | Page 4 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 120.9 1,190.7 1,217.5 1,263.3 1,264.8 1,349.1 Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Traffic Enforcement and Crash Prevention 2,833 2,770 2,702 2,743 2,870 2,870 Criminal

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

include a recession because the purpose of the analysis is to provide insights into the long-term fiscal position of the Commonwealth and the associated structural surplus or deficit. By definition, a structural surplus or deficit reflects an economy that operates  The share of consumer mortgage debt that is delinquent remains at very low levels. Consumers appear well-positioned to service existing mortgage debt in the near term. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Sales Tax 2.7% 4

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 16 Actual 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Budget Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Highway and Bridge Construction 2,680 2,659 2,671 2,674 2,600 2,646 Highway and

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  general 3.8 Total 104.7 101.0 104.7 116.6 130.9 290.4 Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Criminal Justice System Improvements 6 6 5 5 6 7 Victim Services and Child Advocacy 37 34 32 38 44

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

and (2) compare Penn- sylvania’s existing impact fee and proposed severance tax with the severance taxes im- posed by other states. The computation of an effective tax rate (ETR) is useful for these purposes because it reduces the multiple factors estimated market value of natural gas extracted. While the metric relies heavily on this estimate, it is not possible to know with certainty the actual value received by extractors unless the infor- mation has been collected by state tax authorities and

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 45 45 45 Total 819 814 833 844 803 803 Note: FTE stands for Full-Time Equivalent. Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Agency Overview | Page 4 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  any proposed metrics that the review recommends 0.9 2.0 Total 35.2 34.3 38.3 44.4 38.4 49.2 Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity State Archives and Records Center 32 35 34 33 30 32 Historic Sites and Museums 75 74 76

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

data are only available with a lag because they utilize administrative data, and do not rely on surveys. It is possible that early retirements increased more significantly in 2021 compared to 2020 Q3. The very strong perfor- mance of the stock state share under the FMAP rate used to reimburse Medicaid costs or a shift in expenditures between funding sources). When possible, agency base year expenditures were disaggregated into five categories: (1) wages, (2) pensions, (3) employee healthcare and other benefits, (4

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

the IFO in December 2018. Primary responsibilities include state and local pension anal- ysis, retiree healthcare and other post-employment benefits and performance-based budgeting for agencies such as the Department of Community and Economic Development. Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II plastic products. •Pennsylvania's abundant supply of natural gas and proximity to major regional markets make it well-positioned to attract growth in the petrochemical manufacturing industry. Plastic Bag Manufacturers •Plastic bag manufacturers use molds and machinery to process the resins

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity; ▪ select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics; ▪ any proposed metrics that the review recommends; and ▪ observations 0.2 0.1 Total 287.3 309.7 308.7 322.3 340.6 397.8 Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Veterans Homes 1,892 1,876 1,848 1,831 1,829 1,889 Outreach to Veterans 28

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

stage filming requirements at a qualified pro- duction facility and is intended for a national audience. 1 Qualified post-production expenses incurred at a qualified post-production facility are also eligible for the higher 30 percent credit. Under current law, the maximum amount of credits that can be

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  general 26.5 Total 27.9 28.4 28.2 29.3 29.6 36.0 Average Weekly FTE Positions by Activity Depository Applications & Examinations 73 73 69 65 69 66 Non-Depository Licensing/Reg./Examin. 49 50 50 48 48 47

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Independent Fiscal Office

March 09, 2022 IFO presentation of Performance-Based Budget overview and agency highlights for the Pennsylvania Department of Education is posted on the website. ... (Full Report) Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment? News Stand & Other March 08, 2022 The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

does not include a recession because the purpose of the analysis is to provide insights into the long-term fiscal position of the Commonwealth and any potential structural surplus or deficit. By defi- nition, the determination of a structural budget surplus by various federal and state agencies. For a description, see the IFO Official Revenue Estimate Methodology released July 2020 and posted to the IFO website. -$40 -$20 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 wages -$5b business and capital -$8b retirement & savings +$6b

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

RESOLUTION NO. 266 -11- Resolution Objective No. 1 – Benefit Comparison “Projections of comparative benefits under the current DB plans versus possible DC plans and options using various demographic and financial scenarios to show the positive and negative impact of each plan while another member may retire early and receive a full benefit under an early retirement incentive program. But it is possible to provide some information on the percentage of entrants receiving and not receiving benefits. Assuming the historical data in Chart

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TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Credit Comparison ................................................................................ 11 Section 4: Economic Analysis ................................................................................................. 13 Key Assumption ............................................................................................................................ 13 Economic Impact........................................................................................................................... 15 Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 17 Other Possible Impacts Associated with JCTC .................................................................................. 18 Section 5: Tax Credit Plan ...................................................................................................... 19 General Findings ........................................................................................................................... 19 Specific Recommendations ............................................................................................................. 20 Key Decision Points ....................................................................................................................... 21 Conclusion want to lose the credit if they can’t find qualified unemployed individuals or veterans to fill the position(s). The net economic impact of the credit is too small to model formally. Research finds that roughly 95 percent of

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

and 2018 (latest year available, thousands of students). The first column displays the total number of students that enrolled at post-secondary institutions by the institution’s state. Pennsylvania ranked 5th among all states for total number of first-time, post-secondary students in 2010 and 2018, but the number of first-time students declined 17.8% (-25,603 students) during

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

an 8% increase in fiscal year CNIT collections due to the adoption of combined reporting. 8 In Rhode Island, a post-implementation study completed in 2018 estimated that combined reporting increased corporate tax revenues by 28%, or $37.8 million, after compared to the current minimum wage. Most job loss would occur through attrition over one or two years as vacant positions are not filled or departures are not replaced. ▪ Females would comprise 58% of workers who gain from the higher wage

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

historical data on active aircraft registrations across states. Per the policy of the IFO, this report will be posted to the office website three days following transmittal. The IFO welcomes any questions, comments or suggestions regarding the content and methodology of impact is from sales or leases, 15 percent from parts and 30 percent from MRO services. It is possible that some of the remittances included in the static revenue estimate would be retained under the exemption. However, it is also possible

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

to estimate a CNIT increase of approximately 20 percent due to the adoption of combined reporting. 12 A post-implementation study completed in 2018 estimated that combined reporting increased CNIT revenues by 28 percent, or $37.8 million after it became 2009 2007 24 - 28 8-10% Based on experience of other states. Rhode Island 2015 2018 38 28% Post-implementation evaluation. Connecticut 2016 2015 39 5% Kentucky 2018 2018 -- -- Unable to score revenue impact. New Jersey 2018 2016 115 - 280 5-

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

governmental units that have established such plans for volunteer firefighters; 3) solicit information from the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency on possible design considerations, including membership eligibility criteria for a cost-effective statewide volunteer firefighter retirement system that may aid in the either defined benefit (DB) or defined contribution (DC). Membership: # Members – Indicates the number of current active plan participants. Note: Where possible, membership data were derived from the most recent actuarial valuation or comprehensive annual financial report data available. Where this data

