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Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus

Labor Market Update - June 23, 2021

The IFO released its second edition of a new monthly publication that tracks conditions in the state labor market. Despite significant federal stimulus and job openings/quit rates at series highs, the May payroll jobs data do not reveal any reduction in pandemic-related job losses. 

06/23/2021

Labor Market Update- June 2021

The IFO issued a new monthly publication that tracks the state labor market. The data show that the pace of payroll jobs creation has stagnated despite significant federal stimulus.

06/03/2021

Economic Impact of Federal stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

05/10/2021

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Director Matt Knittel gave a presentation to CompetePA on the state budget, federal stimulus and various revenue proposals.

03/11/2021

Projected Revenue Impact of COVID-19

The IFO released an updated revenue projection for FY 2019-20 and a preliminary projection for FY 2020-21 using two scenarios for business closures due to the COVID-19 virus. The release also discusses the impact on economic growth rates and federal stimulus monies that are projected to flow into the state economy.

04/08/2020

RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. The analysis estimates the economic to individuals by income group. For this purpose, groups are based on the tax returns or reported income levels of stimulus fund recipients across four income groups: (1) below $25,000; (2) $25,000 to $49,999; (3) $50,000 to

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

Economic Outlook .............................................................................................................. 9 Federal and State Programs ............................................................................................11 Payroll Employment .......................................................................................................12 Labor Force Trends ........................................................................................................14 Income Trends ..............................................................................................................17 Unspent Federal Stimulus ...............................................................................................18 Consumer Spending Patterns ..........................................................................................20 Inflation and Sales Taxes ................................................................................................21 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................22 Revenue Outlook .............................................................................................................. 23 Personal Income Tax......................................................................................................24 only 0.4% ($165 million, excludes a $2.41 billion ARP transfer) as the impact of $120 billion of federal stimulus dis- bursed to Pennsylvania residents and businesses wanes. From FY 2022-23 to FY 2026-27, the forecast projects that

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2021.pdf

provide assessment of long-term fiscal outlook Method: assume economy reverts to long-term trends Key Themes and Issues Federal Stimulus, Labor Force, Inflation November 15, 2021 1 Today’s Guest Speaker – Emily Maher, NCSL Navigating the Waters: How States are Maher is a senior policy specialist with the Fiscal Affairs Program at NCSL, where she specializes in state budgets, federal stimulus funds, state and local relations, and economic development topics. She is a staff liaison to NCSL’s Labor and Economic

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Revenue-Update-2020-04.pdf

Profits 3.0% -15.0% -25.0% Table 2 CY 2020 Pennsylvania Economic Growth Rates Notes: Excludes impact of federal stimulus. Corporate profits are domestic profits for non-financial firms. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 The economic growth rates do not reflect the potential impact of federal stimulus. The federal stimulus will support consumer purchases, the rehiring (or retention) of employees and on-going business operations, and should

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

in CY 2021 also remains available for use in CY 2022. Residual amounts of funding support from Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks), ex- panded federal unemployment benefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY rents, royalties, pensions, Social Security, IRA disburse- ments, business and self-employment income and government transfers (e.g., unemployment and stimulus payments). The forecast projects that Cash Income will contract from $767 billion in CY 2021 to $728 billion in CY

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

in CY 2021 also remains available for use in CY 2022. Residual amounts of funding support from Economic Impact Payments (stimulus checks), ex- panded federal unemployment benefits and expanded child tax credits provides nearly $400 million to Pennsylvania residents in CY rents, royalties, pensions, Social Security, IRA disburse- ments, business and self-employment income and government transfers (e.g., unemployment and stimulus payments). The forecast projects that Cash Income will contract from $764 billion in CY 2021 to $730 billion in CY

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section 4: Revenue Outlook .................................................................................................... 21 Personal pandemic. The forecast reflects these assumptions for the current calendar year:  Although it is likely that Congress enacts additional stimulus or extensions, the analysis does not incorporate further relief beyond the package passed at the end of CY 2020. 

