Child Care Stimulus Funds DepletedThis research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). Tags: brief, care, child, research |
Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly WagesThis research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour. Tags: brief, minimum, research, wage |
Gasoline Consumption Remains SubduedThe IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers. Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research |
Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since PandemicThis research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. Tags: brief, cigarette, research, tax |
PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to InflationThe COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker. Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, research |
Pennsylvania's Strained Nursing HomesThe IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019. Tags: brief, homes, nursing, research |
Treasury Windfalls Boost RevenuesTreasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term. Tags: brief, research, treasury |
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage ContractsThis research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. Tags: brief, budget, contracts, impact, research, wage |
Inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, pensions, research |
Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code. Tags: brief, cnit, research |
What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports. Tags: brief, lottery, research |
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium EndsAs part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. Tags: brief, loan, research, student |
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. Tags: brief, migration, research |
Emergency Rental Assistance EndsThe IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state. Tags: assistance, brief, rental, research |
Post-Pandemic Gasoline ConsumptionThe IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects. Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research |
Unemployment Compensation by AGIThe IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds. Tags: brief, compensation, research, unemployment |
Young Workers Leave PA WorkforceThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate. Tags: brief, reduction, research, worker |
Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.
Tags: brief, demographics, labor, research |
Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives. Tags: brief, research, snap |
Student Loan Debt ForgivenessThe IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. Tags: brief, debt, loan, student |
County Income PatternsThis research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. Tags: brief, county, incomes, research |
Pennsylvania's Gasoline TaxThe IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. Tags: brief, gasoline, research, tax |
Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding OptionThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021. Tags: brief, pension, research |
PA Residents Migrating to Southern StatesThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. Tags: brief, migration, research |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. Tags: brief, loans, research, student |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. Tags: brief, county, incomes, research |
Economic Impact of Federal StimulusThis research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. Tags: brief, county, incomes, research |
More Older Pennsylvanians WorkingThis research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of Pennsylvania payroll workers. Compared to data prior to COVID-19, there has been a large absolute (number) and relative (growth) increase in older workers. 04/17/2024 |
March 2024 Revenue UpdateThe Commonwealth collected $6.28 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase $89 million (+1.4%) compared to March 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. 04/01/2024 |
Child Care Stimulus Funds DepletedThis research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). 03/21/2024 |
2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400This research brief provides detail on the latest benchmark revision made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to Pennsylvania payroll jobs. 03/13/2024 |
Negative Revision to PA Job Gains ExpectedThis research brief examines the implications of a recent QCEW data release for state payroll jobs data. 02/29/2024 |
Economic ForumDirector Knittel made a brief presentation at the NFIB Economic Forum. 02/05/2024 |
Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly WagesThis research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour. 01/24/2024 |
SNAP Policy Changes Expand ProgramThis research brief uses the latest data from the US Dept of Agriculture to examine post-pandemic SNAP trends. Since November 2019, policy and definition changes have increased the number of recipients by 16% and the average monthly benefit by 52%. 01/03/2024 |
Gasoline Consumption Remains SubduedThe IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers. 12/19/2023 |
Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since PandemicThis research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. 12/11/2023 |
PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to InflationThe COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker. 11/30/2023 |
Pennsylvania's Strained Nursing HomesThe IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019. 10/25/2023 |
Treasury Windfalls Boost RevenuesTreasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term. 09/25/2023 |
Economic UpdateDirector Knittel made a brief presentation to an economic summit hosted by the York County Delegation of the General Assembly. 09/14/2023 |
County Income Patterns 2018-2021This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. 08/24/2023 |
Property Tax Burden By CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 08/22/2023 |
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage ContractsThis research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. 08/14/2023 |
Property Tax/Rent Rebate ExpansionThis research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county. 08/09/2023 |
Inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. 07/31/2023 |
Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code. 07/25/2023 |
Presentation on Combined ReportingDirector Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Finance Committee on combined reporting. 06/29/2023 |
What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports. 06/13/2023 |
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. 05/03/2023 |
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAPThe IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023 |
State Rainy Day and General Fund BalancesThe IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets. 03/24/2023 |
Emergency Rental Assistance EndsThe IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state. 03/06/2023 |
Pennsylvania Electricity UpdateThe IFO posted a research brief that provides an overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. For 2022, PA remains the top exporter of electricity across all states. The next largest state (AL) exported 40% less electricity. 03/01/2023 |
Post-Pandemic Child Care CliffThe IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future. 02/23/2023 |
SNAP Emergency Allotments End in FebruaryThe IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child. 01/27/2023 |
Post-Pandemic Gasoline ConsumptionThe IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects. 01/05/2023 |
PA Population Contracts Since 2020The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. 01/04/2023 |
Unemployment Compensation by AGIThe IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds. 12/21/2022 |
Tax Credits and Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 12/15/2022 |
Young Workers Leave PA WorkforceThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate. 12/08/2022 |
Economic and Budget OutlookThe Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/02/2022 |
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROIMichaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study. 10/26/2022 |
Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force. 10/25/2022 |
Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives. 09/29/2022 |
Property Tax Burden by CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 09/06/2022 |
Student Loan Debt ForgivenessThe IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. 08/31/2022 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. 08/16/2022 |
Pennsylvania's Gasoline TaxThe IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. 06/13/2022 |
Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding OptionThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021. 06/09/2022 |
Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania EconomyOn June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget. 06/07/2022 |
PA Residents Migrating to Southern StatesThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. 06/02/2022 |
Assumptions Used by RGGI ModelDirector Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI. This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1. 03/28/2022 |
Pennsylvania Electricity UpdateThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. 03/14/2022 |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022 |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 11/29/2021 |
Economic and Budget OutlookThe Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 11/04/2021 |
PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage GrowthUsing the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation. 11/03/2021 |
Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension BenefitsThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits. 10/19/2021 |
COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania DeathsThis research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021. 09/30/2021 |
Public Pension Status and OutlookThe IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in Pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant. 09/28/2021 |
Pennsylvania Electricity UpdateThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 09/09/2021 |
Property Tax UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee. 08/30/2021 |
Property Tax Burden by CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 08/25/2021 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/10/2021 |
Economic and Revenue UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day. 06/17/2021 |
Economic Impact of Federal StimulusThis research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021 |
Impact of COVID-19 on the State EconomyDirector Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy. 04/13/2021 |
Testimony on Minimum WageDirector Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Commerce Committee on the proposal to raise the minimum wage. The hearing was originally scheduled for February 16, 2021 but was rescheduled to March 11, 2021. 03/11/2021 |
January 2021 Economic and Budget OutlookThe Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 01/11/2021 |
PPP Loans to Pennsylvania BusinessesThis research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. 12/08/2020 |
IFO Public briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic UpdateThe IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation. 10/23/2020 |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 10/15/2020 |
Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania TaxpayersThis research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately. 10/13/2020 |
August 2020 Economic and Revenue UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat). 08/19/2020 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 06/10/2020 |
IFO Public briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register. 05/19/2020 |
Property Tax by County and IncomeThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age. 04/07/2020 |
Property Tax Update PresentationDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO. 03/13/2020 |
Testimony on Combined ReportingDirector Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues. 01/29/2020 |
2019 Impact Fee EstimateThis research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2019 Impact Fee collections. Collections are estimated to be $198.2 million, a decrease of $53.6 million from the prior year. 01/09/2020 |
Presentation to Grow PA CoalitionDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Outlook. 12/02/2019 |
Redevelopment Assistance Capital ProgramIn response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration. 10/31/2019 |
Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices. 09/20/2019 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/30/2019 |
Economic and Revenue UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 05/16/2019 |
Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop Migration Data RequestIn response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019. The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from Pennsylvania. 04/29/2019 |
Revenue and Economic UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 04/17/2019 |
2018 IMPACT FEE ESTIMATE - JANUARY 2019This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2018 Impact Fee collections. 01/24/2019 |
Revenue and Economic UpdateDirector Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. 10/09/2018 |
Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation 05/01/2018 |
Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations CommitteesThe Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20. The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table 02/16/2018 |
Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release 01/29/2018 |
2017 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2018This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018. 01/19/2018 |
School District Property Tax ForecastThis research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property. Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23. 01/18/2018 |
Impact Fee Update and 2017 OutlookThis research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 07/04/2017 |
Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations CommitteesThe IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21. The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Download a version for optimized web viewing 02/16/2017 |
Pennsylvania Gaming TrendsThis research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16. 02/13/2017 |
2016 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2017This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2016 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 01/02/2017 |
Impact Fee Update and 2016 OutlookThis research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 07/14/2016 |
Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15. 03/25/2016 |
Impact Fee Update - February 2016This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 02/29/2016 |
Raising the Minimum Wage in PennsylvaniaThis research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation. 11/30/2015 |
Impact Fee Update and 2015 OutlookThis research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015 |
Pennsylvania Gaming TrendsThis research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in Pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states. 02/28/2015 |
Impact Fee Update - February 2015This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015 |
State Economic ComparisonThis research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in Pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade. 09/30/2014 |
Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax ComparisonThis report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections) 03/17/2014 |
Analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and olderLetter providing an analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older (October 2013). The analysis presents a preliminary assessment of data on the cost of a school property tax freeze for those homeowners and a brief discussion of factors that affect the cost of a freeze over the long-term. 10/29/2013 |
index.cfmTax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases More Older Pennsylvanians Working Economics and Other April 17, 2024 This research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of Pennsylvania in General Fund revenues for March, an increase $89 million (+1.4%) compared to March 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. ... (Full Report) Analysis of Revenue Proposals Revenue Estimates Hits: 57 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdfspecial report contains a summary description of PSERS and SERS, a general discussion on the topic of divestment, including a brief history of divestment within the context of “socially responsible investing,” provides a description of the current situation with respect to and effective tool of a global economic boycott. Even then, the impact is questionable according to a newly published research brief by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College. The paper, which surveys prior academic studies, concludes that “the Hits: 16 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents of the federal monies disbursed directly to state residents since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides a brief discussion of the following provisions: ▪ Economic Impact Payments (EIPs), commonly referred to as stimulus checks. ▪ Expanded unemployment compensation (UC) programs Hits: 9 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfJeffrey Clay, Executive Director of the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS). Thank you for the opportunity today to provide brief comments about the pension issue and also for your sponsorship of these hearings. As previous speakers at these hearings have allowed. Pending Developments As of November 12, 2012, the Arizona Court of Appeals docketed an appeal with opening briefs due on December 24, 2012. The State plans to ask for the appeal to be transferred to the Arizona Supreme Court. _________________________________________________________________________________ Hall Hits: 9 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdfand issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year, and Data (2015) 17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18 Historical Spot Prices 19 Impact Fee Research Brief 20 PSERS and SERS Trends Employer Contribution Rates 22 Decomposition of Employer Rates 23 Change in Employer Contributions 24 Funded Hits: 7 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfAppropriations Committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify before you today. For my opening remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent Energy Information Administration and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. New Pipeline Capacity (15) Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐ Hits: 7 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfThis research brief updates an original release in July 2022 (updated August 2022) to include data for more recent months and new demographics but also because many workers have left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the current excess demand for labor, the magnitude of the state labor force contraction and the impact of near- Hits: 6 |
