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Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

Tags: analysis, pension, sers

Summary and Analysis of Annual sers Stress Test Report

Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (sers) recent stress test report. Based on sers baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $17.8 billion in General Fund revenues (1.5%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance and member salary growth to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions.

12/01/2022

Financial Impact of sers Pre-Funding Option

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain sers employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all sers employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

06/09/2022

Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the Psers state share

11/16/2017

ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) and Korn Ferry Hay Group, actu- ary for the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). The proposal amends the retirement codes to (1) require most new employees to select one of three new plan design options and (2) make actuarial funding changes applicable to SERS. The plan de- sign options include two hybrid plans consisting of defined benefit and defined contribution compo- nents. The third

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2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

National Conference of State Legislatures – Appendix III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 “Sudan Company Rankings” Sudan Divestment Task Force – Appendix IV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 PSERS and SERS Correspondence with Companies Doing Business with Sudan -v- Table of Contents (Cont’d) Part VI. Appendices (Cont’d) – Appendix V . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 “The Terrorism Investments of the 50 States” The Center for Security Policy – Appendix VI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295 Companies held by SERS and PSERS which may be Targeted for Divestment (at June 30, 2007) – Appendix VII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307 House Resolution No. 263 (2003

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

retiree healthcare benefits to the spouses of deceased, retired Commonwealth employees who were members of the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and who had participated in the Common- wealth’s Retired Employee Health Program (REHP). The report contains a discussion of funding for medical insurance for surviving spouses of deceased employees who are both members of the State Employees' Retirement System (SERS) and eligible to participate in the Retired Employee Health Program (REHP). Retired Employee Health Program The REHP is administered by

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

pension plans. In addition, the Commission issued an open call for interested parties to express their ideas, and conducted a series of public hearings in the autumn of 2012 for that purpose.On behalf of the Commission, I hereby submit the institutions and organizations, and the nature and effect of reform efforts undertaken in other jurisdictions. The Commission further conducted a series of public hearings and invited the participation of any person or organization with an interest in this issue and solicited

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

participant 6 $34.7 $37.5 $41.0 $42.2 $44.1 $39.8 Child Care and Quality Services Children served by Child Care Works 103,332 109,229 109,235 107,348 75,392 98,200 % Enrolled in STARS 3 Data by calendar year. Data exclude supplemental payments. Calculation based on state capitated payments and a monthly average of individuals served in HCBS and nursing facilities (NF). 1 Share of nursing facility clinically eligible (NFCE) individuals served by HCBS. 5 Data

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

of Pennsylvania’s state and public education employees are mandated to be members of either the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) or the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS). (Certain State employees may elect not to participate in SERS, while certain employees in public schools and higher education institutions may elect membership in an employer approved alternative retirement plan

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Forestry Camps (YDCs/YFCs), the Juvenile Court Judges Commis- sion (JCJC) developed a method to report recidivism rates for youth served at YDCs/YFCs. In order to track and evaluate longer-term outcomes, the IFO recommends that DHS work with JCJC to annually collect and report recidivism data for youth served at these facilities. The Pennsylvania Department of Education pro- vides educational programs for YDC/YFC youth and this report includes

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

the retirement systems. Current Pennsylvania Practice The Commonwealth has provided COLAs to retired members of the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) every four or five years beginning in 1968. Method of Implementation Ad percent- age of payroll COLA contribution rate (approx. 0.3%) as an ongoing component of the employer contribution rates of SERS and PSERS in order to pre-fund a portion (25%) of the costs incurred in the provision of future COLAs

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

Assembly Act 128 of 2020 amended Title 71 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes to require the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) to conduct an annual stress test of the system and submit the results to the Governor, the General Assembly and the report entitled Commonwealth of Pennsylvania State Employees’ Retirement System: 2022 Stress Testing and Risk Assessment produced and certified by SERS and its contracted actuary. Revenue projections were performed by the IFO using data from IHS Markit and the IFO’s

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

related to COVID-19, therefore many traditional in-person resources were suspended during the pandemic. The number of older adults served in senior community centers, adult daily living centers and PDA-endorsed evidence-based health programs all declined in FY 2019- activity are (1) to provide pharmaceutical assistance to eligible older Pennsylvanians and (2) to maintain an extensive pharmacy network to serve Pennsylvanians who utilize state sponsored pharmacy programs. The expected outcomes are to (1) provide quality care and outreach for participating

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RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf

Introduced as House Bill 1982, Act 105 of 2019 allows certain employers that participate in the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) to pre-fund (i.e., make advance payments) between 75% to 100% of their computed share of SERS’ unfunded actuarial liability (UAL). Agreements to make advance payments must be (1) entered into with SERS by December 31, 2024

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

on demographic and economic forecasts: • General Fund expenditures will outpace revenues, assuming no further policy actions to bring the two series into balance. • Demographic trends will cause significant growth in the number of residents eligible for Medical Assistance, creating budgetary pressures fiscal years due to various economic and technical factors. Policymakers will also make many unanticipated decisions that will affect both series. For these reasons, five-year revenue and expenditure projections are best viewed as a neutral benchmark against which readers may

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Pensions

into law on June 12, 2017, Act 5 amends Titles 24 and 71 to provide new members of PSERS and SERS with three retirement benefit options. The new plan designs would be applicable to most public employees hired by school or state employers beginning July 1, 2019 (PSERS) or January 1, 2019 (SERS). The new plan options include two “side-by-side” hybrid retirement plans and a third stand-alone defined contribution (DC

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

3% per annum. During that time, the state economy partially reverts to pre-COVID patterns as consumers shift spending towards ser- vices, labor force participation rates increase, and asset markets resume long-term trends. For FY 2021-22, General Fund expenditures March 2020 (63.5% to 61.4%), which is the largest monthly percentage point drop in the history of the series (started in 1976). The U.S. rate fell 2.4 percentage points (62.6% to 60.2%) and is also

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

to recruit, train and develop a workforce of over 4,500 sworn officers that reflects the diversity of the residents served through programs such as the Bigs in Blue, Cadet Life Tour and Mentoring Program. ▪ Developing and maintaining training and certification communication Officer Recruitment and Development Develop a distinguished and diverse workforce Community Partnerships and Engagement Build positive relationships with citizens served Administration and Support Provide organizational leadership and support PSP: Activities and Primary Services Provided Pennsylvania State Police Overview | Page 4

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

their purchasing power. Low inflation and a strong labor market have caused a significant divergence in those two series for recent years, which enhances consumer confidence and bolsters spending.  Average wage gains also reflect the types of new jobs that very different picture emerges if the base year is moved forward. Figure 4.2 shows the same data series but uses FY 2010-11 as the base year. This graph illustrates that revenues track economic growth much closer in the absence

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

for the Philadelphia metro region is 7.8% year-over-year growth (October 2022). Figure 3.1 displays the inflation series for the All Items CPI-U, the CPI-U excluding Shelter and the Core CPI-U (excludes the volatile food and energy components). The series that excludes Shelter is a better measure of actual consumer spending because it omits the large, imputed homeowner rent component

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

added staff and five new driver license centers to address the increased workload. Data reveal that the share of customers served in under 30 minutes declined by 28 percentage points from FY 2016- 17 to FY 2019-20. However, it is 3,299 3,103 2,923 2,185 -- Motor voter applications 284 256 247 257 228 -- Outcome 2 % DLC customers served in ≤ 30 minutes 3 83% 84% 69% 65% 56% -- % Online transactions 4 58% 61% 70% 74% 78% -- % Real IDs issued

