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Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

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Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

Economic Impact of Federal stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

05/10/2021

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the tax returns or reported income levels of stimulus fund recipients across four income groups: (1) below $25,000; (2) $25,000 to $49,999; (3) $50,000 to

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

Profits 3.0% -15.0% -25.0% Table 2 CY 2020 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates Notes: Excludes impact of federal stimulus. Corporate profits are domestic profits for non-financial firms. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 The economic growth rates do not reflect the potential impact of federal stimulus. The federal stimulus will support consumer purchases, the rehiring (or retention) of employees and on-going business operations, and should

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue Outlook .................................................................................................... 21 Personal pandemic. The forecast reflects these assumptions for the current calendar year:  Although it is likely that Congress enacts additional stimulus or extensions, the analysis does not incorporate further relief beyond the package passed at the end of CY 2020. 

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, it is not known whether the federal government will enact additional stimulus. If stimulus is enacted, it would increase the revenue estimates contained in this report. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

Additional data from the Pulse Survey indicate that 24.3% of Pennsylvanians spent at least a portion of the federal stimulus payment on their mortgage, while 20.9% of recipients nationwide spent the stimulus payment on their mortgage. Over 20 Percent of Households Used Stimulus Payments to Pay Down Debt Data from the U

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Independent Fiscal Office

released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic- tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus. ... (Full Report) May 2021 Revenue Update Revenue & Economic Update June 01, 2021 The Commonwealth collected $3.95 billion in General

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

workers. Federal UC programs, including PUA, will end in early September. ▪ The American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act, the most recent stimulus legislation, provides FPUC bonus payments of $300 per week through the first week in September. In CY 2020, FPUC pay- to exceed the IFO’s revised official esti- mate by $637 million. The revision is largely attributable to additional federal stimulus that in- creased TY 2020 and TY 2021 profits and behavioral responses to a potential federal corporate tax rate increase

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY 19-20 + FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  Massive federal stimulus temporarily fills underlying structural deficit  IFO estimates at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant  Significant monies now

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Nearly 75% of non-PPP stimulus to residents with < $50k income. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP measures | streamline operations ▪ Telework and travel savings | sales of higher margin products Inflation in housing and stock markets – “wealth effects” Stimulus induced sales are more likely to be taxed ▪ Cars, appliances, home improvement, home entertainment, take out delivery May 26, 2021

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

workers. Federal UC programs, including PUA, will end in early September. ▪ The American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act, the most recent stimulus legislation, provides FPUC bonus payments of $300 per week through the first week in September. In CY 2020, FPUC pay- impact of certain federal tax provisions enacted in response to COVID-19 which increased 2020 taxable profits, (2) additional federal stimulus not included in the original estimate and (3) firms’ response to an anticipated federal corporate tax rate increase. Tax provisions

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  New federal funds available through December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2 21 requested in Executive Budget. For FY 21-22, excludes enhanced FMAP ($2.4 billion) and new American Rescue Plan stimulus. Prior year lapses include transfers to Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Source: IFO Economic and Budget Outlook, FY 20-21 to

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

Federal Stimulus Drives Record Pennsylvania Lottery Sales Through the week ending March 30, fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) lottery game sales are same period in FY 2019-20. Much of the growth in lottery game sales is likely explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7 billion

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

of income merely redistributed in new form? October 29, 2020 14 Looking Forward Projections do not assume new major federal stimulus or closures  The form and timing of stimulus are unclear due to the election  Additional business closures could occur due to recent surge in cases Anticipated drop

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

million, or 11.2% of actual General Fund revenues. 2 The overage was attributable to the enactment of additional federal stimulus (Lost Wage Assistance Program, the Consolidated Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan) after the release of the estimate, which outbreak tracking closely to the official estimate projections; and (5) the FY 2020-21 underprediction error resulted from significant federal stimulus legislation enacted throughout the fiscal year. In addition to the relative size of forecast errors, it is useful to track

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

entertainment | leased space March 17, 2021 10 Alternative Scenarios: High and Low Average Wage Growth High Growth: impact of new stimulus, inflation and early retirements  American Rescue Plan (ARP) injects ~$56 billion into PA economy  Causes faster wage growth Most former workers return to labor force (seek jobs), suppress wage growth  Most jobs return rapidly due to new stimulus, and most are part-time  Lower raises in exchange for remote working and other benefits March 17, 2021 11

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 12.0% 8.0% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) -517 -468 -444 -423 -362 Federal Stimulus ($ billions) $12.6 $3.6 $32.3 $10.8 $5.4 Philadelphia CPI-U All Items 0.4% 0.9% over-year change and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

points lower than 2010. A portion of the slower real growth can be attributed to the waning effect of federal stimulus. Data from the National Income and Product Accounts show that spending by the federal government contributed 0.4 percentage points Outlook Fiscal year 2011-12 marks the first year since FY 2007-08 that the Commonwealth will not receive federal stimulus funds through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). For the past three fiscal years, General Fund expenditures

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?”, NBER Working Paper No. 14753 and Parker, Souleles, Johnson and McClelland, “Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008”, NBER Working Paper No. 16684. 3 Across all consumer expenditures, the average figure is closer to 35

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

income tax payments). Neither the IFO estimate nor the estimate published in the Executive Budget include the most recent federal stimulus (American Rescue Plan). During the hearing, several members also raised questions regarding the revenue proposals contained in the Executive Budget

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

federal matching rate or program eligibility impacts resulting from the recent COVID-19 disruptions and enactment of federal stimulus bills. The largest state savings result from individuals who are no longer eligible for Medical Assistance. DHS estimates that roughly 48,400

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

million, 12.9%) and motor vehicle collections (+$37.1 million, 25.3%). SUT collections in April were bolstered by federal stimulus payments that began arriving in March as a result of the American Rescue Plan Act. FYTD SUT collections of $10

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released state-level data on personal income, but adjusted withholding

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

suggest that $3.2 billion was used for personal consumption expenditures. When surveyed about the expected use of a second stimulus payment, respondents reported a smaller MPC of 24.2% indicating that 45.0% of a second payment would be saved

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

as national auto loan delinquencies remain relatively low. However, delinquencies may rise in the fall with the expiration of federal stimulus programs. Summer Natural Gas Prices at Highest Level Since 2014 As noted in a recent WSJ article, natural gas production

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

7.3% in 2020 Q2 due to an influx of state and federal support through UC payments and other economic stimulus measures. Household Debt Declines for the First Time Since 2014 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November 2019

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

Various long-term demographic concerns ▪ Declining birth rates | Contracting labor force ▪ Rapid growth age 80+ (healthcare costs accelerate) Additional federal stimulus would impact state budget outlook ▪ Current proposal includes $350 billion for state and local fiscal recovery ▪ Estimated amounts for PA

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

wage growth is now positive. ▪ The very strong growth of Personal Income is due to federal UC programs and economic stimulus. ▪ In 2020 Q4, 206,000 residents left the labor force. The impact of early retirements is unknown. ▪ U.S. Labor

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