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

of the retirement systems. -viii- Current Nationwide Practice (Cont’d) DIRECT AMORTIZATION METHOD - provides for increased contributions to be made post-retirement as the scheduled amortization payments required to fund the COLA costs over a period of years commencing concurrently with This method was used in 16% of the retirement systems. DIRECT PAYOUT METHOD - provides for increased contributions to be made post-retirement as variable amounts equal to the annual COLA payments, resulting in the increased contributions commencing and ending concur- rently

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

implemented combined reporting for 2019 but were excluded from the analysis because data were not available for the post-combined reporting period. For states that enacted a rate reduction, revenues were adjusted for the rate change. West Virginia and Michigan also three ad- ditional factors to determine the appropriate base expansion parameter to use for the estimate: (1) pro- posed restrictions on the use of net operating losses (NOLs), (2) by FY 2023-24, the CNIT rate will have declined by 4

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

crimes related to public office or employment” when committed by a public official or employee through that individual’s public position or when that individual’s public employment places the individual in a position to commit the crime are: theft by deception, theft by extortion, theft of services, theft by failure to make required

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. 3 20 Independent Fiscal Office The annual ETR fluctuates calendar year, converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet ($2.20 for 2017) using Pennsylvania-specific heat content, net of post-production costs ($0.80). Prices are from BENTEK Energy. Post-production cost estimates are based on a Range Resources investor

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

math and reading from 2017-18 to 2018-19, the typical FTC student tended to maintain his or her relative position in comparison with all stu- dents nationally both in math and reading. It is important to note that these comparisons in the FTC Program. However, based on the available evi- dence, poor performance of FTC returnees cannot be associated with possible negative effects of the FTC Program on participating students. Given selection of students into and out of the FTC Program

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

project cap, assuming that the allocation process is changed from a lottery system to a scoring system. If possible, a fixed schedule should be used for credit allocation dates.  The regional allocation requirement should be relaxed. If desired, regional preferences tax credits because there are unique factors that should be included in the analysis. Unfortunately, it is not possible to quantify many of those factors, such as the preservation of state heritage or the impacts on local communities that manifest themselves

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions dedicated to the activity;  select currently available metrics and descriptive statistics;  proposed metrics that the review recommends; and  general 0.2 Total 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.1 Average Weekly FTE Positions Juvenile Justice System Support Services 24 23 23 22 21 22 Total 24 23 23 22 21 22 Personnel Cost/FTE ($ thousands

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post‐production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2016 uses these data 3,000 49,194,500  An annual average price of $1.55 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post‐production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

year. June 15 Provide a final revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and subsequent fiscal year. Other Services When possible, the IFO also provides economic and revenue analysis to members of the General Assembly. The office does not intend to IFO Reports and Analyses Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Page(s) The U.S. economy shows signs of a possible slowdown. 1 For 2015, Pennsylvania recorded solid job gains (+54,800) and very low inflation. 2 Relative to income, consumer

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2002_drop_report.pdf

legislation, DROPs created in Pennsylvania would conform to existing State statutes. While compatibility with State statutes in many states may pose no significant problem for municipal pension plans, non-conformance with Pennsylvania’s Municipal Pension Plan Funding Standard and Recovery Act or upon early termination from the IROP program. 9) The IROP participant, as a retired member, is eligible for all post-retirement benefits (post-retirement medical, etc.). 10) The IROP participant, as a retired member, is considered ineligible for any pre-

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf

PSP officers from underrepresented groups in 2020, small improvement from 11.2% in 2015 ▪ Share of underrepresented groups in leadership positions increased from 22.0% to 24.1% | Share of white males in leadership positions decreased from 28.2% to 26.8% ▪ Upper management positions held by officers from underrepresented groups in 2020: 14.4%

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Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2020 uses these data Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). • An annual average hub price of $1.43 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post-production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2019 uses these data of Environmental Protection (DEP).  An annual average hub price of $2.18 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post-production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2018 uses these data of Environmental Protection (DEP).  An annual average hub price of $2.70 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post-production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2017 uses these data Department of Environmental Protection (DEP).  An annual average price of $2.20 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post-production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

this report provides a review of the economic, demographic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position for the current fiscal year (FY 2011-12) and five subsequent fiscal years (FY 2012-13 to FY 2016-17 98 to FY 2016-17. 1 For tabular presentations, a fifteen-year window is used. Revenue and Expenditure Projections Whenever possible, the economic and demographic forecasts provide motivation for the revenue and expenditure projections contained in this report. However, in certain

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TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_Reclamation.pdf

require- ments include the licensure of the site operator, a National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit and a bond posted with the department. The bond provides assurance that site operations will not further degrade the environment, including wa- ter, soil Second Power Plant,” CoinDesk (August 3, 2021). 25 See “A waste coal-burning, crypto-mining pirate ship sets sail,” Pittsburgh Post Gazette (July 29, 2021). Also see the latest filing with the SEC that discusses operations: https://sec.report/Document/0001628280-

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

the RDTC is ineffective in promoting economic activity and employment growth in R&D intensive subsectors. It is possible that employment would have contracted in the absence of the RDTC. Given the data that are available, it is not possible to identify the true counterfactual outcome if the RDTC was not available, or had not increased from $40 million in 2008 to

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

royalty rate of 12.5 percent of the market value of the sale. 1 Some contracts allow firms to deduct post-production costs from gross revenues prior to the application of the relevant royalty rate. Post-production costs reflect various expenses incurred to bring the gas from the wellhead to the point of sale and include

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post‐production costs and (2) the total production of all unconventional wells. 3,4 The ETR represents an average for all increase is predominantly motivated by the sharp decline of natural gas prices (54.2 percent prior to the deduction of post‐ production costs). Endnotes 1. Data collected from Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s oil and gas production reports from 2011

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans pursuant to Act 100 of 2016. The office has filled vacant positions and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the normal cost represents the weighted average employer rate to pay pension benefits earned in that year for both pre- and post-Act 120 employees. The normal cost for post-Act 120 employees is approximately 3%, and the weighted average will decline

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans pursuant to Act 100 of 2016. The office has filled vacant positions and bolstered staffing to meet these obligations. Other functions of the IFO include the preparation of monthly reports on the normal cost represents the weighted average employer rate to pay pension benefits earned in that year for both pre- and post-Act 120 employees. The normal cost for post-Act 120 employees is approximately 3%, and the weighted average will decline

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2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post- production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2021 uses these data of Environmental Protection through October. • An annual average hub price of $3.15 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post-production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post- production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. The ETR computation for CY 2020 uses these data Environmental Protection through October.  An annual average hub price of $1.43 per Mcf, prior to the deduction of post-production costs. This price is a weighted average of spot prices at the Dominion South and Leidy trading hubs, converted

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Pensions

Assembly), known as "Class A-3," requiring all new members of the System, other than a member employed in a position for which a class of service other than Class A or Class AA is credited or could be elected, to return to service; 3) permit an annuitant to be employed by a public school or charter school in an extracurricular position performed primarily outside regular instructional hours and not part of the mandated course curriculum without being subject to the cessation

