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Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use $53.0 billion in General Fund revenues (2.7%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, psers

Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, psers

Summary and Analysis of Annual psers Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (psers) recent stress test report. Based on psers’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-52, the Commonwealth will use $53.0 billion in General Fund revenues (2.7%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of assumptions.

02/28/2024

Inflation's Impact on Earnings and Pensions

This research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-psers annuitant.

07/31/2023

Summary and Analysis of Annual psers Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (psers) recent stress test report. Based on psers baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2023-24 to FY 2050-51, the Commonwealth will use $46.5 billion in General Fund revenues (2.3%) for the state’s share of public school employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

03/01/2023

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the psers state share

11/16/2017

ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

transmittal includes attached cost notes and supplemental letters prepared by Conduent, actu- ary for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and Korn Ferry Hay Group, actu- ary for the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). The proposal amends the retirement codes 8 to 11 for details. Unfunded Liabilities By the end of the projection period (2048 valuation), the financial position of PSERS and SERS is projected to improve by $4.2 billion on a cash flow basis and $1.4 billion on

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

30, 2007) National Conference of State Legislatures – Appendix III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 “Sudan Company Rankings” Sudan Divestment Task Force – Appendix IV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 PSERS and SERS Correspondence with Companies Doing Business with Sudan -v- Table of Contents (Cont’d) Part VI. Appendices (Cont’d The Terrorism Investments of the 50 States” The Center for Security Policy – Appendix VI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Companies held by SERS and PSERS which may be Targeted for Divestment (at June 30, 2007) – Appendix VII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 House Resolution No. 263 (2003 Legislative Session

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

the late 1990s, the investment earnings of the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) were such that the plan actuaries determined that employer contribu- tions were unnecessary, resulting in the suspension of employer contributions of government pensions and the reforms that may prevent the recurrence of this situation. SERS as of 12/31/11, PSERS as of 6/30/11. The Keystone Pension Report, Governor’s Office of the Budget, 1 November 2012, p. 7

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

are mandated to be members of either the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) or the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS). (Certain State employees may elect not to participate in SERS, while certain employees in public schools and higher education institutions may elect membership in an employer approved alternative retirement plan rather than PSERS membership.) As of June 30, 2001, there were 243,311 active members and 132,716 annuitant members of PSERS, and

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

has provided COLAs to retired members of the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) every four or five years beginning in 1968. Method of Implementation Ad Hoc - All of the prior COLAs were provided of payroll COLA contribution rate (approx. 0.3%) as an ongoing component of the employer contribution rates of SERS and PSERS in order to pre-fund a portion (25%) of the costs incurred in the provision of future COLAs. The Commission

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PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf

Act 128 of 2020 amended Title 24 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes to require the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) to conduct an annual stress test of the system and submit the results to the Governor, the General Assembly and are from various sources. The simulations and related data are from the report entitled Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement System: PSERS Stress Test- ing Analysis produced and certified by PSERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using

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PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf

Act 128 of 2020 amended Title 24 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes to require the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) to conduct an annual stress test of the system and submit the results to the Governor, the General Assembly and related data are from the report entitled Stress Testing Analysis: Pennsylvania Public School Employees’ Retirement System produced and certified by PSERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections are from the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s mid-

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Pensions

902 ). Signed into law on June 12, 2017, Act 5 amends Titles 24 and 71 to provide new members of PSERS and SERS with three retirement benefit options. The new plan designs would be applicable to most public employees hired by school or state employers beginning July 1, 2019 (PSERS) or January 1, 2019 (SERS). The new plan options include two “side-by-side” hybrid retirement plans and a third

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 7/15/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive & retired) 233,734 609,776 Fund Assets $27.2 billion $53.3 billion 10-Year Average

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 4/11/2016 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (excludes inactive) 229,714 479,643 Fund Assets $25.8 billion $51.7 billion 10‐Year Average Funding

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

Fiscal Office.  Snapshots of the major state pension plans: • State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). • Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS).  Useful terms in the pension debate: • Defined benefit plans. • Act 120, rate collars and annual required contribution (ARC). • Unfunded this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 3/26/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive & retired) 231,633 609,776 Fund

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Pensions

Budget and Finance Committee to conduct a study on the viability of an early retirement proposal for both SERS and PSERS. The analysis must include: (1) the potential cost savings if the early retirement option was offered in one-, five-, and 32 Summary • Miscellaneous 0092 Muth Would require the State Employees; Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) to appear in front the House and Senate Appropriations Committees on an annual basis. ... read more SB 58 Summary • Survivor

