IFO Releases
Summary and Analysis of Annual SERS Stress Test Report
November 27, 2024 | Pension Analysis
Pursuant to Act 128 of 2020, the IFO issued a report that summarizes results from the State Employee Retirement System’s (SERS) recent stress test report. Based on SERS baseline projections, the IFO projects that over the next 20 years, Commonwealth agencies will use $22.0 billion in General Fund revenues (1.8%) for employer pension contributions. Relative to baseline projections, the report also summarizes the impact from scenarios that allow investment performance to exceed and fall short of baseline assumptions and the issuance of an 8.3% cost-of-living adjustment (equal to a 13th monthly annuity each year).
Treasury Collections Begin to Contract
November 25, 2024 | Economics and Other
After peaking in FY2023-24 at $720 million, Treasury collections are projected to drop by $321 million (-45%) for FY2025-26 due to General Fund deficit spending and declining interest rates.
PSCOA Wage Contract Analysis
November 21, 2024 | Wage Contracts
This letter provides a fiscal impact analysis of the collective bargaining agreement between the Commonwealth and the Pennsylvania State Corrections Officers Association (PSCOA).
The wage contract analysis was reposted on November 21, 2024 to reflect updated cost information received from the Office of Administration on November 13, 2024.
Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook
November 14, 2024 | Revenue Estimates
The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentations.
Economic and Budget Outlook
November 05, 2024 | Revenue Estimates
The IFO will release its long-term budget outlook for FY 2024-25 to FY 2029-30 on November 14 at 1:30 pm. The report will include an assessment of the General Fund surplus ($6.6 billion at end of FY 23-24) and Rainy Day Fund ($7.0 billion) under current law and policies. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.
October 2024 Revenue Update
November 01, 2024 | Revenue & Economic Update
The Commonwealth collected $3.38 billion in General Fund revenues for October, an increase of $137 million compared to October 2023.