Analysis of Executive Order 2016-02

May 12, 2016 | Economics and Other

For FY 2016-17, the administration estimates a total cost of $4.1 million due to the order. Based on an analysis of the data provided, it appears that the administration employed reasonable assumptions and methodologies to develop the estimate. As noted, the IFO assumes that all relevant data have been forwarded for the purpose of this analysis. The estimate could be viewed as a lower bound due to the exclusion of leases that will expire. It is not possible to exactly quantify the fiscal impact of the order on those leases, although it seems plausible that the impact would be less than $1 million. If that figure is roughly accurate, then it suggests an approximate total cost of $5 million for FY 2016-17. The inexact nature of the data do not allow a more specific estimate, and it is possible the true cost could be considerably higher or lower.

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