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

the COVID-19 pandemic. At this point, it is not known whether the federal government will enact additional stimulus. If stimulus is enacted, it would increase the revenue estimates contained in this report. Questions or comments regarding the contents of this report are

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Monthly_Economic_Update_July_2020.pdf

Additional data from the Pulse Survey indicate that 24.3% of Pennsylvanians spent at least a portion of the federal stimulus payment on their mortgage, while 20.9% of recipients nationwide spent the stimulus payment on their mortgage. Over 20 Percent of Households Used Stimulus Payments to Pay Down Debt Data from the U

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

workers. Federal UC programs, including PUA, will end in early September. ▪ The American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act, the most recent stimulus legislation, provides FPUC bonus payments of $300 per week through the first week in September. In CY 2020, FPUC pay- to exceed the IFO’s revised official esti- mate by $637 million. The revision is largely attributable to additional federal stimulus that in- creased TY 2020 and TY 2021 profits and behavioral responses to a potential federal corporate tax rate increase

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

contraction of credit and lending, the resumption of student loan repayments and the end of funds still flowing from certain stimulus programs (e.g., employee retention credit). U.S. Economic Forecasts Table 1.1 displays the most recent U.S. economic to all payroll workers (+20.4%) grew at roughly the same rate as the state economy.  Due to federal stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing that occurred over most of the four-year period, asset values inflated substantially: the

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

the resumption of student loan repayments, a potential debt ceiling impasse and the end of funds still flowing from certain stimulus programs (e.g., employee retention credit). U.S. Economic Forecasts Table 1.1 displays the most recent U.S. economic to all payroll workers (+20.4%) grew at roughly the same rate as the state economy.  Due to federal stimulus, low interest rates and quantitative easing that occurred over most of the four-year period, asset values inflated substantially: the

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2022_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Historical data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by IFO. Federal Stimulus - Quarterly Pattern January 31, 2022 3 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2021.1 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 average for 2018 Q3 and 2019 Q3. Source: Federal Reserve Board. PA share is ~4% about $35 billion likely not stimulus most is spent a direct increase in money supply FY 2021-22 Revenues Through January January 31, 2022 14 Dollar

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_2023_08.pdf

million, or 11.2% of actual General Fund revenues. 2 The overage was attributable to the enactment of additional federal stimulus (Lost Wage Assistance Program, the Consolidated Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan) after the release of the estimate, which the outbreak tracking closely to the official estimate projections; (3) the FY 2020-21 underprediction error resulted from significant federal stimulus legislation enacted throughout the fiscal year; and (4) the FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23 underprediction errors were due

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

surplus this year and next, then deficits  A FY 19-20 + FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  Massive federal stimulus temporarily fills underlying structural deficit  IFO estimates at ~$2.5 billion | consensus it is significant  Significant monies now

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State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdf

2020) measure to which they are compared. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all states received large infusions of federal stimulus funds such as various federal unemployment compensation programs (e.g., Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)), economic impact payments and expanded SNAP s tax types. For CY 2020, the PIT average tax rate fell due to the large amount of untaxed federal stimulus funds. The motor vehicle average tax rate fell due to reduced gasoline consumption from the pandemic. The property tax average

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdf

60% of EIPs spent. Most of that within 3 months. Most unemployment compensation is spent. Nearly 75% of non-PPP stimulus to residents with < $50k income. Per capita credit card debt down 14% in 2021 Q1. Note: Billions of dollars. PPP measures | streamline operations ▪ Telework and travel savings | sales of higher margin products Inflation in housing and stock markets – “wealth effects” Stimulus induced sales are more likely to be taxed ▪ Cars, appliances, home improvement, home entertainment, take out delivery May 26, 2021

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

workers. Federal UC programs, including PUA, will end in early September. ▪ The American Rescue Plan (ARP) Act, the most recent stimulus legislation, provides FPUC bonus payments of $300 per week through the first week in September. In CY 2020, FPUC pay- impact of certain federal tax provisions enacted in response to COVID-19 which increased 2020 taxable profits, (2) additional federal stimulus not included in the original estimate and (3) firms’ response to an anticipated federal corporate tax rate increase. Tax provisions

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance_2022_10.pdf

million, or 11.2% of actual General Fund revenues. 2 The overage was attributable to the enactment of additional federal stimulus (Lost Wage Assistance Program, the Consolidated Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan) after the release of the estimate, which the outbreak tracking closely to the official estimate projections; (5) the FY 2020-21 underprediction error resulted from significant federal stimulus legislation enacted throughout the fiscal year; and (6) the FY 2021-22 underprediction error was due to unprecedented economic conditions