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

Those categories comprise roughly ninety percent of total General Fund expenditures. Pension Contributions include the Public School Employee Retirement System (PSERS) and the State Employee Retirement System (SERS). Those projections are based on data published in the PSERS and SERS annual financial reports (actuarial section). Due to the significant growth in contributions, this report removes projected SERS pension

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

1 and 5.2 provide detail based on department and expenditure category. Notable trends include:  SERS and PSERS contribution growth rates continue to moderate after many years of significant growth. From FY 2019-20 to FY 2024-25, the average growth rate of SERS contributions is esti- mated to be 4.1 percent per annum while PSERS is 3.5 percent per annum.  Pre-K to Grade 12 expenditures grow modestly due to contraction of the school age

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

Act 5 of 2017: For both state systems, the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS), the act established three new retirement classes (six total) for new employees hired on or after January 1, 2019 (SERS) or July 1, 2019 (PSERS). In lieu of traditional defined benefit plans, Act 5 established two hybrid defined benefit and defined contribution plans and a

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18 Historical Spot Prices 19 Impact Fee Research Brief 20 PSERS and SERS Trends Employer Contribution Rates 22 Decomposition of Employer Rates 23 Change in Employer Contributions 24 Funded Ratios for PSERS and SERS 25 Miscellaneous Materials Property Tax Projections 26 State Minimum Wage Levels 27 State Corporate Tax Rates and Other

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

FY 2022-23 is $1.37 billion (3.5%), primarily driven by the following: ▪ The Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) projects growth in both employer contri- bution rates and school employee wage growth. The estimated increase in the state General and 5.2 provide detail based on department and expenditure category. Notable factors not mentioned above include: ▪ The SERS and PSERS contribution growth rates continue to moderate or decline after many years of significant growth. From FY 2022-23 to FY

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

category. Notable factors not mentioned above include:  The State Employee Retirement System (SERS) and Pennsylvania School Employee Retirement System (PSERS) contribution growth rates continue to moderate after many years of significant growth. For FY 2022-23 to FY 2025-26, the average growth rate of SERS contributions is estimated to grow modestly at 0.8 percent per annum while PSERS per annum growth rate is 5.1 percent. The increase in FY 2021-22 is due to the use of

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

is much lower than U.S. average. 15 Pension Outlook The SERS employer contribution rate flat lines after 2018, while PSERS increases modestly. 16 If actuarial assumptions are met (e.g., rates of return), unfunded liability will be $67.6 billion 20% -0.22% 0.08% 0.28% (16) For FY 2017-18, the projected employer contribution rates are 32.6% (PSERS) and 31.7% (SERS) of payroll. The projections assume the following rates of return: 7.25% (PSERS) and 7.5%

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

is much lower than U.S. average. 15 Pension Outlook The SERS employer contribution rate flat lines after 2018, while PSERS increases modestly. 16 If actuarial assumptions are met (e.g., rates of return), unfunded liability will be $67.6 billion 20% -0.22% 0.08% 0.28% (16) For FY 2017-18, the projected employer contribution rates are 32.6% (PSERS) and 31.7% (SERS) of payroll. The projections assume the following rates of return: 7.25% (PSERS) and 7.5%

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

Expenditure Type Wages 1 $2,829 $3,105 $3,308 $3,496 $3,614 $3,736 $3,864 Pensions (SERS/PSERS) 3,725 4,006 4,168 4,291 4,414 4,547 4,700 Healthcare/Benefits 2 853 879 1 51,467 Growth Rates Wages 1 9.8% 6.5% 5.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Pensions (SERS/PSERS) 7.5 4.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.4 Healthcare/Benefits 2 3.0 22.1 4

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE To: Matthew Knittel, Director From: Mark J. Ryan Subject: Updated Projections for the State Share of PSERS Employer Contributions Date: December 12, 2017 On December 8, 2017, the Board of Trustees of the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) certified an employer contribution rate of 33.43 percent for the fiscal year (FY) 2018-19. The certified rate is

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, IFO (November 2017). March 8, 2018 Pension Update Act 5 Impacts on PSERS Employer Contributions and Normal Cost Minor Short-Term Effect Long-Term Risk Mitigation Act 5: Employer Contributions Change 30 $(100 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. Source: Cost note prepared by Conduent (PSERS’ actuary). Timing shift for defined contribution payments Savings increase as Act 5 employees comprise a greater share of the workforce