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

the quarters prior to the pandemic, while payroll jobs expanded by roughly one percent. The differential be- tween these two series represents the growth of the average wage paid to all workers. Prior to the pan- demic, that differential or rate provide detail based on department and expenditure category. Notable factors not mentioned above include:  The State Employee Retirement System (SERS) and Pennsylvania School Employee Retirement System (PSERS) contribution growth rates continue to moderate after many years of significant growth. For

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 7/15/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive & retired) 233,734 609,776 Fund Assets $27.2 billion $53.3 billion 10-

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 4/11/2016 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (excludes inactive) 229,714 479,643 Fund Assets $25.8 billion $51.7 billion 10‐Year

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

2015  Role of the Independent Fiscal Office.  Snapshots of the major state pension plans: • State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). • Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS).  Useful terms in the pension debate: • Defined benefit plans. • Act 120, rate collars Data in this presentation generally are derived from the comprehensive annual financial reports, actuarial valuations and budget materials published by SERS and PSERS. 3/26/2015 3 Independent Fiscal Office SERS 1 PSERS 2 Members (active, inactive & retired) 231,633 609

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ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdf

leave granted to an active member or active participant by an employer for purposes of working full time for or serving full time as an officer of a Statewide employee organization or a local collective bargaining representative under the act of Representatives and shall consist of one member from the majority and one member from the minority. The legislative members shall serve on the board for the duration of their legislative terms and shall continue to serve until 30 days after the

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

current and future impacts to the systems. • Act 5 of 2017: For both state systems, the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS), the act established three new retirement classes (six total) for new employees hired on or after January 1, 2019 (SERS) or July 1, 2019 (PSERS). In lieu of traditional defined benefit plans, Act 5 established two hybrid defined benefit and

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

in the last legislative session to imple- ment the JRI-2 policy proposals, which include:  Make time served for short sentences to state prison more predictable. For inmates with sentences to state prison of 24 months or less, this proposal annually to county IP 1 2,930 4,860 5,182 4,825 4,073 4,200 Individuals served by PSCs 1 3,222 5,000 6,192 8,060 10,714 11,500 Individuals served in county jail-based MAT

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18 Historical Spot Prices 19 Impact Fee Research Brief 20 PSERS and SERS Trends Employer Contribution Rates 22 Decomposition of Employer Rates 23 Change in Employer Contributions 24 Funded Ratios for PSERS and SERS 25 Miscellaneous Materials Property Tax Projections 26 State Minimum Wage Levels 27 State Corporate Tax Rates and Other Attributes 28

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

Actuarial Appropriated / Proposed Summary of IFO Expenditures Subtotal Operating Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Census data show that the Pennsylvania sales tax burden is much lower than U.S. average. 15 Pension Outlook The SERS employer contribution rate flat lines after 2018, while PSERS increases modestly. 16 If actuarial assumptions are met (e.g., rates

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

Actuarial Appropriated / Proposed Summary of IFO Expenditures Subtotal Operating Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Census data show that the Pennsylvania sales tax burden is much lower than U.S. average. 15 Pension Outlook The SERS employer contribution rate flat lines after 2018, while PSERS increases modestly. 16 If actuarial assumptions are met (e.g., rates

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

should improve self-service functionality, increase payment and determination timeli- ness and enhance detection of overpayments and fraud. This report serves as a baseline to monitor future program performance under the new system. Job Training and Workforce Development Multiple activities in Increase the overall number of registered apprenticeship opportunities in the Commonwealth. ▪ Expand registered apprenticeship opportunities into non-traditional occupations and serve un- derrepresented populations. 16-17 Actual 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 Actual 21-22

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2004_srpvffinal.pdf

is no direct relationship between the amount of state aid allocated to an FRA and the number of volunteer firefighters served by the FRA. In calendar year 2002, a total of $51.1 million 5 was distributed to the Commonwealth’s survey, interviewing plan administrators, legal staff, plan actuaries, and other officials as necessary. The survey respondents were asked a prepared series of questions concerning the characteristics of the subject plans. The Commission staff also requested, obtained and reviewed data from various

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

FY 21-22, the transfer is $52.1 million. Agency Overview | Page 5 Appropriations K-12 Special Ed. Student Supp. Servs. Post. & Higher Ed. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total General Fund - State 1 $10,046 $1,417 $1,136 state funds to existing Head Start grant- ees to increase the number of low-income, Head-Start eligible children they serve and/or to expand the length of the Head Start day or year for children. The primary goals or outcomes

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

Statement The Department of Military and Veterans Affairs (DMVA) is a diverse team of professionals who strengthen our commonwealth by serving our veterans and partners, while preparing military personnel to safeguard our way of life. Services Provided For this report, the other nursing homes in the Com- monwealth, ratings vary across veterans homes. The U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Ser- vices (CMS) provides monthly ratings for nursing homes. In January 2021, the weighted average of the overall CMS rating was

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

in the last legislative session to imple- ment the JRI-2 policy proposals, which include:  Make time served for short sentences to state prison more predictable. For inmates with sentences to state prison of 24 months or less, this proposal inmates convicted of property or drug offenses. In 2014, approximately 34.0 percent of Pennsylvania state inmates were serving sentences related to drug or property crimes. The average for the 39 states reporting data to the National Corrections Reporting Program was

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

S. and PA Consumption .............................................................................. 17 2018 Impact Fee Estimate ...................................................................................................... 18 Pension Systems Data ............................................................................................................... 20 Employer Contribution Rates for PSERS and SERS ...................................................... 21 Funded Ratios for PSERS and SERS .................................................................................... 22 Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................................. 23 Corporate Net Income Tax by State .................................................................................... 24 Performance-Based Budgeting (PBB) and Tax

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

Burden Comparison ........................................................................................... 19 Property Tax Data ....................................................................................................................................... 20 Natural Gas Production and Spot Prices ............................................................................................ 21 Natural Gas Price Trends ($/mmbtu) ................................................................................................... 22 SERS and PSERS Employer Contributions Rates and Funding Ratios ...................................... 23 SERS and PSERS Financial Data .............................................................................................................. 24 Minimum Wage Rates by State ............................................................................................................. 25 PA Workers Affected by a $12 Minimum Wage (2018

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

3% -0.3% Higher Education 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% PSERS/SERS 601 858 1,222 1,605 1,999 2,130 2,256 Basic Education Subsidy 7,082 7,137 7 0.3% 0.3% MA Population 1.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% SERS 31 68 97 127 158 191 215 Medical Assistance 4,857 4,952 5,134 5,335 5,545 5

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House_State_Gov_Comm_Presentation_August_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education ($825 million in 2021). • Act 128 of 2020: Enacts administrative and reporting changes for SERS and PSERS. The act requires both systems to conduct prescribed stress testing of their systems. The IFO will compile those employer pension contributions to projected state revenues. August 19, 2021 1 State Pension System Funding Outlook August 19, 2021 2 SERS 1 PSERS FY Ending Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

3 Productions that are eligible for the tax credit include feature films, television films, talk or game show series, pilots or episodes intended as programming for a national audience, commercials and documentaries. Current law provides a base credit of 25 percent Act 43 of 2017. 4 The 60 percent requirement may be waived for feature films, television films or series meeting specified criteria. 5 Report to the General Assembly, Film Production Tax Credit Program, FY 2017-18, DCED. Overview of the FPTC

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

Provided Food distributed by SFPP (million lbs) 2 39.8 34.2 38.3 25.4 47.0 30.0 # Served by SFPP (000s) 894 860 730 927 1,700 1,000 Food distributed by PASS (million lbs) 2 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.3 8.2 4.1 # Served by PASS (000s) 460 329 484 539 1,499 600 Producers providing food to PASS 56 73 66 66 84

