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Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

Tags: budget, economic, outlook

Budget and Economic Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends.

03/31/2021

Revised Monthly Revenue Estimates

This report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of the FY 2020-21 state budget in November 2020.

02/23/2021

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/19/2021

Five Year Economic and Budget outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its five-year Economic and Budget outlook. Click the hyperlink above to view the report and presentation.

01/21/2021

January 2021 Economic and Budget outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

01/11/2021

Demographic outlook

Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. In prior years, the information contained in this report was presented as an individual section within the IFO’s Five-Year Economic and Budget outlook.

09/08/2020

Impact Fee Update and 2020 outlook

This report examines impact fee collections for 2019 and provides an outlook for 2020.

06/25/2020

Economic and Budget Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook.

02/28/2020

Presentation to Grow PA Coalition

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic outlook.

12/02/2019

FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET outlook

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.

11/14/2019

Five Year Economic and Budget outlook

Announcement: The IFO will present its Five-Year Economic and Budget outlook at 1:30 p.m. on November 14th at Harrisburg University. The Tax Foundation and ITEP will also make presentations on Pennsylvania's tax and business climate.

11/06/2019

Impact Fee Update and 2019 outlook

This report examines impact fee collections for 2018 and provides an outlook for 2019.

06/28/2019

Economic & Budget outlook Presentation

Deputy Director Brenda Warburton gave a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's economic and budget outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five year economic and budget outlook (November 2018) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20 (January 2019). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

03/01/2019

PA Fiscal Update and outlook

Director Matthew Knittel gave a presentation to the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania that reviews highlights from the IFO's recent Economic and Budget outlook.

11/19/2018

FIVE YEAR ECONOMIC AND BUDGET outlook

Click on the hyperlink above to access the full report, three presentations and press release.  

11/15/2018

Impact Fee Update and 2018 outlook

This report examines 2017 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2018.

06/28/2018

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table

02/16/2018

Pennsylvania Fiscal Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) to provide background on the IFO and an update on Pennsylvania’s short- and long-term budget outlook

12/13/2017

Five Year Economic and Budget outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2022-23. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation PEW Presentation Letter providing additional detail Updated projections for the PSERS state share

11/16/2017

Pennsylvania Fiscal outlook Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel addressed the Society of Municipal Analysts to provide an update on Pennsylvania’s fiscal outlook, demographics and current budget status. 

10/19/2017

Pennsylvania's Fiscal and Demographic outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan gave a presentation to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce and Industry addressing Pennsylvania’s long-term fiscal outlook, demographics and the current revenue forecast. 

07/14/2017

Impact Fee Update and 2017 outlook

This research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 

07/04/2017

Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees

The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing

02/16/2017

Long-Term Fiscal outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation at a session of the Pennsylvania Education Policy Fellowship Program regarding the Commonwealth's long-term fiscal outlook. The presentation summarized the office's five-year economic and budget outlook (November 2016) as well as more recent updates to the office's revenue estimates for FY 2016-17 and FY 2017-18 (January 2017). The presentation also addressed the office's most recent estimate for school property tax collections.

02/10/2017

Five Year Economic and Budget outlook

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2021-22. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. Press Release IFO Presentation Don Boyd's Presentation on Public Pension Risk

11/15/2016

Impact Fee Update and 2016 outlook

This research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 

07/14/2016

The Commonwealth’s Budget outlook: FY 2016‐17 and Beyond

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership regarding the Commonwealth's budget outlook for FY 2016-17 and beyond.  

06/08/2016

A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue outlook

Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar regarding Pennsylvania's economic and revenue outlook.

05/13/2016

Five-Year Economic and Budget outlook: FY 2015-16 to 2020-21

This report examines the demographic, economic, revenue and expenditure trends that will affect the Commonwealth’s fiscal condition through fiscal year (FY) 2020-21. Based on the economic and demographic assumptions used by this report, the evaluation finds that various factors imply a long-term fiscal imbalance. (Updated January 2016) Presentation

01/27/2016

Impact Fee Update and 2015 outlook

This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

06/25/2015

Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 1 Section 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 3 Section 2: Demographic Outlook ......................................................................................... 5 Trends by Age Group ...................................................................................................... 5 Pennsylvania Population Distribution ................................................................................ 7 Dependency Ratios Decline .............................................................................................. 8 Components of Population Change ................................................................................... 9 Population Growth Across States .....................................................................................13 Section 3: Economic Outlook .............................................................................................. 15 Employment Trends .......................................................................................................17 Wage Trends .................................................................................................................18 Consumer Trends ..........................................................................................................19 Housing Trends .............................................................................................................20 Section 4: Revenue Outlook ............................................................................................... 21 Revenue Versus Economic Growth

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IFO Five-Year Outlook.pdf

The Economic and Budget Outlook: FY 2012-13 to 2017-18 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Today’s Presentation  Report posted to IFO website: www.ifo.state.pa.us.  Demographic Outlook  New projections from Penn State Data Center.  Economic Outlook  Latest projections from IHS Global Insight.  Expenditure