RB-2016-02.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice March 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐2 March 2016 Economic Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources and is not readily available. This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives Hits: 6 |
NGIFE-2015.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential scenarios Hits: 6 |
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdfThis research brief is the fourth in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal government and varies by state based on average per capita income. The three types of FMAP rates discussed in this brief are: (1) traditional, (2) newly eligible and (3) CHIP. For Pennsylvania, the current traditional rate is roughly 53% and applies Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfThis research brief updates an original release in July 2022 to show data for two more recent months (job openings, jobs, unemployment rates demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force since Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and then combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and levels from Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief in response to a request made during testimony before the House State Government Subcommittee on Public Pensions, Benefits and Risk Management (August 2021). The subcommittee requested that the IFO examine the financial impact from Act 105 of 2019. This research brief uses data from the affected entities to assess the immediate and long- term financial implications from that legislation. Overview of Hits: 5 |
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide an update on the status of public pension funds in the Commonwealth. The text that follows uses the pa.gov/Pages/Public-School-Employees-Retirement-System_details.aspx?newsid=166. Public Pension Status and Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Table 2 uses data from various IFO, SERS and PSERS reports to project Hits: 5 |
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends Hits: 5 |
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and then combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends from 2018 to Hits: 5 |
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdfIn response to a request from the General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and is believed to be nominal and omitted from this analysis. COVID-19 Impact on Local Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For 2020 Q2, it is known that the PIT withholding growth rate Hits: 5 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdfcaused 38,650 “excess deaths,” and the great majority (nearly 90%) impacted residents age 65 or older. See IFO Research Brief COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths (February 2022). 5 See IFO Research Brief Where Did the Workers Go? (Update) (October 2022). Number of Residents (000s) Change (000s) 2022 2019 2022 2025 19-22 Hits: 5 |
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdfThis research brief utilizes data from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset group (Chester, Montgomery and Delaware) border each other in the southeast region of the state. 1 All data in this brief are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 ACS 1-year PUMS dataset with adjustments made by the Hits: 5 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdfand awards, R&D spending and employment in sectors that are R&D intensive. Section 4 contains a brief literature review, a discussion of the factors that affect the economic return of the tax credit, and an economic impact analysis. Section of reports and data sources used for this review can be found in the Appendix, along with a brief summary of the recent Grand Jury report related to fraudulent R&D tax credit activity and agency responses. If submitted, written comments Hits: 4 |
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdfThis research brief presents Pennsylvania tax credit and other incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The brief separates incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The amount Hits: 4 |
SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdfin the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. Part Three describes the industries included in this analysis and briefly discusses the status of the aircraft industry in Pennsylvania over the past decade. Part Four derives the static revenue impact from an provide a meaningful incentive for consumers to reduce or eliminate tax liability. The text that follows provides a brief description of exemptions recently enacted in nearby states. Table 1 and the maps on the subsequent pages provide an overview of the Hits: 4 |
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdfor those attempting to enter the labor market. To examine how a higher minimum wage might impact workers, this research brief uses the latest data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). These state- the statewide average wage paid for these lower-wage workers. Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly Wages Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2024 State Cashiers Sales Cashiers Sales New York $13.20 $13.74 $13.95 $0.54 $0.75 New Hits: 4 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdfdemand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force since depicted as the number of unemployed to job openings but for ease of presentation, the ratio is reversed in this brief. 3 Data are seasonally adjusted. For Pennsylvania, the April 2022 data are preliminary. On July 6, BLS released U.S Hits: 4 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfforce participation rates. However, the labor force participation rate includes self- employed individuals (the employment-population ratio used for this brief does not) and is a broader measure. The employment-population ratio used for this brief also counts number of jobs, as opposed to individuals. If an individual worked two jobs in 2019 but only one Hits: 4 |
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdfThis research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The brief divides economic development incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs Hits: 4 |
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends Hits: 4 |
RB-2019-01.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2018, which will Hits: 4 |
RB-2015-04.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice November 2015 1 Research Brief 2015‐4 November 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal that from $7.25 to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts future minimum wage levels to offset in Ðlation. This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published Hits: 4 |
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdfThis research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The Hits: 4 |
RB 2019 RACP.pdfIn response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief which examines the potential impact of House Bill 880. The bill lowers the statutory debt limit for Redevelopment Assistance Capital Office and can be found at the following link: RACP Guidelines Page. Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 All projects must also follow requirements under the competitive bidding process, Pennsylvania Steel Hits: 4 |
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends Hits: 4 |
NGIFE-2018.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2017, which will Hits: 4 |
NGIFE-2016.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2016, which will Hits: 4 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e for calendar year (CY) 2016 (remitted in April 2017), which was a moderate decline from the prior year. This research brief (1) examines the reasons for that decline, (2) I Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfGeneral Fund balances are depleted and short-term interest rates revert to historical levels. The subsections that follow provide a brief discussion of revenue trends, the outlook for select General Fund revenue sources and highlights for smaller revenue sources. Historical data extrapolators displayed in Table 5.2 and other miscellaneous extrapolators (not shown) and then recombined at the agency level. A brief description of the extrapolation procedure for these five categories follows: Wages: Two factors are used to extrapolate wages. The first Hits: 4 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfbirth and death rates, labor force participa- tion, remote working, consumer spending patterns and employee productivity. This section provides a brief review of those changes and how they impact the state economy. Table 3.1 displays the economic forecast used for surge as home prices reflect limited supply and the extension of low interest rates. The text that follows provides a brief discussion of revenue trends and the outlook for three of the largest General Fund revenue sources. The final subsection provides Hits: 4 |
ReleasesIFO - Releases IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Releases IFO Releases More Older Pennsylvanians Working April 17, 2024 | Economics and Other This research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of Pennsylvania in General Fund revenues for March, an increase $89 million (+1.4%) compared to March 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees. Full Report Analysis of Revenue Proposals March 28 Hits: 4 |