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

states film incentive. Section 3: State Comparison | Page 11 employee’s state of residence) and include part and full-time positions. California ranked highest, with 21.1 percent of national employment for this subsector. The next largest states were Washington (15 relationships between the higher education institutions and the video game industry so that new and growing companies can fill open positions with qualified talent from within the state. 14 14 Current California law allows a partial (5.25%) sales tax exemption

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website after the final estimate is released. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and relative to the prior year.  The administrative-waste management sector contracts by 36,900. Many of those positions are with firms that supply temporary workers.  The arts-entertainment sector contracts by 34,000. This sector includes movie theaters, casinos

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Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf

for workers who do not retain or secure employment due to the policy change. The analysis estimates that 34,100 positions would be eliminated through a combination of layoffs, a slower pace of hiring and leaving vacant positions unfilled. The wage income reduction for those workers is $363 million. The bottom portion of the table presents the same

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

may not reflect total income for individuals employed at multiple jobs, or who held multiple gig economy or self-employment positions. For example, roughly 60% of all PUA claimants reported annual income of less than $10,000. PUA claimant income may it may not affect the amount received, the claimant may have only reported the loss of a single part-time position, but may have lost multiple positions that were not reported. 14 These changes are reflected in worker productivity gains published

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RB-2019-01.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional spot price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. 4 Independent Fiscal Office 2 The annual ETR fluctuates calendar year, converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet ($2.70 for 2018) using Pennsylvania-specific heat content, net of post-production costs ($0.80). Prices are from BENTEK Energy. Post-production cost estimates are based on a Range Resources investor

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

The market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. 3 Independent Fiscal Office 2 The annual ETR fluctuates calendar year, converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet ($2.20 for 2017) using Pennsylvania-specific heat content, net of post-production costs ($0.80). Prices are from BENTEK Energy. Post-production cost estimates are based on a Range Resources investor

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

the product Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 2 of (1) the annual average regional price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production of all unconventional wells. 3 The ETR represents an average for all wells calendar year, converted to dollars per thousand cubic feet ($1.56 for 2016) using Pennsylvania-specific heat content, net of post-production costs ($0.87). Prices are from BENTEK Energy. Post-production cost estimates are based on a Range Resources investor

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

economic forecast showed researchers how the agency’s various models interact. 8 CBO To let researchers replicate its results, CBO posts the computer code for some analyses. For example:  Code for CBO’s estimates of maximum sustainable output allows researchers reports and other studies. For example, along with its April 2018 report on the budget and economic outlook, the agency posted files containing the following information:  Historical data  Spending projections by budget account  Revenue projections by category, along

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

market value is equal to the product of (1) the annual average regional hub price of natural gas net of post-production costs and (2) the total production from all unconventional wells. 5 The annual ETR fluctuates based on the movement the IFO. 1 Production data through October 2019. November and December 2019 are estimated by the IFO. 2 Net of post-production costs, which were estimated to be $0.80 by the IFO. 3 Does not include natural gas liquids. Thousands

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

from legalization of recreational marijuana. Emergency Department Visits The table below displays emergency department (ED) visits and/or admissions for possible marijuana exposure for Colorado, Oregon and California. All three states reported an increase in marijuana-related visits after recreational marijuana calls were regarding those age 21 and older (increasing from 50 to 144). State Emergency Department Visits Colorado Visits for possible marijuana-related indications increased from 739 per 100,000 in 2010-2013 to 913 per 100,000 from January 2014

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

to reflect the various attributes of the state tax system in a single tax rate. In practice, it is not possible to compute such a summary metric and it can only be noted that certain provisions tend to increase or decrease compare CNIT revenues across states are the ratio of revenues to (1) state personal income and (2) state population. If possible, an analysis would want to compare CNIT revenues to actual profits attributable to a state. However, state-level profits data

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Pensions

not be subject to withholdings of the employee or employer share of the pension plans. Dictates that employees in these positions that opt ... read more SB 622 Summary • Public Safety Employee Benefit • Retirement Eligibility 779 Pittman Would allow for commissioned police Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) to stream board meetings live for public access, and post unedited video and records of those meetings online and to retain them online for three years, and maintained internally for

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

The income tax credit is $1,000 or $1,500 for an employee that fills a newly created position. 11 If an economi- cally disadvantaged employee is hired, the credit increases to $6,000 or $9,000 per employee. The latest life cycle of firms within the program or their viability upon exit. Without these data, it is not possible to quantify the long-term economic impact of this program in a reliable manner. However, it is appropriate for the economic impact

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf

similar proposals in prior years that were reviewed by the IFO. The last review was released in April 2021. Where possible, this year’s analysis updates the April 2021 analysis if new data exist. Comparison to Other States As of January the analysis also found a large increase in inequality for all workers in 2016 and 2017. The author offers several possible explanations for this secondary outcome, including an unrelated shock to demand for very high-skilled labor due to a strong

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

delivery May 26, 2021 14 Personal Income Tax Withholding growth appears to accelerate despite minimal hiring ▪ Data very preliminary | not possible to assign gains to certain workers Annual payments much stronger than last fiscal year ▪ Up ~+17% (adjusted for shifts) ▪ Likely Economy Reverts to Former Path… But Not Jobs May 26, 2021 20 Tax Revenues ($ millions) Pre-COVID FY 18-19 Post-COVID FY 21-22 Avg Growth or Change General Fund Tax Revenue $34.06 $37.26 3.0% Corporate Net

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

Waiver Demonstration Project, (3) the possibility of reliance on other federal funding streams, apart from Title IV-E and (4) possible access to transition funding for programs still under consideration for inclusion in the Family First Clearinghouse. This letter transmits the on evidence-based programs rated well-supported? The requirement that 50 percent of expenditures be used for well-supported programs poses a challenge for states with a county- administered system. In order to draw down federal dollars, the state and counties

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

Proposed Severance Tax 6.5% 7.6% Note:Analysis assumes prices range from $2.60 to $3.50 per mcf. Post production costs assumed to be 87 cents per mcf in 2018 and increase with inflation. PA proposed severance tax disallows deduction for post-production costs. Source: Analysis of Revenue Proposals, IFO, April 2017. Minimum Wage Impact on PA Employment June 7, 2017 21

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to contact@ifo relative to the prior year.  The administrative-waste management sector contracts by 29,300. Many of those positions are with firms that supply temporary workers.  The arts-entertainment sector contracts by 31,600. This sector includes movie theaters, casinos

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

to prior analyses ▪ ~640,000 non-tipped workers make < $12/hr ▪ Smaller potential loss in jobs (mostly not filling vacant positions) ▪ Moderate gains to General Fund revenues CNIT Proposal: Broaden Base and Phase in Reduced Rate March 31, 2022 8 Broaden Production data from DEP, in billion cubic feet. 3 Weighted average of spot prices at major PA hubs. Net of post-production costs, assumed to be $0.80 per mcf based on investor presentations for several regional producers. 4 Does not

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IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf

score once temporary timing issues have been reflected in the estimates. Therefore, the IFO will now assess whether it is possible to use the REMI model to estimate the dynamic impact of that proposal. As noted in the previous response letter, if it is not possible to directly model the impact of the proposal, then the IFO may use the impact from a general corporate net

