Your search for response returned 287 results.

Impact of Proposed Changes to the NOL Cap The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Senator Pennycuick. The letter contains projections for the impact of proposed changes to the amount of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss deductions. Tags: cap, letter, nol, response
Retail Delivery Fee Revenue Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a brief that provides revenue estimates for a statewide retail delivery fee. 04/23/2025
Options to Fund School District Property Tax Elimination In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates a previous analysis on potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated. 01/24/2025
Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).    03/21/2024
Testimony on the 2023 Basic Education Funding Commission Survey Director Matthew Knittel provided testimony to the Basic Education Funding Commission on the results from the 2023 Basic Education Funding Commission Survey. The IFO response to questions raised at the BEFC hearing can be found here. 12/15/2023
Property Tax Rebates for Senior Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposal to provide property tax rebates for senior homeowners in certain income ranges. 04/13/2023
Impact of Proposed Changes to the NOL Cap The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Senator Pennycuick. The letter contains projections for the impact of proposed changes to the amount of taxable income that C corporations may offset through net operating loss deductions. 02/24/2023
Economic and Budget Outlook Hearing Request The IFO published a letter in response to requests for additional information raised at a recent economic and budget outlook hearing on January 24, 2023. 02/10/2023
Analysis of Proposed Changes to State Motor Fuel Taxes The IFO published a letter in response to a request from Chairman Grove for a static and dynamic analysis of proposed changes to state motor fuel taxes. The proposal would reduce those taxes and replace lost revenues with motor vehicle sales and use taxes. 01/26/2023
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. 05/19/2022
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides updated estimates for potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated. 04/15/2022
Act 25 of 2011 Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates the potential reduction in property taxes due to Act 25 of 2011. 02/16/2022
Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021
School Property Tax, Senior Spending and Tax Revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates previous analyses on state and local budget issues, including (1) the IFO school district property tax forecast, (2) potential revenue sources that could replace school district property taxes if eliminated, (3) state spending dedicated to seniors, (4) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors, (5) tax treatment of retirement income by state and (6) migration patterns by age groups. 04/23/2021
COVID-19 Impact on Local Revenues In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office examined how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and gaming revenues received by municipalities, counties and school districts for the current year. 07/16/2020
Family First Prevention Services Act Preliminary Analysis In response to a legislative request, the IFO conducted a preliminary analysis on the state and county impacts of the Family First Prevention Services Act. 03/04/2020
Tax Incentive Expansion In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office analyzed new or expanded tax credits and special zones approved by the General Assembly since 2009. 12/11/2019
School District Property Tax Rebate In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a set of proposed school district property tax rebates for all homestead property owners. 11/12/2019
Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration. 10/31/2019
Minimum Wage Increase Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that expands upon a prior analysis on the impact of a proposed minimum wage increase. 10/10/2019
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code affecting personal income and sales and use taxes. 10/04/2019
School District Property Tax Elimination In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that estimates potential replacement revenues for school district property taxes described in House Bill 13. 10/03/2019
Senior Spending and Tax Revenues In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes (1) state spending dedicated to seniors, (2) the share of certain tax revenues remitted by seniors and (3) potential changes in senior migration patterns due to proposed tax law changes.   09/27/2019
Management and Non-Represented Wage Contract Analysis In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued a cost analysis that assumes management and non-represented employees will receive salary increases consistent with the new collective bargaining agreements. 09/25/2019
Property Tax Elimination for Senior Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposal to eliminate all property taxes for senior homeowners with household income of $40,000 or less.  09/25/2019
Property Tax Rent Rebate Program In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that supplements a previous request to analyze a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. 09/17/2019
Property Tax Rent Rebate Program In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis.   09/12/2019
Property Tax Rebate for Older Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that provides additional information to a previous analysis of a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income. 09/12/2019
Property Tax Rebate for Older Homeowners In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed property tax rebate for older homeowners based on various levels of household income.  08/22/2019
Migration Data by Age Group and Educational Attainment In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides data on educational attainment levels by age group for individuals migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 07/02/2019
Property Tax Replacement Estimates In response to a legislative request, the IFO has posted a letter that provides revenue estimates for various proposed changes to the state tax code that affect personal income, sales and property taxes. 05/23/2019
Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop Migration Data Request In response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019.  The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 04/29/2019
Homestead Exclusion and PIT In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that computes the level of personal income tax (PIT) increase needed to fully fund a 100% homestead exclusion for school district property taxes. 03/13/2019
Income and Property Tax Burden for Retirees In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that modifies or supplements certain computations from the IFO report entitled State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (December 2018). The letter also compares Pennsylvania’s relative debt burden to other states. 03/06/2019
PROPERTY TAX ELIMINATION PROJECTION In response to a legislative request, the IFO has updated projections regarding school district property tax elimination. The document projects the school property tax revenues that would be subject to replacement under potential legislation that would eliminate school property taxes. 02/27/2019
Tax Cut and Jobs Act Update- August 2018 In response to a legislative request, the IFO submitted a letter that discusses the impact of the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 on Pennsylvania General Fund tax revenues and the economy. 08/24/2018
Property Tax Update - August 2018 In response to a legislative request, the IFO updated select tables and graphs related to school district property tax that were originally released in January and December of 2017. 08/17/2018
Fiscal Impact of School Property Tax Rebates In response to a legislative request, the IFO estimated the fiscal impact of a school property tax rebate for all homesteads. The rebate would be equal to the statewide average school property tax paid by homesteads. The response includes both baseline estimates for currently eligible homesteads and estimates for a behavioral effect based on the filing of additional homestead applications in response to the availability of rebates. 03/13/2018
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Age of Householder - a Multi-Jurisdiction Comparison The Independent Fiscal Office responded to a question raised at the office's recent budget hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee. A committee member asked how Pennsylvania compares to other states regarding the share of owner-occupied households in which the homeowner is age 60 or over. The response includes multi-jurisdiction comparisons for householders who are age 60 or over, age 65 or over and age 75 or over.  03/12/2018
SPECIAL FUND RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS In response to a legislative request, the IFO compiled certain data presented in the Governor’s Executive Budget for various years to produce a multi-year history of receipts and disbursements for selected special funds. The letter identifies certain special fund budgeting and reporting issues that should be considered when analyzing the data. The letter also provides computations for a potential budget increase factor based on the annual increases in population and the consumer price index.  02/15/2018
Responsiveness of State Tax Revenues to Economic Growth In response to a legislative request, the IFO compared the growth of state tax revenues to certain economic metrics to ascertain the responsiveness of revenues to economic growth across states. 12/26/2017
A Review of Overtime Paid to Nurses in the Department of Corrections In response to a legislative request, the IFO reviewed overtime paid to nurses employed by the Department of Corrections (DOC). 12/13/2017
School Property Taxes; Households Age 60, 65 and 70 or Older In response to a legislative request, the IFO analyzed data from the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimate the share of school property taxes paid by households in which the householder (or spouse, if applicable) had attained the ages 60 or over, 65 or over and 70 or over. The analysis applies the shares derived from the ACS to estimated school district property tax collections attributable to homestead properties for FY 2015-16 to further estimate the dollar amounts paid by such households. 12/11/2017
School Property Tax and Related Data In response to a legislative request, the IFO collected and analyzed certain data related to school property taxes and potential replacement revenues. Data for Philadelphia in Table 3 has been adjusted based on information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue.  11/13/2017
Savings and Costs of a $12/hour Minimum Wage on DHS-administered Programs In response to a legislative request, the IFO reviewed the Department of Human Services' projections for the state savings and costs that could occur if Pennsylvania's minimum wage were to be increased to $12 per hour.  06/30/2017
Horse Racing Analysis Act 7 of 2016 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide technical assistance to the Joint State Government Commission (JSGC) for a study related to various aspects of the Pennsylvania horse racing industry. The IFO agreed to provide analysis and text necessary to address the statutory requirement that the report include “a determination of the economic return to the Commonwealth, racetrack operators, horsemen, breeders and other stakeholders on the investment of gaming assessments collected under the act of July 5, 2004 (P.L.572, No.71).” This report is the IFO's submission to the JSGC in fulfillment of this requirement. Note: Tables D and I (pages 8 and 21) and supporting text were updated since the original publication. (Revised March 13, 2017) Letter to Rep. Stephens in response to questions regarding the IFO analysis. (March 28, 2017) 03/13/2017
