Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the 2018-19 Executive Budget

April 18, 2018 | Revenue Estimates

This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals contained in the 2018-19 Executive Budget released in February 2018. The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this report to fulfill its statutory duties as provided under Section 604-B (a)(4) of the Administrative Code of 1929. The statute requires that the IFO “provide an analysis, including economic impact, of all tax and revenue proposals submitted by the Governor or the Office of the Budget.”

The report contains two sections. The first section analyzes the tax proposals included in the 2018-19 Executive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates and provides interstate comparisons or a discussion of tax incidence under proposed tax law. The second section analyzes the proposal to increase the state minimum wage from $7.25 to $12.00 per hour. It discusses potential employment effects, income effects and implications for General Fund revenues.

The analyses contained in this report are based on descriptions from the 2018-19 Executive Budget and, when available, technical language provided by the administration. To the extent that parameters for a specific proposal were unavailable, the analyses incorporate reasonable assumptions, which are outlined in the two sections. If enacted, the proposals would not impact revenues for the current fiscal year.

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