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

Matthew J. Knittel Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 1 Section 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................. 3 Section 2: Demographic Outlook .............................................................................................. 5 Components of Population Change ................................................................................................... 6 Dependency Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 7 Labor Force Participation Rates ........................................................................................................ 8 Section 3: Economic Outlook .................................................................................................... 9 Federal Relief and Stimulus ............................................................................................................ 11 Payroll Employment ....................................................................................................................... 13 Labor Force Trends ....................................................................................................................... 16 Income Trends .............................................................................................................................. 17 Financial Trends ............................................................................................................................ 19 Section

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IFO ppt.pdf

January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference January 18, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Economic & Budget Outlook 2012 Revenue Conference Background • Public Act 120 of 2010 requires Independent Fiscal Office to release a five-year outlook report

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

January 2012 The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-2017 Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Forward Act 120 of 2010 establishes the Independent Fiscal Office ifo.state.pa.us. Matthew J. Knittel Director January 2012 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 3 The Economic Outlook .................................................................................................................. 6 The Demographic Outlook .......................................................................................................... 15 The Revenue Outlook ................................................................................................................... 17 The Expenditure Outlook ............................................................................................................ 25 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 34 Technical Appendix ..................................................................................................................... 36 1 Executive

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Independent Fiscal Office

and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. ... (Full Report) House Budget Hearing Request News Stand & Other March 23, 2021 The IFO responded report provides revised revenue distributions based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the IFO on January 21, 2021. They reflect the statutory changes that were enacted with the remainder of

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

state.pa.us. Sincerely, Dr. Matthew J. Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The mitigation efforts triggered in response to the COVID-19 virus will have a dramatic impact on economic growth for calendar years

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

you for the opportunity to testify before you today. For my opening remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent economic indicators provide different perspectives on the state and national economies. Some national indicators suggest an

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Kling_Presentation.pdf

in its major reports and other studies. For example, along with its April 2018 report on the budget and economic outlook, the agency posted files containing the following information:  Historical data  Spending projections by budget account  Revenue projections CBO CBO routinely compares its current estimates with its previous ones. For example:  Reports on the budget and economic outlook explain the differences between current and previous revenue and spending projections  Those reports also explain changes to CBO’s

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested data, including select interstate comparisons, and

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic and consumer outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested data, including select interstate comparisons, and

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

ifo.state.pa.us | (717) 230-8293 | contact@ifo.state.pa.us - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook For 2019 and 2020, the U.S. Economic forecast by IHS Markit projects a deceleration of economic growth, stable wage gains and

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic outlook is the starting point for the General Fund revenue estimate be- cause most revenue sources require forecasts of one

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely, MATTHEW J. KNITTEL Director - This page intentionally left blank. - Economic Outlook | Page 1 Economic Outlook The economic outlook is the starting point for the General Fund revenue estimate be- cause most revenue sources require forecasts of one

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_IFO_PPT.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22 Welcome Matthew Knittel

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

official revenue estimate released in June 2020. Typically, the IFO would release a five-year revenue and economic outlook report in Novem- ber. However, due to the partial-year budget, the IFO has postponed release of that document to a future gains in August and September. That outcome is explored further in tables contained in this section. The Revenue Outlook section of this report details increases to the IFO’s official estimate of General Fund revenues for FY 2020-21 as revenues

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

2013 Revenue Conference Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Presentation Overview Economic Outlook o Changes to forecast. o Consumer spending is crucial – primary driver of economic growth. Revenue Forecast o Estimates vs. Year‐to‐Date actuals. o Outlook for rest of fiscal year and next fiscal year. Discussion and questions 23.Jan.2013 2013 Revenue Conference 2 Pennsylvania

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Presentation_PICPA_12-3-2014.pdf

Presentation to PICPA December 3, 2014 Matthew Knittel Independent Fiscal Office Pennsylvania’s Economic and Budget Outlook FY 2014-15 to FY 2019-20 Provide Five-Year Projections For: • Pennsylvania Demographics • Pennsylvania Economics • General Fund Revenues • General assess fiscal situation. • Identify long-term budget trends. • Alert policymakers to structural imbalances. 3.Dec.2014 The Economic and Budget Outlook 2 Demographic Outlook Age Distribution Life Expectancy and Median Age Age of Workforce Labor Force Participation Rates Components of Population

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perez ppt.pdf

1% to 1%), n= 3 Less than -1%, n= 6 Source: NCSL survey of legislative fiscal officers, summer 2011. Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2012 0 16 28 7 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Pessimistic Concerned Stable MS AL FL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD Revenue Outlook for the Remainder of FY 2012 Puerto Rico Stable, n = 28 Concerned, n = 16 Pessimistic, n = 0 Optimistic ,n = 7

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IFO-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office | November 2019 1 Welcome Katherine Loughead | Tax Economic Policy  Business Taxation and Sustainable Economic Development Matthew Knittel | Independent Fiscal Office  Pennsylvania demographic, economic and fiscal outlook  Questions for all presenters to be taken at end of session November 14, 2019 2 Economic Development and Business

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Presentation_2016-05-13_KRFS_Economic_and_Revenue_Outlook.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the A Look Forward: Pennsylvania’s Economic and Revenue Outlook 2016 Keystone Rail Freight Seminar May 13, 2016 May 13, 2016 2 Economic Outlook • Stable Economic Growth • Low Inflation • Solid Labor Market • Some Wage Weakness Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U