Senate Budget Hearing Requests The IFO provided additional information to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee in response to requests made at its recent budget hearing.  03/10/2017
House Budget Hearing Requests The IFO provided additional information to members of the House Appropriations Committee in response to requests made at its recent budget hearing.  03/10/2017
Analysis of House Bill 1693 (2013) Letter providing data on the share of residential and nonresidential property assessments by county (December 2013). The letter was in response to a request regarding HB 1693, which was a proposed constitutional amendment permitting different millage rates for residential and nonresidential property.   12/17/2013
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 62
BEFC_Survey_Results_FINAL.pdf Pennsylvania Department of Education to 100 school districts and 25 charter schools in October 2023. The data reflect all responses submitted by survey recipients. The school districts and charter schools surveyed represent the same sample used in the April 2015 BEFC Basic Education Funding Commission Report and Recommendations” (June 18, 2015). The BEFC received 84 completed school district surveys (84% response rate) and 11 charter school surveys (44%). Because large districts and charters submitted surveys, response rates weighted by the share of Hits: 61
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf October 2007 To: Governor Rendell and Members of the General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to the national movement to encourage legislatively mandated divestment from companies that do business with politically, socially, or morally repugnant I. Introduction and Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 – Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 – Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Part II. Background and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 – The Retirement Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 – Socially Responsible Investing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 – Divestment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 – Recent Divestment Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Part III. Divestment Bill Review and Analyses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 – Bill Review House Bill Hits: 60
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 47
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf Jesse Bushman, Revenue Analyst II Mr. Bushman joined the IFO in June 2016. He is the primary analyst responsible for all reports and analyses related to local property taxes and natural gas. Other responsibilities include forecasting revenues for gross receipts and Scenario ........................................................................................ 28 Implementation and Compliance .................................................................................................... 29 Section 5: Manufacturers ........................................................................................................ 31 Retail Bag Manufacturing Employment and Production ..................................................................... 31 Manufacturer Response to Regulations ........................................................................................... 32 Petrochemical and Plastics Manufacturing from Natural Gas ............................................................. 33 Section 6: Net Economic Impacts ........................................................................................... 37 Consumption and Spending on Retail Hits: 35
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 20
BEFC_Response_Letter_12_19_23.pdf Building 106 Irvis Office Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Co-Chairs Phillips-Hill and Sturla: This letter responds to questions raised at the December 14, 2023, Basic Education Funding Commission (BEFC) hearing regarding the 2023 BEFC Survey conducted estimates) and Part III (best practices) sections of the survey. If you have any further follow-up questions to these responses or other requests related to the 2023 BEFC Survey, please let me know. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Hits: 20
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 17
index.cfm its May 20 initial revenue estimate. ... (Full Report) Retail Delivery Fee Revenue Estimates Economics and Other April 23, 2025 In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a brief that provides revenue estimates for a statewide retail delivery fee. ... (Full May. Video Presentation ... (Full Report) Options to Fund School District Property Tax Elimination Economics and Other January 24, 2025 In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that updates a previous analysis on potential revenue sources that could Hits: 17
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf many years following enactment of com- bined reporting, it reflects any long-term actions undertaken by firms in response to the new filing method. In the absence of any response, some firms would realize a doubling or tripling of their tax liability (or greater) and they would likely require several years to Hits: 16
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf the Surviving Spouses of Certain Retired Commonwealth Employees A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 161 Adopted in the Session of 2005 Issues Associated with Extending Commonwealth-Subsidized Healthcare Coverage to 17105-1429 March 2006 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 161, which was adopted by the House of Representatives on September 27, 2005 (and amended by Hits: 16
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf the impact many years following the enactment of combined reporting, it reflects any long-term actions undertaken by firms in response to the new filing method. It also allows for the final determination of the unitary group, which may require several as combined reporting and rate reductions alter firms’ decisions. The IFO estimate includes behavioral adjustments that attempt to reflect taxpayer response to increasing/decreasing Penn- sylvania tax liabilities. This is accomplished in two ways. First, the IFO’s combined reporting estimate Hits: 14
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf alike, they do not appear to be a meaningful driver of the slow employment recovery. This means that the factors responsible for the slow employment recovery and depressed labor supply are issues that are not exclusively related to the struggles of 2021 show that the unemployment rate continued to fall (seasonally unadjusted) and the labor force contraction moderated. Federal Programs In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous federal programs have injected or will inject significant funds into the state economy. Table Hits: 14
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 14
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf alike, they do not appear to be a meaningful driver of the slow employment recovery. This means that the factors responsible for the slow employment recovery and depressed labor supply are issues that are not exclusively related to the struggles of 2021 show that the unemployment rate continued to fall (seasonally unadjusted), and the labor force contraction moderated. Federal Programs In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous federal programs have injected or will inject significant funds into the state economy. Table Hits: 14
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 13
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf Fiscal Office - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021. For most Depart- ment of Health reports 80,762 infections and 6,399 deaths statewide due to COVID-19. Immediate responses to the pandemic included the cancellation of sporting events, conferences and other travel, as well as the closure of university and college Hits: 13
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf wage rate and the much higher proportion of teenagers in that group. Research finds a much higher employment response to mandated higher wages for teenagers than adults. 24 Neumark, David, “The Effects of Minimum Wages on Employment,” Federal Reserve Bank of 2015). Minimum Wage | Page 23 workers, (2) the percentage increase in the average hourly wage, (3) the employment response parameter (or elasticity) used to compute the impact on employment and (4) the projected employment impact. In 2019, the analysis assumes the Hits: 12
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021. For most Depart- ment of Health reports 67,713 infections and 5,124 deaths statewide due to COVID-19. Immediate responses to the pandemic included the cancellation of sporting events, conferences and other travel, as well as the closure of university and college Hits: 12
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 12
2002_dbdc_report.pdf Defined Contribution Pension Plans Defined Contribution Pension Plans A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 266 Adopted in the Session of 2001-2002 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public Employee Retirement Commission Selected 17105-1429 December 2002 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 266, which was adopted in the House of Representatives on June 21, 2001. The resolution directed Hits: 12
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf Board. The agency has received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 11
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf Board. The agency has received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 11
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf in the statutory minimum wage (or 14 Allegretto et al. “Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies: A Response to Neumark, Salas and Wascher,” University of California Berkeley, IRLE Working Paper No. 116-15 (September 2015). 15 Wolfson, Paul and D state) and inclusion of non- restaurant employees in the dataset also contributed to the much higher negative employment response. The authors conclude that the movement to a $13.00 minimum wage yielded lower incomes of $74 per month for the average Hits: 10
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 10
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 10
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 10
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf increase was not just significant, it was beyond the range of budgetary possibility. Act 120 of 2010 was the legislative response to that situation. It repealed the Act 9 benefit improvements for future employees while retaining the higher employee contributions imposed ever since. In fact, when the Commonwealth simply raised the future employee contribution rate for SERS and PSERS members in response to significant increases in the employer contribution rate, the courts struck down that measure as it applied to each and Hits: 10
2004_srpvffinal.pdf Statewide Volunteer Firefighter Retirement System In Pennsylvania A report to the House of Representatives of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to House Resolution No. 452 Adopted in the Session of 2003-2004 Public Pension Policy and Funding Considerations Associated with 17105-1429 March 2004 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to House Resolution Number 452, which was adopted in the House of Representa- tives on November 24, 2003. The resolution Hits: 10
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 9