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IFO ppt.pdf

18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Five–Year Outlook Report • Report and presentations will be posted on website: www.ifo.state.pa.us • Modeling is simple and transparent. – Projections motivated by economics and demographics. – Focus on ending June 30. January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Personal Income Tax • Long-term – possible erosion of the tax base as working age population declines and the number of seniors increases. • Short term – weaker than

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Cigarette +3.2% All Other Tax +1.6% Personal Income - Withholding -1.0% turned positive in Q4 Inheritance -3.4% possible delayed filings Personal Income - Other -6.4% small business income, better than expected Total Tax Revenues +2.9% Note: YOY Short-term factors  Likely some payments made on PPP loans  Payroll tax shift to 2021 and 2022  Possible shifting in anticipation of tax rate increase (e.g., TCJA of 2017) Long-term factors  Corporations have likely increased

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

goals? How can they be improved? November 16, 2017 3 Our Guest Speaker Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable Trusts Current Position: Senior Manager  Economic development tax incentives project.  Ensure tax incentives are effective, accountable and fiscally sound.  Work of state (but data very preliminary). Retirement surge has important implications.  “Churning” reduces growth of total wages paid.  Possible contraction of labor force. But participation rates increase. No signs of “brain drain” or strong elderly inflow.  Recent data

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About IFO

Office of Tax Analysis working paper series. Brenda Warburton Deputy Director Prior to joining the IFO, Ms. Warburton held several positions related to state budgeting and tax policy and administration in the commonwealth, including executive deputy secretary for the Office of statistical and economic data analysis on a very broad range of subjects including Earned Income Tax Credits, K-12 and post secondary education, health care and state pension benefits. Ms. Maynard holds a M.A. in Economics from Penn State University

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

of the Payroll Tax Cut Impact the PA Economy and Tax Revenues? Director’s Note: The following text discusses the possible economic impact from a policy under consideration by the U.S. Congress. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) does not support or oppose any policy discussed on its website. Rather, analysis posted on this website is intended to inform readers of potential outcomes based on available data and research. The IFO welcomes

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TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf

and sells tax credits through a directed or negotiated sale. Announcement of specific bid criteria, application and application timeline are posted on PHFA’s website (www.phfa.org). PHFA can modify the bid process and may establish a minimum bid requirement description of expenditures in the prior calendar year. The annual report is due on or before July 1 and is posted on the agency’s website. The administration of the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit requires input from various PHFA staff

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

separate report that describes the methodologies used to pro- duce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website after the final estimate is released. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are used those funds to pay down credit cards. Auto and student loan debt grew moderately. There is general concern regarding possible asset bubbles in the stock and housing markets due to the large volume of borrowed federal monies that have been

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf

in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.” A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate ind_fisc_office. Sign up at www.ifo.state.pa.us/EmailSubscr.cfm to be alerted by email when new documents are posted to the IFO website. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2016-06-15 18:21:05 Creator

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods and data used ind_fisc_office. Sign up at www.ifo.state.pa.us/EmailSubscr.cfm to be alerted by email when new documents are posted to the IFO website. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-06-15 19:38:23 Creator

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods and data used ind_fisc_office. Sign up at www.ifo.state.pa.us/EmailSubscr.cfm to be alerted by email when new documents are posted to the IFO website. Contact: Matthew Knittel, 717-230-8293 # # Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2014-06-16 18:20

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website after the final estimate is released. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and higher wages paid to new employ- ees by employers who have found it more difficult to fill vacant positions. These conditions are partly driven by a contracting working age cohort between the ages of 20 and 64. Demographics data show that

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PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf

above the assumed rate by 1 percentage point (ppt) or more over specified look-back periods.  For new employees, possible 0.75 ppt increase/decrease in employee rate every 3 years; up to 3 ppts cumulatively.  Dollar-for-dollar to generate $1.5 billion in actuarial savings over 30 years. 6/28/2017 9 Thank you Presentation to be posted at IFO website. www.ifo.state.pa.us 6/28/2017 10 Author: Mark Ryan Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-06-

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

continue to work. Delay retirement. o Lost Wealth? But trend starts before recession. o Insufficient savings? Longer life spans?  Possible Skills Gap if Older Workers Comprise Larger Share of Workforce? 12.June.2014 13 Trend: Aging of Workforce 12.June value-added industries. 12.June.2014 25 Wrap Up 12.June.2014 26 Questions/Discussion Thank you Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Lauren Mondschein CreationDate: 2014-06-19 20:03

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

outlook.  FY 2016-17 revenue shortfall.  Moderate growth rate projected for FY 2017-18. 7/14/2017 3 Post-Recession Budgets The 2008-2009 U.S. financial crisis significantly affected subsequent budgets.  Federal ARRA funds cushioned the impact short-term measures does not alter the fundamental long-term trend. Thank You! 7/14/2017 31 Presentation to be posted on the IFO website www.ifo.state.pa Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

available monies from special funds.  Acceleration of revenue or deferrals of expenditures.  Loans or short-term revenue boosts. Post-Recession Budgets 10.Feb.2017 3 November 2016 IFO Report 10.Feb.2017 4 15-16 16-17 17-18 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Personal Income Sales School Property 10.Feb.2017 28 Questions/Discussion Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Author: Lauren Mondschein Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-02-09 18:13:57

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

of available monies from special funds. • Acceleration of revenue or deferrals of expenditures. • “Snap‐back” as one‐time measures expire. Post‐Recession Budgets 8.Jun.2016 4  About $1.6 billion of short‐term measures used in FY 2014‐15 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

10% 15% 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 Non-Wage Total Withholding fiscal cliff possible tax cuts Annual Growth Rates Gross Receipts Tax Revenues 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 Electric to spend and invest?  Do corporate profits rebound? Looking Forward May.01.2018 27 Final Estimate June 15 Presentation posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Questions/Discussion May.01.2018 28 Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Lauren Mondschein

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

time measures to close the gap.  What will legislature enact? Various long-term demographic concerns.  Declining birth rates. Possible contracting labor force. Policymakers should consider recession scenarios.  Surveys: recession more likely than not next three years.  Will federal government be able/willing to assist states? March 1, 2019 26 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

projected supplementals. Source: FY 2018-19 Executive Budget. Updated amount is an IFO estimate. June.12.2018 20 Final Estimate Posted June 18 Presentation posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Questions/Discussion June.12.2018 21 Author: Lauren Mondschein CreationDate: 2018-06-

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

less than 0.1%. PDE General Fund Appropriations (FY 2021-22) March 9, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 to perform a longitudinal analysis that tracks outcomes over time across all school districts March 9, 2022 6 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

and other.  Actual spending vs. appropriations.  Actual FTEs vs. authorized complement.  Allocate overhead costs to activities when possible.  Show all relevant funding sources per activity.  Five-year history on “actual spend” basis. Note: FY 2018-19 benchmarks.  Many must be constructed from scratch.  Meaningful benchmarks require research due to differences. Leverage other research when possible.  Could include academic studies and program evaluations from other states. Incorporate feedback from PBB Board and others.  How