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NFIB_Presentation.pdf

Congressional Budget Office: non-partisan analysis. What we do. ◦ General Fund revenue estimates (multiple releases). ◦ Five-year budget and economic outlook (November). ◦ Supply actuarial notes for pension legislation. ◦ Performance-based budget reports and tax credit reviews. ◦ Analysis of collective bargaining agreements Provides General Assembly a starting point for deliberations. ◦ Governor still provides “official certification” of estimate. November 15: Five-Year Budget Outlook. ◦ Primary purpose: identify long-term structural issues. ◦ Has morphed into early deficit estimate for this/next fiscal year. End of

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020_Presentation_Final.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 Matthew Knittel, IFO Director January 21, 2021 Today’s Presentation Four Parts  Expenditures significant growth due to one-time measures Analysis finds a ~$2.0 billion structural deficit  November 2019 IFO Outlook identifies a ~$1.0 billion structural deficit  What has changed? | Why is it worse? Questions taken at end of

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK FY 2017-18 to FY 2022-23 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania NOVEMBER 2017 Welcome Matthew Knittel | Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Balance Sheet, Demographic and Economic Outlook Mark Ryan | Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office  Revenue and Expenditure Detail, Revenue Package Chaaron Pearson| The PEW Charitable Trusts

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Five_Year_Outlook_2016_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2016 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2021-22, will be available for download

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in prior budget hearings. We

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and natural gas trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in prior budget hearings. We

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Budget_Hearing_Testimony-Feb2014.pdf

material in the limited time for opening remarks. Rather, I would like to summarize the IFO’s economic and revenue outlook for the current and next fiscal year. A core function of the IFO is the provision of revenue estimates for estimate until May 1 st , I would like to take this opportunity to outline our current thinking about the revenue outlook and the economy. FY 2013-14 Revenue Outlook The IFO recently published a mid-year update of its revenue estimate

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Press_Release_2017_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 16, 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, is available for download on the office

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Presentation_PICPA_9-24-2013.pdf

Economic Outlook: Has it improved since spring? o Short Answer: No. o Economy has absorbed some hits. o A few more to o Best real-time indicator of PA economic conditions. Upcoming Studies. o HB 76 and SB 76. o Five-Year Outlook. 24 . Sept . 2013 2 Today’s Presentation PA Economic Outlook Weakens annual growth rate or levels 2012 2013 2014 Wages

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Presentation_2016-06-08_GPNP_Budget_Outlook.pdf

Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office presented to the The Commonwealth’s Budget Outlook: FY 2016‐17 and Beyond Greater Pittsburgh Nonprofit Partnership June 8, 2016 Office Began Operations September 2011. • Similar to the analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. The Independent Fiscal Office 8.Jun

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Municipal_Analysts_Presentation.pdf

bi-partisan.  Primary duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimates (May 1, June 15).  Five-year economic and budget outlook (November 15).  Pension and wage contract analysis.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. A Quick Tour Budget Status.  Where are we? How did we get here? Demographic Outlook.  Suggests economic and budgetary challenges. Economic Outlook.  Solid labor market, but consumption tepid. Budget Outlook.  Revenue and

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

current year. In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. This submission includes data, tables and graphs that have been requested in prior budget hearings. We

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IFO-Press-Release-11-14-2019.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s five-year economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25, is available for download on the office

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Press_Release_2018_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2018 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2018-19 to 2023-24, is available for download on the office

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press release - economic and budget outlook.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 15, 2012 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a long-term economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania, according to director Matthew Knittel. The report, entitled The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-

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Presentation_Lancaster_Chamber_2017-07-14.pdf

Pennsylvania’s Fiscal and Demographic Outlook Presentation to the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mark J. Ryan, Deputy Director Independent Fiscal Office July 14, 2017 actuarial analyses of pension legislation.  Numerous special studies on revenue or budget matters.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. 7/14/2017 2 Today’s Presentation PA’s long-term structural imbalance.  Origins date to the 2008-2009

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Presentation_2017_02_10_EPLC.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Long-Term Fiscal Outlook FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania February 10, 2017 Office Began Operations September 2011.  Similar

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novak ppt.pdf

F EDERAL R ESERVE B ANK OF P HILADELPHIA Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Independent Fiscal Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic Fed Coincident Index PA Index vs. PA GDP -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Coincident Index GDP NATIONAL OUTLOOK • Forecasting is more prevalent at the national level. – Media and financial community focus the discussion on national data – Data are

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Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook 2017 Revenue Conference FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania IFO Mid-Year Update January 25, 2017 P 500 Index CY 2016 S&P 500 Index +2.9% Dividends +4.1% S&P 500 Dividend Payments Revenue Outlook 25.Jan.2017 10 25.Jan.2017 11 Original IFO FY 2016-17 Estimate Dollar Amount Growth Policy & Timing Adjusted

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mid-year-FY14-15-presentation.pdf

Mid‐Year Update Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania 2015 Revenue Conference Economic Outlook for 2015 and 2016. • Forecasts: June 2014 vs. January 2015. • Drop in gas prices: SUT and other impacts. • Real wage is average of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas. Average CPI‐U 2014 +1.2% Alternative ‐$40m & ‐$80m +2.4% Revenue Outlook 28.Jan.2015 14 28.Jan.2015 IFO General Fund Estimate Revenue Source FY 14‐15 Estimate Growth General Fund