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfas $250,000 are “inadequate to provide an incentive for the rehabilitation of large commercial buildings.” 31 The brief further notes that “the very act of imposing a cap alters the nature of the program and can produce a perverse result spillover effects: the great majority would be realized over long time horizons. The text that follows provides a brief explanation of the positive spillover effects from rehabilitation projects that have been noted by researchers. Property Values and the Halo Effect A Hits: 3 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfsection defines the key features of each policy scenario and the bag types affected. It concludes with a brief discussion of recent regulations im- posed on other single use plastic products. Policy Options and Scenarios Three policy scenarios were developed to proximity to major markets make it an attractive location for new petrochemical facilities. 65 This subsection provides a brief overview of the petrochemical industry in the state and Appalachia region generally. Natural gas and materials derived from natural gas processing (i Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdftax revenues declined at an average rate of roughly 3.1% per annum. In FY 2020-21, this trend reversed briefly when revenues increased 4.1% from the prior year. Analysts attribute that outcome to temporary layoffs and more remote working U.S. (-1.7%, first quarter only) and state (-9.4%) revenue trends. Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us. Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic Independent Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdfspecified local jurisdictions. These supplemental rebates are included in Table 1. Property Tax/Rent Rebate Expansion Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Household Income Owner Renter Total Owner Renter Total $0 to $8,000 36,515 108,681 145,196 Table 3: Expansion Impact by County Affected Claimants Total Increase ($000s) Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. Avg Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdfvarious years). FY 22-23 Gross Sales are estimated by IFO. What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 total cash value and advertised estimated jackpot) and the ratio of advertised estimated 171 million) and Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) program (includes administration, $244 million). 5 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Karen Maynard. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us. 4 Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdfirs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2020-2021. PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | May 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 31,821 1.67% 1 Montana Statistics of Income Division, SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2020-2021. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. Individuals Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdfThis research brief is the third in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal ERAP starts state moratorium ends, federal continues Source: Princeton University Eviction Lab. Emergency Rental Assistance Ends Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 In December 2020, the federal government enacted the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA), which Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdfThis research brief is the second in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal and an unknown amount of Employee Retention Credits to retain employees. Post-Pandemic Child Care Cliff Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 outpaced all private workers, the sector remains relatively low-paying. For June 2022 Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdfThis research brief provides an overview of Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate, revenue collections, consumption and average tax burden per Pennsylvania licensed driver Rates are cents per gallon (cpg). Table 1 State Gasoline Tax Rates Pennsylvania’s Gasoline Tax Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate in cpg is calculated annually by the Pennsylvania Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfThis research brief updates a prior release (September 2021) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The difference between actual (2020) or estimated (2021) residual deaths and the baseline Hits: 3 |
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfIFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The removal of these five categories yields “residual” deaths, which are due to Hits: 3 |
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdfApproved loans could not exceed $10 million and were disbursed by private lenders from April through August 2020. This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential assistance-for-small-businesses/sba-paycheck-protection- program-loan-level-data. PPP Loans to PA Businesses Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Paycheck Protection Program Loans to PA Businesses Number Share Amount Share of Average Hits: 3 |
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdfstate level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income tax paid for tax year federal income taxpayers will depend on income level, family size, filing status, homeownership status and various other factors. This research brief provides a high-level review of how tax law changes affect reported Total Income, Taxable Income, various deductions and tax Hits: 3 |
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdftime. A technical explanation of the methodology used to estimate those payments can be found at the end of this brief. The table on the next page displays estimates of royalty payments for the top eight producing counties and the rest receive prior to the drilling and extraction of natural gas. Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The potential magnitude of the understatement cannot be estimated based on available data Hits: 3 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Hits: 3 |
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Hits: 3 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdfIFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will Hits: 3 |
Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdfIFO PUBLIC BRIEFING Updated Revenue Estimates Date: Wednesday, May 26 Time: 1:00 PM R SVP Here Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and Hits: 3 |
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdfwells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2019, which will be remitted in April 2020. This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and Hits: 3 |
IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdfalso contract with other actuaries or financial consultants. In general, an IFO response to a legislative request provides (1) a brief summary of the legislation and (2) a synopsis of any analysis included in the transmission to the General Assembly. The to current law, then it is not material and a note is not required, only a letter. The IFO issues brief letters for legislation that results in de minimis (e.g., a technical correction) or not material (e.g., very small Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfresulting from the cessation of most sales of vehicles and housing in the spring. The text that follows provides a brief discussion of revenue trends and the outlook for three of the largest General Fund revenue sources. The final subsection provides 2) general fund pensions, (3) general fund debt service, (4) more details on DHS, PDE and DCJ and (5) a brief discussion of other agencies. Fiscal Year 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Hits: 3 |
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. This is an update of a research brief published by the IFO in September 2021 and incorporates the latest data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration Hits: 3 |
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdfThis research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Including these relief amounts would modestly reduce county-level tax burdens. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Adams Hits: 3 |
Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office to Release Revenue Projections and Conduct Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2015- 16 and 2016-17 on Tuesday, May 3, 2016. The office will hold a 1:30 p.m. briefing on the release in the fourteenth floor conference center of Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street. The session is open to Hits: 3 |