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

RDTC and KIZ ▪ Gross ROI and net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ GDP | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Key : incentivization parameter | use consensus of existing research January 23, 2020 3 Organ Tax Credit Recommendations Make credit refundable for 95 cents per dollar ▪ ~25% credits sold for 93-94 cents per dollar | possible 5% transaction fee ▪ Potential leakage: ~$1.6 million ▪ Simplifies administration | helps small firms | reduces cost to state Address credit oversubscription

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

income tax return must report on a separate company basis for Pennsylvania corporate net income tax (CNIT) pur- poses. Multistate firms apportion net income using market-based sourcing rules and a 100 percent sales factor. Transfers None. Exemptions All pass-through equipment. Exemptions from com- mercial operator license fees include military personnel who operate commercial vehicles for military pur- poses, firefighters or emergency squad members who operate various emergency vehicles and drivers operating farm equipment. Methodology The FY 2019-20 estimates are

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

income tax return must report on a separate company basis for Pennsylvania corporate net income tax (CNIT) pur- poses. Multistate firms apportion net income using market-based sourcing rules and a 100 percent sales factor. Transfers None. Exemptions All pass-through equipment. Exemptions from com- mercial operator license fees include military personnel who operate commercial vehicles for military pur- poses, firefighters or emergency squad members who operate various emergency vehicles and drivers operating farm equipment. Methodology Vehicle Registration and Titling: The FY

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to contact@ifo reflect higher wages paid to new employees by employers who have found it more difficult to fill vacant positions. These conditions are partly driven by a contracting working age cohort between the ages of 20 and 64. Demographics data show that

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

Production data from DEP, in billion cubic feet. 3 Weighted average of spot prices at major PA hubs. Net of post-production costs, assumed to be $0.80 per mcf based on investor presentations for several regional producers. 4 Does not only and excludes indirect jobs supported by the industry such as independent contractors. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us / Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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MRU_2021_01.pdf

2.1 million, 11.1 percent) collections. Other miscellaneous revenues are higher than usual due to a $15.0 million posting this month that offsets a negative posting that occurred in November 2020 related to repayment of loan principal under the PA First program. Monthly Revenue Update January

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Both economic and technical factors are cause.  Inflation, business spending and consumers. No public presentation.  But will be posted to IFO website. 25.Jan.2017 2 IFO Mid-Year Update 25.Jan.2017 3 Annual Growth Rates or Change lower than the official estimate certified by the governor in July. 25.Jan.2017 25 Questions/Discussion Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Author: Lauren Mondschein Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-01-26 14:11:04

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

separate report that describes the methodologies used to pro- duce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to used those funds to pay down credit cards. Auto and student loan debt grew moderately. There is general concern regarding possible asset bubbles in the stock and housing markets due to the large volume of borrowed federal monies that have been

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ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

sample paid < 3%.  Eight-year revenue loss from this gap: $126 billion The Future of State Corporate Income Taxes Post-TCJA: ???  New territorial tax system with international anti-avoidance measures. Effectiveness unclear.  Federal collections plummeting (until they’re not) post-TCJA  Hard to know how much is temporary/permanent  Similar problems at state level. Can observe collections, but

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast.  General weakness. All forecasts underperform.  An exception: PA labor market posts solid gains.  Recent U.S. data confirm weak PA trends: 2017 Q1 Real GDP +0.7% growth, +0.3%  March-April CNIT estimated payments up +13%. Recapitulation 21 02.May.2017 Updated Estimate Mid-June Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Questions/Discussion 22 02.May.2017 Author: Lauren Mondschein Company: Microsoft CreationDate

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IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf

Employment Opportunity Independent Fiscal Office Analyst The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is accepting applications to fill an analyst position. The IFO is a non-partisan, independent agency created to provide objective and timely analysis to the General Assembly and fiscal, economic and budgetary issues. (See 71 Pa.C.S., Ch. 41 to read the statute creating the office.) The position entails full-time, professional work in fiscal analysis. An IFO analyst: 1) compiles, organizes, analyzes and forecasts data relating to

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IFO_ Job_Posting_Jan_2022.pdf

Job Posting – Independent Fiscal Office The IFO is accepting applications for employment. Qualified applicants should have a bachelor’s degree in a is commensurate with education and work experience and may range from $55,000 to $80,000 depending on those criteria. Positions include full health and pension benefits, and work remotely 3 days per week (parking included for workdays in office). Interested

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

to 2026-27 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director November 15, 2021 Welcome to the Annual Five-Year Outlook Report to be posted at IFO website at end of presentation Both presentations run ~45 minutes – questions at end Purpose: provide assessment of long- wage-price spiral that further broadens inflation ▪ No major stock or housing market correction November 15, 2021 21 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us November 15, 2021 22 CreationDate: 2021-11-15 14

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

and older, and many of the deaths occurred in individuals with underlying health conditions. Due to these factors, it is possible that a portion of the COVID-related deaths have occurred in individuals that may have otherwise passed away due to death and migration rates continue at roughly the same rate as projected in the near-term projections. However, it is possible that birth, death or migration rates could change substantially in the long term due to factors such as changing economic

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

and many of the deaths occurred in individuals with underlying health conditions. Due to these factors, it is possible that a portion of the COVID-19-related deaths have occurred in individuals that may have otherwise passed away due to age migration rates continue at roughly the same rate as projected in the near-term projections. However, it is possible that birth, death or migration rates could change quite substantially in the long term due to factors such as changing economic conditions

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

June 15 Provide a final revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and the succeeding fiscal year. Other Services When possible, the IFO also provides economic and revenue analysis to members of the General Assembly. The office does not intend to 1 for Word ModDate: 2014-02-10 18:41:47 Producer: Adobe PDF Library 10.0 Title: Front Section - for posting.pdf

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Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf

property is $73 million (33%). It should be noted that these amounts are likely upper-bound estimates, because it is possible that some school districts that would have used the exception instead raised property taxes relatively more within the bounds of do not hesitate to contact my office (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office CreationDate

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

www.ifo.state.pa.us Monthly Economic Report M a y 2 0 1 3 who would prefer full-time positions, are accepting part- time positions. In this way, underemployment offers a better representation of slack in the labor market. The graph below shows the Pennsylvania

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

June 15 Provide a final revenue estimate for the current fiscal year and the succeeding fiscal year. Other Services When possible, the IFO also provides economic and revenue analysis to members of the General Assembly. The office does not seek to 25% 50% 13 The Pennsylvania Economy and Revenues – Key Forecast Risks Federal fiscal issues arising in the near future could pose significant upside or downside risks for the Pennsylvania economy. These issues include sequestration (early March), the expiring continuing resolution (late

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2001_hr266.pdf

study and 28 report on the following: 29 (1) Projections of comparative benefits under the 30 current DB plans versus possible DC plans and options using 20010H0266R2371 - 3 - 1 various demographic and financial scenarios to show the 2 positive and negative to either a DB or DC plan, including any liability 18 for poor investment performance in a DC plan and possible 19 contract impairment issues. 20 (5) An analysis of any changes in the fiduciary 21 responsibilities and duties of the