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 9
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 9
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf Board. The agency has received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 8
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf accommodation and personal services sectors. This outcome is explored further in the subsections that follow. Federal Relief and Stimulus In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous federal programs have injected or will inject significant funds into the state economy. Table in nursing homes. In general, that outcome would translate to lower economic growth as those family units reduce consumption in response to the lower income stream. Section 3: Economic Outlook | Page 17 Income Trends The COVID-19 pandemic had significant implications Hits: 8
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf brief summary of the recent Grand Jury report related to fraudulent R&D tax credit activity and agency responses. If submitted, written comments provided by stakeholders and affected agencies are also included in the Appendix. 1 Act 48 of 2017 is by $1 for each $1 in tax credit. The paper cites other research that suggests the elasticity or response could be somewhat higher (ranging up to -1.5 percent) and generally higher for small firms that are financially constrained and lack Hits: 7
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf The Appendix also includes a synopsis of the Grand Jury recommendations related to recent fraudulent activity and agency responses. If submitted, written comments provided by stakeholders and affected agencies are also included in the Appendix. 2 Act 48 of 2017 is the Appendix for additional information on the Grand Jury recommendations and the changes the agencies have initiated in response to the re- port. Section 5: Tax Credit Plan | Page 22 Specific Recommendations Based on the general findings, the IFO submits the Hits: 7
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2025_03.pdf would be used for an official revenue estimate that is required to be published by statute. Industry representatives declined to respond to those requests. Therefore, it was necessary to base the estimate on data from other states. The widely cited figure of the labor costs are pushed forward into higher prices with a modest offsetting reduction in demand. • • Some employers will respond by (1) slowing the rate of hiring, (2) releasing less productive workers and (3) reducing non-wage compensation. Some employers Hits: 7
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 7
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 7
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 7
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 7
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policy_2025_Update.pdf pension systems The IFO, at its discretion, may also contract with other actuaries or financial consultants. In general, an IFO response to a legislative request provides (1) a brief summary of the legislation and (2) a synopsis of any analysis included IFO may also request that actuaries include specific assumptions or scenarios in their analysis of the proposed legislation. Types of Responses The IFO issues actuarial notes (material actuarial impact) or letters (no material actuarial impact) in response to legislative requests for Hits: 7
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf pension systems The IFO, at its discretion, may also contract with other actuaries or financial consultants. In general, an IFO response to a legislative request provides (1) a brief summary of the legislation and (2) a synopsis of any analysis included IFO may also request that actuaries include specific assumptions or scenarios in their analysis of the proposed legislation. Types of Responses The IFO issues actuarial notes (material actuarial impact) or letters (no material actuarial impact) in response to legislative requests for Hits: 7
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf FUNDING COST-OF-LIVING ADJUSTMENTS A report to the General Assembly of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in Response to Senate Resolution No. 103 Adopted in the Session of 1999 Public Employee Retirement Commission Harrisburg, Pennsylvania FUNDING COST-OF- HARRISBURG 17120 November 2000 To: Members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly The attached report was prepared by the Commission in response to the direction provided by Senate Resolution Number 103, which was passed on October 26, 1999. The resolution directed the Hits: 7
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 6
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 6
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf and Asset Investment Review Commission The bill establishes the Public Pension Management and Asset Investment Review Commission. The commission is responsible for the study of (1) the performance of current investment strategies and procedures of the Systems, comparing realized rates of sum or as an annuity, or a combination of the two. Unlike a DB plan, the em- ployer is not responsible for providing the benefit payment once an employee retires or otherwise separates from employment. Hybrid Plans Hybrid plans combine DB Hits: 6
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf for investment loss. The Commonwealth, the board, an employer or a school entity or other political subdivision shall not be responsible for any investment loss incurred under the plan or for the failure of any investment to earn any specific or released or made public; or (C) a request for the record, material or data was made or is pending final response under the former act of June 21, 1957 (P.L.390, No.212), referred to as the Right-to-Know Hits: 6
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdf 99 per hour would also realize a modest wage increase of 2% to 4%. Column four (elasticity) is the employment response parameter used for each wage group and is based on a review of minimum wage studies. An elasticity or response parameter of -0.125 implies a 1.25% employ- ment reduction for a 10.0% increase in the effective wage Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf only. 2022 Wages and Salaries growth rates based on withholding revenues. Economic Outlook | Page 4 Federal and State Programs In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous programs injected significant funds into the state econ- omy. Table 1.3 displays amounts of 2.5%. ▪ Numbers games are expected to remain flat due to players’ preference for newer lottery games. 5 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Property Tax/Rent Rebate payments that would have been disbursed in FY 2020-21 were Hits: 5
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf affects all age groups, but is rela- tively stronger for workers under age 35. 2 Federal and State Programs In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous programs injected significant funds into the state econ- omy. Table 1.3 displays amounts 2.5%. ▪ Numbers games are expected to remain flat due to lottery players preference for newer lottery games. 4 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Property Tax/Rent Rebate payments that would have been disbursed in FY 2020-21 were Hits: 5
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic impact due to the 3.3 billion will be advanced from July to December 2021. Provision 4: SNAP Emergency Allotments The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (Spring 2020) expanded SNAP to increase the emergency allotments made to households. States are now able to provide the Hits: 5
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf by the PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input Hits: 5
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf PBB Board. The agency received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 5
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf Board. The agency has received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 5
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf Board. The agency has received a draft version of this review and was invited to submit a formal response. If submitted, the response appears in the Appendix to this review. The IFO would like to thank the agency staff that provided considerable input to this Hits: 5
IFO_Response_Letter_Jan_20_2023.pdf Committee Chairman Pennsylvania House of Representatives 7 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide ten-year static and dynamic revenue estimates for proposed changes because it does not assume that the state economy expands due to the tax cut. The estimate does reflect consumer response through the application of an elasticity parameter: consumers increase purchases when prices decline. The second table (attached) displays results from Hits: 5
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf Honorable Stanley E. Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to your request for additional information on states that have legalized recreational marijuana and associated costs arising from legalization that marijuana are well-documented, states are generally unable to estimate the costs of externalities associated with legalized adult use. This response focuses on areas where states have noted a change in utilization of public services in the years following legalization. Data Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Outlook | Page 11 Federal and State Programs In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous programs injected significant funds into the state economy. Table 3.3 displays amounts for FRB Debt Holdings End of October Growth Economic Outlook | Page 20 Consumer Spending Patterns The federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the pandemic triggered a surge in consumer pur- chases, particularly for durable goods subject to state sales tax. Although Hits: 5
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf CNIT revenues have been significantly impacted by the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Income shifting in response to the Act provided an artificial boost to FY 2018-19 revenues, but reported profits are expected to normalize in FY 2019- growth for non-recessionary years. Several factors will impact revenues over the forecast horizon:  Income shifting in response to the passage of the federal TCJA provided an artificial boost to FY 2018-19 CNIT revenues, which grew 18.0 percent Hits: 5
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf REMI economic model could also be used. That model is more complex and allows for dynamic effects in response to any net increase in economic activity due to the tax credit. Dynamic effects allow certain technical parameters to change (e.g., the price of inputs, migration patterns) in response to 18 The analysis assumes that $65 million is spent on tax credits. Alternatively, if the state used those monies for discretionary Hits: 4
SR2017-06.pdf the assessed value of homestead property in Pennsylvania. Specifically, CCAP coordinated a survey of county assessment offices that resulted in responses from 50 counties and contributes to an understanding of the share of the property tax base that is comprised of 2017. If a county was not able to supply all of the requested information or if the county did not respond to the survey, the IFO estimated the missing values based on data from other sources. The responding counties represented approximately Hits: 4