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Five_Year_Outlook_2015_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 9, 2015 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21, will be available for download

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Five-Year-Outlook-Nov-2013-Press-Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 14, 2013 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Independent Fiscal Office Director Matthew Knittel today announced the release of an updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013-14 to 2018-19, provides data and analysis that

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EPLC-2-19-21.pdf

COVID relief spurs income growth, revenues, expenditure offsets State budget ▪ What are the revenue trends? ▪ What is the longer-term outlook? Some miscellaneous budget topics ▪ Property tax: replace with income and sales tax? ▪ Tax burden rankings: how does PA compare to million of payments were shifted to February 2021 due to the COVID-related closure of a payment processing facility. Revenue Outlook: Weak Growth for FY 2021-22 February 19, 2021 17 Adjusted Base Yr Avg Ann FY 20-21 FY 21-

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2012-08 Monthly Economic Summary_Final.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6

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Publicity - Economic and Budget Outlook - 2014.pdf

 www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20 Date and Time: Thursday, November 13, 2014; 1:30 p.m. Location: Harrisburg years. Guest Presenter: Daniel White, Senior Economist Moody’s Analytics Presentation on two topics that influence the long-term economic outlook for Pennsylvania: (1) the composition of job creation; and (2) trends in household formation. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget

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Presentation_Phil_Chamber_2-12-2015.pdf

used for advisory purposes only.  Our Primary Duties: • Annual Revenue Estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Economic and Budget Outlook: November 15. • Mid-Year Update: late January.  Office Does Not Make Policy Recommendations. 12.Feb.2015 3 The Independent Independent Fiscal Office: May 1 and June 15. • Administration: end of June (certified estimate).  II. The Economic and Budget Outlook. • Independent Fiscal Office: November 15. • Five-year projections, focus is on long-term trends.  III. The Mid-Year Updates

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Presentation_PASBO_Annual_Conference_3-8-2018.pdf

an IFO projection. March 8, 2018 Fiscal Update 2017-18 Revisions to Revenue Estimate 2018-19 Advance Estimate Long-Term Outlook Revenue Update; FYTD Through February IFO revenue estimate holding up well to date. Revenues ~$600+ million ahead of IFO estimate 2,859 734 2,594 611 265 123 27 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. March 8, 2018 Five-Year Fiscal Outlook 28 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% Revenues (net of refunds) Expenditures Note: Percentages refer to

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Presentation_2016-05-12_PaDUC_Impact_of_Demographics.pdf

analysis. No governing board. Our Primary Duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15. • Five‐Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy Recommendations. 2 The Independent Fiscal Office 12 tax return. Exempt income from various data sources. For a full explanation and description, see IFO’s Economic and Budget Outlook (January 2016). Nominal GDP from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. AAGR is average annual growth rate. Tax Base Erosion

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Presentation-Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook INITIAL REVENUE ESTIMATE FISCAL YEAR 2018-19 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office May 1, 2018 Today Other -44 Note: Dollar amounts in millions. JUA is Pennsylvania Professional Liability Joint Underwriting Association. May.01.2018 4 Economic Outlook May.01.2018 5 PA wage growth accelerates.  Statewide annual wage growth ~+4.3%.  Split: +1.0% job

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Presentation-2019-3-1-EPLC.pdf

ECONOMIC & BUDGET OUTLOOK Education Policy and Leadership Center Commonwealth of Pennsylvania March 1, 2019 Today’s IFO Presentation  Executive Summary | Crucial Assumptions and Expenditures: one-time measures dominate  State and Local Revenues: property tax, impact fee March 1, 2019 2 Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceeding estimate for FY 2018-19. Sales tax revenues very strong (much is permanent). Corporate net income gains

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Presentation-2018-11-19-CCAP.pdf

November 19, 2018 PA Fiscal Update and Outlook County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania November 19, 2018 1 Three Quick Updates  Demographic projections and outlook (3 slides)  Job creation and the PA labor force (3)  FY 2019-20: a difficult budget year ahead

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MER-2015-04.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 Gasoline Prices Brent Crude Oil East Coast Regular Gasoline Pennsylvania Regular Gasoline 1 .EIA, Short‐Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook, April 2015. 2 .EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, April 2015. Author: mstalczynski CreationDate: 2015-05-01 13:13:01 Creator: PScript5

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

In addition to questions about the IFO’s budget, past hearings have included wide-ranging discussions regarding Pennsylvania’s economic outlook, labor market, revenue collections, demographics, long-term fiscal outlook and energy industry trends. The office has compiled some of the most frequently requested data and included it with this

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IFO_Hearing_8-30-2017.pdf

Published Reports and Analyses (since June 2016) • FY 2016-17 Official Revenue Estimate (June 2016) • Impact Fee Update and 2016 Outlook (July 2016) • Revenue Estimate Performance (August 2016) • Quarterly Revenue Estimate (August 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 2 (August 2016 Note Transmittal for A10803 to Senate Bill 1071 (October 2016) • Quarterly Revenue Review (October 2016) • Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2016) • Natural Gas Production Report Quarter 3 (November 2016) • Impact Fee Estimate (January 2017) • School District Property Tax Forecast

