Search Results

Your search for brief returned 383 results.
Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

Tags: brief, care, child, research

Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly Wages

This research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour.

Tags: brief, minimum, research, wage

Gasoline Consumption Remains Subdued

The IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers.

Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research

Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic

This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19.

Tags: brief, cigarette, research, tax

PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker.

Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, research

Pennsylvania's Strained Nursing Homes

The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019.

Tags: brief, homes, nursing, research

Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues

Treasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term.

Tags: brief, research, treasury

Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts

This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers.

Tags: brief, budget, contracts, impact, research, wage

Inflation's Impact on Earnings and Pensions

This research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant.

Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, pensions, research

Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019

This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code.

Tags: brief, cnit, research

What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?

The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports.

Tags: brief, lottery, research

Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends

As part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million.

Tags: brief, loan, research, student

PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion.

Tags: brief, migration, research

Emergency Rental Assistance Ends

The IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state.

Tags: assistance, brief, rental, research

Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption

The IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects.

Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research

Unemployment Compensation by AGI

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds.

Tags: brief, compensation, research, unemployment

Young Workers Leave PA Workforce

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate.

Tags: brief, reduction, research, worker

Where Did the Workers Go?

This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report.

The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.

 

Tags: brief, demographics, labor, research

Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?

A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.

Tags: brief, research, snap

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

Tags: brief, debt, loan, student

County Income Patterns

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

Tags: brief, county, incomes, research

Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax

The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285.

Tags: brief, gasoline, research, tax

Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding Option

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

Tags: brief, pension, research

PA Residents Migrating to Southern States

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older.

Tags: brief, migration, research

Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

Tags: brief, loans, research, student

Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

Tags: brief, county, incomes, research

Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus

Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

Tags: brief, county, incomes, research

iGaming Drives Property Tax Relief to New High

This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine the recent increase in Act 1 property tax relief due to gaming expansion.

10/02/2024

Who Pays Pennsylvania Gaming Taxes?

This research brief is the second in a series that uses a new distribution model to examine the progressivity/regressivity of state-local taxes. This release examines state and local gaming taxes and funds retained by the Lottery after prize payouts.

09/25/2024

iGaming Revenues Surge, Others Stagnate

This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018-19 through FY 2023-24 and the first two months of FY 2024-25.

09/23/2024

County Income Patterns 2019 to 2022

This annual research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and rankings of county demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth, shares of transfer income and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

09/09/2024

2022 Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens on homeowners and renters across the state for 2022. The brief was updated on September 6, 2024 to address a technical correction. 

08/21/2024

General Fund Surplus Likely Depleted Next Year

This research brief uses the recently passed state budget for FY 24-25 to update deficit estimates for the current and subsequent fiscal year.

07/18/2024

Corporate Rate Reduction and Higher NOL Cap

This research brief examines two recent provisions that reduce corporate net income tax liability: a lower tax rate and a higher net operating loss (NOL) deduction threshold. The provisions significantly reduce corporate tax liability and will be phased-in through tax year 2031.

07/17/2024

Sources of Pennsylvania Income

This research brief is the first in a series that describes a new distribution model that will be used to examine the progressivity/regressivity of state-local taxes.

06/27/2024

Revenues and Spending Surge During Pandemic

This research brief looks at the drivers of revenue and spending growth during the pandemic.

06/25/2024

Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues - Update

Treasury collections have generated a short-term revenue windfall. This research brief updates a prior analysis and provides preliminary Treasury revenue estimates for FY 2024-25.

05/02/2024

April 2024 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $5.69 billion in General Fund revenues for April, an increase of $30 million (+0.5%) compared to April 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.

05/01/2024

More Older Pennsylvanians Working

This research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of Pennsylvania payroll workers. Compared to data prior to COVID-19, there has been a large absolute (number) and relative (growth) increase in older workers.

04/17/2024

March 2024 Revenue Update

The Commonwealth collected $6.28 billion in General Fund revenues for March, an increase $89 million (+1.4%) compared to March 2023. The IFO transmitted a brief revenue update to the chairs of the Senate and House Appropriations Committees.      

04/01/2024

Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted

This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP).   

03/21/2024

2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400

This research brief provides detail on the latest benchmark revision made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to Pennsylvania payroll jobs.

03/13/2024

Negative Revision to PA Job Gains Expected

This research brief examines the implications of a recent QCEW data release for state payroll jobs data.

02/29/2024

Economic Forum

Director Knittel made a brief presentation at the NFIB Economic Forum.

02/05/2024

Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly Wages

This research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour.

01/24/2024

SNAP Policy Changes Expand Program

This research brief uses the latest data from the US Dept of Agriculture to examine post-pandemic SNAP trends. Since November 2019, policy and definition changes have increased the number of recipients by 16% and the average monthly benefit by 52%.

01/03/2024

Gasoline Consumption Remains Subdued

The IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers.

12/19/2023

Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic

This research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19.

12/11/2023

PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker.

11/30/2023

Pennsylvania's Strained Nursing Homes

The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019.

10/25/2023

Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues

Treasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term.

09/25/2023

Economic Update

Director Knittel made a brief presentation to an economic summit hosted by the York County Delegation of the General Assembly.

09/14/2023

County Income Patterns 2018-2021

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

08/24/2023

Property Tax Burden By County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 

08/22/2023

Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts

This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers.

08/14/2023

Property Tax/Rent Rebate Expansion

This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county.

08/09/2023

Inflation's Impact on Earnings and Pensions

This research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant.

07/31/2023

Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019

This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code.

07/25/2023

Presentation on Combined Reporting

Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Finance Committee on combined reporting.

06/29/2023

What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?

The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports.

06/13/2023

PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion.

05/03/2023

Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP

The IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout.

04/06/2023

State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances

The IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets.

03/24/2023

Emergency Rental Assistance Ends

The IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state.

03/06/2023

Pennsylvania Electricity Update

The IFO posted a research brief that provides an overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. For 2022, PA remains the top exporter of electricity across all states. The next largest state (AL) exported 40% less electricity.

03/01/2023

Post-Pandemic Child Care Cliff

The IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future.

02/23/2023

SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February

The IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child.