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

local entities for capital projects that have economic, cultural, recreational or historical preservation impact. The resource table below includes federal stimulus funds appropriated to the Executive Offices for pandemic response. This includes $50 million in FY 2021-22 expenditures for employee life in Pennsylvania communities and increased public awareness and appreciation of the arts. 1 The federal government enacted two major stimulus plans due to the COVID-19 pandemic: the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act enacted in March 2020

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

sizable budget surplus this year and likely next, then deficits  An FY 20-21 surplus even without latest federal stimulus (ARP)  New federal funds available through December 2024 (much is restricted)  IFO estimates longer-term deficit at ~$2 21 requested in Executive Budget. For FY 21-22, excludes enhanced FMAP ($2.4 billion) and new American Rescue Plan stimulus. Prior year lapses include transfers to Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Source: IFO Economic and Budget Outlook, FY 20-21 to

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2021.pdf

Federal Stimulus Drives Record Pennsylvania Lottery Sales Through the week ending March 30, fiscal-year-to-date (FYTD) lottery game sales are same period in FY 2019-20. Much of the growth in lottery game sales is likely explained by the federal stimulus distributed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased households’ disposable income. The IFO estimates that $50.7 billion

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IFO_PASBO_Presentation_Nov_2021.pdf

Update ▪ No look at COVID-19 impact on SD collections yet ▪ Some data suggest decline not as bad as anticipated | stimulus ▪ SAWW at record high | elevated by 2021 wage growth November 16, 2021 1 Pennsylvania Demographics - Decennial Census Update November 16 9% 4.3% 3.9% 2.4% 2.3% Payroll Job Gains (000s) 69 56 -463 115 80 65 59 Stimulus ($ billions) --- --- $64 $54 $2 --- --- Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U

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FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdf

Who Paused: Did They Spend or Save? Generally spent… and some used to leverage more borrowing ▪ We find a large stimulus effect, as borrowers substitute increased private debt for paused public debt…. (b)orrowers used the new liquidity to increase borrowing Aid. Age 35 to 49 Age 50 to 61 Notes on IMPLAN Modeling Modeled as a “Household Income Event” ▪ Examples: stimulus checks, tax refunds, change in sales tax rate ▪ Low multipliers: a gov’t transfer (not a purchase), flows to upper

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Five_Year_Outlook_Presentation_2022.pdf

44 49 5 10.6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End November 15, 2022 11 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $65.5 $57.5 $3.2 State and inflation. “premium” is worth +$5.1 billion Revenues / GDP measures the revenue “capacity” of economy profits and stock market federal stimulus and spending patterns Baseline Forecast: Big 3 Tax Revenues November 15, 2022 14 Corp Net Income +1.7% avg ann

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

the pandemic period (4.3% to 5.3%) as state residents, businesses and governments received nearly $200 billion of federal stimulus and recovery funds. Employee wages, consumer spending, business profits and inflation increased dramatically. Due to high General Fund balances and loans and the refinance of mortgages at lower rates/payments), (2) higher prices (i.e., inflation) and (3) various federal stimulus and relief policies (e.g., economic impact payments, student loan moratorium and expan- sion of SNAP benefits). Non-motor SUT

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EPLC_3_4_2022_update.pdf

9% 4.3% 3.9% 2.4% 2.3% Payroll Job Gains (000s) 69 56 -463 115 80 65 59 Stimulus ($ billions) --- --- $64 $54 $2 --- --- Note: Payroll Job Gains exclude self-employed. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U 322 $43,319 -$2,003 -4.4% -0.8% Corporate Net Income 4,866 4,654 -212 -4.4 no stimulus, wages Sales - Non-Motor 11,668 11,300 -368 -3.2 no stimulus Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,802 1,281

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Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Presentation_2020_10.pdf

of income merely redistributed in new form? October 29, 2020 14 Looking Forward Projections do not assume new major federal stimulus or closures  The form and timing of stimulus are unclear due to the election  Additional business closures could occur due to recent surge in cases Anticipated drop

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2021-09.pdf

million, or 11.2% of actual General Fund revenues. 2 The overage was attributable to the enactment of additional federal stimulus (Lost Wage Assistance Program, the Consolidated Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan) after the release of the estimate, which outbreak tracking closely to the official estimate projections; and (5) the FY 2020-21 underprediction error resulted from significant federal stimulus legislation enacted throughout the fiscal year. In addition to the relative size of forecast errors, it is useful to track