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

2,439 -- # Community Water Systems (CWS) statewide 1,999 1,989 1,966 1,957 1,958 -- Residents served by a CWS (millions) 10.6 10.6 11.4 11.4 11.5 -- Output # Applications disposed 1,755 2,159 1 87% 86% 90% Avg. response time for all complaints (days) 5 8 7 6 4 4 Outcome % Population served by CWS that meets all health-based (HB) drinking water standards 94% 92% 92% 77% 86% 90% % CWS that meet HB drinking

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Independent Fiscal Office

in February Economics and Other January 27, 2023 The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact to develop statewide and county-level tabulations of production volume and well counts. ... (Full Report) Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report Pension Analysis December 01, 2022 Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

to improve distressed areas and support low-income pop- ulations. 2 Eligible projects include: affordable housing, community economic development, community ser- vices, education, neighborhood assistance, neighborhood conservation, crime prevention, job training and charitable food assistance. 3 The NAP Tax Credit includes follows: Goals ▪ Revitalize distressed areas through community development, educational assistance and job train- ing. ▪ Encourage private investment in projects that serve distressed neighborhoods and communities. ▪ Improve living conditions in distressed areas through the construction and restoration of affordable housing sites and

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

the activity and reducing the risk to the developer. It is typically expected that successful reha- bilitation projects serve to generate additional economic and social benefits to an area. Because of these positive spillover effects associated with the rehabilitation efforts, there may be an underinvestment in these projects in the absence of government intervention. Therefore, providing the credit serves to address this underinvestment. 8 From these excerpts, it is clear that states regard the main purpose of the HPTC is to

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

grants. This provision is expected to reduce FY 2019-20 PIT withholding revenues by $15 million. Transfer to SERS - Defined Contribution Fund The administration’s proposal creates a PIT transfer to the Defined Contribution Fund for costs associated with the SERS Defined Contribution Plan. This one-time transfer is expected to reduce FY 2019-20 PIT withholding revenues by $4 million. Resource Enhancement

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

of the state population lived in an area designated as a Health Professional Shortage Area for primary care ser- vices. Residents affected by a shortage of dental and mental health professionals comprise even larger shares of the state population, at 15 State Health Care centers in 59 counties, (2) grant funds to address the health care needs in communities served by local health departments, school districts and medically underserved populations, (3) a high quality, efficient and compliant medical marijuana program to residents

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2021.pdf

For the PPI, the latest data show YOY growth of 8.6%, which is the strongest rate since the current series was published in 2010. In addition to higher prices for labor, energy and raw materials, analysts point to transportation bottlenecks factors that drive inflationary pressures. The CPI measures displayed in the graph use the All Items less Shelter index. That series excludes the Shelter component of the CPI because most of that component is rent imputed to homeowners, and does not

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

range of economic issues, including policies relating to the financial crisis and the Troubled Asset Relief Program. He has also served as chief of staff and senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers in the White House and as an 4 Jul 22 62.3 LFPRs Needed to Facilitate 50,000 New Jobs per Annum November 15, 2022 7 Published Series Adults age 16+ +0.5 ppts each year Adjusted Series Adults age 16-74 only Age 75+ LFPR = 8% +0

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

Tax ................................................................................... 15 Impact Fee and Natural Gas Trends ....................................................................... 16 State and Local Tax Burden: Average Tax Rate and Rank ........................................ 17 SERS and PSERS Financial Data ............................................................................. 18 Tax Credit and Economic Development Incentives ................................................... 19 Minimum Wage Rates by State .............................................................................. 21 PA Worker Rank Corporate Income Personal Income Sales and Use Property Liquor, Tobacco, Game Total Taxes Independent Fiscal Office 18 March 2021 SERS and PSERS Financial Data FY $ State % System Unfunded $ State % System Unfunded Ending Contrib Return Liability Contrib Return Liability 2011 $392

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2002_drop_report.pdf

currently exists among public sector plans. Design Characteristics of Public Sector DROPs Retirement System Name Participant Eligibility Years of Credited Ser- vice (YCS) and Age Max DROP Period in Months Credited to DROP Account Payment Options Monthly Benefit Member Contributions COLA 20 YCS or Age 60 and 10 YCS None Yes Yes Yes Yes Single lump sum or periodic payments Louisiana SERS 30 YCS; or 25 YCS and age 55; or 10 YCS and age 60 36 Yes No No No Lump

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

7 percent) growth rates are consistent with the long-term potential of both economies, and those rates can serve as a baseline forecast in the absence of a boom or recession. However, in per capita terms, the U.S. and Pennsylvania by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The two series trend closely because they generally reflect the same economic metric: wages and salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents. For 2018, total wages-salaries

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

Laws For Pennsylvania Local Governments Public Employee Retirement Commission Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Revised: January 2009 This publication is intended to serve as a general guide to selected Pennsylvania local government pension laws, and is not intended as a comprehensive guide to orders. The retirement system board, administrator of the retirement system, or employer of the convicted individual is required, upon being served with a copy of the court’s order, to pay over all retirement pay, contributions, or other benefit amounts to

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PICPA_NPG_Presentation_2021_07.pdf

Accounting Conference Matthew Knittel, Director Independent Fiscal Office July 13, 2021 State Pension System Funding Outlook July 13, 2021 1 SERS 1 PSERS FY Ending Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability Empl. Rate $ State Contrib System Return Unfunded Liability is 5-year performance as noted in system CAFR. Unfunded Liability is final year UAL. Calculations by the IFO. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 SERS 2020 employer contributions include $1

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Venango, Washington and Westmoreland Fiduciary and Supported Counties Note: This table lists the counties that serve as a fiduciary agent for a group of counties within a region. For example, Elk County serves as the fiduciary for the 10-county North West region. The 10 counties share a 911 network, 911 call handling equipment, computer

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

7 percent) growth rates are consistent with the long-term potential of both economies, and those rates can serve as a baseline forecast in the absence of a boom or recession. However, in per capita terms, the U.S. and Pennsylvania by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The two series trend closely because they generally reflect the same economic metric: wages and salaries paid to Pennsylvania residents. For 2018, total wages-salaries

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Monthly_Economic_Update_January_2022.pdf

highest YOY growth rate since December 1990. The graph below shows the All Items CPI-U and two other CPI series for the metro region. The CPI Less Shelter series excludes three components related to housing: rent of a primary residence (5.5% of CPI, up +3.6%), imputed rent

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MER-2014-04.pdf

shown in the graph, the commer‐ cial volume measure is more volatile than real pri‐ vate GSP, but the two series typically trend togeth‐ er. The correlation between the growth rates of the two series is roughly 94 percent, which suggests that changes in the two series are motivated by the same factors. Since the

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

Over FY 22-23 growth 3 years Notes Personnel Costs Wages $2,988 $29 $93 Wage contracts expire June 2023 SERS and PSERS $3,980 S&P 500 down 13% for YTD Healthcare $999 $9 $31 Program Costs K-12 Education column increases assumed growth rate by 1 ppt each year over 3 years. Amount is extra spending in third year. SERS-PSERS and Debt Service are excluded because the short-term impact of higher inflation is less clear. 4 Inflation Erodes

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

4.9% Debt 1,128 1,111 2.8% -1.4% PSERS 1,719 2,064 48.5% 20.1% SERS 665 787 24.8% 18.4% All Other 2,882 2,943 3.3% 2.1% General Fund $30,127 $31,766 3.3% 5.4% Note: millions of dollars. PSERS is Public School Employees’ Retirement System and SERS is State Employees’ Retirement System. Source: IFO Five-Year Outlook Reports and Executive Budgets. Pensions – Employer Rates February 28, 2017