01/27/2023

Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption

The IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects.

01/05/2023

PA Population Contracts Since 2020

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states.

01/04/2023

Unemployment Compensation by AGI

The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds.

12/21/2022

Tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 

12/15/2022

Young Workers Leave PA Workforce

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate.

12/08/2022

Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2022-23 to 2027-28. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of each presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

11/02/2022

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI

Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study.

10/26/2022

Where Did the Workers Go?

This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.  

10/25/2022

Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?

A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.

09/29/2022

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 

09/06/2022

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.

08/31/2022

County Income Patterns

This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth.

08/16/2022

Pennsylvania's Gasoline Tax

The IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285.

06/13/2022

Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding Option

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021.

06/09/2022

Inflation's Impact on the Pennsylvania Economy

On June 8, Director Matthew Knittel will make a brief presentation to the House Majority Policy Committee on the impact of inflation on the state economy and budget.

06/07/2022

PA Residents Migrating to Southern States

The IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older.

06/02/2022

Assumptions Used by RGGI Model

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony on the model assumptions used by a consultant to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania from joining RGGI. This written testimony was updated on November 4, 2022, to include clarifications for the third and sixth bullets on page 1.

03/28/2022

Pennsylvania Electricity Update

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. 

03/14/2022

Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?

The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates.

03/08/2022

Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

11/29/2021

Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2021-22 to 2026-27. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

11/04/2021

PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth

Using the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation.  

11/03/2021

Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension Benefits

The IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits.

10/19/2021

COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths

This research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021.

09/30/2021

Public Pension Status and Outlook

The IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in Pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant.

09/28/2021

Pennsylvania Electricity Update

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 

09/09/2021

Property Tax Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation on property taxes to the House Majority Policy Committee.

08/30/2021

Property Tax Burden by County

This research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 

08/25/2021

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

08/10/2021

Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update for the PACP Chamber Day.

06/17/2021

Economic Impact of Federal Stimulus

This research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage.

05/10/2021

Impact of COVID-19 on the State Economy

Director Matthew Knittel gave a brief presentation to the Senate Majority Policy Committee on the impact of COVID-19 on the state economy.

04/13/2021

Testimony on Minimum Wage

Director Matt Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Commerce Committee on the proposal to raise the minimum wage. The hearing was originally scheduled for February 16, 2021 but was rescheduled to March 11, 2021.

03/11/2021

January 2021 Economic and Budget Outlook

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.

01/11/2021

PPP Loans to Pennsylvania Businesses

This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications.

12/08/2020

IFO Public briefing: October 2020 Revenue and Economic Update

The IFO will present a revenue and economic update for FY 2020-21 on October 29 at 10 am. The update will be based on revenues received for the first four months of the fiscal year and the latest state economic data. See the announcement for a link to register for the presentation.

10/23/2020

Pennsylvania Economic Development Incentives

This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization.

10/15/2020

Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania Taxpayers

This research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion.  This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately.  

10/13/2020

August 2020 Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel provided a brief economic and revenue update to members of the Senate Appropriations Committee (Democrat).

08/19/2020

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

06/10/2020

IFO Public briefing: Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2020-21

The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will also be posted to the IFO website when the presentation concludes. Click on the link for details on how to register.  

05/19/2020

Property Tax by County and Income

This research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age.

04/07/2020

Property Tax Update Presentation

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Pennsylvania School Boards Association on property tax data recently published by the IFO.

03/13/2020

Testimony on Combined Reporting

Director Matthew Knittel provided brief testimony to the Senate Democratic Policy Committee regarding the potential impact of combined reporting on corporate net income tax revenues.

01/29/2020

2019 Impact Fee Estimate

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2019 Impact Fee collections. Collections are estimated to be $198.2 million, a decrease of $53.6 million from the prior year.

01/09/2020

Presentation to Grow PA Coalition

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Grow PA Coalition on the Pennsylvania Demographic and Economic Outlook.

12/02/2019

Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration.

10/31/2019

Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017

This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices.

09/20/2019

County Income Patterns

This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth.

08/30/2019

Economic and Revenue Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the Harrisburg Trade Association Executives on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.

05/16/2019

Senate Majority Policy Committee Public Workshop Migration Data Request

In response to a legislative request, the IFO provided data to the Senate Majority Policy Committee for use in their Public Workshop on “Student Flight (Brain Drain) from Pennsylvania” on April 30, 2019.  The brief document details historical population data for the Commonwealth, focusing primarily on young adults migrating to and from Pennsylvania.

04/29/2019

Revenue and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on April 17, 2019 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.

04/17/2019

2018 IMPACT FEE ESTIMATE - JANUARY 2019

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2018 Impact Fee collections.

01/24/2019

Revenue and Economic Update

Director Matthew Knittel made a brief presentation to the House Financial Rescue Caucus on October 9, 2018 on recent revenue and economic trends for the U.S. and Pennsylvania.  

10/09/2018

Initial Revenue Estimate FY 2018-19

The initial revenue estimate for FY 2018-19 and updated estimates for FY 2017-18. Press Release Presentation

05/01/2018

Budget Hearings Packet for Appropriations Committees

The Independent Fiscal Office submitted material to the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled budget hearings on Tuesday, February 20.  The hearings packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2017. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas. Testimony Supplemental Table

02/16/2018

Mid-Year Update FY 2017-18

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has released a mid-year update of its revenue estimate for fiscal year (FY) 2017-18. The revised estimate is $34.780 billion, which is $35 million higher than the IFO’s November 2017 estimate. As part of the mid-year update, the IFO also provides an advance look at revenue projections for the next fiscal year. For FY 2018-19, revenues are projected to be $33.914 billion, a decrease of -2.5 percent over the current year. The presentation also addresses the impact of recent federal tax law changes on the Pennsylvania budget. The changes affect estimates for corporate net income, personal income and sales tax revenues in FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. The office will update the estimate in its next round of revenue projections to be released in early May. Press Release

01/29/2018

2017 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2018

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018.

01/19/2018

School District Property Tax Forecast

This research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property.  Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23.