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RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf

the state compared to 2020 because income growth significantly outpaced property tax growth in all counties due to large federal stimulus programs and an estimated 70% increase in capital gains income. If temporary COVID-19 stimulus funds are excluded, then the statewide property tax burden would increase from 2.57% to 2.74%. Property Tax Burden

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple massive federal stimulus programs. Care of Elderly Parents The jobs data from Table 4 show a dramatic employment reduction for the nursing home Savings and Wealth Effects Several recent news articles have noted a significant build-up of household savings due to federal stimulus transfers, unusually high profits and stock market gains. Through 2022 Q1, data from the Federal Reserve Board show that U

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple massive federal stimulus programs. Care of Elderly Parents The jobs data from Table 4 show a dramatic employment reduction for the nursing home Savings and Wealth Effects Several recent news articles have noted a significant build-up of household savings due to federal stimulus transfers, unusually high profits and stock market gains. Through 2022 Q1, data from the Federal Reserve Board show that U

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PMTA_Presentation_April_2023.pdf

6% 8% 10% durable goods +23% all energy +46% supply chains grocery +17% Philadelphia CPI-U annual growth third round stimulus Russia- Ukraine Quantitative Tightening Fed target forecast large decline in April Pandemic Stimulus Ends ($ billions to PA) April 19, 2023 9 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 Unemployment Comp $31.5 $16

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PASBO_March_17_2021.pdf

entertainment | leased space March 17, 2021 10 Alternative Scenarios: High and Low Average Wage Growth High Growth: impact of new stimulus, inflation and early retirements  American Rescue Plan (ARP) injects ~$56 billion into PA economy  Causes faster wage growth Most former workers return to labor force (seek jobs), suppress wage growth  Most jobs return rapidly due to new stimulus, and most are part-time  Lower raises in exchange for remote working and other benefits March 17, 2021 11

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PACB_Presentation_2021_8.pdf

1.0% 1.5% 3.3% 12.0% 8.0% Change Payroll Jobs (000s) -517 -468 -444 -423 -362 Federal Stimulus ($ billions) $12.6 $3.6 $32.3 $10.8 $5.4 Philadelphia CPI-U All Items 0.4% 0.9% over-year change and compares to a no-pandemic scenario. Payroll jobs figure for 2021.3 reflects July only. Federal stimulus includes PPP loans, expanded SNAP, advance child tax credit payments, expanded UC benefits and economic impact payments. All rates or

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MSC_March_31_2022.pdf

322 $43,319 -$2,003 -4.4% -0.8% Corporate Net Income 4,866 4,654 -212 -4.4 no stimulus, wages Sales - Non-Motor 11,668 11,300 -368 -3.2 no stimulus Sales - Motor Vehicle 1,802 1,281 -521 -28.9 new transfer PIT - Withholding 11,790 12,355 565 4

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

points lower than 2010. A portion of the slower real growth can be attributed to the waning effect of federal stimulus. Data from the National Income and Product Accounts show that spending by the federal government contributed 0.4 percentage points Outlook Fiscal year 2011-12 marks the first year since FY 2007-08 that the Commonwealth will not receive federal stimulus funds through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). For the past three fiscal years, General Fund expenditures

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2023_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

market data are seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 31, 2023 5 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.8 $57.3 $8.0 State and January 31, 2023 18 FY 17-18 to 21-22 Inflation = 14% ~71% real profits growth higher profit margins (FactSet) stimulus increases purchases 2022 Q3-Q4 declining profit margins (FactSet) 2017 Tax Cuts Jobs Act must amortize R&D costs (not

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The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdf

Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?”, NBER Working Paper No. 14753 and Parker, Souleles, Johnson and McClelland, “Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008”, NBER Working Paper No. 16684. 3 Across all consumer expenditures, the average figure is closer to 35

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

income tax payments). Neither the IFO estimate nor the estimate published in the Executive Budget include the most recent federal stimulus (American Rescue Plan). During the hearing, several members also raised questions regarding the revenue proposals contained in the Executive Budget

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

19 pandemic, but this estimate assumes no decline in current-year collections. 2 This revision is due to additional federal stimulus provided to Pennsylvania residents after release of the previous forecast that offset the reduction in the property tax collection rate