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdf realize a modest wage increase of 3.5% (not displayed in Table 2.3). Column four (elasticity) is the employment response parameter used for each wage group and is based on a review of minimum wage studies. An elasticity or response parameter of -0.135 implies a 1.35% employ- ment reduction for a 10.0% increase in the effective wage Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf 1%. Corporate net income tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The CNIT in FY 2019-20 revenue was shifted to FY 2020-21 as a result of tax due date extensions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The amounts include $375 million in CNIT, $1,335 million in PIT, $160 million in Hits: 4
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf SUT revenues was the dramatic shift in consumer spending from services to durable goods (e.g., furniture, appliances, electronics) in response to the pandemic and related mitigation efforts during 2020 and 2021. However, recent national retail sales data show a reversion addition to the funds detailed in Table 2.6, the state was allocated federal funds under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) for a temporary increase in the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) used to calculate federal reimbursements for Medicaid Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf revenues were Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 3 below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The CNIT in FY 2019-20 revenue was shifted to FY 2020-21 as a result of tax due date extensions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The amounts include $375 million in CNIT, $1,335 million in PIT, $160 million in Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf 1%. Corporate net income tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 3 rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in FY 2019-20 revenue was shifted to FY 2020-21 as a result of tax due date extensions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The amounts include $375 million in CNIT, $1,335 million in PIT, $160 million in Hits: 4
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2020-09.pdf net income tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large Revenue Estimate Performance | Page 3 federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2019-20 revenue was shifted to FY 2020-21 as a result of tax due date extensions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The amounts include $375 million in CNIT, $1,335 million in PIT, $160 million in SUT and Hits: 4
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf increase in toll rates, demand (i.e., the number of transactions) decreased by 0.03 to 0.3 percent. These responses are referred to as elasticities. Because demand falls by less than the rate increase, users are characterized as “inelastic,” or by 0.1 to 0.35 percent for each 1.0 percent increase in toll rates. The strength of the response depends on the type of road, geographic location and viable alternatives. (See Table 2 for a summary of studies and Hits: 4
IFO_Response_Letter_March_7_2022.pdf NOL) deduction threshold). You request that the estimates “be prepared on the basis of assumptions that consider the probable behavioral responses of taxpayers, businesses and other persons and any potential dynamic or macroeconomic impacts in response to the proposed change.” As noted in a February 14, 2022 response letter to your office, the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 4
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf expansion of SNAP benefits). During CY 2020 and CY 2021, consumers dramatically shifted spending from services to durable goods in response to the pandemic and related mitigation efforts. For CY 2022, spending on goods and services record strong growth. For example funds provide additional support. While General Fund appropriations are the primary focus of the analysis, those appropriations will fluctuate in response to the availability of funds from other sources. For example, the General Fund may pick up the difference if a Hits: 4
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf 18. When available, the IFO utilized data submitted by the Commonwealth Foundation (grey shading) that was received from DCED in response to a right-to- know request. Educational Tax Credit Overview | Page 16 Table 2.11 provides a breakdown of EOSTC 18. When available, the IFO utilized data submitted by the Commonwealth Foundation (grey shading) that was received from DCED in response to a right-to-know request. A processed application may not result in a scholarship award for various reasons, including Hits: 3
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdf the Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement (OSMRE) in the U.S. Department of the Inte- rior. OSMRE is responsible for (1) the regulation of active coal mines and (2) the reclamation of aban- doned mine lands, including coal refuse re- claim lands that had been abandoned by private, legacy coal companies to government entities, primarily state governments. 4 In response to economic stress from nationwide oil shocks, the U.S. Congress sought to diversify the electric generation market and enacted Hits: 3
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf under Act 2 of 1995. SIAs are (1) brownfields formerly utilized for industrial activity where there is no financially viable responsible party to remediate the contamination or (2) land located within an enterprise zone. 2 SIAs are designated by the Pennsylvania return to participate. This “brownfield premium” has been estimated as high as an additional 10 to 15 percent. 11 In response, states have implemented a wide variety of programs to incentivize brownfield remediation and redevelopment. Some programs are specifically targeted to Hits: 3
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf not be viable and leverage or motivate additional federal credits, as well as the relative strength of that response. 27 The first comparison considers states with and without HPTCs in the same geographic region. The second comparison considers states that recently adopted HPTCs during the past decade to examine how the level of federal Qualified Rehabilitation Expenses (QREs) responded. (The federal credit would generally equal 20 percent of the QRE. The National Park Service publishes QRE by state, as opposed to Hits: 3
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf use tax after an inquiry by DOR). DOR’s Bureau of Enforcement Planning, Analysis and Discovery (EPAD) is responsible for the Department’s voluntary and involuntary disclosure efforts related to aircraft. Tax collections under these programs can vary greatly from year economic impact considers how the exemption might affect industry employment and output. If employment and output expand in response to the exemption, then some portion of the static revenue loss would be recouped. For the purpose of the static revenue estimate Hits: 3
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 4 What Analysis Does/Does Not Do  It does capture response to higher tax rates.  Higher sales taxes implies consumers buy less.  Minor increase in non-compliance and tax avoidance in response to higher rates.  It does capture “secondary” effects.  The interaction among tax cuts. For example, property tax cut Hits: 3
Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2024_07.pdf 1%. Corporate net income tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The CNIT in FY 2019-20 revenue was shifted to FY 2020-21 as a result of tax due date extensions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The amounts include $375 million in CNIT, $1,335 million in PIT, $160 million in Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf SUT revenues was the dramatic shift in consumer spending from services to durable goods (e.g., furniture, appliances, electronics) in response to the pandemic and related mitigation efforts during 2020 and 2021. However, recent national retail sales data show a reversion is general aid for eligible expenses incurred through CY 2024 and is available for a wide range of uses in response to the health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, including support to households and businesses, replacing lost revenue Hits: 3
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf sources (3.6 percent). Wages-salaries is a key metric that is responsive to economic conditions but generally responds with a short lag. As shown in Figure 1.2, the series is stable and can be projected with a fair degree new tax laws or administrative rulings (e.g., taxation of internet sales) and timing issues (e.g., taxpayer response to tax law changes) will also cause divergence from the baseline growth rate. 1 PIT non-withholding tax revenues are attributable to Hits: 3
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf 4,450) due to those two factors. 4 For the lender (i.e., the federal government), the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the repayment pause cost is $5 billion per month and $195 billion total due to foregone data as state-level data are not available. Sources include: “Student Loan Pause Could Cost $275 Billion”, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (November 2022); “Is High Student Loan Debt Always a Problem?” Looney and Yannelis, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Hits: 3
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf well known. None of the stakeholders contacted by the IFO were aware of the credit, including state offices responsible for creating awareness about living organ and tissue donation. This likely contributes to the credit’s underutilization.  Employers are legally limited administers the OBMD tax credit (DOR), as well as staff in the Pennsylvania Department of Health that are responsible for creating awareness of living organ donation. The following bullet points summarize the main findings of this research:  The OBMD has Hits: 2
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdf Scott Martin Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Martin: This letter and attachments respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Santarsiero requested April, the IFO will release an analysis of the revenue proposals included in the 2023-24 Governor’s Executive Budget. Responses to questions or requests related to those proposals will be included in that document. Sincerely, Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Hits: 2
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Schwank asked IFO is unable to provide more data on this subject at this time. The table on page 6 of this response contains statistics on the migration of first-time undergraduate students to and from each state for 2010 and 2018 (latest Hits: 2
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf from FY 2020-21 (2.0%). The slower growth for FY 2020-21 was due to stable millage rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That trend largely reverted for FY 2021-22. • Current-year collections for the Philadelphia school statewide increase due to millage rates was $350 million (71%). The forecast assumes that rate will decrease to 60% in response to the record-high Act 1 Index and increase to 65% by the end of the forecast period. • Economic growth Hits: 2
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf since FY 2013-14. This was due to stable millage rates from FY 2019-20 to FY 2020-21 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. For FY 2019-20 to FY 2020-21, roughly 45% of school districts held millage increase to 85% in FY 2022-23 and 80% in FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25 as school districts respond to inflationary pressures. For remaining years, the rate is assumed to be 75%. • Economic growth. Annual tax revenue growth reflects Hits: 2
Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf In response to a request from the General Assembly, this document updates the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s (IFO) official General Fund Page 6 purposes reflects the unusual immediate loss of all cash flow, as opposed to a federal stimulus provided in response to a slow down or recession which may be used for business investment and expansion.  Due to uncertainty regarding Hits: 2