01/18/2018

Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook

This research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 

07/04/2017

Budget Hearing Packet for Appropriations Committees

The IFO has compiled information for the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in advance of its scheduled testimony on Tuesday, February 21.  The hearing packet contains a brief background on the Independent Fiscal Office and its responsibilities, along with a list of the reports and analyses published since January 2016. It also provides data regarding the economic and revenue outlook, demographics, pensions, and natural gas.    Download a version for optimized web viewing

02/16/2017

Pennsylvania Gaming Trends

This research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16.

02/13/2017

2016 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2017

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2016 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania.

01/02/2017

Impact Fee Update and 2016 Outlook

This research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 

07/14/2016

Economic Development Incentives

This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15.  

03/25/2016

Impact Fee Update - February 2016

This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 

02/29/2016

Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania

This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation.

11/30/2015

Impact Fee Update and 2015 Outlook

This research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

06/25/2015

Pennsylvania Gaming Trends

This research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in Pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states. 

02/28/2015

Impact Fee Update - February 2015

This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year.

02/27/2015

State Economic Comparison

This research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in Pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade.

09/30/2014

Natural Gas Extraction: An Interstate Tax Comparison

This report compares Pennsylvania's unique natural gas tax structure to other states. The report also considers other taxes that may be levied on natural gas producers such as real and personal property, corporate and personal income, sales and use and miscellaneous fees. Due to the complexity of the analysis, readers are encouraged to thoroughly review the methodology and assumptions contained in Section 1 of this report. Full report Analysis-in-brief (2 pages) Background on effective tax rates (2 pages, updated 4/4/2014 for the 2013 reporting year impact fee collections)

03/17/2014

Analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older

Letter providing an analysis of school property taxes paid by homeowners age 70 and older (October 2013). The analysis presents a preliminary assessment of data on the cost of a school property tax freeze for those homeowners and a brief discussion of factors that affect the cost of a freeze over the long-term.

10/29/2013

index.cfm

School Business Officials. ... (Full Report) iGaming Drives Property Tax Relief to New High Property Tax October 02, 2024 This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine the recent increase in Act 6%) compared to September 2023. ... (Full Report) Who Pays Pennsylvania Gaming Taxes? Economics and Other September 25, 2024 This research brief is the second in a series that uses a new distribution model to examine the progressivity/regressivity of state-local

Hits: 69

2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf

special report contains a summary description of PSERS and SERS, a general discussion on the topic of divestment, including a brief history of divestment within the context of “socially responsible investing,” provides a description of the current situation with respect to and effective tool of a global economic boycott. Even then, the impact is questionable according to a newly published research brief by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College. The paper, which surveys prior academic studies, concludes that “the

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RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents of the federal monies disbursed directly to state residents since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and provides a brief discussion of the following provisions: ▪ Economic Impact Payments (EIPs), commonly referred to as stimulus checks. ▪ Expanded unemployment compensation (UC) programs

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2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdf

Jeffrey Clay, Executive Director of the Public School Employees’ Retirement System (PSERS). Thank you for the opportunity today to provide brief comments about the pension issue and also for your sponsorship of these hearings. As previous speakers at these hearings have allowed. Pending Developments As of November 12, 2012, the Arizona Court of Appeals docketed an appeal with opening briefs due on December 24, 2012. The State plans to ask for the appeal to be transferred to the Arizona Supreme Court. _________________________________________________________________________________ Hall

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdf

and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year, and Data (2015) 17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18 Historical Spot Prices 19 Impact Fee Research Brief 20 PSERS and SERS Trends Employer Contribution Rates 22 Decomposition of Employer Rates 23 Change in Employer Contributions 24 Funded

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Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdf

Appropriations Committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify before you today. For my opening remarks, I would like to briefly discuss the outlook for the Pennsylvania economy, General Fund revenues and the long‐ term budget outlook. 2016 Economic Outlook Recent Energy Information Administration and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. New Pipeline Capacity (15) Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐

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RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdf

This research brief updates an original release in July 2022 (updated August 2022) to include data for more recent months and new demographics but also because many workers have left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the current excess demand for labor, the magnitude of the state labor force contraction and the impact of near-

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RB-2016-02.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice March 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐2 March 2016 Economic Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e.g on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources and is not readily available. This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives

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NGIFE-2015.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential scenarios

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Releases

School Business Officials. Full Report iGaming Drives Property Tax Relief to New High October 02, 2024 | Property Tax This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine the recent increase in Act 6%) compared to September 2023. Full Report Who Pays Pennsylvania Gaming Taxes? September 25, 2024 | Economics and Other This research brief is the second in a series that uses a new distribution model to examine the progressivity/regressivity of state-local

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RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdf

This research brief is the fourth in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal government and varies by state based on average per capita income. The three types of FMAP rates discussed in this brief are: (1) traditional, (2) newly eligible and (3) CHIP. For Pennsylvania, the current traditional rate is roughly 53% and applies

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RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdf

This research brief updates an original release in July 2022 to show data for two more recent months (job openings, jobs, unemployment rates demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force since

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RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and then combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends and levels from

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RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief in response to a request made during testimony before the House State Government Subcommittee on Public Pensions, Benefits and Risk Management (August 2021). The subcommittee requested that the IFO examine the financial impact from Act 105 of 2019. This research brief uses data from the affected entities to assess the immediate and long- term financial implications from that legislation. Overview of

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RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide an update on the status of public pension funds in the Commonwealth. The text that follows uses the pa.gov/Pages/Public-School-Employees-Retirement-System_details.aspx?newsid=166. Public Pension Status and Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Table 2 uses data from various IFO, SERS and PSERS reports to project

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RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends

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RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends, and then combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends from 2018 to

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RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdf

In response to a request from the General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes and is believed to be nominal and omitted from this analysis. COVID-19 Impact on Local Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2  For 2020 Q2, it is known that the PIT withholding growth rate

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Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf

caused 38,650 “excess deaths,” and the great majority (nearly 90%) impacted residents age 65 or older. See IFO Research Brief COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths (February 2022). 5 See IFO Research Brief Where Did the Workers Go? (Update) (October 2022). Number of Residents (000s) Change (000s) 2022 2019 2022 2025 19-22

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County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdf