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Roundtable_Jan_24_2023.pdf

on Nov 2022 job change. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES State and Metro Area Employment. Federal Pandemic Stimulus Monies Largely End January 24, 2023 9 2020 2021 2022 Residents/Businesses $64.6 $58.1 $4.8 State and

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Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf

Growth Unusually Strong During Pandemic • Can profits level be maintained? • How much of sales tax gain was dependent on federal stimulus and excess savings? Slide 15 Jan 2024 Roundtable 0.90 1.10 1.30 1.50 1.70 1.90

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Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_2022_05.pdf

care credit? ▪ April 2022 up +4% | May and June projected flat ▪ 21-22 forecast: slight decline due to lack of stimulus, relative inflation levels, and changes to consumer purchase patterns Motor vehicle sales tax up +23% in CY 2021 ▪ Nearly all

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

federal matching rate or program eligibility impacts resulting from the recent COVID-19 disruptions and enactment of federal stimulus bills. The largest state savings result from individuals who are no longer eligible for Medical Assistance. DHS estimates that roughly 48,400

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RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf

to an historic surge in corporate profits that coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions and extensive federal stimulus programs. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that U.S. corporate non-financial domestic profits increased

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RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf

increases in the Child Care Development Block Grant (CCDBG) or other funds that were provided in ARPA or previous federal stimulus legislation. 1 ) Awarded funds can be used for pandemic-related costs, operations, staff salaries and recruitment and child care worker

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

due to COVID-19 mitigation efforts, but then demand rebounded rapidly due to business re-openings and multiple large federal stimulus programs. 6 The overall population contraction was driven by three factors: (1) a net domestic outflow to other states (-8

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($3 billion) to hospitals and health care providers. 1, 2 The analysis removes these stimulus funds from the data for Figure 2 to measure underlying income gains over the period. If this income is included

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RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

distributions from the Provider Relief Fund ($1 billion) to hospitals and health care providers. 2,3 The analysis removes these stimulus funds from the data for Figure 2 to measure underlying income gains over the period. If this income is included

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Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf

the state compared to 2019 because income growth significantly outpaced property tax growth in all counties due to large federal stimulus programs and an estimated 20% increase in capital gains income. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdf

up 260% compared to 19-20 ▪ Early national estimates show food insecurity did not rise in 2020 | Likely due to stimulus and increased food assistance January 26, 2022 9 AGR Metric Highlights (Continued) Dog Law Enforcement workload has grown significantly in

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PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_24_2022.pdf

general, more outcome data are available for federally funded programs ▪ Condition of funding | Defined measures | Dedicated resources Use of federal stimulus funds will significantly impact state program outcomes over multiple years ▪ PDE – ARP ESSER funding for K-12 schools ($5 billion

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

22, that decline was likely due to higher Lottery sales in FY 2020-21 as a result of temporary federal stimulus payments and limited other entertainment options.  Lottery intercepted an increasing amount of court-ordered obligations for the Administrative Office

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

Assistance (PUA). PEUC and PUA benefits are strictly federal programs enacted by the federal CARES Act and extended by later stimulus legislation. PEUC extended the length of benefits for traditional unemployed workers, while PUA expanded unemployment benefits to non-traditional work-

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

was $290 per child per week for families paying privately. 4 Due to the pandemic, child care facilities received federal stimulus funding to maintain operations in 2020. In addition, all Pennsylvania child care workers received a $600 pandemic relief payment. Federal

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

PASS increased by 260%. Estimates of national food insecurity rates remained stable in 2020, possibly due to the combination of stimulus and an increase in charitable food provided. See pages 13 to 18 for more details. Horse Racing The department promotes

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

for certifications and/or experience, and competition with private sector opportunities and higher wages. For both, COVID-19 lockdown, economic stimulus payments, and generous unemployment compensation are likely contributing factors for the decline. Source: Recruitment Events Calendar. Note: The Infrastructure and

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PASBO_Presentation_March_16_2023.pdf

63.2 2022 61.8 Roughly 2/3 of total labor force decline (-105k) due to demographic factors Federal Pandemic Stimulus Ends ($ billions to PA) March 16, 2023 7 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 Unemployment Comp $31

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PACBI_Presentation_March_13_2023.pdf

7.6% of CPI-U. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and AAA (PA average gasoline price). Federal Pandemic Stimulus ($ billions to PA) March 13, 2023 3 2020 2021 2022 2023.1 2023.2 2023.3 Unemployment Comp $31.5