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdf The Honorable Robert M. Tomlinson Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide an update to a previous letter transmitted by the office 24,900 new rebates ($37.3 million). 1 See http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf September 12, 2019 Page 2  The expansion of the supplemental rebate for homeowners currently Hits: 2
Response-Letter-09-06-2019.pdf Honorable Mario Scavello Senate of Pennsylvania 20 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to a request made by your office to provide an additional estimate related to an analysis transmitted by the Independent Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office 1 See http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/getfile.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf Author: Charlene Raves Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 CreationDate: 2019-09-12 13:07:56 ModDate Hits: 2
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdf Honorable Mario Scavello Senate of Pennsylvania 20 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Scavello: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed property tax do not apply for the homestead exclusion. 2 See http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/Resources/Documents/Response-Letter-05-10-2019.pdf. 3 See the Department of Revenue’s 2017 Property Tax/Rent Rebate Program Statistical Report Hits: 2
RB_2024_10_School_Funding.pdf calendar years (CY) 2020 and 2021, three federal stimulus packages provided more than $6 billion to Pennsylvania school districts in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Table 1 shows annual revenue sources for all school districts from FY 2018-19 to 4.4% per annum. School districts increased spending on support services (e.g., enhanced mental health, technology, professional development) in response to the pandemic. ▪ Temporary federal funds enabled significant spending on facilities. In FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24, more Hits: 2
RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf 6.99. It is noted that the figures in the table are static estimates, and do not reflect any dynamic response that could partially offset the negative revenue impact. Dynamic effects refer to the increase in private economic activity that should occur in response to lower tax burdens. A positive revenue offset should occur because (1) the lower tax rates (statutory and effective) encourage Hits: 2
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf including Pennsylvania, did expand year-over-year in 2021 (not shown) due to (1) an increase in coal generation in response to high natural gas prices and (2) artificially low 2020 emissions due to reduced economic activity in response to COVID-19. That trend was unique to 2021, and emissions in most states reverted to a historical trend decline Hits: 2
RB-2017-5.pdf Tax Revenues to Economic Growth INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE DECEMBER 2017 Responsiveness of Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Introduction This analysis responds to a request submitted by a member of the General Assembly to the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). The analysis compares resource industries (e.g., Colorado) or states with a relatively large number of retirees (e.g., Pennsylvania) are likely to respond to economic conditions differently than states with a more diverse 1 The analysis excludes the District of Columbia. 2 Because Hits: 2
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf an allowable administrative expense payable from the pension trust fund. Filing Responsibility. The chief administrative officer of the municipality is responsi- ble for filing the actuarial valuation and experience investiga- tion reports. - 22 - Delinquent Reports. If a municipality is delinquent in the major Pennsylvania local government associations, including those representing police officers and firefighters. The board appoints a secretary who is responsible for the appointment of a staff and for directing the day-to-day operations of the system. - 35 - Administration and Hits: 2
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdf 0% 10.0% 5 Increase in Total Costs (3*4) 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 6 Adjust for Consumer Response n.a. 4.2% 1.4% 7 Assume 65% is Passed Forward 0.4% 2.7% 0.9% Note: Increase in Total Costs also includes higher payroll taxes. Adjustment for consumer response assumes a price elasticity of demand equal to -0.5. Assumes constant profit margin. Source: "Analysis of Revenue Proposals," IFO Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf Bus. and Workforce Inv. -- -- -- 4.5 -- -- 4.5 PA Pref. Prg. Trademark Lic. -- -- -- 3.2 -- -- 3.2 Ag. Prep. and Response -- -- -- -- 3.0 -- 3.0 Agricultural Excellence -- -- 2.8 -- -- -- 2.8 Agricultural Research -- -- 2.2 -- -- -- 2.2 Farmers' Market Food Coup COVID-19 ▪ Retail food inspections per inspector fell 40% in FY 19-20 | temporary operations pause in March ▪ Food inspectors responded to a rise in consumer complaints related to COVID-19 mitigation Food assistance provided increased significantly in FY 20-21 Hits: 2
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_28_2021.pdf Development 264 4.2% 33.9 2.7% Forensic Laboratory Services 219 3.5% 36.7 2.9% Emergency Preparedness & Response 107 1.7% 33.0 2.6% Statewide Communications & Radio Network 73 1.2% 55.2 4.4% Community Partnerships 5 192.3 $6.9 20.7 Officer Recruitment & Development 5.9 7.2 22.9 36.1 -- -- Emer. Preparedness & Response 4.4 5.2 18.0 27.6 -- -- Forensic Laboratory Services 5.4 6.9 20.5 32.8 -- -- Gaming Hits: 2
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdf 2020 6 PEMA Actual Spend and FTEs (2018-19) January 22, 2020 7 FTEs Expenditures Activities Number Share Amount Share Response Operations 49 30.6% $5.0 1.2% Administration 36 22.5% 13.3 3.1% Planning, Training and Outreach Red Cross Extended Care Program Search and Rescue Totals Administration $8.54 $1.05 $0.00 $0.00 $9.59 Response Operations 2.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.78 OSFC Training & Certification 0.00 2.31 0.00 Hits: 2
PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf Department of Education through 23-24, forecast by the IFO thereafter. Act 1 Index Components March 16, 2023 14 ECI response rates down dramatically 2010 71.8% 2019 62.3% 2021 54.3% 2022 50.6% 3.4% 4.1% 5 was 4.7% for 2022 Q4 ▪ Much depends on ECI | SAWW forecast is more reliable (assumes no recession) ▪ Falling ECI response rates complicate the forecast CreationDate: 2023-03-16 14:56:29 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-03- Hits: 2
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf was adjusted for the impact of mitigation efforts related to COVID-19 and delayed payment due dates in response to the virus. These adjustments were generally informed by available data from third party sources and the timeline of the phased reopening and monitor games decelerate as the market stabilizes and two transfers from the Gaming Fund. 13 13 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Property Tax/Rent Rebate payments that would have been disbursed in FY 2020-21 were accelerated into Hits: 2
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf growth rate. Consumer behavior, corporate profits, new tax laws or administrative rulings and timing issues (e.g., taxpayer response to tax law changes) will also cause divergence from the baseline growth rate. 1 PIT non-withholding tax revenues are attributable to to 2017 and then to 2018) as taxpayers anticipated rate cuts after the 2016 election and then in response to the passage of the federal TCJA. Withholding revenues are projected to fall short of estimate for FY 2018-19 (-$3 million Hits: 2
NAP-2018-03.pdf under Article XIX-A of the Tax Reform Code of 1971 (Act 48-1994). 2 This report is provided in response to a legislative request and does not constitute a tax credit review as required under Act 48-2017. 3 The costs, building maintenance, office supplies and equipment, etc. Administrative costs do not include the salaries or benefits for individuals directly responsible for the provision of services to the benefiting community. Tax credits may be used against the corporate net income, bank Hits: 2
MTR-2018-1.pdf monthly estimate by 22 percent. The January trend in CNIT payments likely reflects income and deduction shifting by taxpayers in response to federal tax law changes. Personal income tax (PIT) quarterly payments were again exceptionally strong in January, exceeding estimate by year of the uncapped federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT), by overpaying for tax year 2017. This behavioral response to federal tax law changes is likely to result in weaker non-withholding payments in March through June. Year-to- Hits: 2
Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2021.pdf Private colleges, universities and professional schools recorded similar job losses as students moved to remote learning or delayed admission in response to the pandemic. Employment in this subsector fell 17.1% (-31,300) over the prior year. Private elementary and secondary 3.1%). These price changes reflect shifting consumer demand for certain goods and supply chain constraints as consumers and businesses respond to the pandemic. For the full calendar year, the Philadelphia CPI-U increased by 0.9%. If food and energy Hits: 2
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf the share that is spent and not saved, (2) the share spent on taxable items, and (3) how quickly individuals respond to the tax cut. Some forecasting firms believe the response will be immediate, while others believe there will be a six to nine-month lag. The second way the TCJA Hits: 2
IFO_PASBO_Oct_2024.pdf 24-25. Average wage gains after pandemic job losses. • ECI follows the SAWW trend with a delay (education-specific). • ECI response rate down dramatically: 73% in 2014, 64% in 2018, 46% in June 2024. Base SAWW ECI Impact of COVID Money Schools appear to have spent COVID money on facilities overall: good sign Act 1 index will fall, how far? ECI response rates complicate forecast Follow us on X (@ind_fisc_office) or sign up on the IFO website to receive notifications about new Hits: 2
IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf from members of the General Assembly for economic or budgetary analysis. Whenever possible, we work with members to craft a response that will be informative and useful. If reliable data are available for the purpose of the proposed analysis, we have policy, we make all published reports available on our website after the requestor has had three days to review the response and ask questions. The office also (1) estimates the budgetary impact of collective bargaining agreements, (2) coordinates and provides actuarial Hits: 2
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf tax bill, while others realize a significant tax increase. For this final group of firms, it is likely they will respond in some fashion, and to the extent they are able, it is reasonable to assume they will adjust their operations appear to range from 5 to 15 percent. Those net gains reflect actions taken by firms over several years in response to combined reporting to minimize their overall state tax bill. State Tax Rate Method State Tax Rate Method Alabama 6 Hits: 2
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf bad loan write-offs have declined for the past four quarters and will total roughly $130 billion for 2011. In response to these write-downs, financial institutions tightened lending standards and curtailed loans to individuals and businesses. FDIC data show that two quarters. While non-financial firms endured this credit contraction, they also faced a precipitous drop in sales volume. Firms responded by reducing labor costs and postponing investment to preserve profit margins. From their pre-recession peaks to recession trough, data Hits: 2