This research brief utilizes data from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) dataset group (Chester, Montgomery and Delaware) border each other in the southeast region of the state. 1 All data in this brief are based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 ACS 1-year PUMS dataset with adjustments made by the

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TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdf

and awards, R&D spending and employment in sectors that are R&D intensive. Section 4 contains a brief literature review, a discussion of the factors that affect the economic return of the tax credit, and an economic impact analysis. Section of reports and data sources used for this review can be found in the Appendix, along with a brief summary of the recent Grand Jury report related to fraudulent R&D tax credit activity and agency responses. If submitted, written comments

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Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdf

This research brief presents Pennsylvania tax credit and other incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The brief separates incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The amount

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SUT Exemption for Aircraft - January 2013.pdf

in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest regions. Part Three describes the industries included in this analysis and briefly discusses the status of the aircraft industry in Pennsylvania over the past decade. Part Four derives the static revenue impact from an provide a meaningful incentive for consumers to reduce or eliminate tax liability. The text that follows provides a brief description of exemptions recently enacted in nearby states. Table 1 and the maps on the subsequent pages provide an overview of the

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RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdf

or those attempting to enter the labor market. To examine how a higher minimum wage might impact workers, this research brief uses the latest data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). These state- the statewide average wage paid for these lower-wage workers. Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly Wages Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2024 State Cashiers Sales Cashiers Sales New York $13.20 $13.74 $13.95 $0.54 $0.75 New

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RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdf

demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force since depicted as the number of unemployed to job openings but for ease of presentation, the ratio is reversed in this brief. 3 Data are seasonally adjusted. For Pennsylvania, the April 2022 data are preliminary. On July 6, BLS released U.S

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RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdf

force participation rates. However, the labor force participation rate includes self- employed individuals (the employment-population ratio used for this brief does not) and is a broader measure. The employment-population ratio used for this brief also counts number of jobs, as opposed to individuals. If an individual worked two jobs in 2019 but only one

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RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The brief divides economic development incentives into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs

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RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends

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RB-2019-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2018, which will

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RB-2015-04.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice November 2015 1 Research Brief 2015‐4 November 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal that from $7.25 to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts future minimum wage levels to offset in Ðlation. This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey published

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RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdf

This research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic development into four categories: tax credits, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The

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RB 2019 RACP.pdf

In response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief which examines the potential impact of House Bill 880. The bill lowers the statutory debt limit for Redevelopment Assistance Capital Office and can be found at the following link: RACP Guidelines Page. Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 All projects must also follow requirements under the competitive bidding process, Pennsylvania Steel

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RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdf

Introduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic trends, then presents income trends and finally combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends

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NGIFE-2018.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2017, which will

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NGIFE-2016.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2016, which will

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Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e for calendar year (CY) 2016 (remitted in April 2017), which was a moderate decline from the prior year. This research brief (1) examines the reasons for that decline, (2) I Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2013 2014 2015 2016

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Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdf

General Fund balances are depleted and short-term interest rates revert to historical levels. The subsections that follow provide a brief discussion of revenue trends, the outlook for select General Fund revenue sources and highlights for smaller revenue sources. Historical data extrapolators displayed in Table 5.2 and other miscellaneous extrapolators (not shown) and then recombined at the agency level. A brief description of the extrapolation procedure for these five categories follows: Wages: Two factors are used to extrapolate wages. The first

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Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdf

birth and death rates, labor force participa- tion, remote working, consumer spending patterns and employee productivity. This section provides a brief review of those changes and how they impact the state economy. Table 3.1 displays the economic forecast used for surge as home prices reflect limited supply and the extension of low interest rates. The text that follows provides a brief discussion of revenue trends and the outlook for three of the largest General Fund revenue sources. The final subsection provides

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TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

as $250,000 are “inadequate to provide an incentive for the rehabilitation of large commercial buildings.” 31 The brief further notes that “the very act of imposing a cap alters the nature of the program and can produce a perverse result spillover effects: the great majority would be realized over long time horizons. The text that follows provides a brief explanation of the positive spillover effects from rehabilitation projects that have been noted by researchers. Property Values and the Halo Effect A

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Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdf

section defines the key features of each policy scenario and the bag types affected. It concludes with a brief discussion of recent regulations im- posed on other single use plastic products. Policy Options and Scenarios Three policy scenarios were developed to proximity to major markets make it an attractive location for new petrochemical facilities. 65 This subsection provides a brief overview of the petrochemical industry in the state and Appalachia region generally. Natural gas and materials derived from natural gas processing (i

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RB_2024_09_Who_Pays_Gaming_Taxes.pdf

This research brief allocates gaming taxes and funds retained by the Lottery across six income groups. This is the second brief in a series that examines the progressivity/regressivity of state and local taxes. Complete results for all state and local

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RB_2024_09_County_Income_Patterns.pdf

This research brief contains six maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and income trends and then combines the two metrics to analyze per capita income trends from 2019 to

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RB_2024_06_Sources_PA_Income.pdf

This research brief is the first in a series that describes a model the IFO will use to evaluate the distribution of state- age groups and homeownership status. The model will provide insights into the progressivity or regressivity of state-local taxes. This brief describes the amount and types of income received by state residents. Data sources are noted on the next page. Cash

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RB_2024_05_Treasury.pdf

This research brief updates a prior release (September 2023) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that highlighted the recent General Fund windfall generated percentage point drop in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million revenue reduction. Staff Contact This research brief was produced by Joe Shockey. Questions can be directed to jshockey@ifo.state.pa.us. Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues - Update

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RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdf

tax revenues declined at an average rate of roughly 3.1% per annum. In FY 2020-21, this trend reversed briefly when revenues increased 4.1% from the prior year. Analysts attribute that outcome to temporary layoffs and more remote working U.S. (-1.7%, first quarter only) and state (-9.4%) revenue trends. Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us. Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic Independent

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RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdf

specified local jurisdictions. These supplemental rebates are included in Table 1. Property Tax/Rent Rebate Expansion Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Household Income Owner Renter Total Owner Renter Total $0 to $8,000 36,515 108,681 145,196 Table 3: Expansion Impact by County Affected Claimants Total Increase ($000s) Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us. Avg