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Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdf

impacts not included in Cash Income (e.g., expiration of the student loan repayment moratorium, used excess savings from federal stimulus programs, etc.). Model projections are gross of any transfers, which are deducted from projections to derive net flows to the

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NCSL_PA_IFO_11_15_21.pdf

goals achieved strategically (e.g., housing, broadband, etc.) • Flexibility with investment strategies • Adjusting for influx of state revenues and federal stimulus • Planning beyond ARPA 17 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF STATE LEGISLATURES Emily Maher emily.maher@ncsl.org www.ncsl.org Please feel

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MRU_2021_04.pdf

million, 12.9%) and motor vehicle collections (+$37.1 million, 25.3%). SUT collections in April were bolstered by federal stimulus payments that began arriving in March as a result of the American Rescue Plan Act. FYTD SUT collections of $10

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Monthly_Economic_Update_Nov_2023.pdf

student loan debt. The following trends were observed: Credit card debt declined significantly (-11.3%) in 2020 when households received stimulus payments to alleviate economic hardship due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the latest data show that contraction has completely

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2021.pdf

Pennsylvania workers appears to be accelerating as the state economy received a significant boost from the latest round of federal stimulus. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released state-level data on personal income, but adjusted withholding

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Monthly_Economic_Update_February_2021.pdf

suggest that $3.2 billion was used for personal consumption expenditures. When surveyed about the expected use of a second stimulus payment, respondents reported a smaller MPC of 24.2% indicating that 45.0% of a second payment would be saved

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Monthly_Economic_Update_December_2021.pdf

1.5 trillion (23%) to October 2021. Federal Reserve debt holdings more than doubled to supply funds for multiple federal stimulus packages. Row 4 displays the commensurate increase in Demand Deposits (checking account balances of consumers and businesses) and Currency in

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2021.pdf

as national auto loan delinquencies remain relatively low. However, delinquencies may rise in the fall with the expiration of federal stimulus programs. Summer Natural Gas Prices at Highest Level Since 2014 As noted in a recent WSJ article, natural gas production

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Monthly_Economic_Update_August_2020.pdf

7.3% in 2020 Q2 due to an influx of state and federal support through UC payments and other economic stimulus measures. Household Debt Declines for the First Time Since 2014 Q2 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released household

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Monthly_Economic_Update_April_2022.pdf

3) ongoing supply chain constraints: A recent weekly newsletter by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that federal stimulus may have contributed 3.0 percentage points to the inflation rate by the end of 2021. For February 2022, the

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Labor_Market_Update_June_2021.pdf

Impact of Federal Stimulus on Pennsylvania Job Creation Stalls This document provides a monthly update on the status of the state labor market and

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

include highly inflated asset values (stock market and home values), unusually high consumer and business spending due to temporary federal stimulus, changes to consumer spending patterns and record-breaking levels of profit. 7 The revenue forecast assumes that these temporary gains

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

contracting labor force  Economics job recovery slows, some permanent job loss  Revenues solid, income surge due to federal stimulus  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November 2019

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

Various long-term demographic concerns ▪ Declining birth rates | Contracting labor force ▪ Rapid growth age 80+ (healthcare costs accelerate) Additional federal stimulus would impact state budget outlook ▪ Current proposal includes $350 billion for state and local fiscal recovery ▪ Estimated amounts for PA

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

wage growth is now positive. ▪ The very strong growth of Personal Income is due to federal UC programs and economic stimulus. ▪ In 2020 Q4, 206,000 residents left the labor force. The impact of early retirements is unknown. ▪ U.S. Labor

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Budget_Roundtable_Response_Letter_02_2024.pdf

is not possible to link borrowers who are taking on new debt with those that paid down debt using federal stimulus (e.g., economic impact payments, PPP loans, enhanced unemployment compensation) during the federal health emergency. Representative Gleim requested data on

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Announcement_2021.pdf

departed the state labor force? How long will inflation remain elevated? Does any pent-up demand remain from unspent federal stimulus? The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years

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About IFO

well as leading performance-based budget reports. Other responsibilities include working on special projects pertaining to debt, retiree healthcare, federal stimulus and economic development incentives. Frank Lill Fiscal Analyst Mr. Lill joined the IFO in 2022 and his primary responsibilities include

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