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2001_hr266.pdf

two 6 Statewide pension plans, the Public School Employees' Retirement 7 System (PSERS) and the State Employees' Retirement System 8 (SERS); and 9 WHEREAS, Nearly all full-time and part-time public school 10 employees are required to join PSERS and most full-time and 11 part-time State employees are required to join SERS; and 12 WHEREAS, Both systems are financed through employer and 13 employee contributions and investment earnings, with the 14 employer

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

ten weeks instead of six weeks.  Net profits fall by 10 and 15 percent. During the Great Recession, this series declined by 9.5 percent for tax year 2009.  Capital gains fall by 15 and 25 percent and dividends fall by 10 and 20 percent. In tax year 2008, these two series declined by 53.7 and 13.9 percent, respectively. In tax year 2009, they declined again by 39.2 and

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

employees earned above $15.00 per hour. 39 For this analysis, tipped occupations include: bartenders, wait staff, food servers, hosts/hostesses, barbers, hair- dressers, miscellaneous personal appearance workers, miscellaneous personal care and service workers, baggage han- dlers and gaming service workers they qualify for Medical Assistance. 5 WIC benefits are based on the FY 2019-20 income guidelines. It serves new mothers and infants and children under 5 years old. WIC benefits 5 Table 2.8 Impact of Increase in Hourly Wage

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

compensation that falls below the federal minimum and most are employees who traditionally earn tips, such as food servers and bartenders. Employers may pay less than the federal minimum if a tipped worker earns at least $30 per month in tips and less than $12.00. For 2017, there were 117,500 workers employed as bartenders (12,300), food servers (68,200), other servers (11,500), taxi drivers (7,500), hairdressers (11,800), and other tipped occupations (6,200). It is unclear

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PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf

services (%) 44.0% 48.0% 55.0% 64.0% 69.0% -- Avg. wait time of caller (seconds) -- -- -- -- 8.3 -- People served - Universal (000s) -- 6,819 8,911 12,639 11,177 -- People served - Selective (000s) -- 249 216 236 266 -- People served - Indicated (000s) -- 18 16 16 16 -- Evidence-based/informed prevention services -- 68%

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdf

uses a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that corrects for the serial correlation and heteroskedasticity often encountered in time series regressions. For all regressions, diagnostic checks were performed to confirm that regression residuals were normally distributed, uncorrelated and had constant variance over 3.4 percent increase) for 2021. The deduction of Taxes from Cash Income yields Disposable Cash Income. That series provides the most complete measure of income that is available for spending or consumption. The forecast projects that DCI will increase to

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdf

uses a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that corrects for the serial correlation and heteroskedasticity often encountered in time series regressions. For all regressions, diagnostic checks were performed to confirm that regression residuals were normally distributed, uncorrelated and had constant variance over 3.9 percent increase) for 2020. The deduction of Taxes from Cash Income yields Disposable Cash Income. That series provides the most complete measure of income that is available for spending or consumption. 3 All taxes are displayed on a cash

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

But forecast assumes federal tax cut.  Uncertainty could impact collections (again).  Healthcare and Pensions drive spending growth.  SERS employer contribution rate projected to fall.  State share of Medicaid expansion increases to 5-6%. Average Annual Growth: FYE 8% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% PSERS 48.5% 20.1% 9.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% SERS 24.8% 19.0% 8.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% All Other 3.2% 2.2% -2.5%

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

20.5% 31.1% -$70 -$50 -$30 -$10 $10 $30 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 PSERS SERS PSERS SERS Employer Contribution Rate Unfunded Liability (billions) Our Guest Speaker Dr. Don Boyd | Director of Fiscal Studies  Rockefeller Institute of

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TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf

5 million to $5.0 million effective for FY 2022-23, and awards are made on a first- come, first-served basis. 4 Tax credits may be utilized against Pennsylvania personal income, corporate net income, bank and trust company shares, title The business application period is October 15 to November 1 annually and credits are approved on a first- come, first-served basis. DCED notifies the Department of Revenue (DOR) of credit eligibility, and DOR conducts a compliance check, after which DCED

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

beginning May 15. All other applicants may file beginning July 1. Appli- cations are processed on a first-come, first-served basis and are approved until all available tax credits are allocated. Applications that are unfulfilled are placed on a waitlist credits before firms that have not previously participated in the program. Because credits are awarded on a first-come, first-served basis, new firms are effectively excluded from the program and current participants are the primary beneficiaries when credit allocations increase

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TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdf

a competitive grant or rebate program and award projects based on projected economic impact (not on a first-come, first-served basis). Grants and rebates also get funds to firms more quickly.  To increase the impact of the tax credit credit has a limited impact on location/business decisions. In addition, VGP applications are awarded on a first-come, first-served basis without regard to the potential economic impact of the award. Converting the tax credit to a competitive grant or

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

be incorporated. These changes would increase the economic and non-economic impacts of the program for the communities served.  Tax credit recipients should be subject to reporting requirements. Potential metrics could include: the geographic location of new MBTI that uses broad- band options. Without requirements, it is less likely that equipment will be placed in an unserved/under- served area because those projects tend to be high cost and offer lower return on the capital investment. This analysis assumes that the

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

Pennsylvania Aircraft Industry For the purpose of this analysis, the IFO was not able to procure a time series of state employment or sales data for the aircraft industry from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) or an industry representative. 8 Therefore to the exemption should increase industry sales and employment. The analysis only considers employment trends because a time series of retail sales is not available at the state level. Although four states in proximity to Pennsylvania have recently enacted aviation related

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

Intellectual Disability 2.14 2.71 0.57 26.6 Wages-Salaries 2.83 3.11 0.28 9.8 SERS/PSERS 3.73 4.01 0.28 7.5 Healthcare/Other 0.85 0.88 0.03 3.0 General 3.03 11.6 3.59 4.3 Wages-Salaries 3.11 3.31 6.5 3.86 4.0 SERS/PSERS 4.01 4.17 4.0 4.70 3.0 Healthcare/Other 0.88 1.07 22.1 1

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

sales rebounded strongly, and to a lesser extent, taxable non-car sales. For 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1, the three series moderated or contracted as the impact of the first EIP faded. However, the third EIP, by far the largest, had Q2. Relative to 2019 Q2, instant ticket sales increased by 31% and SUT collections by 18% to 21%. 4 These series are clearly motivated by EIPs, and the forecast assumes a reversion to historical patterns once the impact fades. Survey data

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RB-2016-02.pdf

programs. The report focuses on economic development incentives that are funded by state government, including those in which local government serves an administrative role. The report excludes programs that are solely funded by local or federal governments. The report classi Ðies ensures inquiries or leads from a business or potential entrepreneur are referred to, and acted upon expeditiously by, the appropriate ser‐ vice provider(s) in the region. Pennsylvania First $37,800 $20,000 Provides grants, loans or loan guarantees to businesses

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RB-2015-04.pdf

hourly compensation that falls below the federal minimum. The most prevalent example is workers who earn tips, such as food servers, bartenders and other service personnel. Employers may pay less than the minimum wage if a tipped employee earns at least of Labor and Industry Ðinds that approximately two‐ thirds of those workers reported an occupation in the food preparation and serving‐related (54 percent) or retail sales and related (13 percent) industries. Hence, many of those workers may have received tips