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RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdf

various years). FY 22-23 Gross Sales are estimated by IFO. What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 total cash value and advertised estimated jackpot) and the ratio of advertised estimated 171 million) and  Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) program (includes administration, $244 million). 5 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Karen Maynard. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us. 4

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RB_2023_05_Migration.pdf

irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2020-2021. PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | May 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 31,821 1.67% 1 Montana Statistics of Income Division, SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2020-2021. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. Individuals

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RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdf

This research brief is the third in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal ERAP starts state moratorium ends, federal continues Source: Princeton University Eviction Lab. Emergency Rental Assistance Ends Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 In December 2020, the federal government enacted the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA), which

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RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdf

This research brief is the second in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal and an unknown amount of Employee Retention Credits to retain employees. Post-Pandemic Child Care Cliff Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 outpaced all private workers, the sector remains relatively low-paying. For June 2022

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RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdf

This research brief provides an overview of Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate, revenue collections, consumption and average tax burden per Pennsylvania licensed driver Rates are cents per gallon (cpg). Table 1 State Gasoline Tax Rates Pennsylvania’s Gasoline Tax Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate in cpg is calculated annually by the Pennsylvania

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RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

This research brief updates a prior release (September 2021) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The difference between actual (2020) or estimated (2021) residual deaths and the baseline

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RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdf

IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The removal of these five categories yields “residual” deaths, which are due to

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RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf

Approved loans could not exceed $10 million and were disbursed by private lenders from April through August 2020. This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential assistance-for-small-businesses/sba-paycheck-protection- program-loan-level-data. PPP Loans to PA Businesses Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Paycheck Protection Program Loans to PA Businesses Number Share Amount Share of Average

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RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdf

state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income tax paid for tax year federal income taxpayers will depend on income level, family size, filing status, homeownership status and various other factors. This research brief provides a high-level review of how tax law changes affect reported Total Income, Taxable Income, various deductions and tax

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RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdf

time. A technical explanation of the methodology used to estimate those payments can be found at the end of this brief. The table on the next page displays estimates of royalty payments for the top eight producing counties and the rest receive prior to the drilling and extraction of natural gas. Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The potential magnitude of the understatement cannot be estimated based on available data

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PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

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PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

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Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Annoucement_May_2020.pdf

IFO Public Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2019-20 and an initial revenue estimate for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will

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Initial_Estimate_Announcement_May_2021.pdf

IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING Updated Revenue Estimates Date: Wednesday, May 26 Time: 1:00 PM R SVP Here Please register at the link above to receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate for FY 2020-21 and

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Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdf

wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2019, which will be remitted in April 2020. This brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and

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IFO_Pension_Analysis_Policies_(January_1_2024).pdf

also contract with other actuaries or financial consultants. In general, an IFO response to a legislative request provides (1) a brief summary of the legislation and (2) a synopsis of any analysis included in the transmission to the General Assembly. The to current law, then it is not material and a note is not required, only a letter. The IFO issues brief letters for legislation that results in de minimis (e.g., a technical correction) or not material (e.g., very small

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Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdf

resulting from the cessation of most sales of vehicles and housing in the spring. The text that follows provides a brief discussion of revenue trends and the outlook for three of the largest General Fund revenue sources. The final subsection provides 2) general fund pensions, (3) general fund debt service, (4) more details on DHS, PDE and DCJ and (5) a brief discussion of other agencies. Fiscal Year 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26

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Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. This is an update of a research brief published by the IFO in September 2021 and incorporates the latest data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration

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County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdf

This research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Including these relief amounts would modestly reduce county-level tax burdens. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Adams

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Briefing_Info_May_3_2016.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office Independent Fiscal Office to Release Revenue Projections and Conduct Briefing The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) will release updated revenue forecasts for fiscal years 2015- 16 and 2016-17 on Tuesday, May 3, 2016. The office will hold a 1:30 p.m. briefing on the release in the fourteenth floor conference center of Harrisburg University, 326 Market Street. The session is open to

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ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdf

remain eligible for plans under current law. New judges and legislators would be in- cluded under the new plans. A brief summary of the three pension design options follows. The descriptions identify the three main parameters of the plans: (1) the the plans for Pennsylvania public school and state employees are also of that variety. The text that follows provides a brief description of plan types. Defined Benefit Plans Public sector pension plans have traditionally been based on a DB design. Participants

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TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdf

17 Historical scholarship data prior to SY 2016-17 from “Projected Fiscal Impact of Pennsylvania Senate Bill No. 299,” EDChoice Brief (May 2019). In turn, that document cites data provided by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and clear outlier in this regard. State Comparisons | Page 20 Reports Published by Other States The text that follows provides a brief summary of reports published by states (or on behalf of state agen- cies). It does not include research published by

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TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdf

Applicants must complete reports which include the final Community Impact Measures Report by December 31. The report must include a brief description of project accomplishments, how goals/objectives were met and any success stories related to the project. The NAP Tax and 50 percent of EZP investments. Table 4.1 contains the economic impact analysis. The text that follows provides a brief description based on line number in the table. For ease of analysis, the computation assumes that all tax credits are

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TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdf

submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The IFO initially released this analysis as a research brief in April 2021. Since that release, the IFO was notified of a new recipient (two total) of the KSDZ Tax for the share of activity that is incentivized solely by the tax credit. 19 The text that follows provides a brief description of Table 4.1 based on line number. For ease of analysis, the computation assumes that all tax credits

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TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdf

Investment in Broadband Infrastructure and Utilization Initiatives,” Strategic Net- works Group, Inc. (January 2014), “Broadband’s Impact A Brief Literature Review,” Roberto Gallardo, Brian Whitacre and Alison Grant, Purdue University Center for Regional Development (January 2018) and “Broadband’s Economic Impact Communications Commission (May 2010). “Broadband’s Economic Impact in Michigan,” Connect Michigan (March 2013). “Broadband’s Impact: A Brief Literature Review,” Gallardo, Roberto et al., Purdue University Center for Regional Development (January 2018). “Broadband Technology Opportunities Program Evaluation Study,” Order Number