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

Gas: U.S. and PA Consumption .............................................................................. 17 2018 Impact Fee Estimate ...................................................................................................... 18 Pension Systems Data ............................................................................................................... 20 Employer Contribution Rates for PSERS and SERS ...................................................... 21 Funded Ratios for PSERS and SERS .................................................................................... 22 Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................................. 23 Corporate Net Income Tax by State .................................................................................... 24 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB

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index.cfm

the implications of a recent QCEW data release for state payroll jobs data. ... (Full Report) Summary and Analysis of Annual PSERS Stress Test Report Pension Analysis February 28, 2024 Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the Public School Employees Retirement System’s (PSERS) recent stress test report. Based on PSERS’ baseline projections, the IFO projects that from FY 2024-25 to FY 2051-

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PSBA Webinar - IFO - Act5_Actuarial.pdf

57% 6/28/2017 2 Note: the employer normal cost rate is a blended rate across all benefit classes. Source: PSERS’ June 30, 2016 actuarial valuation. Lower Normal Costs Under Act 5 Statute Benefit Classes Employer Normal Cost Note Act 120 listed benefit classes. Excludes the defined contribution-only plan. DB is defined benefit and DC is defined contribution. Sources: Conduent (PSERS’ actuary). Blended rates for Act 5 were computed by the IFO based on data from Conduent. Annual Change in Employer

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

Budget Outlook Slide 21 15.Nov.2012  Decline in under 20 age cohort affects enrollment.  Substantial growth in PSERS obligations.  Higher Education funding increasing by 2% per annum. Trends ($ millions) 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 0.3% -0.3% Higher Education 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% PSERS/SERS 601 858 1,222 1,605 1,999 2,130 2,256 Basic Education Subsidy 7,082 7,137

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

19 Property Tax Data ....................................................................................................................................... 20 Natural Gas Production and Spot Prices ............................................................................................ 21 Natural Gas Price Trends ($/mmbtu) ................................................................................................... 22 SERS and PSERS Employer Contributions Rates and Funding Ratios ...................................... 23 SERS and PSERS Financial Data .............................................................................................................. 24 Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................................................. 25 PA Workers Affected by a $12 Minimum Wage (2018) ................................................................ 26 States

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf

million prepayment in unfunded liability from the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. State Pension System Funding Outlook SERS 1 PSERS Note: Dollars in millions. Data sourced from various system projections, releases and financial reports, unless noted otherwise. For year ranges Includes $1.1 billion prepayment in unfunded liability from The Pennsylvania State University. Independent Fiscal Office 19 March 2023 SERS PSERS Total SERS PSERS Total Five Years -$0.24 -$0.29 -$0.53 $0.23 $0.25 $0.48 Ten Years

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS and PSERS. The act requires both systems to conduct prescribed stress testing of their systems. The IFO will compile those data in contributions to projected state revenues. August 19, 2021 1 State Pension System Funding Outlook August 19, 2021 2 SERS 1 PSERS FY Ending Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability 2005-10

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

22-23 growth 3 years Notes Personnel Costs Wages $2,988 $29 $93 Wage contracts expire June 2023 SERS and PSERS $3,980 S&P 500 down 13% for YTD Healthcare $999 $9 $31 Program Costs K-12 Education $11,111 increases assumed growth rate by 1 ppt each year over 3 years. Amount is extra spending in third year. SERS-PSERS and Debt Service are excluded because the short-term impact of higher inflation is less clear. 4 Inflation Erodes Real

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ....................................................................... 16 State and Local Tax Burden: Average Tax Rate and Rank ........................................ 17 SERS and PSERS Financial Data ............................................................................. 18 Tax Credit and Economic Development Incentives ................................................... 19 Minimum Wage Rates by State .............................................................................. 21 PA Worker Distribution by 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Basic Education Funding Special Education Funding PSERS (State Share) Other $12,801 $13,243 $13,748 $14,378 $14,437 $16,221 $12,103 Independent Fiscal Office