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdfremain eligible for plans under current law. New judges and legislators would be in- cluded under the new plans. A brief summary of the three pension design options follows. The descriptions identify the three main parameters of the plans: (1) the the plans for Pennsylvania public school and state employees are also of that variety. The text that follows provides a brief description of plan types. Defined Benefit Plans Public sector pension plans have traditionally been based on a DB design. Participants Hits: 3 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf17 Historical scholarship data prior to SY 2016-17 from “Projected Fiscal Impact of Pennsylvania Senate Bill No. 299,” EDChoice Brief (May 2019). In turn, that document cites data provided by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and clear outlier in this regard. State Comparisons | Page 20 Reports Published by Other States The text that follows provides a brief summary of reports published by states (or on behalf of state agen- cies). It does not include research published by Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfApplicants must complete reports which include the final Community Impact Measures Report by December 31. The report must include a brief description of project accomplishments, how goals/objectives were met and any success stories related to the project. The NAP Tax and 50 percent of EZP investments. Table 4.1 contains the economic impact analysis. The text that follows provides a brief description based on line number in the table. For ease of analysis, the computation assumes that all tax credits are Hits: 2 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfsubmits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The IFO initially released this analysis as a research brief in April 2021. Since that release, the IFO was notified of a new recipient (two total) of the KSDZ Tax for the share of activity that is incentivized solely by the tax credit. 19 The text that follows provides a brief description of Table 4.1 based on line number. For ease of analysis, the computation assumes that all tax credits Hits: 2 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdfInvestment in Broadband Infrastructure and Utilization Initiatives,” Strategic Net- works Group, Inc. (January 2014), “Broadband’s Impact A Brief Literature Review,” Roberto Gallardo, Brian Whitacre and Alison Grant, Purdue University Center for Regional Development (January 2018) and “Broadband’s Economic Impact Communications Commission (May 2010). “Broadband’s Economic Impact in Michigan,” Connect Michigan (March 2013). “Broadband’s Impact: A Brief Literature Review,” Gallardo, Roberto et al., Purdue University Center for Regional Development (January 2018). “Broadband Technology Opportunities Program Evaluation Study,” Order Number Hits: 2 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdfdata based on gender are not published by BLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently released a brief (January 2021) using data from the Current Population Survey that provides some insight. For January 2021, that brief found that the unemployment rate for women was 9.5% (12-month rolling average), while the unemployment rate for men Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf11.pdf . 4 For an analysis that uses the IMPLAN model to perform an economic simulation, see the IFO research brief “Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends” (June 2023). 2022.2 2022.3 2022.4 2023.1 2023.2 Sales and Use Corporate Net Income. Estimated 2022-23 Projected 2023-24 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 14 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24. Corporate Net Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdfExecutive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates, as well as an interstate comparison of corporate net this analysis is on the immediate movement to a $12.00 minimum wage, and it provides only a brief discussion for the phased-in increase to $15.00 over the six years that follow. This approach is used to keep the Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfExecutive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates, as well as an interstate comparison of CNIT rates this analysis is on the immediate movement to a $12.00 minimum wage, and it provides only a brief discussion for the phased-in increase to $15.00 over the six years that follow. This approach is used to keep the Hits: 2 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfcollege campuses. The administration implemented statewide mitigation measures in response to the pandemic and federal emergency declaration. A brief summary of the timeline is as follows: 2 March 16: Pennsylvania schools close for 10 days and bars and restaurants close Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2020-21 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 18 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf2024 will be released March 22, and those data will provide further insights into the state labor market. 1 This brief uses non-seasonally adjusted data. Because comparisons are year-over-year, the computations will largely match those using seasonally adjusted which have been difficult to estimate since 2020. 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revision Number Percent All Payroll Jobs (000s) -53.4 -0.9% Construction -5.4 Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdfCare in Pennsylvania: 2022 Child Care Market Rate Survey Final Report. Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019-23 Number Establishments 3,699 3,686 3,686 3,684 3 subsidizes the purchaser of child care services, whereas stimulus funds subsidized the supplier (i.e., employer). Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. 3 See: Shapiro Administration Announces Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdfThis research brief updates one published in January 2023 to include an additional 11 months of gasoline consumption and retail price data. More tax changes are largely reflected in the prices paid by final consumers. Gasoline Consumption Remains Subdued Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2023 Author: Lesley Rompalo Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 CreationDate: 2023-12-19 13:11:36 ModDate: 2023- Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdfthe prior term (2019 to 2023). Historically, once this contract is approved, other CBAs will contain similar provisions. This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the AFSCME ratified CBA apply to all CBAs the IFO is required to analyze, see the IFO website. Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For this preliminary estimate, the IFO utilized payroll data obtained from the state Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdfThis research brief utilizes county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax property tax burden would increase from 2.57% to 2.74%. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Monroe Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdfin the near-term, and then revert to the Federal Reserve target of 2.0% sometime in 2024. This research brief provides an update to an IFO analysis from October 2021 using recent hourly earnings and CPI data to quantify how U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data and methodology). Inflation’s Impact on Earnings and Pensions Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 High rates of inflation also impact public pensions because they are not indexed Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdfThis research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) returns filed for tax year (TY) 2019 with the Pennsylvania Department of by IFO. No Liability Total 2,500,001 or more Corporate Net Income Tax Data 2019 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The second table provides insights into the two factors that motivate the results Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdfSeptember. The moratorium began in March 2020 and will have been effective for three and one-half years. This research brief uses the latest student loan data and the IMPLAN economic model to quantify the state economic and General Fund revenue www.crfb.org/blogs/student-loan-pause-could-cost-275-billion. Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 and rates of savings, the analysis splits repayments across four income groups: under Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdfThis research brief is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal based on published data. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-02-02 20:22:41 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-02-02 20 Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdfof repayments (instead of 20 years) for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less. 1 This research brief presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact of the changes, the impact across household increase the cost of the IDR program by $450 billion or more. Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 revisions to the IDR program. 2 Over the 10-year federal budget window Hits: 2 |
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdfare posted monthly as General Fund revenue and those amounts have increased dramatically over the past 15 months. This research brief examines the cause of the historically high collections and explains why the windfall is not expected to continue over the in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million reduction. Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2023 GF Avg. Fed Funds Treasury Effective Fiscal Year Daily Bal. Target Rate Collect. Rate 2014-15 $1,908 Hits: 2 |
RB-2018-01.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 1 Research Brief 2018‐1 January 2018 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2018-02-23 19:14:51 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 15.0 (Windows) Title: SPT Research Brief V6.pub Hits: 2 |
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdfThis research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and stimulus programs and an estimated 20% increase in capital gains income. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Adams Hits: 2 |
PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdfreviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metrics follows the table. Tax Administration From 2019 through 2022, the department implemented a modernization project to Hits: 2 |