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Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2021.pdf

data based on gender are not published by BLS, but the Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry recently released a brief (January 2021) using data from the Current Population Survey that provides some insight. For January 2021, that brief found that the unemployment rate for women was 9.5% (12-month rolling average), while the unemployment rate for men

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Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdf

11.pdf . 4 For an analysis that uses the IMPLAN model to perform an economic simulation, see the IFO research brief “Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends” (June 2023). 2022.2 2022.3 2022.4 2023.1 2023.2 Sales and Use Corporate Net Income. Estimated 2022-23 Projected 2023-24 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 14 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24. Corporate Net

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdf

Executive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates, as well as an interstate comparison of corporate net this analysis is on the immediate movement to a $12.00 minimum wage, and it provides only a brief discussion for the phased-in increase to $15.00 over the six years that follow. This approach is used to keep the

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdf

Executive Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund revenues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates, as well as an interstate comparison of CNIT rates this analysis is on the immediate movement to a $12.00 minimum wage, and it provides only a brief discussion for the phased-in increase to $15.00 over the six years that follow. This approach is used to keep the

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Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdf

college campuses. The administration implemented statewide mitigation measures in response to the pandemic and federal emergency declaration. A brief summary of the timeline is as follows: 2  March 16: Pennsylvania schools close for 10 days and bars and restaurants close Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2020-21 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 18 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Corporate Net Income The

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RB_2024_09_Gaming.pdf

This research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board to examine trends for Pennsylvania gaming revenues from fiscal year (FY) 2018- and 20-21 impacted by partial year casino closures or restrictions. iGaming Revenues Surge, Others Stagnate Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 iGaming revenues have surged since their debut in FY 2019-20. Online platforms

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RB_2024_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf

This research brief utilizes (1) county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and (2 counties comprised 1.0% of total homeowner-renter property taxes. 2022 Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Monroe

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RB_2024_05_ACP.pdf

beneficiaries will be impacted as internet service bills could increase by up to $360 per annum. Staff Contact This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. 1 See: FCC Launches Affordable See: ACP Enrollment and Claims Tracker - Universal Service Administrative Company (usac.org). Affordable Connectivity Program Ends Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | May 2024 Affordable Connectivity Program 2022 Data 2023 Data Number Dollar Number Dollar Pennsylvania 391 $151 610 $241 Philadelphia 105

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RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdf

2024 will be released March 22, and those data will provide further insights into the state labor market. 1 This brief uses non-seasonally adjusted data. Because comparisons are year-over-year, the computations will largely match those using seasonally adjusted which have been difficult to estimate since 2020. 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revision Number Percent All Payroll Jobs (000s) -53.4 -0.9% Construction -5.4

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RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdf

Care in Pennsylvania: 2022 Child Care Market Rate Survey Final Report. Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019-23 Number Establishments 3,699 3,686 3,686 3,684 3 subsidizes the purchaser of child care services, whereas stimulus funds subsidized the supplier (i.e., employer). Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. 3 See: Shapiro Administration Announces

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RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdf

This research brief updates one published in January 2023 to include an additional 11 months of gasoline consumption and retail price data. More tax changes are largely reflected in the prices paid by final consumers. Gasoline Consumption Remains Subdued Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2023 Author: Lesley Rompalo Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 CreationDate: 2023-12-19 13:11:36 ModDate: 2023-

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RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdf

the prior term (2019 to 2023). Historically, once this contract is approved, other CBAs will contain similar provisions. This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the AFSCME ratified CBA apply to all CBAs the IFO is required to analyze, see the IFO website. Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For this preliminary estimate, the IFO utilized payroll data obtained from the state

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RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdf

This research brief utilizes county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property tax property tax burden would increase from 2.57% to 2.74%. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Monroe

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RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdf

in the near-term, and then revert to the Federal Reserve target of 2.0% sometime in 2024. This research brief provides an update to an IFO analysis from October 2021 using recent hourly earnings and CPI data to quantify how U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data and methodology). Inflation’s Impact on Earnings and Pensions Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 High rates of inflation also impact public pensions because they are not indexed

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RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdf

This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) returns filed for tax year (TY) 2019 with the Pennsylvania Department of by IFO. No Liability Total 2,500,001 or more Corporate Net Income Tax Data 2019 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The second table provides insights into the two factors that motivate the results

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RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdf

September. The moratorium began in March 2020 and will have been effective for three and one-half years. This research brief uses the latest student loan data and the IMPLAN economic model to quantify the state economic and General Fund revenue www.crfb.org/blogs/student-loan-pause-could-cost-275-billion. Student Loan Repayment Moratorium Ends Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 and rates of savings, the analysis splits repayments across four income groups: under

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RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdf

This research brief is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal based on published data. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-02-02 20:22:41 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-02-02 20

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RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdf

of repayments (instead of 20 years) for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less. 1 This research brief presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact of the changes, the impact across household increase the cost of the IDR program by $450 billion or more. Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 revisions to the IDR program. 2 Over the 10-year federal budget window

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RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdf

are posted monthly as General Fund revenue and those amounts have increased dramatically over the past 15 months. This research brief examines the cause of the historically high collections and explains why the windfall is not expected to continue over the in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million reduction. Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2023 GF Avg. Fed Funds Treasury Effective Fiscal Year Daily Bal. Target Rate Collect. Rate 2014-15 $1,908

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RB-2018-01.pdf

Independent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 1 Research Brief 2018‐1 January 2018 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property tax Version 5.2.2 ModDate: 2018-02-23 19:14:51 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 15.0 (Windows) Title: SPT Research Brief V6.pub

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Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdf

This research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and stimulus programs and an estimated 20% increase in capital gains income. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Adams

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PBB_2023_EO_REPORT.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

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PBB_2023_DOR_REPORT.pdf

reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metrics follows the table. Tax Administration From 2019 through 2022, the department implemented a modernization project to

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PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22

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PBB_2023_DCNR_REPORT.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends follows the table. State Parks Through FY 2021-22, the department managed 121 state parks

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PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdf

reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor for each activity are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears below the table. State Archives and Record Center In partnership with the Office of

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PBB_2022_DLI_REPORT.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends follows the table. Unemployment Compensation Administration The department administers unemployment compensation (UC) benefits (Activity 1

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PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