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Pensions

Early Retirement Benefits Early Retirement Windows Employee Contributions Employer Contributions Fiduciary Responsibility Investments Membership Provisions Miscellaneous Normal Retirement Benefits Portability Post Retirement Adjustments Post Retirement Medical Public Safety Employee Benefit Retirement Eligibility Return to Service Service Credit Purchase Service Credit Transfer Studies Survivor Benefits

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

30, 2016 required the Office of Administration to conduct a job study to determine the appropriate pay scale group for positions covered under the PDA contract. The study produced an upward revision to wages, but that change was not implemented prior

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

brewers, small brewers cannot fully use ▪ Coal Refuse – Mixed, some coal burning incentivized, depends on price ▪ Educational – Minimal data, not possible to reliably assess Credits do not include a formal economic impact analysis ▪ Economic activity and jobs creation not primary goal

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TC_2022_Brewers.pdf

2020, likely because the volume of credits generated could not be used over the four-year utilization period. It is possible they will file another return as those credits expire. For 2020, brewers at the maximum $200,000 credit received nearly

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

Tax Credit seeks to improve water quality by reducing nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment pollution through BMPs. Currently, it is not possible to quantify the impact of the REAP Tax Credit due to lack of data regarding the impact from nonpoint-source

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

demographic factors such as consistent unemployment, school dropout and public assistance dependency. Areas deemed distressed for NAP Tax Credit pur- poses include: Enterprise Zones, Keystone Opportunity Zones, Keystone Communities, Keystone Main Streets, Keystone Community Enterprise Zones and Act 47 Municipalities. For

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

That modest economic impact is included in the economic impact shown in lines 16 to 20. 19 It is not possible to distinguish between recipients that were or were not incentivized by the tax credit. Therefore, an average effective tax credit

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

the transplant hospital for a period immediately after discharge if follow up care is required. These pre- and post-donation visits can increase the financial burden on a donor. Although some studies attempt to accurately capture the average financial burden imposed

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

effectiveness per location connected (this “reverse auction” approach ensures that funds are spent in the most efficient manner possible); and (5) provides for project evaluation by an organization other than the one implementing the program (prevents bias in project selection). Projects

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Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdf

January 24, 2019 9 Tax Credit Summary Need better data on the true share incentivized.  Administrators are in best position to track data. Aggregate dollar caps should be retained.  Limits state financial exposure. Administration generally good; but some concerns

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptx

award. January 24, 2019 9 Tax Credit Summary Need better data on the true share incentivized. ▪ Administrators are in best position to track data. Aggregate dollar caps should be retained. ▪ Limits state financial exposure. Administration generally good; but some concerns. ▪ Speed

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TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdf

January 24, 2019 9 Tax Credit Summary Need better data on the true share incentivized.  Administrators are in best position to track data. Aggregate dollar caps should be retained.  Limits state financial exposure. Administration generally good; but some concerns

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SR2017-06.pdf

analysis. While the survey measures currently approved homestead properties, there may be additional properties that qualify as homesteads. It is possible that some qualified property owners have not filed applications to receive the homestead designation, and the number of such properties

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Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf

Various state agency websites. Table 5: College Assistance Programs 2 Loan forgiveness programs available for graduates working in public service positions. Includes both private and government programs. 3 New York and Utah also offer loan forgiveness programs for working residents who

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RTR-2015-01.pdf

for the month. Some of the increase is attributable to distributions from the clearing account ($21 million) that were initially posted to that account in December. Corporate net income tax collections have been strong as three-month revenues increased by $85

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RTR-2014-10.pdf

by $112 million (3.3%) over the prior fiscal year-to-date. Withholding, which comprises the majority of these revenues, posted one, three and twelve-month growth rates of 4.0%, 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Nonwitholding revenues increased by

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

million. These amounts exclude the proposed statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

 Businesses undergo transformation | teleworking and automation  Higher worker productivity = fewer employment opportunities October 29, 2020 15 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us October 29, 2020 16 CreationDate: 2020-10-29 16

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05-Presentation.pdf

to the economy, lower productive capacity  Non-financial wealth eliminated | labor force shrinks May 26, 2020 21 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Use Zoom chat or Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us May 26, 2020 22 CreationDate

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Revenue Trends Report - August 2012.pdf

the motor vehicle portion declined (-12.5%).  Deposits from personal income tax employer withholding increased (1.9%). The decline posted for the most recent three month period (-1.7%) is affected by the timing of remittances.  Realty transfer tax

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Revenue Trends Report - April 2013.pdf

attributable to payments made with annual returns, which increased by $211 million (27.1%). Employer withholding and quarterly estimated payments posted only modest gains.  Sales and use tax collections displayed continuing weakness, declining by $25 million (-3.2%). Nonmotor vehicle

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REU-2019-12.pdf

a $18.1 million shortfall for the month, offsetting the motor vehicle overage. For the year, total SUT collections are posting a shortfall of $38.6 million. Monthly PIT collections missed the estimate by -$47.9 million, largely due to lower

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REU-2019-11.pdf

2019 Economic Trends  The Pennsylvania unemployment rate ticked upward again in October, but wage growth remains strong.  After posting declines in June, July and August, Pennsylvania monthly net job gains (annualized) have held steady in the most recent three-

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office Attachments

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Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf

do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office September 30

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Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 5

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Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 3

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director Author: Jesse Bushman Creator

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Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew Knittel Director September 12, 2019 Page

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Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office

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Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf

please do not hesitate to contact me (717- 230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. PPP Detail: Loans by Size, Type of Firm and Sector The SBA publishes state-specific data on its

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RB-2017-5.pdf

state and (3) corporations can carry losses forward from prior tax years to reduce current payments. Hence, it is not possible to make general observations regarding the responsiveness of state corporate net income tax revenues to contemporaneous economic conditions. This fact

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RB-2015-02-annual_vs_lifetime_ETR.pdf

tax rate, but also the impact of any special provisions on tax liability. This document provides a description of two possible effective tax rates and some related definitions. Statutory Tax Rate – The rate of tax specified in the statute that authorizes

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PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf

in the (1) statewide average weekly wage or (2) sales tax. 1/19/2017 14 Thank you Presentation to be posted at IFO website. www.ifo.state.pa.us 1/19/2017 15 Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-02-13 14:59

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

policies,” Knittel said. The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. On a current-policy basis, the analysis finds that expenditure growth has the potential to

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is to provide general data and background. • With the exception of

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

of transfers made in July from various funds. $109 relative to Admin. forecast one-time payment $80 liquor store profits possible weakness 3.Dec.2014 FY 14-15 Revenues Remain Unclear Description Amount Gains Through November Relative to IFO Estimate $135

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

front, or over several years? 12.Feb.2015 Wrap Up 23 12.Feb.2015 24 Questions/Discussion Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Lauren Mondschein CreationDate: 2015-02-13 12:55

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role tonight is to provide general data and background. • With the exception of