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Five_Year_Outlook_2014_Press_Release.pdf

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 13, 2014 Independent Fiscal Office Releases Long-Term Economic and Budget Outlook (Harrisburg) - - Director Matthew Knittel has announced the release of the Independent Fiscal Office’s updated long-term economic and budget outlook. The report, entitled Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, will be available for download

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EPLC Feb 2020 FINAL.pdf

all time high | mortgage refis double State budget  What are the revenue trends?  What is the longer-term outlook? Some miscellaneous budget topics  Property tax: replace with income and sales tax?  Tax burden rankings: how does PA Tax Gap studies. Sources: Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Social Security Administration. Computations by IFO. Budget Outlook Highlights Revenues: exceed estimate for FY 2019-20  Most gains are in inheritance tax and escheats  Labor market

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

board. Separate from legislature.  Our primary duties: • General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Actuarial analysis of pension legislation. • Special studies at request of General Assembly.  Office makes NO policy recommendations of dollars. PSERS is Public School Employees’ Retirement System and SERS is State Employees’ Retirement System. Source: IFO Five-Year Outlook Reports and Executive Budgets. Pensions – Employer Rates February 28, 2017 14 20% 11% 5% 4% 5% 21% 36% 13% 9%

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Announcement-Updated_Revenue_Estimates_and_Report.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 21, 2016 IFO to Release Revised Revenue Estimates and Updated Fiscal Outlook The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will hold a public presentation to release new revenue estimates and provide an update to its five-year economic and budget outlook. Date and Time: Wednesday, January 27, 2016; 2:00 p.m. Location: 14 th Floor Conference Center, Harrisburg University, 326

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2020_Mid_Year_Update.pdf

Q2 notably strong ~+5.0%  Some deceleration since then | 2019 Q4 ~4.1% | net jobs growth slows too  Outlook is for ~3.9% growth Estimated payments very strong  April +12.3% | June +13.0% | Sept +11.1%  growth estimated and finals  Phase in to 40% NOL offset taxable income  Profits shift into tax year 2018 Outlook for 2020: 3.5% taxable profits growth January 28, 2020 13 Growth Rates: Corporate Payments, Profits, S&P 500 January

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2019-Pub-2.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office presents Fiscal Years 2019-20 to 2024-25 Date and Time Economic and Budget Outlook Location Agenda Guest Presenters Thursday, November 14, 2019 at 1:30 pm Harrisburg University of Science and Technology Conference Center 14th Floor 326 Market Street, Harrisburg PA The IFO will present the results from its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years. The impact of demographic and economic trends on the outlook will

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2015_Economic_and_Budget_Outlook.pdf

 www.ifo.state.pa.us  (717) 230-8293 Independent Fiscal Office ANNOUNCEMENT Annual Presentation Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 Date and Time: Wednesday, December 9, 2015; 2:00 p.m. Location: 2 Pennsylvania Presentation on retirement insecurity and the challenges facing Baby Boomers as they retire. Report Distribution: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015-16 to 2020-21 will be available. Questions / Information: (717) 230-8293 or contact@ifo.state.pa

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

Keystone Pension Report, Governor’s Office of the Budget, 1 November 2012, p. 7. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November 2 2012, pp. 49-50. Independent Fiscal Office, The Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012-13 to 2017-18, November 3 2012, p. 49. Public Employee Retirement Commission, Status Report on Local

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2012-12 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Release.pdf

are the largest component of the state economy, and the recent weakness in collections motivated a revision to the economic outlook for 2016 and 2017.” A copy of the revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on

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Presentation_Rotary_Club_of_York_7-15-2015.pdf

4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS & PSERS Total 7/15 6/30 Annual Increase Cumulative Increase from FYE 2015 General Fund - Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014-15 to 2019-20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014.  Proposed legislation: • Senate Bill 1 (vetoed) – moves

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Presentation_Pension_Town_Hall_3-26-2015.pdf

4,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $ Millions Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014‐15 to 2019‐20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. General Fund Appropriations SERS & PSERS Total 3/26 6/30 Annual Increase Cumulative Increase from FYE 2015 General Fund ‐ Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2014‐15 to 2019‐20, Independent Fiscal Office, November 2014. Independent Fiscal Office Rachel Carson Office Building, 2

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Presentation-2018-06-PICPA.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE Tight labor market sustains wage growth.  Inflation accelerates above 2%. Helps pricing power. June.12.2018 2 Optimistic Revenue Outlook Wage income - statewide growth is strong.  Withholding growth +4.4% since start of FY 17-18.  Rough split

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Pennsylvania_Aging_Presentation.pdf

25% in 2016.  More income dedicated to housing expenses.  More housing debt. III.Funding for Seniors’ Programs.  Outlook for revenue sources is tepid.  Demand and price effects create imbalance. May 24, 2017 2 I. Demographic Trends  York. May 24, 2017 16 Change in Real Per Capita Debt: 2003 to 2015 III. Revenue & Funding Trends  Revenue outlook is modest.  Partly due to maturation of economy.  Also due to long-term tax base erosion.  Strong

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PA_Economy_League_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook An Overview of School District Property Tax Reform INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE sponsored by the PA Economy League MAY 19, 2017 governing board. Our Primary Duties:  General Fund Revenue Estimate: May 1 & Jun. 15.  Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook: Nov. 15.  Actuarial analysis for pension legislation.  Special studies at request of General Assembly. Office Makes NO Policy