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

3.4% Corrections 1,963 2,059 2.6% 4.9% Debt 1,128 1,111 2.8% -1.4% PSERS 1,719 2,064 48.5% 20.1% SERS 665 787 24.8% 18.4% All Other 2,882 2,943 3.3% 2.1% General Fund $30,127 $31,766 3.3% 5.4% Note: millions of dollars. PSERS is Public School Employees’ Retirement System and SERS is State Employees’ Retirement System. Source: IFO Five-Year Outlook Reports and

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2001_hr266.pdf

plans. 5 WHEREAS, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania maintains two 6 Statewide pension plans, the Public School Employees' Retirement 7 System (PSERS) and the State Employees' Retirement System 8 (SERS); and 9 WHEREAS, Nearly all full-time and part-time public school 10 employees are required to join PSERS and most full-time and 11 part-time State employees are required to join SERS; and 12 WHEREAS, Both systems

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RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf

Pennsylvania workers and pensions received by annuitants of the State Employees Retirement System (SERS) and Pennsylvania School Employees Retirement System (PSERS). The first table reproduces the methodology used by the BLS to compute the growth of U.S. real average hourly public pensions because they are not indexed to inflation. The second table illustrates the impact for the average SERS or PSERS beneficiary who was retired in 2020 after achieving full benefits. The average annual benefit earned was $30,050 for SERS

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PSEA Wage Contract Analysis- 2020.pdf

of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Pennsylvania State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit. The analysis uses the following parameters and data obtained from the state accounting system as of used to offset the incremental costs that result from the agreement. The turnover factor (-2.60 percent) is based on PSEA workforce data for the past ten fiscal years, and the analysis assumes these trends would continue during the years covered

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

Recurring Savings, Shifts and Revenues. • Used in FY 2014-15. Not available next fiscal year.  Pension Contributions: SERS and PSERS. • SERS up $131 million (25%) in FY 2015-16. • PSERS up $592 million (51%, state share only).  More Subtle: Rapidly Aging Population. • Age 65 and older expands by 14

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PSEA_Wage_Contract_Analysis_2023.pdf

of that obligation. The analysis considers the recent collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Pennsylvania State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers Unit. (See Table 1 and Methodology on the last page.) The analysis uses the following parameters and 2024 step increase, multiplied by the 3.75% GPI. Table 1 Analysis of Collective Bargaining Agreement Pennsylvania State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers 1 Annual savings from the replacement of high-wage senior workers with less experienced lower wage workers

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

0% 20.5% 31.1% -$75 -$55 -$35 -$15 $5 $25 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 PSERS SERS PSERS SERS Unfunded Liability (billions) Employer Contribution Rate Sources: Actuarial valuations for PSERS and SERS, various years. Pensions Share of GF

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

9% 0.2% 0.3% -0.4% Debt 2.8% -1.4% 0.8% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% PSERS 48.5% 20.1% 9.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% SERS 24.8% 19.0% 8.3% 0 Pensions: Employer Contribution Rates 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 PSERS SERS Act 5 of 2017 Act 120 of 2010 2018 Unfunded Liability ~$67 billion Assumed Rate of Return: 7.25%

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IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf

with the impacted systems. Impacted systems could include: • The State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) • The Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) • The Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement System (PMRS) • County and Municipal Governments The IFO contracts with certified actuaries who work on its IFO. The IFO currently contracts with two actuarial firms: 1. Milliman: Reviews proposed changes to state pension systems (SERS and PSERS) 2. Foster & Foster: Reviews proposed changes to municipal pension systems The IFO, at its discretion, may also contract with other

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House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf

County August 30, 2021 4 Rate of Return Sensitivity Analysis for State Pensions August 30, 2021 5 SERS Employer Contributions PSERS Employer Contributions Fiscal Year Underperform ROR by 1.0% Exceed ROR by 1.0% Underperform ROR by 1.0% Exceed 2026-27 579 -676 1,031 -946 Total $2,773 -$3,247 $5,042 -$4,624 Note: Millions of dollars. PSERS includes both state and local school district contributions. Sources: Submissions supplied by SERS and PSERS in accordance with Act 37

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

have historically increased at a rate that exceeds inflation. The second largest appropriation is the Pennsylvania School Employees Retirement System (PSERS) state contribution. During the historical period, this line item increased 3.8% per annum and is expected to grow 3 contribution rates (actuarily determined) and provisions within current statute. For FY 2023-24, the state funds 55.1% of total PSERS contributions and employers fund the remainder. The third largest appropriation is state funds to school districts for special education. During