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PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions to the overall operation of the agency. Key agency metrics that policymakers should monitor are displayed in the table. A brief explanation of key metric trends appears on the next page. 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdf

college campuses. The administration implemented statewide mitigation measures in response to the pandemic and federal emergency declaration. A brief summary of the timeline is as follows: 2  March 16: Pennsylvania schools close for 10 days and bars and restaurants close amounts. Estimated 2019-20 Projected 2020-21 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 18 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2019-20 and FY 2020-21. Corporate Net Income The

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Official-Revenue-Estimate-2018-06.pdf

U.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the consumer price index, payroll employment and income trends that motivate revenue projections. Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are by amounts. Estimated 2017-18 Projected 2018-19 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 10 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. Corporate Net Income The

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Oct_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ.pdf

00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement.pdf

00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announcement (002).pdf

00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-

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October_2020_Revenue_and_Economic_Update_Announ..pdf

00AM The Independent Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2020-

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NewsStand_2019_December.pdf

to 2018. The IFO will release an updated projection of 2019 collections in late January. Metro Unemployment Rates A recent brief by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia compares unemployment rates in metropolitan sta- tistical areas (MSAs) across the past three points across MSAs from a low of 1.3% in Ames, IA to 16.2% in El Centro, CA. The brief measures the cycli- cal sensitivity of metro area employment and finds that all of Pennsylvania’s MSAs are relatively less

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Migration_RB_06_2024.pdf

Tax Stats - Migration Data 2021–2022 | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov). Southern Migration Continued During COVID Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank South Carolina 70,429 1.33% 1 Income Division, SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2021-2022. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Staff Contact Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to Frank Lill, flill@ifo.state.pa.us. Individuals AGI Individuals AGI Individuals AGI Age of Primary

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Initial-Revenue-Estimate-2018-05.pdf

U.S. Treasury bill increases from 0.9 percent to 2.9 percent. The text that follows provides brief discussions for the consumer price index, payroll employment and income trends that motivate revenue projections. Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are by General Fund Estimate for FY 2018-19 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 10 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2017-18 and FY 2018-19. Corporate Net Income The

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IFO_Public_Briefing_May_2018_19.pdf

session is open to the public. The report will be posted to the office website at the start of the briefing. Updated Revenue Estimates www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO Public Briefing CreationDate: 2018-04-24 13:11:48 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 ModDate: 2022-06-01 20:10:19 Producer: Canva

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Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdf

115 million annually for debt service related to the Tobacco Settlement Bonds. The text that follows provides a brief discussion of historical revenue trends and the outlook for five of the largest General Fund revenue sources. The final subsection provides an kindergarten through grade 12 (Pre-K-12), (2) post-secondary and (3) other. The text that follows provides brief descriptions of these categories. Pre-K to Grade 12 Based on demographic trends of the school-age population, the forecast assumes that

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Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdf

The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration for direct use and line losses, which are not yet available for 2020. Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 that period. For the New England states, New York and New Jersey, prices

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_2021_Annoucement_Final.pdf

Fiscal Office will release an updated revenue estimate and discuss economic trends for FY 2020-21 to 2025-26. The briefing is open to the public and submitted questions will be addressed at the end of the presentation. The report will website when the presentation concludes. RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. (717) 230-8293 contact@ifo.state.pa.us www.ifo.state.pa.us CreationDate: 2021-

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Budget Hearings Packet.pdf

the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Dollar Amounts Growth Rates Gaming Revenue and Lottery Sales (15) Tax burden equal to ratio of total state-

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Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdf

the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these reports revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Dollar Amounts Growth Rates Gaming Revenue and Lottery Sales (15) Tax burden equal to ratio of total state-

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2000_cost_of_living_adjustments.pdf

2000. The report presents a general discussion of the issues involved in the provision of cost-of-living adjustments, a brief commentary on the Common- wealth’s past practices with respect to cost-of-living adjustments, and a summary of the statewide public employee retirement systems. However, there are several other issues evidenced in a review of Table II that warrant brief discussion. Absence of a Standard Design Criteria As evidenced by the variation in the design characteristics of the previous individual

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TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdf

g., a tax credit) because the private return does not reflect the public benefits. The text that follows provides a brief explanation of the positive externalities from waterfront development projects that have been noted by research studies. For a complete list

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TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdf

REAP Tax Credit, the IFO reviewed literature on the cost and environmental impact of these practices. This section includes a brief review of relevant reports and studies to assist in the general assessment of the effectiveness of the REAP Tax Credit

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TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdf

is only for live music concerts, while other state programs also include theatrical productions. The text that follows provides a brief overview of each state program. Georgia offers a non-refundable tax credit equal to 15 percent of qualified in-state

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TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdf

well an at-home recovery period. While the procedure and recovery for bone marrow dona- tion is relatively brief (about one week), time off for organ donation is significantly longer (three to nine days in the hospital and four to eight

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TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdf

increase in economic activity. Table 4.1 contains the economic impact analysis. The text that follows provides a brief description based on line number in the table. The analysis assumes that credits are used in the same year they are awarded

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TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdf

Impact Models. Comparisons, in Context of EB-5 Analysis,” AKRF, INC. (May 2013). “Improving Economic Development Incentives,” Policy Brief. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Re- search (2018). “JLARC Final Report: 2015 Tax Preference Performance Reviews,” Report 15-5. Washington State

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf

13 th check is provided each year to all current retired and disabled members. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of SERS employer pension contributions to General

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SERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2022.pdf

or below the baseline for the first ten years, then reverts to the baseline. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of SERS employer pension contributions to General

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Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdf

any amendments. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 - Slide 1 Today’s Presentation  Brief overview of HB 1776 / SB 1400 of 2012.  Analysis Objectives.  Analysis Results:  Surplus or shortfall to (1

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Jun_2023.pdf

growth in the Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW) and the Employment Cost Index (ECI). See the technical detail for a brief description regarding the computation of the index. 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 Revenues

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SD_Prop_Tax_Update_Aug_2022.pdf

the Statewide Average Weekly Wage (SAWW), which accounts for half of the base index. See the technical detail for a brief description regarding the computation of the index. 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Revenues

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SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdf

from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 The decline projected in February was based on a research brief that the IFO released in June 2020 on the impact of COVID-19 on local revenues. See http://www.ifo