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MTR-2017-02.pdf

Pennsylvania follows these projected national trends. February 2017 Monthly Trends Report PA Electricity Generation By Source 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook, U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ report/electricity.cfm Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. United States Pennsylvania Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-

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MTR-2016-09.pdf

third quarter suggest a slight recovery of approximately five to ten cents per gallon. Looking forward, the Global Dairy Market Outlook projects that dairy prices will be volatile, but prices should generally recover as foreign dairy production slows. 4 Many factors 2016. 3 WSJ, “Food Price Deflation Cheers Consumers, Hurts Farmers, Grocers and Restaurants.” August 29, 2016. 4 Global Dairy Market Outlook, “Global Markets see August Rally,” August 29, 2016. 5 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey. $3.00

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MTR-2016-06.pdf

of the U.S. dollar, which restrains exports. In June, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund reduced their 2016 outlooks for global and U.S. economic growth. Despite these trends, Pennsylvania’s economy remains relatively healthy; however, the release of later this month of June employment growth and second quarter GDP will provide key insights to the U.S. economic outlook. June 2016 Monthly Trends Report 1 The Wall Street Journal, “Economic Gauges Raise Specter of Recession,” June 19, 2016. Notes

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Monthly_Economic_Update_May_2020.pdf

Public Pension Funding Outlook Negative; Philadelphia Plan One of Most At-Risk The Center for State & Local Government Excellence published an article detailing public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS) are slated to be released at the end of June. Philadelphia Fed Releases Weekly Business Outlook Survey on COVID-19 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reports on a weekly survey of over 200 businesses in

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MER-2015-03.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 as delayed marriages, but is probably more strongly related to the financial crisis. Recent inflation data confirm that the economic outlook for renters in Pennsylvania may be deteriorating. Fig‐ ure 2 displays the growth rate for the Philadelphia met‐ ro region

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MER-2015-01.pdf

was initiated during the latest three-month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5 from the University of Michi- gan suggest that the drop in gasoline prices is having a dramatic impact on consumers’ outlook and confidence. The recent surge in consumer sentiment aligns exactly with the drop in gasoline prices. Analysts project that consumer

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MER-2014-04.pdf

units only) of privately owned homes upon which construction was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-03.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4

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MER-2014-02.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4

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MER-2014-01.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes‐ simism. 4

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MER-2013-12.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pes- simism. 4

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MER-2013-11.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2020.pdf

2018 include $5.0 million in fees attributable to 2016 and 2017 that were remitted late. Impact Fee Update and Outlook INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE PAGE 2 Effective Tax Rate The impact fee does not directly respond to the price of natural market value of gas. The market value decline was due entirely to a 27 percent decline in regional prices. 2020 Outlook For CY 2020, two factors will have significant implications for impact fee revenues. They include:  Statutory fee schedule. The

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Impact-Fee-Update-Outlook-2019-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 2019 1 Impact Fee Update and 2019 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in 3 percent) more than offset the $42.3 million increase in fee collections. Independent Fiscal Office June 2019 3 2019 Outlook For CY 2019, two factors will have significant implications for impact fee revenues. They include:  Statutory fee schedule. The

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Impact-Fee-Update-2018-Outlook-2018-06.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office June 2018 1 Impact Fee Update and 2018 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the regional hub price. The increase in the market value more than offset the increase in impact fee revenues. 2018 Outlook For CY 2018, two factors will have significant implications for impact fee revenues. They include:  The statutory fee schedule

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Duties  Per Act 120 of 2010:  Initial (May 1) and Official (June 15) revenue estimate.  Five-Year Outlook Report (November 15).  Annual Revenue Conference (January 31).  Two Studies: (1) Sales and Use Tax, (2) Shared Risk  Interstate comparison of tax structures and tax burdens (later this month). 10.Jul.2012 10 2012 GPNP Conference Economic Outlook: Another Summer Slowdown?  European debt crisis continues to simmer.  Weak employment reports for May and June.  Uncertainty

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Five_Year_Outlook_2017_PSERS_State_Share_Update.pdf

lower than the employer contribution rate used to estimate the state share of PSERS employer contributions in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23, which was issued by the Independent Fiscal Office on November 16, 2017. The remain unchanged. The following table displays an update to Table 5.6, which was originally published in the Economic & Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2017-18 to 2022-23 on November 16, 2017 (see page 49). The table shows total state General

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

This report fulfills the demographics obligation in advance of the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2020-21 to 2025-26. Demographics are a critical factor that motivate long-term economic, revenue and expenditure trends 5.2.2 ModDate: 2020-12-09 16:20:19 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 15.0 (Windows) Title: Demographics Outlook 2020

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2013-10 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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2013-09 Monthly Economic Summary-FINAL.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

Hits: 2

2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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2013-06 Monthly Economic Summary - FINAL.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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2013-05_Monthly_Economic_Summary.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

Hits: 2

2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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2013-03b Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

Hits: 2

2013-02 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

Hits: 2

2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 3 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 4 Average

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2012-11 Monthly Economic Summary- DRAFT 6.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average

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2012-10 Monthly Economic Summary FINAL.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6 Average