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends follows the table. State Parks Through FY 2021-22, the department managed 121 state parks Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdfreviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor for each activity are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears below the table. State Archives and Record Center In partnership with the Office of Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends follows the table. Unemployment Compensation Administration The department administers unemployment compensation (UC) benefits (Activity 1 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfcollege campuses. The administration implemented statewide mitigation measures in response to the pandemic and federal emergency declaration. A brief summary of the timeline is as follows: 2 March 16: Pennsylvania schools close for 10 days and bars and restaurants close amounts. Estimated 2019-20 Projected 2020-21 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 18 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdfU.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the consumer price index, payroll employment and income trends that motivate revenue projections. Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are by amounts. Estimated 2017-18 Projected 2018-19 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 10 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 2 |
Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020- Hits: 2 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020- Hits: 2 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020- Hits: 2 |
October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020- Hits: 2 |
NewsStand_2019_December.pdfto 2018. The IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections in late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia compares unemployment rates in metropolitan sta- tistical areas (MSAs) across the past three points across MSAs from a low of 1.3% in Ames, IA to 16.2% in El Centro, CA. The brief measures the cycli- cal sensitivity of metro area employment and finds that all of Pennsylvania’s MSAs are relatively less Hits: 2 |
Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdfU.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the consumer price index, payroll employment and income trends that motivate revenue projections. Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are by General Fund Estimate for FY 2018-19 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 10 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 2 |
IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdfsession is open to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO Public Briefing CreationDate: 2018-04-24 13:11:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 ModDate: 2022-06-01 20:10:19 Producer: Canva Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf115 million annually for debt service related to the Tobacco Settlement Bonds. The text that follows provides a brief discussion of historical revenue trends and the outlook for five of the largest General Fund revenue sources. The final subsection provides an kindergarten through grade 12 (Pre-K-12), (2) post-secondary and (3) other. The text that follows provides brief descriptions of these categories. Pre-K to Grade 12 Based on demographic trends of the school-age population, the forecast assumes that Hits: 2 |
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for direct use and line losses, which are not yet available for 2020. Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 that period. For the New England states, New York and New Jersey, prices Hits: 2 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdfFiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2021- Hits: 2 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfthe preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Dollar Amounts Growth Rates Gaming Revenue and Lottery Sales (15) Tax burden equal to ratio of total state- Hits: 2 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfthe preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Dollar Amounts Growth Rates Gaming Revenue and Lottery Sales (15) Tax burden equal to ratio of total state- Hits: 2 |
2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf2000. The report presents a general discussion of the issues involved in the provision of cost-of-living adjustments, a brief commentary on the Common- wealth’s past practices with respect to cost-of-living adjustments, and a summary of the statewide public employee retirement systems. However, there are several other issues evidenced in a review of Table II that warrant brief discussion. Absence of a Standard Design Criteria As evidenced by the variation in the design characteristics of the previous individual Hits: 2 |
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdfg., a tax credit) because the private return does not reflect the public benefits. The text that follows provides a brief explanation of the positive externalities from waterfront development projects that have been noted by research studies. For a complete list Hits: 1 |
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdfREAP Tax Credit, the IFO reviewed literature on the cost and environmental impact of these practices. This section includes a brief review of relevant reports and studies to assist in the general assessment of the effectiveness of the REAP Tax Credit Hits: 1 |
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdfis only for live music concerts, while other state programs also include theatrical productions. The text that follows provides a brief overview of each state program. Georgia offers a non-refundable tax credit equal to 15 percent of qualified in-state Hits: 1 |
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdfwell an at-home recovery period. While the procedure and recovery for bone marrow dona- tion is relatively brief (about one week), time off for organ donation is significantly longer (three to nine days in the hospital and four to eight Hits: 1 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdfincrease in economic activity. Table 4.1 contains the economic impact analysis. The text that follows provides a brief description based on line number in the table. The analysis assumes that credits are used in the same year they are awarded Hits: 1 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfImpact Models. Comparisons, in Context of EB-5 Analysis,” AKRF, INC. (May 2013). “Improving Economic Development Incentives,” Policy Brief. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Re- search (2018). “JLARC Final Report: 2015 Tax Preference Performance Reviews,” Report 15-5. Washington State Hits: 1 |
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf13 th check is provided each year to all current retired and disabled members. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of SERS employer pension contributions to General Hits: 1 |
SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdfor below the baseline for the first ten years, then reverts to the baseline. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of SERS employer pension contributions to General Hits: 1 |
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdfany amendments. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 - Slide 1 Today’s Presentation Brief overview of HB 1776 / SB 1400 of 2012. Analysis Objectives. Analysis Results: Surplus or shortfall to (1 Hits: 1 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdfgrowth in the Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) and the Employment Cost Index (ECI). See the technical detail for a brief description regarding the computation of the index. 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 Revenues Hits: 1 |
SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdfthe Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW), which accounts for half of the base index. See the technical detail for a brief description regarding the computation of the index. 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Revenues Hits: 1 |
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdffrom property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 The decline projected in February was based on a research brief that the IFO released in June 2020 on the impact of COVID-19 on local revenues. See http://www.ifo Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdffocus of this analysis is on the immediate movement to a $12.00 minimum wage, and it provides only a brief discussion for the phased-in increase to $15.00 over the six years that follow. This approach is used to Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2022-23 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Corporate Net Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfthe unrounded amounts. Estimated 2021-22 Projected 2022-23 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Corporate Net Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2021-22 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Corporate Net Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdfits official revenue estimate for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $31.0 billion for FY15-16 represents an Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdfits official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $30.54 billion for FY14-15 represents an Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdfyear reduces the overall rate of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdfits official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $28.5 billion for FY13-14 represents a Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdfgrowth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfBudget and the corresponding impact on General Fund reve- nues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates and provides interstate comparisons or a discussion of tax Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfCorporate Net Income. Estimated 2022-23 Projected 2023-24 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 14 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24. Corporate Net Hits: 1 |
Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdfFund Revenue Estimate for FY 2019-20 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 12 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 1 |
Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf2 ModDate: 2013-01-23 16:04:52 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Mid-Year Briefing Jan 2013 FINAL Hits: 1 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdftax revenues are also displayed in Table 2 but are not apportioned to senior residents. The following bullets provide a brief explanation of the data sources and results. Due to the imprecise nature of the data and estimates, ranges are used Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdfthe remainder of this decade. 1 See: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/ . More Older Pennsylvanians Working Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2024 Age Group 14-24 25-44 45-64 65+ All Employment Change Number (000s) 15.1 46.0 Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdfthe same two months in 2020 (pre-Covid pandemic). Healthcare and Government Drive PA Job Gains Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2024 Number Percent All Payroll Jobs (000s) 62.5 1.0% Administrative and Support -8.8 -3.0% Retail Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdfsurveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions. Negative Revision to PA Job Gains Expected Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2024 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2022.1 2022.2 2022.3 2022.4 2023.1 2023 Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdfpopulation is estimated by IFO. CPI-U data are for October. SNAP Policy Changes Expand Program Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2024 CreationDate: 2024-01-11 14:53:18 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024-01-11 14 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdfS. Census Bureau, 2019 and 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-01-05 16:35:07 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-01-05 16 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdfof components due to unattributed amounts. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. PA Population Contracts Since 2020 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-01-04 19:01:14 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-01-04 19 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdfrecord-state-budget-reserves-buffer- against-mounting-fiscal-threats. State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 State Rank Amount Share State Rank Amount Share Wyoming 1 $1,436 103 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf26 -41 -25 +81 +21 -23 -13 2022 Net Exports (million megawatt hours) Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 +81 +21 -48 -23 -26 -25 -13 % Export State 2018 2022 Change Share Pennsylvania 52.4 80.5 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdfBureau (jobs by age and 2020 population) and IFO (2022 population). Young Workers Leave PA Workforce Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The third set of figures shows the ratio of QWI payroll jobs to Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdfin millions (except average). 2020 includes $1.86 billion in LWA payments. Unemployment Compensation by AGI Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 CreationDate: 2022-12-20 16:23:50 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2022-12-20 16 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdflabor, which is reinforced by expansion of the income thresholds. Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 700 800 900 1000 1100 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdfirs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2019-2020. PA Residents Migrating to Southern States Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 36,655 1.99% 1 Montana Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdfS. BEA and IFO. 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2021 CreationDate: 2021-11-03 13:02:07 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2021-11-03 13 Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdfBureau of Labor Statistics (data and methodology). Table 1 Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension Benefits Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Higher rates of inflation also have important implications for public pensions. Table 2 Hits: 1 |
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdfpublishes separate indexes for health insurance and total benefits. PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2023 Pennsylvania Annual Growth Rates Philly Hourly Employ Year CPI-U Earnings Cost Index 2019 1.9% 1.4% Hits: 1 |
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf6 Pennsylvania Department of Human Services, 2023-2024 Quarterly BAF Rates. Pennsylvania’s Strained Nursing Homes Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2023 2019 2023 Growth Facilities 1 PA 695 672 -3.3% U.S. 15,471 14,993 -3.1% Hits: 1 |
RB-2017-5.pdfto three state economic metrics: (1) nominal gross domestic product (GDP), (2) personal income and (3) payroll employment. 2 A brief description of the three economic metrics is as follows: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The value of all final goods Hits: 1 |
QRR_2016Q1.pdffiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on specific General Fund revenue sources. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter and fiscal year-to-date. Corporate net income tax revenues were $28 million Hits: 1 |
QRR_2015Q4.pdffiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on specific General Fund revenue sources. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter and fiscal year-to-date. • Corporate net income revenues were $20 million below estimate Hits: 1 |
QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdfreport. For the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund revenues were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter. • Corporate net income tax revenues were $27 million below estimate due to Hits: 1 |
QRR_2015Q3.pdfthe first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund revenues were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter. • Corporate net income tax revenues were $27 million below estimate due to lower-than- Hits: 1 |
QRR_2015Q2.pdfestimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The following text provides a brief overview of the performance of the revenue estimates for the fiscal year, along with a discussion of the major revenue sources. Fiscal Hits: 1 |
QRR_2015Q1.pdfestimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The following text provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections exceeded estimate by $158 million for the Hits: 1 |
QRR_2014Q4.pdfestimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The following text provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections exceeded estimate by $58 million for the Hits: 1 |
QRR_2014Q2.pdfAdditional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The text that follows provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections were below estimate by $80 million for Hits: 1 |
QRR_2013Q4.pdfAdditional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The text that follows provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections were above estimate by $58 million for Hits: 1 |
QRR_2013Q3.pdf11 million. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The text that follows provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. 2 Table 1 General Fund Snapshot ($ millions) Third Quarter - 2013 Fiscal Year-to-Date Hits: 1 |
QRE_FY14-15.pdfand 126 of 2014) that were enacted as part of the FY 2014-15 state budget. This appendix briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions of law that affect the projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. General Fund Transfers from Various Special Hits: 1 |
Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdfvarious school employers are generally local governments, the PSERS is adequately explained elsewhere and is beyond the scope of this brief publication. -ii- Table of Contents Page General Information Public Employee Retirement Commission . . . . . . . 3 Probate, Estates and Fiduciaries Code . . . . . . . . . . 5 Postretirement Hits: 1 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdfcontribution (ADC) for the first 20 years, then revert to 100% of the ADC. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of PSERS employer pension contributions to General Hits: 1 |
PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdfcontribution (ADC) for the first 20 years, then revert to 100% of the ADC. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of PSERS employer pension contributions to General Hits: 1 |
Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdfthat have been published by the office. This letter contains updates to those tables and graphs. To provide context, a brief description follows. The original documents can be found on the IFO website. 1 Table 1 provides the most recent breakdown Hits: 1 |
PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfPBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent positions Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdfto the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes; a breakdown of agency expenditures; the number of full-time equivalent Hits: 1 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdfFund Revenue Estimate for FY 2019-20 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 12 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 1 |