Five_Year_Outlook_2024.pdf Due to programs that were not appropriated from the General Fund in FY 2018-19 such as Agriculture Preparedness and Response (+$34 million), Animal Health and Diagnostic Commission (+$11 million) and Agricultural Innovation Development (+$10 million). For most agencies, projected growth included in the prior outlook that drive higher deficits. The $1.0 billion boost to education spending is a partial response to the Commonwealth Court ruling in the Pennsylvania school funding case. PHEAA received a substantial increase (33%) to expand tuition Hits: 2
Econ_Budget_Outlook_Hearing_Response_Letter_02_2023.pdf Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Grove: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent roundtable hearing on January 24, 2023. Representative Kutz requested information regarding consumer debt by income level as it overlaps with first-time homebuyers and/or renters. This response focuses on average credit card balances, because (1) that has been the largest source of debt increases over the last Hits: 2
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf the prior year after adjusting for the reinstatement of the pre-payment requirement (after a temporary suspension in response to the pandemic) and one-time transfers. This increase in consumer spending is inconsistent with the current level of Penn- sylvania unemployment Q4. E-commerce sales remain strong due to the continued shift of consumer purchases to online platforms in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. After months of limited activity in the spring, pent-up demand for motor vehicles increased motor vehicle Hits: 2
Demographics_Outlook_2024.pdf under age 50 without children say they are unlikely to ever have kids. 10 The top reasons cited for this response include: (1) don’t want to have children, (2) want to focus on other things, such as careers or interests are possible factors. For example, many older adults prefer to remain in their homes as long as possible, and in response, the state increased funding to expand home and community-based services over the past decade. This increased support allowed a Hits: 2
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf IFO | APRIL 2018 1 INTRODUCTION In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) undertook an analysis of state corporate net income tax (CNIT) rates rate cut would not be revenue neutral. However, many federal studies find that employment and economic activity could increase in response to a federal rate cut. Policymakers would need to weigh these tradeoffs in recognition that a revenue criterion is only Hits: 2
2025tns5_Knittel.pdf significant sales tax pyramiding on business purchases and property tax provisions that clearly favor homeowners and disfavor businesses. 4 In response, Dan R. Bucks et al. asserted that the article is fundamentally flawed because it attempts to evaluate tax fairness without Tax Notes State, Apr. 8, 2024, p. 106. 5 Dan R. Bucks et al., “Incidence Is Not Incidental: A First Response to COST’s Flawed Critique,” Tax Notes State, Oct. 15, 2024, p. 173. © 2025 Tax Analysts. All rights reserved. Tax Hits: 2
2002_drop_report.pdf 13 - RECOMMENDATION NO. 4 (CONT’D) 5) If the PMRS Board fails to ensure compliance with the IROP statute in response to the audit findings, the IROP will be closed to new participants for a period of two years from the T - 44 - (c) PMRS noncompliance.—If the Pennsylvania Municipal Retirement 1 Board fails to ensure compliance with this Chapter in response to the audit 2 findings under subsection (b), the IROP shall be closed to new participants for a 3 period Hits: 2
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf benefits • What benefits are included in prevalent plans? • What benefits must be supplemented? • Cost vs comprehensiveness • How will the market respond? EHB EHB EHB More ACA implementation coming… • Delivery system reforms – Value based purchasing demonstrations – Medical homes – Health homes – ACOs – Team Hits: 1
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf impact from those next rounds of spending would be minor compared to the first round. Employment would also increase in response to the additional spending, but the potential impact on the labor market is less certain, and any positive impact might Hits: 1
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf state. The report found that $99.8 million was invested in 33 rural companies and assumed that investment was directly responsible for the creation or retention of 1,000 jobs, which generated nearly $50 million in personal income. The created/retained Hits: 1
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf Cost Model: A Basis for Public Funding Essential to Bringing Nationwide Interoper- able Communications to America’s First Responders,” OBI Technical Paper No. 2. Federal Communications Commission (May 2010). “Broadband’s Economic Impact in Michigan,” Connect Michigan (March 2013). “Broadband’s Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2024.pdf The Honorable Scott Martin Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Martin: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Chairman Martin requested Hits: 1
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached table respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Browne requested Hits: 1
Senate Budget Hearing Request.pdf Honorable Patrick M. Browne Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter responds to a request for additional information raised by Senator Vulakovich at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office Hits: 1
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdf Chairman Senate Appropriations Committee 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Browne: This letter and the attached tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Senator Hughes noted Hits: 1
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf 2020 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes Hits: 1
SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf March 2019 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes Hits: 1
RTR-2014-05.pdf the prior year due to atypical bank shares tax deposits of $37 million. Nearly all of those deposits were in response to Department of Revenue guidance intended to clarify recent statutory changes. Fiscal year-to-date revenues remain $35 million (-10 Hits: 1
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdf the revenue loss from rate reduction to reflect dynamic effects (i.e., allowing the economy to expand or contract in response to the policy). For the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, most studies using dynamic models found that dynamic Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf 0 2019 Q1 Pre-COVID billions of dollars Max COVID Impact Sales and Use Tax Notes Non-motor sales tax responds to federal transfers ▪ Up +10.4% (adjusted for shifts/transfers) from FY 19-20 ▪ Up +11.7% from FY 18- Hits: 1
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf to exhibit much stronger growth in FY14-15 because these revenues were suppressed in FY13-14 due to a behavioral response related to federal tax law changes. Nontax revenues – The projection includes $50 million from the slot machine license fee for Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2019-07.pdf net income tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The CNIT overprediction error Hits: 1
Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf net income tax revenues were below forecast likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the large federal corporate rate cut enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. The CNIT overprediction error Hits: 1
REU-2019-12.pdf advance of the January due date). It is unclear whether the December shortfall is related to adjusted taxpayer behavior in response to the TCJA changes or a true shortfall. Withholding payments also fell short for the month (-$2.2 million), while Hits: 1
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf Francis X. Ryan House of Representatives 149A East Wing Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17102 Dear Representative Ryan: This letter responds to your requests that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide various data regarding Pennsylvania residents age 65 or older. Specifically Hits: 1
Response_Letter_2021_April.pdf pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf, http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf and http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=Resources/Documents/SR2017-05.pdf Hits: 1
Response-Letter-9-30-2019.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide additional estimates related to House Bill 13. The IFO provides the enclosed table in response to that request. Please note the following:  The estimates utilize the latest revenue forecast released by the IFO (June Hits: 1
Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf 202117 P.O. Box 202055 Harrisburg, PA 17120-2117 Harrisburg, PA 17120-2055 Dear Representatives Boback and Petrarca: This letter responds to your request for an analysis of child welfare program funding in Pennsylvania from federal, state and local sources. Specifically Hits: 1
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdf 2019 The Honorable Vincent Hughes Senate of Pennsylvania 545 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Hughes: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates related to school district property tax rebates for eligible Hits: 1
Response-Letter-10-7-2019.pdf benefits or participate in a savings plans, and it is possible that employers could reduce some of those benefits in response to a higher minimum wage. I hope this letter addresses your request. If you have any further questions regarding the Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdf 2019 The Honorable Doug Mastriano Senate of Pennsylvania 172 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Mastriano: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the annual loss of tax revenue associated with Hits: 1
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdf The Honorable Robert M. Tomlinson Senate of Pennsylvania 281 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Tomlinson: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates of the funds necessary for a proposed expansion of Hits: 1
RB_2025_04_Retail_Delivery_Fee.pdf Independent Fiscal Office Page 1 Pennsylvania Retail Delivery Fee Independent Fiscal Office | Legislative Request | April 2025 This brief responds to a request from Senator Tim Kearney for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to provide (1) revenue estimates for a Hits: 1
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf 1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). In general, stimulus funds had to be used to Hits: 1
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf is unclear what factors drive this trend. The $2.00 per pack tax was first levied in 2014, and consumer response to higher prices should be largely reflected in the FY 2018-19 data. There has been a general shift from Hits: 1
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf child care centers to determine DHS program eligibility, enroll children in child care and provide technical assistance. The ELRCs are responsible for the final distribution of funds provided to the Commonwealth through ARPA. Statewide, child care providers received approximately $19,445 Hits: 1
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf labor force. If inflation remains elevated, those workers may return eventually. Remote Learning: Cyber Charter Enrollment and Home Schooling In response to the pandemic, some parents opted to keep children at home and enroll in cyber charters or receive instruction from Hits: 1