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

of State Cultural and Educational Professionals (FOSCEP) • Office and Professional Employees International Union (OPEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania • Pennsylvania State Education Association (PSEA), Non-Tenured Teachers • Service Employees International Union (SEIU), Healthcare Pennsylvania • United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) The attached table provides Compute the differential. This represents the incremental cost of the agreement relative to the baseline scenario. 2 For CIVEA and PSEA, the analysis incorporates pay increases effective January 2017 (4.00%), January 2018 (4.00%) and January 2019 (3.75%). For

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

Disability 2.14 2.71 0.57 26.6 Wages-Salaries 2.83 3.11 0.28 9.8 SERS/PSERS 3.73 4.01 0.28 7.5 Healthcare/Other 0.85 0.88 0.03 3.0 General Obligation 03 11.6 3.59 4.3 Wages-Salaries 3.11 3.31 6.5 3.86 4.0 SERS/PSERS 4.01 4.17 4.0 4.70 3.0 Healthcare/Other 0.88 1.07 22.1 1.26

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

rates of inflation also have important implications for public pensions. Table 2 illustrates the impact for the average SERS or PSERS beneficiary who was retired in 2020 after achieving full benefits. The average annual benefit earned was $30,050 for SERS and $29,600 for PSERS. 3 The analysis uses an average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The table displays nominal payments over

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

and gener- ally is of interest only to the affected officials and employees. Likewise, the Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS), covering the employees of the various school districts, area vocational-technical schools, and intermediate units is not addressed by this publication. Although the various school employers are generally local governments, the PSERS is adequately explained elsewhere and is beyond the scope of this brief publication. -ii- Table of Contents Page General Information

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

15 Non-Recurring Savings and Shifts Description Amount Delay payments to managed care organizations $394 Transfer tobacco settlement investments to PSERS 225 Total Savings 619 From Tobacco Fund (to DHS) $144 From Lottery Fund (to DHS) 172 From Oil and Gas 000 $2,500 $3,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 SERS PSERS +18.3% +42.8% +18.7% +7.3% +4.1% +4.6% 26 Note: millions of dollars. ~21% increase in

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PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf

Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office July 13, 2021 State Pension System Funding Outlook July 13, 2021 1 SERS 1 PSERS FY Ending Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability 2005-10 State System of Higher Education. Pension Funding as Share of Total General Fund Revenues July 13, 2021 2 FYE SERS PSERS Total Annual Growth Share of Revenue 2016 $665 $1,719 $2,384 -- 7.7% 2017 784 2,064 2,848

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PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf

schools (traditional, charters, and cyber charters) and a small number of higher education jobs (2,630 in 2022) held by PSERS members. Source: Employment from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Government – Education. Total Payroll from PSERS. Real PA Average Weekly Wage Contracts March 16, 2023 12 Average Weekly Wage contracts past two years Philadelphia CPI-U

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

Disability 2.14 2.71 0.57 26.6 Wages-Salaries 2.83 3.11 0.28 9.8 SERS/PSERS 3.73 4.01 0.28 7.5 Healthcare/Other 0.85 0.88 0.03 3.0 General Obligation 03 11.6 3.59 4.3 Wages-Salaries 3.11 3.31 6.5 3.86 4.0 SERS/PSERS 4.01 4.17 4.0 4.70 3.0 Healthcare/Other 0.88 1.07 22.1 1.26

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

0% 20.5% 31.1% -$70 -$50 -$30 -$10 $10 $30 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 PSERS SERS PSERS SERS Employer Contribution Rate Unfunded Liability (billions) Our Guest Speaker Dr. Don Boyd | Director of Fiscal Studies  Rockefeller Institute

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Pensions

IFO - Pensions IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Pensions Special Reports Issued by the Independent Fiscal Office PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis (2024) SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis (2023) PSERS Stress Test Impact Analysis (2023) SERS Stress Test Impact Analysis (2022) Financial Impact of Act 105 of 2019 (2022) Public

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

Special Education Funding 30.1 30.1 0.0 Accountability Block Grant 3.1 3.1 0.0 Social Security / PSERS Cont. 38.4 38.9 -0.5 Transportation Subsidy 15.4 14.6 0.8 Total 238.1 243.2

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

generally benefit seniors along with the overall population. Also excluded are state funds for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and state employee pension and retiree healthcare benefits. The analysis estimates that total senior program spending for all funds was