Hits: 2

2012-09 Monthly Economic Summary 7.pdf

based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. 5 Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of man- ufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 6

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2012-07 Monthly Economic Summary10.pdf

taxes based on latest three months of collections. Monthly residential sales data are not available at state level. Current Business Outlook Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufacturing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative num- ber indicates increasing pessimism. Data

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Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdf

Katharine Witgert Program Manager National Academy for State Health Policy Annual Presentation The Economic and Budget Outlook Independent Fiscal Office Commonwealth of Pennsylvania November 15, 2012 Health Care Reform: What it Means for States 1 • 25 year

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SR2014-03-presentation.pdf

fiscal, economic and budgetary issues.  Primary Duties: • Annual revenue estimate: May 1 and June 15. • Five-Year Economic & Budget Outlook: Nov. 15. • Mid-Year Budget Update: late January.  Office does not make policy recommendations. 16.Dec.2014 2 Independent

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Revenue_Estimate_Performance_Dec_2017.pdf

67 million). 1 Although the office also makes revenue projections each November as part of its five-year outlook, those estimates are not included in this document because they are not materially different than the official estimate released in the prior

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $31.0 billion for FY15-16 represents an increase of $406 million (1

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $30.54 billion for FY14-15 represents an increase of $1,932 million

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods and

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-05-04_Release.pdf

revenue estimate is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. The report discusses the economic outlook, and a separate document describes the methods and data used to make the projections. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $28.5 billion for FY13-14 represents a decrease of $103 million (-0

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document describes the methods and

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Revenue-Estimate-Performance-2018-07.pdf

67 million). 1 Although the office also makes revenue projections each November as part of its five-year outlook, those estimates are not included in this document because they are not materially different than the official estimate released in the prior

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

4.93% interest rate for FY 2019-20 is from the IFO’s most recent Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook released in November 2018. Independent Fiscal Office Page 8  The $2.65 billion total cap is roughly equal to

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Presentation_PBC_6-12-14.pdf

PBC Policy Roundtable June 12, 2014 Matthew Knittel Director, Independent Fiscal Office How Demographics Impact the Pennsylvania Economy Demographic Outlook o General Trends: past decade and next two. o Demographic Waves: Baby Boomers and Others. o Very long term: trends

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Presentation_Harrisburg_Rotary_4-11-2016.pdf

SERS PSERS Projected 4/11/2016 14 Pension Projections General Fund ‐ Annual and Cumulative Increases Source: Pennsylvania’s Economic & Budget Outlook; Fiscal Years 2015‐16 to 2020‐21, Independent Fiscal Office, January 2016. $527 $283 $161 $170 $77 $527 $810 $971

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Presentation-2019-01-Mid-Year-Update.pdf

13 Sports Wagering 0 75 28 All Other 2 8 10 Total $129 $201 $56 Note: Millions of dollars. Initial Outlook for FY 2019-20 January 29, 2019 15 Amount $ Change Growth General Fund $35,272 $1,000 2.9% Corporate

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Presentation-2018-08-PA-State-Association-Boroughs.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS & THE PA ECONOMY PA State Association of Boroughs Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 MATTHEW KNITTEL, DIRECTOR Independent

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Presentation-2018-06-Philly-Pitt-Chambers.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE The Allegheny Conference on Community Development and The Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

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Presentation-2018-06-PASBO.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook BUDGET & ECONOMIC UPDATE Pennsylvania Association of School Business Officials Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 1, 2018 Independent fiscal office JUNE 5

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Pitt_Chamber_Presentation.pdf

90 million), inheritance collections above estimate (+$30 million)  Significant revenue uncertainty for remainder of fiscal year Longer-term budget outlook remains challenging under current law  FY 2017-18: modest surplus if $200 million Joint Underwriter's Association transfer received

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PICPA_Presentation.pdf

minimum wage increase.  Gas prices recently recover. Will it last?  Minimum wage: higher incomes vs. lower employment. The Outlook in February 2017 June 7, 2017 16 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Growth Beginning Balance $275 $2 -$936 Revenue

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Newsstand_March_2020.pdf

March 2020 | | www.ifo.state.pa.us Pennsylvania News National News IFO NEWS STAND Outlook for Regional Manufacturing Unclear The New York Federal Reserve released its March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Responses gath- ered

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Newsstand_2018_April.pdf

U.S. chemi- cal manufacturing sector” and general economic development. (Full Article) -April 2018 - Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028 The CBO updated its deficit projections from the previous release in June 2017 to show substantial growth

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MTR-2017-01.pdf

will be going forward. January 2017 Monthly Trends Report Pennsylvania Housing Market 1 National Association of Realtors, “U.S. Economic Outlook: December 2016,” December 2016. 2 National Association of Realtors, “Existing-Home Sales Slide in December; 2016 Sales Best Since 2006

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MTR-2016-10.pdf

over the longer term, much of the sudden fall in 2016 is likely due to very low inflation and cautious outlooks for economic growth. Partial data for 2016 Q3 and Q4 suggest a modest acceleration of average wage growth. For 2017

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MSC_March_31_2021.pdf

new American Rescue Plan stimulus. Prior year lapses include transfers to Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Source: IFO Economic and Budget Outlook, FY 20-21 to 25-26 (Jan 2021). FYTD Revenues (Adjusted for Delayed Due Dates) March 31, 2021 4 Actual