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf Transfer Receipts (Table CAINC35), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2 The BEA publishes the “Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income” by state, which included a total of $5.2 billion for PPP loans to Pennsylvania sole Hits: 1
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf labor force. If inflation remains elevated, those workers may return eventually. Remote Learning: Cyber Charter Enrollment and Home Schooling In response to the pandemic, some parents opted to keep children at home and enroll in cyber charters or receive instruction from Hits: 1
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief in response to a request made during testimony before the House State Government Subcommittee on Public Pensions, Benefits and Risk Management (August Hits: 1
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf The COVID-19 pandemic, mitigation efforts and federal response produced two economic outcomes that directly impacted the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers. Inflation surged to a four-decade high Hits: 1
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf Transfer Receipts (Table CAINC35), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 The BEA published the “Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income” by state for 2021, which included a total of $3.8 billion for PPP loans to Hits: 1
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf In response to a request from the General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures Hits: 1
RB-2019-01.pdf of other outstanding payments from the previous year. 3 Net impact: +$22.3 million. The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
RB-2018-01.pdf January 2018 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax forecasts in response to legislative and public interest. This analysis provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes to Hits: 1
RB-2015-04.pdf service). The CBO report Ðirst develops a teen‐employment responsiveness or “elasticity” parameter to higher minimum wages (i.e., the response of employers to the higher wage), and then adjusts those parameters based on broader research to derive adult elasticity parameters Hits: 1
RB 2019 RACP.pdf In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief which examines the potential impact of House Hits: 1
PSBA Presentation - Final.pdf How will “baseline” school district property taxes grow?  How will the new replacement revenues grow?  How will both respond to economic conditions? 1/19/2017 8 Long-Term Revenue Growth Trends 1/19/2017 9 2004-05 = 1.0 Hits: 1
Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf The Elusive Recovery Recovery never takes off. o Previously, consumers were retrenching. o Paying down debt: deleveraging. Now, other factors responsible. o Government tightening. o Firms not investing due to uncertainty; weak demand. Federal and state gov’ts unlikely to contribute Hits: 1
Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf April).  Another portion of final payment remitted in May.  Smaller NOL impact? More income shifting? How did firms respond to Tax Bulletin?  Has it been fully reflected in recent payments?  Have firms delayed payments pending resolution? First Hits: 1
Presentation-2018-07-NCSL.pdf 7/29/2018 2 Today’s Discussion Pension analysis added to IFO duties in 2016.  Statute changed the entity responsible for issuing “actuarial notes” on pension legislation.  Previously, a commission with executive and legislative branch appointees issued the actuarial Hits: 1
Pirates_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf includes higher fan spending inside (tickets, food-beverage) and outside (lodging, food-beverage) the park. The full report, including a response letter from the Pirates, is available on the IFO’s website. EMAIL: CONTACT@IFO.STATE.PA.US PHONE: 717-230- Hits: 1
Phillies_Press_Release_2024_07.pdf between higher fan spending inside (tickets, food-beverage) and outside (lodging, food-beverage) the park. The full report, including a response letter from the Phillies, is available on the IFO’s website. PHONE: 717-230-8293 EMAIL: contact@ifo.state.pa Hits: 1
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_09_2023.pdf 7 152.0 Note: Amounts in $ millions. DCNR Metric Highlights State park visitation and user fees per visitor spiked in response to COVID-19 ▪ Visitors up 15% from FY 19-20 to FY 20-21 | User fees up 52% in same Hits: 1
PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf children | $554 million ▪ September first month with only CTC payments, no federal UC Higher inflation unlikely to be transitory ▪ Delayed response in housing and rental markets ▪ Pressures remain in both markets in short-term due to lags ▪ Food prices beginning to Hits: 1
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf return to in-person forms of entertain- ment and reverts to annual transfers from the Gaming Fund. 11 11 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Property Tax/Rent Rebate payments that would have been disbursed in FY 2020-21 were Hits: 1
NGQU_2024_Q2.pdf a decrease of 23.1% in new wells from the same period in 2023. Drillers have likely cut back in response to very low average prices and high inventory levels. ▪ The average Pennsylvania spot hub price was $1.48, an increase Hits: 1
NGPR_2024_Q4.pdf 19.1%) from the prior year. The fourth quarter price was bolstered by December ($2.70), as prices increased in response to winter weather demand. The average price for the full year was $1.66, a decrease of $0.02 (-1 Hits: 1
NGPR_2024_Q3.pdf Furthermore, national storage levels for 2024 Q3 were the highest for a third quarter since 2020, when consumption fell in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Storage levels have increased as national production outpaced demand, largely due to mild winters. Independent Hits: 1
NGPR_2022_Q3.pdf 47 wells (42.3%) compared to the same period in the prior year. This uptick in drilling was likely in response to the dramatic increase in prices in late summer. Preliminary data for the fourth quarter show that the number of Hits: 1
NGPR_2022_Q2.pdf and August is up 73.3% from the same period in 2021. The recent uptick in drilling is likely in response to elevated natural gas prices. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Production Volume 1,863 1,852 1,892 1 Hits: 1
NGIFE-2018.pdf as their production falls below the 90 Mcf threshold. Net impact: +$2.7 million The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
NGIFE-2016.pdf of late or disputed fees from previous years. Estimated net impact: -$3.5 million. The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
NGIFE-2015.pdf four. Estimated net impact: +$20.0 million. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 2 The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
NFIB_Feb_2025.pdf beginning balance and statutorily required transfer to Rainy Day Fund. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act • Expires end of year • Behavioral responses possible if decisions delayed • Payment shifting Federal Spending • Significant cuts likely • Medicaid spending down -11% for 2024 (~$5.0 billion Hits: 1
Newsstand_March_2020.pdf NEWS STAND Outlook for Regional Manufacturing Unclear The New York Federal Reserve released its March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Responses gath- ered between March 2 and 10 reveal New York manufacturing executives' waning confidence in general busi- ness conditions across Hits: 1
MTR-2018-05.pdf been weak. A material part of that shortfall is likely due to profit shifting out of tax year 2017 in response to the significant federal corporate rate reduction in December 2017. For the fiscal year, CNIT revenues are $167 million below Hits: 1
MTR-2018-02.pdf are expected to be weak in March through June due to the acceleration of payments into December and January in response to federal tax law changes. Non-motor sales and use tax (SUT) collections were strong in February after a flat Hits: 1
MTR-2015-08.pdf financial crisis left smaller banks in a weaker financial position, and therefore open to acquisitions by larger banks. Second, in response to the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve required banks to hold greater stores of capital, and smaller banks became less Hits: 1
MSC_March_31_2022.pdf near $4.00 International supply and demand dynamics are a factor ▪ Some analysts expect increase in U.S. production in response to growing export demand for LNG ▪ Pennsylvania is 3 rd largest net exporter of energy to other states | behind Texas Hits: 1
MRU-2020-3.pdf months and the estimated impacts included in this release are only preliminary. The status of the outbreak and the government response change rapidly and will have a significant impact on FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21 revenue collections. The IFO Hits: 1
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf Analysis This provision is projected to increase FY 2020-21 other miscellaneous revenues by $100 million. Return of COVID-19 Response Transfers to the General Fund The act provides for a transfer of $50 million from various special funds. This provision Hits: 1
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf 6 0.6 0.6 2.3 Table 4 FY 2020-21 Lottery Fund Quarterly Estimates 1 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Property Tax/Rent Rebate payments (and the Gaming Fund transfers that support those payments) that would have Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2020.pdf Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation. Personal consumption fell 10.0% from the same period in the prior year as the nation responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation efforts. Used Car Prices See Strong Gains in August The U.S. Bureau Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf and home equity line of credit debt fell by 8.9% (-$74 billion) and 8.6% (-$34 billion), respectively. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government allowed forbearance on mortgage and student loans for six months (renewable), while Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_March_2021.pdf due to the rehiring of support staff furloughed during the longer holiday breaks that many colleges and universities observed in response to COVID-19. The accommodations-foodservices sector added 10,000 jobs (+2.9%) in January, remaining 12,800 below the Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2021.pdf all other races and workers of two or more races. For Share of UC Claims, the majority of workers who responded as Hispanic (8.6%) or Unknown (4.5%) when filing a UC claim were moved to the white category to Hits: 1
Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf FY 2019-20. Much of the growth in lottery game sales is likely explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7 billion flowed to state Hits: 1
MER-2014-03.pdf under last year) and 550,000 in February (‐12.7 percent under last year). 1 The weather may also be responsible for modest growth in home prices this February. NAR reports that the average sales price for an existing home in Hits: 1
MER-2013-12.pdf confident and, as a result, have shifted back spending to big ticket items. In 2013 Q3, consum- er purchases were responsible for 1.4 percent of real GDP growth, 1.0 percentage points due to consumer purchases of goods. Business investment Hits: 1