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Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf

generally benefit seniors along with the overall population. Also excluded are state funds for the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and state employee pension and retiree healthcare benefits. The analysis estimates that total senior program spending for all funds was

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PSBA_January_19_2022.pdf

IFO (January 2022). State and Local Tax Burden: Average Tax Rate and Rank Property Tax Personal Income Sales and Use PSERS Forecast January 19, 2022 9 State Contributions only. State share is ~57% of total contributions. Fiscal Year 18-19 19-

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PSBA-Property-Tax-Update-March-2020.pdf

Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2.3 billion). Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Growth Rate of School Property Tax to Increase March 13, 2020 3

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

years of the forecast (FY 2020-21 through 2023-24), three factors drive lower growth in expenditures: (1) SERS and PSERS employer contribution rates stabilize, (2) a contraction of the school age population restrains the growth of Pre-K-12 expenditures

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

500 $3,000 $3,500 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 SERS PSERS Growth in Pension Contributions dollar amounts are in millions 8.Jun.2016 17 Revenues as a Share of State GDP

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

million to the State Employee Retirement System (SERS) and $5.2 million to Public School Employee Retirement System (PSERS). Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce FY 2018-19 PIT withholding collections by $10.1 million. FY

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

of those losses. 2020 Q1 investment data for the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) are slated to be released at the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

million prepayment in unfunded liability from the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. State Pension System Funding Outlook SERS 1 PSERS Note: Dollars in millions. Data sourced from various system projections, releases and financial reports, unless noted otherwise. For year ranges

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdf

System of Higher Education. State Pension System Funding Outlook State Employees' Retirement System (SERS) 1 Public School Employees' Retirement System (PSERS) Note: Dollars in millions. Data sourced from system projections and reports. Share of GF represents the ratio of state contributions

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

statutory duties and undertakes various requests. These include: • coordinate and facilitate actuarial analysis of proposed changes to the SERS and PSERS pension systems; • provide a cost analysis of approved collective bargaining agreements; • provide an economic analysis of revenue proposals included in

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

increase Moderate growth of personnel cost drivers after FY 19-20  Personnel costs are 13% of state budget (excludes PSERS) State economy operates at long-term potential | No recession  Real GDP +1.8% | Wages-Salaries +3.9% | CPI-U

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

Lieutenant Governor, Milk Marketing Board, PA Infrastructure Investment, PA Municipal Retirement Board, PA Port Authorities, PA School Employees Retirement System (PSERS), Patient Safety Authority, and State Employees Retirement System (SERS). BY DEPARTMENT ($ millions) CreationDate: 2020-02-28 16:43:17 Creator

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

1 Intellectual Disability 228 82 84 86 89 3.3 Basic-Special Education 225 188 189 193 198 2.3 PSERS 200 78 65 74 71 2.4 SERS 58 -18 -44 -22 -9 -2.3 General Obligation Debt 30 67

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

351 72 73 75 77 County Child Welfare 146 56 44 44 44 Mental Health 55 28 26 26 28 PSERS Contribution 114 164 150 143 169 Basic and Special Education 146 174 174 168 165 PlanCon 0 0 192 0

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

278 302 Intellectual Disability 124 376 82 84 86 89 Basic and Special Education 330 233 191 194 198 203 PSERS Contribution 32 200 78 65 74 71 State Correctional Institutions 1,255 126 43 33 44 51 PSP (includes MLF

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

351 72 73 75 77 County Child Welfare 146 56 44 44 44 Mental Health 55 28 26 26 28 PSERS Contribution 114 164 150 143 169 Basic and Special Education 146 174 174 168 165 PlanCon 0 0 192 0

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

Other (debt related) $439 1.4% Total $30,282 100.0% Note: Millions of dollars. State monies include contributions to PSERS ($2.3 billion). Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education. Income and Property Tax Shares by Income Level February 28, 2020 18

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2024_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

114 PLEA PA Liquor Enforcement Association 7/1/2023 6/30/2027 11/9/2023 1 1 2 2 6 PSEA PA State Education Association, Non- Tenured Teachers 7/1/2023 6/30/2027 12/14/2023 0 0 0 1

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2019_Wage_Contract_Summary_Table.pdf

Association 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 10/8/2019 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 4.2 PSEA Pennsylvania State Education Association, Non- Tenured Teachers 7/1/2019 6/30/2023 7/2/2020 0.1 0.2

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