Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office
Independent Fiscal Office
Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office

Natural Gas Production Report

Commentary and Analysis

2015 Reports and Analysis:

  • Natural Gas Production Report, January to June 2015 (released September 2015).
    Analyzes data collected by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection on natural gas production and well counts.
  • Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding changes to the personal income and sales taxes proposed in the Executive Budget.  The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Finance Committee (June 2015).
  • Testimony by Director Matthew Knittel regarding a proposed severance tax . The information was presented at a public hearing conducted by the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy and Finance Committees (June 2015).
  • Letter discussing issues that should be considered when evaluating a potential state-level tax on the transfer of securities (May 2015).
  • Analysis of revenue proposals in the 2015-16 Executive Budget (April 2015).
  • Letter discussing the effect of Act 1, which uses an index to limit the ability of school districts to increase real property millage rates (April 2015).
  • Letter providing estimates for a potential proposal to give homestead owners school property tax rebates equal to the statewide average school property tax paid (March 2015).
  • State and Local Taxes: A Comparison Across States (March 2015).
    The report examines how Pennsylvania's state and local tax structure compares to other states. It uses data published by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to make comparisons.


2014 Reports and Analysis:

  • Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school property tax collections for FY 2013-14 through FY 2019-20 (December 2014). 
  • Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation (December 2014).
    The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios.
  • Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison (March 2014).
    The report provides an interstate comparison of the taxes or fees that would be levied on an unconventional gas well, or the gas extracted from such a well, over its lifetime under four production / price scenarios.

2013 Reports and Analysis:

Research Briefs

  • Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania (November 2015).
    Examines a proposal from the FY 2015-16 Executive Budget to raise the state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 per hour.
  • Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook (June 2015).
    Provides final CY 2014 impact fee revenues and the corresponding annual average effective tax rate, along with a new analysis of recent production data and discussion of possible scenarios for CY 2015 impact fee collections (to be remitted in April 2016).
  • Impact Fee Update (February 2015).
    Provides an estimate of CY 2014 impact fee revenues and the corresponding annual average effective tax rate, along with discussion on recent price and production trends in the natural gas industry.
    • Background - Explanation of effective tax rates - annual average vs. lifetime
  • Pennsylvania Gaming Trends (February 2015).
    Examines tax revenue trends for casino and pari-mutuel gaming and net profit trends for the lottery.
  • State Economic Comparison (September 2014).
    Uses new data to examine the performance of the Pennsylvania economy and four adjacent states over a ten year period.

Monthly Economic Reports

Effective with the July 2015 report, the Monthly Economic Report has been discontinued and the contents merged into the Monthly Trends Report.






Monthly Trend Reports

Monthly Revenue Reports

Quarterly Revenue Review

Fiscal Year 2015-16

Fiscal Year 2014-15

Fiscal Year 2013-14


Revenue Estimate and Outlook

IFO Revenue Estimates and Outlook:

  • FY 2015-16 quarterly revenue estimates for the General Fund, Motor License Fund and Lottery Fund (September 2015)
  • FY 2015-16 official estimate and FY 2014-15 estimate revisions (June 2015)
  • Analysis of Revenue Proposals in the FY 2015-16 Executive Budget (April through September 2015).
    • Updated document (September 2015) includes a technical appendix that provides additional detail and discussion regarding the assumptions used for the analysis.
    • Sales and use and personal income tax testimony and data tables prepared for a public hearing of the Senate Finance Committee.
    • Severance tax testimony and data tables prepared for a public hearing of the Senate Finance and Environmental Resources and Energy Committees.
    • Article from Forbes Energy (August 2015) regarding the potential incidence of the proposed severance tax.
    • IFO's response to the Forbes Energy article.
    • A Wall Street Journal article ("In New England, Shale Gas Is Hard to Get," September 30, 2015) discusses the pent-up demand for natural gas in New England. Content available to subscribers only.
  • Mid-year update for FY 2014-15 (January 2015)
  • Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook:  FY 2014-15 to 2019-20 (November 2014)


IFO Budget Hearing Testimony:


  • Deputy Director Mark Ryan made a presentation to the Rotary Club of York providing background information for the debate on public pensions. (7/15/2015)

  • Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at an event sponsored by the Pennsylvania Institute of CPAs. (6/9/15)

  • Director Matthew Knittel made a presentation at an event sponsored by the Pennsylvania Economy League and Greater Reading Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

  • Director Matthew Knittel testified in front of the House and Senate Appropriations Commmittees to start the hearings on the proposed FY 2015-16 state budget. (3/2015)
  • Director Matthew Knittel’s presentation to the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce on the IFO’s updated economic and budget outlook for FY 2014-15 is now available here. (2/12/2015)
  • Director Matthew Knittel's presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) discussing Pennsylvania's economic and budget outlook and fiscal year-to-date revenues is available  here. (12/03/2014)

  • Director Matthew Knittel's presentation to the Pennsylvania Business Council discussing the impact of demographics on the Pennsylvania economy is available. (6/12/2014)