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

 Non-Recurring Savings, Shifts and Revenues. • Used in FY 2014-15. Not available next fiscal year.  Pension Contributions: SERS and PSERS. • SERS up $131 million (25%) in FY 2015-16. • PSERS up $592 million (51%, state share only).  More Subtle: Rapidly

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

20.5% 31.1% -$75 -$55 -$35 -$15 $5 $25 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 PSERS SERS PSERS SERS Unfunded Liability (billions) Employer Contribution Rate Sources: Actuarial valuations for PSERS and SERS, various years. Pensions Share of GF Expenditures

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_25_2022.pdf

millions. * Denotes value rounds to less than $1.0 million. DHS Metric Highlights The share of long-term living recipients served in home- and community-based settings has increased from 53% to 67% (FY 16-17 to FY 20-21) ▪ Community 41% of children on Child Care Works enrolled in STARS 3 and 4 child care facilities ▪ The number of children served in 2019 was 107,300, which declined to 75,400 in 2020 due to the pandemic | In 2021, the number

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

that recruit, retain and train employees, and related employee benefit programs. The expected outcome is a high-quality workforce to serve Pennsylvania citizens in agencies under the Governor's jurisdiction. 17-18 Actual 18-19 Actual 19-20 Actual 20-21 jurisdiction. It also conducts program reviews when problems are suspected or reported and employment background investigations of high-level appointees, SERS employees and judicial nominees. BLEO works with the Pennsylvania State Law Enforcement Citizen Advisory Commission to improve policing practices within

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

and Records Center | Page 8 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Workload Archive patrons served (000s) 6,209 5,994 5,055 4,520 4,118 4,200 State and local officials trained 1,519 requests for records 15,448 13,000 12,785 9,111 9,027 9,000 Efficiency Cost per Archive patron served $0.46 $0.49 $0.46 $0.58 $0.54 $0.54 Cost per SRC box stored for agencies $3

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

2018-19, highlights of recent agency activity include:  There were 955,000 SNAP households that received benefits, serving 1.8 million adults and chil- dren.  Approximately 115,000 individuals were enrolled in TANF, of which 31,000 were adults Based Budget. The primary goal of this activity is that MA beneficiaries receive timely access to medically necessary ser- vices. The intended outcome is that beneficiaries will be able to live healthy lives and manage their chronic physical health conditions. Resources

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdf

The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that corrects for the serial correlation and heteroskedasticity often encountered in time series regressions. For all regressions, diagnostic checks were performed to confirm that regression residuals were normally distributed, uncorrelated and had constant 152.9 billion (3.9% increase) for 2023. The deduction of Taxes from Cash Income yields Disposable Cash Income. That series provides the most complete measure of income that is available for spending or consumption. The forecast projects that DCI will

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdf

The software uses a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that corrects for the serial correlation and heteroskedasticity often encountered in time series regressions. For all regressions, diagnostic checks were performed to confirm that regression residuals were normally distributed, uncorrelated and had constant 141.6 billion (3.4% increase) for 2022. The deduction of Taxes from Cash Income yields Disposable Cash Income. That series provides the most complete measure of income that is available for spending or consumption. The forecast projects that DCI will

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NAP-2018-03.pdf

IFO | MARCH 2018 1 INTRODUCTION Pennsylvania’s Neighborhood Assistance Program (NAP) encourages businesses to invest in projects that serve distressed areas or support neighborhood conservation. 1 This tax credit program is administered by the Pennsylvania Department of Community and for this purpose. 2 PROGRAM OVERVIEW The Neighborhood Assistance Program utilizes tax credits to encourage private investment in projects that serve distressed or impoverished areas. 3 The program consists of five components, each with specific eligibility requirements and credit award structures

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

sales rebounded strongly, and to a lesser extent, taxable non-car sales. For 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q1, the three series moderated or contracted as the impact of the first EIP faded. However, the third EIP, by far the largest, had 2021 Q2. Relative to 2019 Q2, instant ticket sales increased by 34% and SUT collections by 20% to 22%. These series are clearly motivated by EIPs, and the forecast assumes a reversion to historical patterns once the impact fades. Survey data

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

Includes $825 million prepayment in unfunded liability from the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education. State Pension System Funding Outlook SERS 1 PSERS Note: Dollars in millions. Data sourced from various system projections, releases and financial reports, unless noted otherwise. For is 5-year performance as noted in system CAFR. Unfunded Liability is final year UAL. Calculations by the IFO. 1 SERS reported on calendar year basis except for Employer Contribution Rate. Includes all funds. 2 Includes $1.1 billion prepayment in

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

liaison to NCSL’s Labor and Economic Development Standing Committee and to the Pennsylvania General Assembly. Prior to NCSL, Maher served as a nonpartisan policy analyst for the city of Philadelphia. She received her bachelor’s degree in political science and and inflation gains from COVID Expenditures significant increase in healthcare costs ▪ Unclear how wage pressures and inflation will impact costs ▪ SERS pension costs decline November 15, 2021 3 Four Key Assumptions Inflation decelerates, but does not reverse ▪ Nominal sales and use

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

attempt to address them at end If connection is lost, we will re-establish as soon as possible IFO publishing series that examines end of pandemic programs ▪ SNAP emergency allotments (published last week) ▪ Childcare funding ▪ MA redeterminations January 31, 2023 1 at home (8%) all items durables (11% of CPI) annual growth Philadelphia CPI (share of CPI in parens) Three Minor Series Drive Recent CPI-U Growth January 31, 2023 10 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jun

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TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdf

to provide low-cost capital to eligible communities. CDEs are organizations with a track record of providing capital to under- served areas. The Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund within the U.S. Department of Treasury administers the program, awards the the current program is retained, does the program provide greater benefits to the rural busi- nesses it is meant to serve or to private investment firms? ▪ Should rural growth funds be permitted to retain the credit-eligible contribution amounts? Should this

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

expenses for a tour with concerts held at a Class 1 venue and a Class 3 venue that does not serve alcohol. Applicants may qualify for an additional tax credit equal to 5 percent (maximum of 40 percent total) of the to state sales and use tax due to the rental of various equipment and the purchase of accommodations and food ser- vices. 27 Line 21 The gross return on investment (ROI) for the tax credit. The gross ROI is 19 cents

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

19 “Tax Policy Endogeneity: Evidence from R&D Tax Credits,” Chang, Andrew, Working Paper 2014-101, Federal Re- serve Board (November 2014). 20 “Economic Development Tax Incentive Evaluation Act: Evaluation of Research and Development Tax Incentive Pro- grams,” Department of Revenue Analysis (October 2016). “Research Tax Credit: Current Law and Policy Issues for the 114 th Congress,” Congressional Research Ser- vice, RL31181 (March 2015). “Tax Policy Endogeneity: Evidence from R&D Tax Credits,” Chang, Andrew, Federal Reserve Board (No- vember 2014). Appendix

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

Geographic (2003). Introduction | Page 4 impacts led to calls for the regulation of single-use plastics. These regulations serve as policy tools that attempt to incentivize consumers, retailers or manufacturers to recognize social and other costs imposed on society by the Carrier Bags: A Review of the Bags Available in 2006.” United Kingdom Environment Agency, 2011. https://assets.publishing.ser- vice.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/291023/scho0711buan-e- e.pdf. Egan, Ted and Kurt Fuchs. “Checkout Bag Charge

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

that the employees earned above $15.00 per hour. 37 For this analysis, tipped occupations include: bartenders, wait staff, food servers, hosts/hostesses, barbers, hair- dressers, miscellaneous personal appearance workers, miscellaneous personal care and service workers, baggage han- dlers and gaming workers report compensation that falls below the federal minimum and most are employ- ees who earn tips, such as food servers and bartenders. Under current law, employers may pay less than the federal minimum if a tipped worker earns at least