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

2 March 8, 2018 School Property Tax Update New Forecast, Including Homestead Property Background on Property Tax and Discussion Regarding Possible Replacement Options Challenges for Replacement: Growing vs. Declining Districts School District Revenues; FY 2015-16 Source Amount Percent Property Tax

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

is a nonpartisan, independent agency that provides analysis of fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  The IFO does not take positions on issues, proposals or policies.  Our role today is to provide general data and background. • With the exception of

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 first Baby Boomers turn age 65 possible labor force contraction number turning age 65 number turning age 15 2015 PA Labor Force Participation Rate Age 65+ 18

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Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf

cannot pass all costs forward to consumers. 10% Lower Turnover and Higher Productivity  Greater job satisfaction. Eliminate least productive positions. 5% Non-residents (exporting and tourism) May 1, 2019 11 Projected Price Impact (2018) May 1, 2019 12 PA Economy

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

dollars. Points of Emphasis Various long-term demographic concerns.  Declining birth rates. General aging of the state population.  Possible contraction of the labor force. Large increase in projected deficit next fiscal year.  Assumes no one-time measures are

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

court decisions, federal funding impacts, formula requirements, constituent pressures). 15 October 15, 2018 16 October 15, 2018 Presentation to be posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson State Office Building Second Floor

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

2-3 years.  Many analysts project recession for 2020. August.08.2018 25 Wrapping it Up Presentation to be posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 Capital Gains, Net Profits, Dividends Total Annual Growth Rates Withholding federal election: possible tax cuts fiscal cliff June.04.2018 10 IFO Initial Revenue Estimate FY 18-19 Change or Growth Amount Dollar

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PICA_Presentation_2020_11.pdf

loan forbearance  Expiration of extra/special federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits November 18, 2020 9 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us November 18, 2020 10 CreationDate: 2020-11-17 21

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

less than 0.1%. PDE General Fund Appropriations (FY 2021-22) January 26, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdf

VGP ▪ Gross ROI vs. net ROI (deducts alternative use of monies) ▪ Output or spending | labor earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Keys: incentivization parameter, “leakages” and “injections” April 26, 2021 2 Some Notes on

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PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf

overhead costs  As opposed to appropriated (spending) and authorized (FTEs)  As close to a cash flow concept as possible  Spending and FTEs itemized based on activity | not line item  Activities: What services does the agency provide? January

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

economic events. Consistent with the IFO’s mission, the office does not make policy recommendations and this report will be posted to the office website no later than three days following transmittal. The IFO welcomes any questions, comments or suggestions regarding

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

vs. renters.  Working vs. retired.  Growing vs. contracting school districts. 19.May.2017 Summary 26 Presentation to be Posted on IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us 19.May.2017 Questions/Discussion 27 Author: Lauren Mondschein Company: Microsoft CreationDate

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PA_Chamber_June_17_2021.pdf

exceeds 2019 w/ ~250,000 less workers What are implications for General Fund revenues? ▪ Should we expect a deceleration or possible contraction? June 17, 2021 1 Federal Monies to Pennsylvania June 17, 2021 2 CY 2020 CY 2021 Total Federal Pandemic

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PA_Assoc_of_Community_Bankers_Presentation_2020_12.pdf

loan forbearance  Expiration of extra/special federal UC support: PUA and extended benefits December 9, 2020 9 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us December 9, 2020 10 CreationDate: 2020-12-09 14

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

re-release projection in fall  Good estimate for 2021 wage growth at that time March 17, 2021 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us / Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

certain construction equipment. Exemptions from com- mercial operator license fees include military personnel who operate commercial vehicles for military pur- poses, firefighters or emergency squad members who operate various emergency vehicles and drivers operating farm equipment. Methodology The FY 2020-21

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06-Presentation.pdf

to the economy, lower productive capacity  Non-financial wealth eliminated | labor force shrinks June 22, 2020 20 Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us June 22, 2020 21 CreationDate: 2020-06-23 15

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to our website. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome and can be submitted to contact@ifo.state

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Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

jobs). The seasonally adjusted year-over-year increase was 41,600 jobs (pre-revision) and grew to 55,500 jobs (post-revision) com- pared to 2018. Natural Gas Production Decelerates Recent data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) show that

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Newsstand_2018_October.pdf

were as follows: 2016 (0.0%), 2017 (0.3%) and 2018 (2.0%). - October 2018 - National News U.S. Treasury Posts $779 Billion Deficit for FFY 2018 On October 15, the U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement showed an official federal

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Newsstand_2018_November.pdf

union membership, less willingness to relocate for job-related reasons and domination of the labor market by larger firms as possible reasons. IFO NEWS STAND A monthly glimpse at the state of the economy Author: Tessa Dorr CreationDate: 2018-11-20

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Newsstand_2018_December.pdf

53%. In real terms (controlling for inflation), home prices are up nearly 40%. The article notes that it is not possible to know when the boom will end, but there are signs of weakness in the current market as leading indicators

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NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf

25 16 17 23 25 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Notable Allocations ○ Hazard/premium pay – 6 states ○ Funding pandemic-related positions – 7 states ○ Vaccine Incentives – Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Nevada ○ Food banks and insecurity - 13 states ○ Childcare grants to business, relief

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MTR-2017-12.pdf

as many taxpayers likely remitted payments early to qualify for the uncapped state and local tax deduction. It is also possible that some taxpayers overpaid their tax liability because the overpayments are currently deductible, but the same payments may not be

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

personal income growth in Pennsylvania. Due to an increasing number of Baby Boomers retiring and a contracting population, it is possible that Pennsylvania’s growth in per capita personal income could moderate. Another factor is the sectors that will realize job

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MTR-2017-03.pdf

consumer debt surpassed its 2008 level ($395 billion) in 2011 ($399 billion) and has grown by 2.5% per annum post-recession. This represents a more rapid rebound compared to several nearby states that have only reached their pre-recession levels

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

confident in the economy and are willing to spend instead of save. However, very recent revenue data from June suggest possible weakness in Pennsylvania. June sales and use tax revenues declined (-1.1%) year-over- year, while personal income tax (PIT

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MTR-2015-08.pdf

forces have contributed to consolidation in the banking industry. First, the financial crisis left smaller banks in a weaker financial position, and therefore open to acquisitions by larger banks. Second, in response to the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve required banks

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2021_Final.pdf

low-income seniors do not need to file a tax return if they fall below income thresholds. Hence, it is possible that the data miss migration patterns of low-income seniors. Third, the data include tabulations by income group and total

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

legal age to consume tobacco (raised from 18 to 21 in 2019) and new federal restrictions on e-cigarette flavors. Possible reasons for stronger than expected cigarette and tobacco sales include: increased stress, unregulated breaks and remote working. Pennsylvania Private Employment

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

1.3%. 28.Jan.2015 26 FY 2015‐16 Revenue Outlook 28.Jan.2015 27 Questions/Discussion Presentation to be Posted at IFO website www.ifo.state.pa.us Author: mryan CreationDate: 2015-02-02 18:43:37 Creator: PScript5.dll

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MGMT Nonrepresented Wage Contract.pdf

do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three business days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office

