Independent Fiscal Office
www.ifo.state.pa.us
Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office
Releases
Commentary and Analysis
2014 Reports and Analysis:
- Letter updating the IFO's forecast of school property tax collections for FY 2013-14 through FY 2019-20 (December 2014).
- Fiscal Implications of a York County School District Consolidation (December 2014).
The report provides potential consolidation savings and costs for 15 York County school districts and computes the real estate tax millage using various earned income tax rates and administrative savings scenarios. - Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison (March 2014).
The report provides an interstate comparison of the taxes or fees that would be levied on an unconventional gas well, or the gas extracted from such a well, over its lifetime under four production / price scenarios.- Full report
- Analysis-in-Brief (2 pages)
- Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)
- The Pennsylvania Lottery: Historical Data and Interstate Comparisons (January 2014).
The report examines historical sales and profit data for the PA Lottery and provides comparisons to other states.
2013 Reports and Analysis:
- Letter providing data on the share of residential and nonresidential property assessments by county (December 2013).
The letter was in response to a request regarding HB 1693, which is a consitutional amendment permitting different millage rates for residential and nonresidential property.
- Letter providing an analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older (October 2013).
The analysis presents a preliminary assessment of data on the cost of a school property tax freeze for those homeowners and a brief discussion of factors that affect the cost of a freeze over the long-term.
- Analysis of Proposal to Replace School Property Taxes: House Bill 76 and Senate Bill 76 (October 2013).
- Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee on 10/15/2013.
- Data for the graphs in section 4 of the report that display the annual and cumulative changes in personal income, sales and school property tax collections.
- An Analysis of Michigan Property Tax Reform (September 2013).
The report illustrates the impact of property tax reform on Michigan tax revenues, millage rates, per pupil funding levels and the property tax base over the past two decades.
- Letter containing projections of the school property taxes paid by Pennsylvania homesteads (September 2013).
- 2013 Tax Comparison (August 2013).
The report calculates total state and local tax burdens across all states using the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Letter containing an estimate of property taxes paid by Lancaster County homeowners aged 70 and over (June 2013).
- Uncapping the Film Production Tax Credit: A Fiscal and Economic Analysis (May 2013).
- Pennsylvania Turnpike Toll Revenue Projections: CY 2013 to CY 2024 (May 2013).
A letter summarizing the report for the House Transportation Committee also is available.
- An Analysis of Medicaid Expansion in Pennsylvania (May 2013).
This report was updated based on data that became available after its initial release. Also, a response to DPW comments is provided.
- Corporate Tax Base Erosion: Analysis of Policy Options (March 2013).
A one-page executive summary of the report is provided.
- Proposed Sales Tax Exemption: Aircraft Sales, Parts and Maintenance and Repair (January 2013).
Research Briefs
- State Economic Comparison (September 2014).
The research brief uses new data to examine the performance of the Pennsylvania economy and four adjacent states over a ten year period.
Monthly Economic Reports
2014
2013
2012
Monthly Revenue Reports
FY 2014-15
FY 2013-14
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
FY 2012-13
Quarterly Revenue Review
Fiscal Year 2014-15
Fiscal Year 2013-14
- 2013 Q3 (July to September 2013)
- 2013 Q4 (October to December 2013)
- 2014 Q1 (January to March 2014)
- 2014 Q2 (April to June 2014)
Revenue Estimate and Outlook
IFO Revenue Estimates:
- Five-Year Economic and Budget Outlook (November 2014)
- Quarterly revenue estimates (August 2014) FY 2014-15 official estimate and FY 2013-14 revisions (June 2014)
- Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates - General Fund, Motor LIcense Fund and Lottery Fund
- Revenue Estimate and Economic Outlook
- General Fund Snapshot (1 page)
- Press Release
- Methodology
- Fiscal Year 2014-15 Quarterly Revenue Estimates - General Fund, Motor LIcense Fund and Lottery Fund
- Mid-year update for FY 2013-14 (January 2014)
- Previously published estimates are available upon request (contact@ifo.state.pa.us).
IFO Budget Hearing Testimony:
- House and Senate Appropriations Committees (February 2014)
- Opening Comments
- Background Information
- House Appropriations Committee - response to requests for additional information
- Senate Appropriations Committee - response to requests for additional information
Presentations
- IFO Director Matthew Knittel recently made a presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants (PICPA) discussing the economic and budget outlook for Pennsylvania. The presentation also provides an update on fiscal year-to-date revenues and is available here. (12/03/2014)
- Director Matthew Knittel's presentation to the Pennsylvania Business Council discussing the impact of demographics on the Pennsylvania economy is available. (6/12/2014)
- Presentation
- Spreadsheet with additional employment, demographic and international migration data.
- Director Matthew Knittel’s presentation to the Pennsylvania Institute of Certified Public Accountants is available here. (6/3/2014)
- Deputy Director Mark Ryan's revenue and economic outlook presentation to the Greater Pittsburgh Chamber of Commerce is available here. (3/7/2014)