Kling_Presentation.pdf direct communication between CBO and the Congress—in person, by phone, and by email—to explain the agency’s work, respond to questions, and seek feedback. Other types of outreach include the following:  Consultation with outside experts  Presentations on Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2024.pdf Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | June 2024 INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2023.pdf July. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2022.pdf July. Source: Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact_Fee_Update_Outlook_2021.pdf Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE JUNE 2021 PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf late. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf late for 2016 and 2017 and are included in 2018 disbursements. Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf million 2017 Impact fee revenues Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf number of new wells had remained constant from the prior year. E T R The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf paid by horizontal wells. Vertical well fees are 20 percent of horizontal well fees. The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_May_16_2022.pdf Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provided updated estimates for potential property tax replacement revenues proposed under House Bill 13. This letter responds to your April 20 request for additional information related to those estimates. Estimates Adjusted for Effective Dates The IFO projects Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_January_21_2025.pdf The Honorable Wendy Fink Pennsylvania House of Representatives 410 Irvis Office Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Fink: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) update an analysis performed for Representative Frank Ryan in April 2021 Hits: 1
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdf 2023 The Honorable Rosemary M. Brown Pennsylvania Senate 187 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Senator Brown: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide estimates for a proposed two-tier property tax rebate for Hits: 1
IFO_Letter_to_the_SCC.pdf Executive Secretary State Conservation Commission 311 Agriculture Office Building 2301 North Cameron Street Harrisburg, PA 17110 Dear Secretary Brown: In response to Senator Browne’s directive to develop performance measures for the Resource Enhancement and Protection Program (REAP) Tax Credit, the Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Revenue_Analyst.pdf IFO hires staff based solely on professional qualifications, without regard to political affiliation. Position Summary A Revenue Analyst I is responsible for the analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned Hits: 1
IFO_Job_Opportunity_Fiscal_Analyst.pdf affiliation and solely on the basis of their fitness to perform their duties.” Position Summary A Fiscal Analyst I is responsible for the analysis, monitoring and tracking of assigned revenue and budget area(s). Analysts will (1) provide support (if assigned Hits: 1
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf as their production falls below the 90 Mcf threshold. Net impact: +$2.7 million The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
IFO-RTK-Request-Form.pdf Office Right-to-Know Law Request Form (Internal IFO Use Only) Received via: ___Email ___US mail ___Fax Date Received: ______________ Response Due: ______________ To: Mathieu Taylor Open Records Officer Independent Fiscal Office 2nd Floor Rachel Carson State Office Building Harrisburg, PA 17105 Email Hits: 1
House_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2022.pdf Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter and the attached table respond to a request for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office. Representative Bullock requested Hits: 1
House Budget Hearing Request.pdf The Honorable Stan Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Dunbar asked Hits: 1
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf The Honorable Stan Saylor Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Saylor: This letter responds to requests for additional information raised at the recent budget hearing for the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO). Representative Grove requested Hits: 1
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf Conference Summary  It appears that economic growth has downshifted again heading into summer.  A combination of factors are responsible: 1. A warm weather “pull forward” of economic activity into February and March. 2. Uncertainty: Europe, election, tax and spending Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf University. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Swagel was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department, where he was responsible for analysis of a wide range of economic issues, including policies relating to the financial crisis and the Troubled Asset Hits: 1
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf Due to programs that were not appropriated from the General Fund in FY 2018-19 (i.e., Agriculture Preparedness and Response ($34 million), Animal Health and Diag- nostic Commission ($11 million), Transfer to Farm Show Products Fund ($5 million), Agricultural Business Hits: 1
Electricity_Update_2024.pdf most impacted by COVID-19 (2020-2021) when prices converged, and (3) a third phase when both prices surged in response to high natural gas prices before diverging. From 2021 Q1 to 2022 Q4, the Pennsylvania price increased by 33.8% Hits: 1
Economic_Forecast_Business_Leadership_Summit_Feb_2024.pdf Good Afternoon. On Today’s Agenda…. PA Economy What happened to that recession? Some Caveats Data quality has deteriorated. Lower response rates. Larger revisions. 3 Bold Predictions Feb 2024 Economic Summit Slide 1 March 2020, economy shuts down. What changed? Some Hits: 1
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf 51 Professional Health Monitoring Prog. 3 Administration 18 Campaign Finance & Civic Engage. 1 Hazardous Materials 4 State Athletic Commission 1 Response Operations 4 Total 117 OSFC Training and Certification 3 Total 566 Total Year 2 PBB Agency Funding 23,146 Share Hits: 1
DotPlotData.xlsx part of the year or partial days. An exact amount of tuition for the students that the district was financially responsible for but were fully enrolled at another LEA as of the first day in October could not be determined, but Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf continue to decline through 2030 (2.4 for Pennsylvania, 2.7 for the United States). The downward trend directly cor- responds to the retirement of Baby Boomers and the resulting contraction of the working-age population. Figure 2.2 illustrates the Hits: 1
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf decline through 2030 (2.3 for Pennsylvania, 2.7 for the United States). The downward trend directly cor- responds to the retirement of Baby Boomers and the resulting contraction of the working-age population. Figure 2.2 illustrates the challenges that Hits: 1
Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf and are projected to do so again in 2022 as the economy recovers from recession and temporary provisions enacted in response to the pandemic expire. Those receipts are projected to rise again after 2025 because of the scheduled expiration of some Hits: 1
Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf Chairman House Appropriations Committee 245 Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Chairman Grove: This letter and the embedded tables respond to requests for additional information raised at the recent roundtable hearing on January 31, 2024. Representative Kutz asked if there Hits: 1
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf four. Estimated net impact: +$20.0 million. Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 2 The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
Budget Hearings Packet.pdf office published cost analyses of nine proposed collective bargaining agreements pursuant to Act 14 of 2016. Finally, the office is responsible for coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans pursuant to Hits: 1
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf office published cost analyses of nine proposed collective bargaining agreements pursuant to Act 14 of 2016. Finally, the office is responsible for coordinating analyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans pursuant to Hits: 1
Boyd PA IFO November 2016.pdf Even if plans hit compound-return targets over 30 years, it will be a roller coaster ride. How will govts respond? Three simulations, from our model, that hit 7.5% compound average return by year 30: • 7.5% every year – ( Redline Hits: 1
Act_25_Letter_Feb_2022.pdf M. Grove Pennsylvania House of Representatives 7 East Wing, Main Capitol Building Harrisburg, PA 17120 Dear Representative Grove: This letter responds to your request that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) provide updated estimates for the reduction in school property taxes due Hits: 1
Act_1_Index_Update_Nov_2023.pdf That relationship reversed in FY 2020-21, as an abnormally low number of school districts raised their millage rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The figure below displays (1) the annual growth rate in school district property tax revenues Hits: 1
2025_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf 869 48 1.3 Note: Dollar millions. PIT is personal income tax. Tax Cuts- Jobs Act • Assumes full extension • Behavioral response possible if decisions delayed • Payment shifting Federal Spending • Significant cuts likely • Medicaid spending already down • Impact unclear at this time Hits: 1
2024_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf This is the national benchmark price for the sale of natural gas. Effective Tax Rate Impact fee collections do not respond proportionately to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and do not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
2023_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf by the IFO. 2023 Impact Fee Estimate INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate Impact fee collections do not respond proportionately to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and do not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
2022-Impact-Fee-Estimate.pdf distributed in July. 2022 Impact Fee Estimate INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate Impact fee collections do not respond proportionately to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and do not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
2021_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf and Distributions 2021 Impact Fee Estimate INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school district property tax forecasts in response to legislative requests and public interest. This report provides an updated forecast to facilitate discussion of proposals that contemplate changes Hits: 1
2020_Impact_Fee_Estimate.pdf remitted late. 2020 Impact Fee Estimate INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural gas or the volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax Hits: 1
2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf for 2013. The second chart below displays the “pull-forward” of dividends as estimated by IHS Global Insight. This behavioral response increases 2012 taxable income at the expense of 2013. Personal Income Tax – Quarterly Estimated Payments The final quarterly payment for Hits: 1
2001_hr266.pdf 2 and the State Employees' Retirement System are directed to 3 provide all relevant information and staff assistance, in 4 response to the issues above, to the Public Employee Retirement 5 Commission upon request; and be it further 6 RESOLVED, That Hits: 1
Releases its May 20 initial revenue estimate. Full Report Retail Delivery Fee Revenue Estimates April 23, 2025 | Economics and Other In response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a brief that provides revenue estimates for a statewide retail delivery fee. Full Hits: 1