NewsStand_2019_June.pdfover-year. Opioid Crisis Impacts PA Productivity and Healthcare On June 4, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a brief that examines the opioid crisis using data from the Third District, which includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-12.pdfsubject to revision. Figures are annualized rates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Pennsylvania State Data Center, “Research Brief: 2016 National and State Population Estimates Released,” December 21, 2016. United States Pennsylvania Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec- Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdfimpact from statutory changes (Acts 53, 54 and 55 of 2022) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdfstatutory changes (Acts 24, 25 and 26 of 2021) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every statutory Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdfimpact from statutory changes (Act 114-2020) enacted in conjunction with the second part of the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdfstatutory changes (Acts 33 and 34 of 2023) enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdfincludes the impact from statutory changes (Act 23-2020) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every statutory Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdfstatutory changes (Acts 13, 15, 16, 20 and 65) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted Gen- eral Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every Hits: 1 |
MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdfimpact from statutory changes (Acts 39 and 42) enacted in conjunc- tion with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provi- sions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every Hits: 1 |
MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdfand a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING CreationDate: 2018-01-17 19:36:46 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 ModDate: 2022-06-01 20:03:58 Producer: Canva Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-06.pdfFiscal Of Ðice is conducting further re‐ search into Pennsylvania GSP and plans to publish Ðindings in a new Research Brief series this year. June 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Percentage points. 2 DE and WV are Hits: 1 |
Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdfthe uncertainty regarding those additional federal funds. Please refer to the note at the front of the report for a brief description of the changes. Author: mryan CreationDate: 2013-05-13 19:09:26 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2 Hits: 1 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2021-22 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Corporate Net Hits: 1 |
Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdfThis analysis describes the event, the amount and form of state support provided, and evaluates the state economic impact. A brief description of the motivation and methodology used for this analysis can be found at the end of this report. Event Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdfCommittee March 29, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning Chairs and members of the committees. For my brief remarks, I will provide comments on the most recent assumptions used by the consultant to model the potential impact on Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdftoday. To provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdfof the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on the filing method known as combined reporting. For my brief remarks, I will review the figure and three tables that are attached. Under mandatory combined reporting, multi-state firms that Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfand issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past year, and all Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfpublic employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely Hits: 1 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfpublic employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely Hits: 1 |
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdfComplex. Compensation is based on education, skills and experience. A comprehensive benefits package is included. Interested applicants should submit a brief cover letter and resume by email to Charlene Raves (craves@ifo.state.pa.us). Please type the word 'Application' in Hits: 1 |
IFO_ Job_Posting_Jan_2022.pdfsubject line. Qualified applicants will be asked to come into the office for an in-person interview and complete a brief written assessment that demonstrates critical thinking and writing skills. For more information about the office, see http://www.ifo.state Hits: 1 |
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdfBoscola and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify. For my remarks, I will provide some brief comments on combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the Hits: 1 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfphase-out must also be incorporated as a technical adjustment. All significant technical adjustments are noted in the text. A brief summary that describes the basic methodology used to derive revenue projections may be found in the Appendix. Unless stated otherwise Hits: 1 |
House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdfJune 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning committee members. For my testimony, I will note some brief highlights from the tables and graphs that appear below. Philadelphia CPI-U The latest data for the Philadelphia CPI-U Hits: 1 |
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdfhighest rate of marijuana-related ED visits from 2015 to 2018 (16.7 per 1,000 ED visits). A 2020 brief by the federal-state Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project found that the national average cost per ED visit was $530 Hits: 1 |
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdftable. Representative Brown requested property tax burden by county. This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing Hits: 1 |
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdfthis budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY Hits: 1 |
GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office (IFO). Who we are. What we do. Official Revenue Estimate. Other analyses. Brief Economic Update. What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept IFO combines Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfchanges to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdfexpectations (+$580 million) for the first four months of the fiscal year. The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate revisions to the estimate by major revenue source for FY 2020-21. Corporate Net Income The Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfissuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year, and Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf15, 2023 at 1:30 PM Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years Hits: 1 |
Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf15, 2022 at 1:30 PM Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years Hits: 1 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdfLotto -2.9% -9.4% 9.3% -7.6% Note: millions of dollars. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Slots and table games revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Table Hits: 1 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfout by age group. Deaths were higher in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the research brief COVID- 19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths, the IFO calculated the excess deaths for 2020 and 2021. 2 Slightly over 75% Hits: 1 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdfand net migration rates for Pennsylvania residents. The treatment of COVID-19, the recent worldwide pandemic, is also briefly discussed on the next page. Births The projection for births is based on a two-year average birth rate from 2017 to Hits: 1 |
April_1_Revenue_Update.pdfstate.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 1, 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a brief update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through March, revenues are running Hits: 1 |
Announcement_2021.pdf15, 2021 at 1:30PM RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. Why have workers departed the state labor force? How long will inflation remain elevated? Does Hits: 1 |
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfan impact on Gross State Product, but the magnitude is unclear since those data are not currently available. 1 See “Briefing: Results of the 2013 NIPA Comprehen- sive Revisions” at http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/ 2013briefingslides%20for%20web.pdf. Source: U.S Hits: 1 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfadministrative agreement with the Governor’s Office of Administration, under which the PEBTF functions as a third party administrator. (A brief description of the PEBTF is provided in Appendix VI). The arrangement for that program requires that the PEBTF invoice the Hits: 1 |
2002_dbdc_report.pdfpresents, as background, a discussion of the nature of defined benefit pension plans and defined contribution pension plans and a brief description of the Commonwealth’s current state-wide defined benefit pension plans. The report also provides responses to the seven Hits: 1 |