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MER-2015-03.pdf

that rental housing is both less affordable and accessible to Pennsylvanians with low incomes, and becoming more so. 5 One possible reason is the large influx of individuals into the rental market, due to declining homeownership rates. Therefore, Penn‐ sylvanians aged

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MER-2014-01.pdf

it would ap‐ pear that the Commonwealth’s labor market is Ðinally recovering. However, the labor news is not all posi‐ tive. The BLS also reported that the number of non‐ farm, seasonally adjusted jobs for December was down 11,400

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Memo-2019-03-Income-and-Property-Tax-Burden-for-Retirees.pdf

respective state. Table 6 FYE 2016 Long-Term Liabilities by State Notes: dollar amounts in millions. OPEB stands for Other Post-Employment Benefits. 1 Pew “50-State Survey of Retiree Health Care Liabilities“, Figure 4. 3 Individual State Pension System Reports

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Like-Kind_Exchange_Analysis.pdf

have deducted most of the vehicle cost under IRC Section 179 or utilized 50 percent bonus depreciation, and it is possible that the firm has little or no cost basis left only a few years after the original purchase. A firm

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

The page numbers refer to the final report issued on March 1, 2017. The IFO’s original submission has been posted to the IFO website. Pages 64 and 68 Original sub-section headings were changed without consultation. Page 72 Table 12

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jackson ppt.pdf

put it on a credit card) adding to job losses, among other things. PA Faring Better than US During and Post-Recession 7 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Tuesday, May 26 Time: 10:00 AM R SVP Here Please

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter at www

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2022.pdf

The presentation will review and discuss recent and projected economic trends that impact General Fund revenues. The report will be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Date: Monday, May 23 Time: 1:30 PM RSVP Here Please

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. www.ifo.state.pa.us Creator: Canva Producer: Canva CreationDate: 2021-05-

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

report that describes the methodologies used to produce the various revenue estimates included in this report will be posted to the office website after the final esti- mate is released. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are welcome

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

itself in the final payments over the coming months. Pennsylvania Economy The state economy seems to be in a good position, with the latest Philadelphia CPI-U reading running low (0.8% in December), jobs growth strong (roughly 60,000 net

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IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf

do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230- 8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office CreationDate

Hits: 1

IFO_Response_Letter_April_12_2022.pdf

do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website three days after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office Attachment

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

Act 1 Index elevated through at least 25-26. Wages revert in CY 2023. November 16, 2021 12 Presentation is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us November 16, 2021 13 CreationDate: 2021-11-16 17

Hits: 1

IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf

do not hesitate to contact my office (717-230-8293). Per the policy of the IFO, this letter will be posted to the office website after transmittal to your office. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office cc: Kelly O

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

50% 51% -- -- -- Independent Fiscal Office 20 February 2022 PBB - Tax Credit Evaluations PBB - Tax Credit Evaluations Educational - Minimal data, not possible to reliably assess Coal Refuse - Mixed results, some coal burning incentivized, depends on price Brewers' - No, windfall to large brewers

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

year, we typically receive a number of requests from members of the General Assembly for economic or budgetary analysis. Whenever possible, we work with members to craft a response that will be informative and useful. If reliable data are available for

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IFO-RTK-Request-Form.pdf

Address (optional) Request: Please provide as much specific detail as possible so the Open Records Officer can identify the requested information. Print Form Author: rjones CreationDate: 2011-10-06 19:57:11 Creator: Acrobat PDFMaker 8.1 for Word ModDate: 2019-

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

mobile businesses  Tax rates, exemptions, tax credits, loans, subsidies, grants, abatements November 14, 2019 3 Guest Presentations Guest presentations posted separately November 14, 2019 4 Four Critical Assumptions PA Labor force expands despite decline in 20-64 year olds 

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center. 

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

included interstate comparisons and the computation of relevant economic metrics, such as net jobs created and return on investment. When possible, the IFO intends to compute similar performance metrics for all tax credits so that policymakers can compare outcomes across the

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

7% 4.1% 2.0% 10.Jul.2012 9 2012 GPNP Conference Other Reports and Analysis  Office will be posting regular reports and analysis.  Monthly Economic Update (later this month).  Legislative Requests: Property Tax Proposals (late September). 

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

 Ph.D. in economics from Rensselaer Polytechnical Institute  Over three decades experience analyzing state/local fiscal issues. Previous positions: • State Budget Crisis Task Force, Executive Director • New York State, Director of Economic and Revenue Analysis • New York State, Assembly

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

three fiscal years.” The report considers the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that may affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal position over the next five years. Projections are made on a current-law and current-services basis. Major findings include: 

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

concerns ▪ Declining birth rates | Contracting labor force ▪ Rapid growth age 80+ (healthcare costs accelerate) March 4, 2022 30 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

recovery ▪ Estimated amounts for PA: $7.3 billion (state) and $5.8 billion (local) February 19, 2021 29 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

Fund = $340 million  Recommended: 5% ($1.8b) or 2 months operating ($6.0b) February 28, 2020 22 Questions Presentation posted on the IFO website http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/ Follow the IFO on Twitter @ind_fisc_office Independent Fiscal Office Rachel

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

GDP growth. IFO Combined Reporting vs. Separate Reporting Analysis Background ▪ A difference in differences analysis was used to estimate the possible corporate net income tax (CNIT) base expansion as a result of enacting combined reporting. ▪ Eleven control states that did not

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

2019 estimated by IFO. Effective Tax Rate (ETR) equal to Impact Fee revenues divided by market value of gas (excluding post-production costs). 3 Royalties from the leasing of Commonwealth lands ($ millions) based on month gas was produced, not month payments

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

millions. PIT is personal income tax. Adjusted growth rate controls for a $2.19 billion one-time transfer. Report is Posted to IFO Website Questions? Submit to contact@ifo.state.pa.us January 31, 2022 22 CreationDate: 2022-01-31 15

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

rate controls for extra Wednesday deposit date in FY 20-21. Things to Watch in 2020 Will stocks continue to post gains?  Continued disconnect with profits  PE ratio high by historical standards  China impact | election uncertainty Recent uptick

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

look at FY 18-19. Public presentation later today.  Rachel Carson Building at 2:30.  Presentation to be posted to IFO website. 29.Jan.2018 2 Welcome to the IFO Mid-Year Update Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018

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Pensions

public regarding the financial and actuarial effects of legislation under consideration. All actuarial notes issued by the IFO will be posted on this page. The actuarial notes issued by the former Public Employee Retirement Commission (PERC) also will be listed. Actuarial

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Pensions

Retirement Systems (1989) Study of Method for Setting Employer Contribution Rates to Optional Alternate Retirement Programs (1984) Cost-of-Living Post Retirement Adjustments for Municipal Police Officers and Municipal Firefighters (1984) Recommendation of Actuarial Funding Standards and a Recovery Program for

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Email Subscription

Email Subscription IFO • Latest Releases • Data • Calendar • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Email Subscription The IFO sends emails periodically to alert subscribers to new studies or reports that have been posted to the website. To begin receiving emails, please fill out the following form and click on the "Submit" button. Name

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