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

SUT collections. Prior to CY 2020, there was a high degree of correlation between Cash Income and the two consumption series. For CY 2020, Cash Income surged due to federal stimulus (see Table 1.3), while the two SUT series decelerated or contracted due to mitigation efforts and business closures. Although income grew significantly, many residents used the federal payments

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

SUT collections. Prior to CY 2020, there was a high degree of correlation between Cash Income and the two consumption series. For CY 2020, Cash Income surged due to federal stimulus (see Table 1.3), while the two SUT series decelerated or contracted due to mitigation efforts and business closures. Although income grew significantly, many residents used the federal payments

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

2 Higher rates of inflation also have important implications for public pensions. Table 2 illustrates the impact for the average SERS or PSERS beneficiary who was retired in 2020 after achieving full benefits. The average annual benefit earned was $30,050 for SERS and $29,600 for PSERS. 3 The analysis uses an average benefit amount ($29,820) for the two systems. The

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_27_2021.pdf

10% of driver’s license and ID holders (Dec 2020) ▪ % Online transactions increased 20 percentage points ▪ Key Budget Measure: % Customers served in < 30 minutes April 27, 2021 7 PennDOT Metric Highlights (cont.) Performance measures for local system construction and maintenance funds state spending on evidence-based prevention services Costs of ID waivers have flattened although utilization increased ▪ Large increase of individuals served under the capped Community Living Waiver (+3,294 from FY 15-16 to FY 20-21) instead of the uncapped

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

the issuance of civil citations and summary imposition of fines. Additionally, BEI has the authority to request and serve cease and desist orders, subpoenas and immediate temporary suspension orders on licensees or charitable organizations. The bureau further coordinates, as necessary, with of Corporations and Charitable Organizations maintains the records repository for companies that do business in the Commonwealth and serves as the centralized repository for Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) financing statements. To ensure expedited processing of corporate documents, corporations can register online

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

System Support Services (Addendum) | Page 13 Activity 1: Juvenile Justice System Support Services (Addendum) The following data shall serve as an addendum to the initial Performance Based Budget report for the Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission delivered to the General Assembly on 22, 2019. The follow- ing data are to be used in conjunction with the initial report, and not serve as a replacement for the original measures provided. Data and Performance Measures Selected measures are as follows. Unless noted otherwise, all measures

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MTR-2016-11.pdf

quarter of 2016. The solid blue line represents the number of workers engaged in drilling oil or gas wells. This series peaked in the fourth quarter of 2011 and has since declined by 3,881 jobs (74.7%) through the first quarter of 2016, the last data point for which this series is available. Meanwhile, production of natural gas has more than tripled through the first quarter of 2016, as shown by

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

to reduce FY 2019-20 PIT withholding revenues by $13.3 million. Transfer to State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) (Act 20) The act requires a transfer of $3.9 million from PIT to the SERS restricted account effective July 1, 2019. Prior Law The amount transferred in FY 2018-19 was $5.2 million. Fiscal Analysis This

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Monthly_Economic_Update_September_2021.pdf

Excluding the Shelter component, metro area inflation also decelerated from 6.7% in June to 6.1% in August. That series better reflects inflation for actual consumer purchases because it excludes rent imputed to homeowners. Data Reveal Steep Increase in Rental 0%) and Harrisburg (+19.6%) increased at a higher rate. These strong growth rates are confirmed by a similar time series developed by Zillow, which show that July 2021 rents increased by 6.1% YOY in Philadelphia, 4.8% in Pittsburgh

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2020.pdf

Sharp Decline in Pennsylvania Business Startups On April 8, the U.S. Census Bureau began releasing a weekly state-level series on Business Formation Statistics (BFS). This experimental series provides insight into the pandemic’s impact on Pennsylvania entrepreneurial activity. The BFS tracks business applications for employer businesses as

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MER-2014-05.pdf

year nominal growth rates for large in‐ dustries within three broader categories of (1) private goods‐producing industries, (2) private ser‐ vices‐producing industries and (3) total government. Of these three broad categories, private services in‐ dustries comprise roughly two‐thirds and business services (4.2% growth in 2013:3 and 3.6% growth in 2013:4), health care and social ser‐ vices (3.9% in 2013:3 and 4.0% in 2013:4) and wholesale trade (4.0% in 2013:3

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House_Maj_Policy_Comm_Aug_30_2021.pdf

Tax Burden by County August 30, 2021 4 Rate of Return Sensitivity Analysis for State Pensions August 30, 2021 5 SERS Employer Contributions PSERS Employer Contributions Fiscal Year Underperform ROR by 1.0% Exceed ROR by 1.0% Underperform ROR by 042 -$4,624 Note: Millions of dollars. PSERS includes both state and local school district contributions. Sources: Submissions supplied by SERS and PSERS in accordance with Act 37 of 2020. CreationDate: 2021-08-30 16:14:19 Creator: Microsoft® PowerPoint® for

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

health effects in Oregon, December 2016. Oregon Health Authority. Portland, OR. 2016 December. https://sharedsystems.dhsoha.state.or.us/DHSForms/Served/le8509b.pdf Oregon Public Health Division. Public health consequences of marijuana legalization in Oregon (February 2019). https://www.oregon.gov States: Results from the 2019 National Survey on Drug use and Health (HHS Publication No. PEP20-07-01-001, NSDUH Series H-55). Rockville, MD: Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. Retrieved from

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

see page 49). The table shows total state General Fund pension contributions, including PSERS and the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS). Fiscal Year Published Updated Change 2018-19 $2,530 $2,489 -$41 2019-20 2,692 2,630 -62 2020- dollar millions. State Share Fiscal Year 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 SERS 1 $784 $856 $872 $889 $901 $899 $949 PSERS 2,064 2,264 2,489 2,630 2,738 2

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

that the report did not address. Ultimately, policymakers will determine the level of expenditures that are necessary and appropriate to serve the needs of residents. Thank you. I would be happy to answer any questions that you might have. Background The office was created by Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel has served as director since the inception of the office in September 2011, and he currently supervises a staff of seven. The

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ACN_SB1_technical_corrections_2017_06_05.pdf

members who have more than 25 years of service credit. • On page 5, added that the final average salary for SERS would apply to the five highest calendar years of compensation. Also on page 5, clarified that the final average salary new hazardous duty employees. • On page 7, clarified the amortization starting dates for changes to the unfunded accrued liability of SERS that result from enactment of the bill. Author: MJR Company: Microsoft CreationDate: 2017-06-05 19:23:50 Creator: Acrobat

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

16-17 Sales +0.9% Withhold +3.5% FY 17-18 Sales +3.7% Withhold +4.3% Note: Sales tax series controls for expanded tax base and transfers to various accounts and funds. Series lagged one month to control for payment rules. Mid-Year Update Non-financial domestic profits growth thru 2017 Q3 is

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U recession, and 3) to facilitate consistency of GDP measures across countries. 1 These changes are reflected in the entire time series of GDP (1929 to 2013) and affect GDP growth rates for certain years. Although historical changes affect the level of

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Wage_Contracts_PDA.pdf

benefits are included. Apply a -1.5 percent attrition factor each year to reflect the above adjustment. • Compute a second series that applies the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates. • Compute

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Wage Contract SEIU-FINAL.pdf

are included. Apply a -1.5 percent attrition factor each year to reflect the above adjustment.  Compute a second series that applies the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates. 1