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MRU-2020-3.pdf

guidance for next fiscal year. This update is currently scheduled for release on April 8 and will include the revenue outlook under two potential scenarios that are based on the duration of business closures in Pennsylvania. If you would like to

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MRU-2020-09.pdf

passage of a partial-year budget, the IFO will delay the release of its regular five-year economic and budget outlook in mid-November. In its place, the office will release an updated economic and revenue forecast for FY 2020-21

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

21. The monthly estimates are based on the FY 2020-21 projections contained in the Five Year Economic and Budget Outlook published by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) on January 21, 2021, which includes adjustments to reflect the impact of statutory

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mid-year-FY14-15-press-release.pdf

Knittel cautioned that reductions in the estimates for other revenue sources offset some of the gains from the improved economic outlook. The table below contains an overview of the revisions to the IFO’s revenue estimate. Revisions to the IFO’s

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MER-2015-06.pdf

was initiated during the latest three-month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac- turing firms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2015-02.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

Hits: 1

MER-2014-12.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-11.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-10.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-09.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-08.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-07.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-06.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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MER-2014-05.pdf

was initiated during the latest three‐month period. 4 Current Business Activity Index A diffusion index that measures the current outlook of manufac‐ turing Ðirms in the third federal reserve district (PA, NJ, DE). A negative number indicates increasing pessimism. 5

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jackson ppt.pdf

US and Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Tom Jackson, Senior Economist, U.S. Regional Economics January 18, 2012 © 2012, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Press_Release.pdf

statutory changes identified in the Executive Budget. A copy of the revenue estimate, which includes a discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. Follow the Independent Fiscal Office on Twitter

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Initial_Estimate_May_2017_Presentation.pdf

Economic and Budget Outlook Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2016-17 to FY 2021-22 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May 2, 2017 The Economic Forecast. 

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

sound economic fundamentals and potential for further expansion into next fiscal year. There are three concerns which temper this optimistic outlook. First, sales tax collections were weak in January, and nearly flat from the prior year. Many states experienced similar weakness

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IFO_Revenue_Estimate_2013-14_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

increased business investment and higher consumption of taxable goods and services would signal more sustainable growth and a better revenue outlook. Author: mryan CreationDate: 2014-01-23 15:45:15 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2014-01-23

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IFO_Retirement_Task_Force_Jan2018_Presentation.pdf

23.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Data for 2017 and 2025 are estimates from the IFO Economic and Budget Outlook (Nov. 2017). Jan.25.2018 4 Independent Fiscal Office Multiple Factors Drive PA Aging 0 20,000 40,000 60

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Grow PA 12.3.2019.pdf

0.9% 3.5% --- Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Economic and Budget Outlook, IFO (Nov. 2019), Zillow, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. CreationDate: 2019-12-02 19:52:52 Creator: Microsoft

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

ECONOMIC AND BUDGET OUTLOOK Fiscal Years 2020-21 to 2025-26 The Independent Fiscal Office presents Date and Time Thursday, January 21, 2021 at

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CompetePA_March_11_2021.pdf

new American Rescue Plan stimulus. Prior year lapses include transfers to Budget Stabilization Reserve Fund. Source: IFO Economic and Budget Outlook, FY 20-21 to 25-26 (Jan 2021). PA Macroeconomic Indicators for 2020 Q4 March 11, 2021 4 PA Economic

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Budget_Hearing_Background-Feb2014.pdf

official estimate with adjustments for tax law changes enacted in conjunction with the state budget. • Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook. Due by November 15 each year. • Quarterly Revenue Review. Published after each quarter to compare the IFO’s revenue estimates

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

The session is open to the public. After the briefing, a report discussing the revenue projections and Pennsylvania’s economic outlook will be available on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate document will describe the

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

Fund revenue from FY 2017-18 to 2021-22 in the IFO’s November 2016 five-year economic and budget outlook. Table 4 provides de- tail for each fiscal year. Table 2 divides the projected costs/(savings) into three time periods

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2018_Mid-Year_Update.pdf

May final payment. 29.Jan.2018 24 Corporate Net Income Tax Trends Mid-Year Update 29.Jan.2018 25 Initial Outlook for FY 2018-19 Preliminary Annual Increase Amount Dollar Percent General Fund $33,914 -$866 -2.5% Corporate Net Income

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2013 Appropriation Hearings Background Information.pdf

that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) considers in its evaluation of the U.S. and Pennsylvania economies and the revenue outlook for the Commonwealth. Any views expressed in the referenced articles do not necessarily reflect the views of the IFO, but

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Releases

and Revenue Analyst Jesse Bushman gave a presentation to the Marcellus Shale Coalition regarding the Commonwealth’s economic and budget outlook and recent natural gas trends. Tags: budget , economic , employment , gas , presentation Full Report House Budget Hearing Request March 23, 2021 | News Stand & Other The IFO responded

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Links

Case-Shiller Home Prices • Consumer Confidence PA Economic Indicators • Labor Force and Employment • Quarterly Personal Income • Gross State Product • Business Outlook, Philadelphia Fed State Government • Department of Labor and Industry • Department of Revenue • General Assembly • Office of the Budget • Office of

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