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Wage Contract PFBC-FINAL.pdf

benefits are included. Apply a -1.5 percent attrition factor each year to reflect the above adjustment. • Compute a second series that applies the negotiated step increase to that baseline, taking account of the effective date. • Compute the differential. This represents

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Wage Contract AFSCME-FINAL.pdf

are included. Apply a -2.5 percent attrition factor each year to reflect the two adjustments.  Compute a second series that applies the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates. 1

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TC_Board_Hearing_Jan_10_2023.pdf

credit: maximum 5% higher payroll from newly created jobs ▪ Capped at $4 million annually ▪ Awarded on a first-come, first-served basis January 10, 2023 2 #1 Manufacturing $1.6 million in tax credits authorized by DCED for FY 21-22

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TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdf

may also issue recaptured or unissued credits from prior fiscal years. Tax credits are awarded on a first-come, first-served basis. The MTC can be claimed for a period determined by DCED but cannot exceed (1) five years from the

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TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdf

are awarded to the highest qualified bidders. Bids of equal value are processed and considered on a first-come-first-served basis. If two or more applicants meet eligibility criteria and offer equal bids totaling more than the available credit amount

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

are proposed, in-progress or completed at the time of application. Applications are accepted annually on a first-come, first-served basis starting in the late summer/early fall. Projects that include the purchase of equipment or implementation of structural BMPs

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

leave before providing additional paid leave to the employee. 14 U.S. Code § 6327. Absence in Connection with Serving as a Bone Marrow or Organ Donor. 15 “National Kidney Registry Will Reimburse Donors for Lost Wages,” Healio: Nephrology News and Issues

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

KIZ coordinators could be remunerated with state funds, particularly in larger KIZs. If com- pensated, coordinators might also serve the role of tax credit facilitators.  The statutory program deadlines should be revisited to facilitate a firm’s ability to include

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf

index applicable to each school district (base or adjusted) and weighting it by property tax collections. The weighted average index serves as a statewide maximum percentage increase in property tax collections due to higher millage rates. The base index and its

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

each school district (base or adjusted) and weighting it by FY 2019-20 property tax collections. The weighted average index serves as a statewide maximum percentage increase in property tax collections due to higher millage rates. 3 Act of June 27

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2020.pdf

each school district (base or adjusted) and weighting it by FY 2017-18 property tax collections. The weighted average index serves as a statewide maximum percentage increase in property tax collections due to higher millage rates. The index utilization rate is

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SD-Property-Tax-Forecast-2019.pdf

each school district (base or adjusted) and weighting it by FY 2016-17 property tax collections. The weighted average index serves as a statewide maximum percentage increase in property tax collections due to higher millage rates. The index Table 2: Current-

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

Shelter 67.0 1.0 1.4 5.0 Note: CPI-U weight is relative importance of sub-index. Some series are omitted so weights do not sum to 100%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Growth of PA Cash

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

8 billion (CY 2020) and $20.0 billion (CY 2021). For CY 2020, tipped occupations (e.g., food servers, hair dressers, nail technicians) may have also lost $1 to $2 billion in tip income. By comparison, the analysis estimates that economic

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Response-Letter-2-27-2020.pdf

sex trafficking? DHS issued guidance to agencies currently providing or seeking to provide these specialized services for children and youth served by the county child welfare system. Applications are due March 15, 2020 for providers interested in obtaining certification prior to

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RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf

This research brief is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

labor turnover survey (JOLTS) show state job openings in 2021 Q2 and Q3 at the highest levels recorded for that series. 1 The employment-population ratio is the share of residents employed and is an alternative measure to the labor force

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

total wages paid to U.S. workers. 1 The ECI data show the largest annual gain since publication of that series (2001) with 4.2% year-over-year (YOY) growth and 1.5% growth from the prior quarter (6.0% annualized

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

in the module (2020 Q3). 10 See FRED Economic Data, “Personal Saving Rate,” (accessed May 2021), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT. Independent Fiscal Office Page 9 The current economic situation is highly unusual and recent data provide context for the

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RB-2018-01.pdf

each school district (base or adjusted) and weighting it by FY 2015-16 property tax collections. The weighted average index serves as a statewide maximum percentage increase in property tax collections due to higher millage rates. The index Table 2: Current‐

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

last four years of the forecast (FY 2020-21 through 2023-24), three factors drive lower growth in expenditures: (1) SERS and PSERS employer contribution rates stabilize, (2) a contraction of the school age population restrains the growth of Pre-K-

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

2,000 $2,500 $3,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 SERS PSERS +18.3% +42.8% +18.7% +7.3% +4.1% +4.6% 26 Note: millions of dollars. ~21% increase

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 SERS PSERS Growth in Pension Contributions dollar amounts are in millions 8.Jun.2016 17 Revenues as a Share of State

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

2.8% All Residents 0.3% 0.3% … 0.4% Personnel Expenses Wages 2.3% 2.8% … 3.2% Pensions ‐ SERS 18.0% 3.1% … ‐2.3% Retiree Healthcare 4.8% 5.1% … 5.2% Health – Other Benefits 3.3% 3

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% January 29, 2019 12 Note: Sales tax series controls for expanded tax base and transfers. PIT withholding controls for shifting due dates. FY 17-18 Sales +4.4%

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Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdf

for fiscal years 2013-14 through 2018-19:  Actual expenditures  Filled complement (salary and wage)  Total population served and/or service levels achieved  Performance measures 5 October 15, 2018 Initial List of Agency Activities 6  Criminal

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

28 -47 1 Manufacturing -212 -99 1 TOTAL 389 -178 326 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Series. Excludes self-employed individuals. August.08.2018 16 U.S. Seniors Working More Avg. Annual Growth Rate: 2005-15 Number

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdf

MH Programs): Staff turnover and average wages for contracted or third-party direct care workers that provide care to individuals served through child welfare, intellectual disabilities and mental health services programs Department of Military and Veterans Affairs ▪ Activity 1 – Veterans Homes

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdf

Fund Appropriations (FY 2021-22) March 9, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 School Employees' Ret. 2,543 -- -- $137

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

Fund Appropriations (FY 2021-22) January 26, 2022 3 Appropriations K-12 Special Education Post. and Higher Education Student Supp. Servs. Child Dev. and Early Learning Other Total Basic Education Funding $7,067 -- -- -- -- -- $7,067 School Employees' Ret. 2,543 -- -- $137

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PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf

every Pennsylvania domestic insurer at least once every five years as required by Pennsylvania law and the NAIC. This includes serving as the lead state agency for 121 of the 151 multistate companies operating as domestic insurers in Pennsylvania, on behalf

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

Toyota, we are working to improve the agency’s overall performance dramati- cally over time, albeit through a series of incremental steps that may be more difficult to assess at the level of the overall agency budget. Currently in its infancy

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PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdf

not provide state funding for public defenders.  County criminal justice systems vary significantly in terms of funding, staffing, populations served and workloads. January 22, 2019 9 Recommendations  Enhance the reporting of comparative county criminal justice statistics (Criminal Justice, JCJC

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PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptx

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 Pub. Health Emg. Med. Serv. 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 Vital Statistics 0.0

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PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdf

software package includes a maximum likelihood estimation procedure that corrects for the serial correlation and heteroskedasticity often encountered in time series regressions. For all regressions, diagnostic checks were performed to confirm that regression residuals were normally distributed, uncorrelated and had constant

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

8 billion (CY 2020) and $21.7 billion (CY 2021). For CY 2020, tipped occupations (e.g., food servers, hair dressers, nail technicians) may have also lost $1 to $2 billion in tip income. By comparison, the analysis estimates that economic

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

revenues and (3) sales and use tax (SUT) revenues over a five-year period. The two component income series motivate the projec- tion of these major tax revenue sources. Wages and salaries reflect the compensation paid to payroll employees, and does

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MTR-2017-07.pdf

In June, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updated the Quarterly State Personal Income series for the first quarter of 2017. The data include personal income and its components, which can be decomposed into net

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MTR-2017-06.pdf

disabled. Annual Change in Pennsylvania Employment 1 The QCEW data are used to benchmark the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) series discussed by various media outlets. United States Pennsylvania Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Mar-17 Apr-17

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

but less likely to do so if there is slack. Therefore, an acceleration or slowing of total wage growth can serve as both a coincident (i.e., current or real time) and leading indicator of the state economy. Since 2010, statewide

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MTR-2016-03.pdf

due to above- average employment expansions. For General Fund revenues, the wages- salaries component of gross earnings is a crucial series since it motivates personal income tax collections and, to a large extent, sales and use tax remittances. The preliminary data

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

Plans (Act 42) The act requires PIT transfers of $4.9 million to the State Employee Retirement System (SERS) and $5.2 million to Public School Employee Retirement System (PSERS). Prior Law None. Fiscal Analysis This provision is projected to reduce

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Monthly_Economic_Update_November_2020_Final.pdf

prior year. When the share of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that are goods versus services is viewed in a time series, it highlights differences between spending during the 2008 recession and spending during the COVID-19 recession. During the 2008 recession

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2022.pdf

the U.S. by 0.2 ppts (9.2% vs. 9.0%). As shown by the graph, the two inflation series trend closely, and it is not unusual for Philadelphia metro inflation to exceed the U.S. average for certain time

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

March from 4.7% in February 2021 according to BLS data. This is the largest single month increase in the series’ 21-year history. The higher job openings rate is a sign that economic activity is accelerating and generating increased demand

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

April market rebound helped recover $200 billion of those losses. 2020 Q1 investment data for the State Employees’ Retirement System (SERS) and Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) are slated to be released at the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases

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MER-2014-09.pdf

12,000, or ‐1.2 percent per annum. (See table below.) Nearly all of the reduction occurred in the Postal Ser‐ vice, which contracted by 11,900 payroll jobs (‐3.5 percent per annum). The employment contraction for the Postal Service

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MER-2014-08.pdf

the goods and services purchased by or on behalf of households, combined with the pur‐ chases of nonpro Ðit institutions serving households. The state PCE statistics are available annually, from 1997 to 2012. These data are considered preliminary and are subject

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Of Ðice is conducting further re‐ search into Pennsylvania GSP and plans to publish Ðindings in a new Research Brief series this year. June 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Percentage points. 2 DE and WV are excluded

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MER-2014-02.pdf

Report Independent Fiscal Of Ðice ‐ Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Snapshot: Consumption and the Economy In recent testimony, newly appointed Federal Re‐ serve Chair Janet Yellen informed Congress that the economy has shown unexpected signs of weakness. Yellen noted that some of the

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Letter_to_JSGC.pdf

introduces grammatical and typographical errors that were not part of the original submission. The newly created table and text only serve to confuse readers because they are inconsistent with numerous other studies that were cited in the same sub-section. 2

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

revenues and (3) sales and use tax (SUT) revenues over a five-year period. The two component income series motivate the projec- tion of these major tax revenue sources. Wages and salaries reflect the compensation paid to payroll employees, and does

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

has other statutory duties and undertakes various requests. These include: • coordinate and facilitate actuarial analysis of proposed changes to the SERS and PSERS pension systems; • provide a cost analysis of approved collective bargaining agreements; • provide an economic analysis of revenue proposals

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

Municipal Retirement Board, PA Port Authorities, PA School Employees Retirement System (PSERS), Patient Safety Authority, and State Employees Retirement System (SERS). BY DEPARTMENT ($ millions) CreationDate: 2020-02-28 16:43:17 Creator: Microsoft® Word 2016 ModDate: 2020-03-11 15:25

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

Shelter 67.0 1.4 6.7 7.2 Note: CPI-U weight is relative importance of sub-index. Some series are omitted so weights do not sum to 100%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Durable Goods

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Demographics_Outlook_2022.pdf

16 - This page intentionally left blank. - Regional and National Population Trends | Page 17 Regional and National Population Trends The following series of maps display notable, longer-term demographic trends at the county and national levels. Although state-level data are useful

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

12 - This page intentionally left blank. - Regional and National Population Trends | Page 13 Regional and National Population Trends The following series of maps display notable, longer-term demographic trends at the county and national levels. Although state-level data are useful

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

growth or net migration. Regional and National Population Trends | Page 13 Regional and National Population Trends The following series of maps display notable, longer-term demographic trends at the county and national levels. Although state-level data are useful in the

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Congressional_Budget_Office_Nov_15_2022.pdf

information, see www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data. CBO prepares, and periodically updates, a 10-year budget baseline that serves as a benchmark for measuring the effects of proposed legislation. The baseline reflects the assumption that current laws governing spending

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CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdf

the estimate for behavioral and dynamic effects is subject to much uncertainty, and the estimate used for this analysis only serves as a reasonable and plausible estimate. It was noted previously that estimates for federal CNIT rate reduction used a dynamic

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

Tax 13 1 Independent Fiscal Office - Overview Background The office was created by Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel has served as director since the inception of the office in September 2011, and currently he supervises a staff of eight. Analysts

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Analysis of Recent Collective Bargaining Agreements.pdf

benefits are included. Apply a -1.5 percent attrition factor each year to reflect the above adjustment. • Compute a second series that applies the negotiated general pay increases and step increases to that baseline, taking account of the effective dates. • Compute

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Shelter 67.0 1.4 6.7 7.2 Note: CPI-U weight is relative importance of sub-index. Some series are omitted so weights do not sum to 100%. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. Durable Goods

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2021-SD-Property-Tax-Forecast.pdf

each school district (base or adjusted) and weighting it by FY 2018-19 property tax collections. The weighted average index serves as a statewide maximum percentage increase in property tax collections due to higher millage rates. 3 Act of June 27

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U

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2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

Domestic Product (GDP) The quarterly annualized growth rate of the U.S. econo- my. Excludes inflation. 1 Note: The GDP series was revised to include intangible assets (e.g., intellectual property). Personal Income The year-over-year growth rate of U

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

individuals who have a credit card. Although high debt levels may in- hibit consumer spending, an individual’s ability to ser- vice that debt provides a more informative way to gauge the potential implications of debt for the Pennsylvania economy. The

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2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

home pay. Due to the expiration, it is likely that consumers will reduce their spending on non-essential goods and ser- vices and switch to less expensive substitutes for some of their current expenditures. Spending cuts will largely affect discretionary purchases

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

Suggested Reading 14 1 Independent Fiscal Office - Overview Background The office was created by Act 120 of 2010. Matthew Knittel serves as director for a staff of nine individuals. Analysts generally have backgrounds in economics or other disciplines with a quantitative

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Releases

in February January 27, 2023 | Economics and Other The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact

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Pensions

official without cessation of the benefit recipient's benefit payments, provided that the member does not receive any salary for serving as an elected official. Act 2005 - 89 (Senate Bill Number 394, Printer's Number 1400). Signed into law December 22

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About IFO

published several articles in the National Tax Journal, the NBER and US Treasury's Office of Tax Analysis working paper series. Brenda Warburton Deputy Director Prior to joining the IFO, Ms. Warburton held several positions related to state budgeting and tax

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