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Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdf

focus of this analysis is on the immediate movement to a $12.00 minimum wage, and it provides only a brief discussion for the phased-in increase to $15.00 over the six years that follow. This approach is used to

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Revenue_Estimate_2024_06.pdf

2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2024-25 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 8 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across certain revenue sources for FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25. Corporate

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdf

2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2022-23 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Corporate Net

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Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdf

the unrounded amounts. Estimated 2021-22 Projected 2022-23 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23. Corporate Net

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Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdf

2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2021-22 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Corporate Net

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Revenue_Estimate_2016-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

its official revenue estimate for FY16-17. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $31.0 billion for FY15-16 represents an

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Snapshot.pdf

its official revenue estimate for FY15-16. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $30.54 billion for FY14-15 represents an

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Revenue_Estimate_2015-06-15_Release.pdf

year reduces the overall rate of growth for the General Fund.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Snapshot.pdf

its official revenue estimate for FY14-15. The full report (available on the IFO website) contains additional detail, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook. The revised General Fund revenue estimate of $28.5 billion for FY13-14 represents a

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Revenue_Estimate_2014-06-16_Release.pdf

growth due to improvements in the labor market and consumer spending.” A copy of the official revenue estimate, including a brief discussion of the economic outlook, is posted on the IFO’s website at www.ifo.state.pa.us. A separate

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Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdf

Budget and the corresponding impact on General Fund reve- nues over a five-year period. The text includes brief descriptions of the data sources and methodologies used to derive the revenue estimates and provides interstate comparisons or a discussion of tax

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Revenue-Estimate-2024-05.pdf

on unrounded amounts. Estimated 2023-24 Projected 2024-25 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 8 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across certain revenue sources for FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25. Corporate

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Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdf

Corporate Net Income. Estimated 2022-23 Projected 2023-24 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 14 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24. Corporate Net

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Revenue-Estimate-2019-05.pdf

Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2019-20 Initial Revenue Estimate | Page 12 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20. Corporate Net Income The

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Revenue Conference Presentation Jan 2013 FINAL.pdf

2 ModDate: 2013-01-23 16:04:52 Producer: Acrobat Distiller 10.1.5 (Windows) Title: Microsoft PowerPoint - Mid-Year Briefing Jan 2013 FINAL

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Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdf

tax revenues are also displayed in Table 2 but are not apportioned to senior residents. The following bullets provide a brief explanation of the data sources and results. Due to the imprecise nature of the data and estimates, ranges are used

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RB_2024_10_Act_1.pdf

impacted by partial year casino closures or restrictions. iGaming Drives Property Tax Relief to New High Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2024 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Staff Contact Questions regarding this report can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state

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RB_2024_07_CNIT.pdf

2031. Corporate Rate Reduction and Higher NOL Deduction Threshold Corporate Rate Reduction and Higher NOL Cap Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2024 CreationDate: 2024-07-17 13:10:25 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024-07-17 13

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RB_2024_07_Budget_Update.pdf

November 15. 1 See IFO Five-Year Outlook report . General Fund Surplus Likely Depleted Next Year Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2024 23-24 24-25 25-26 24-25 25-26 Gross Revenues $45,473 $45,767 $46,411

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RB_2024_06_Revenues_Spending.pdf

S. Consumers?, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (May 2024). Revenues and Spending Surge During Pandemic Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2024 General Fund Revenues and Spending 18-19 23-24 Growth Revenues $34,858 $45,489 30% Personal Income

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RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdf

the remainder of this decade. 1 See: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/ . More Older Pennsylvanians Working Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2024 Age Group 14-24 25-44 45-64 65+ All Employment Change Number (000s) 15.1 46.0

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RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdf

the same two months in 2020 (pre-Covid pandemic). Healthcare and Government Drive PA Job Gains Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2024 Number Percent All Payroll Jobs (000s) 62.5 1.0% Administrative and Support -8.8 -3.0% Retail

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RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdf

surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions. Negative Revision to PA Job Gains Expected Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2024 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2022.1 2022.2 2022.3 2022.4 2023.1 2023

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RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdf

population is estimated by IFO. CPI-U data are for October. SNAP Policy Changes Expand Program Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2024 CreationDate: 2024-01-11 14:53:18 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024-01-11 14

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RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdf

S. Census Bureau, 2019 and 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-01-05 16:35:07 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-01-05 16

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RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdf

of components due to unattributed amounts. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. PA Population Contracts Since 2020 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-01-04 19:01:14 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-01-04 19

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RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdf

record-state-budget-reserves-buffer- against-mounting-fiscal-threats. State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 State Rank Amount Share State Rank Amount Share Wyoming 1 $1,436 103

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RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdf

26 -41 -25 +81 +21 -23 -13 2022 Net Exports (million megawatt hours) Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 +81 +21 -48 -23 -26 -25 -13 % Export State 2018 2022 Change Share Pennsylvania 52.4 80.5

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RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdf

Bureau (jobs by age and 2020 population) and IFO (2022 population). Young Workers Leave PA Workforce Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The third set of figures shows the ratio of QWI payroll jobs to

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RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdf

in millions (except average). 2020 includes $1.86 billion in LWA payments. Unemployment Compensation by AGI Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 CreationDate: 2022-12-20 16:23:50 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2022-12-20 16

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RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdf

labor, which is reinforced by expansion of the income thresholds. Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 700 800 900 1000 1100 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000

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RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdf

irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2019-2020. PA Residents Migrating to Southern States Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 36,655 1.99% 1 Montana

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RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdf

S. BEA and IFO. 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2021 CreationDate: 2021-11-03 13:02:07 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2021-11-03 13

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RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdf

Bureau of Labor Statistics (data and methodology). Table 1 Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension Benefits Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Higher rates of inflation also have important implications for public pensions. Table 2

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RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdf

publishes separate indexes for health insurance and total benefits. PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2023 Pennsylvania Annual Growth Rates Philly Hourly Employ Year CPI-U Earnings Cost Index 2019 1.9% 1.4%

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RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdf

6 Pennsylvania Department of Human Services, 2023-2024 Quarterly BAF Rates. Pennsylvania’s Strained Nursing Homes Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2023 2019 2023 Growth Facilities 1 PA 695 672 -3.3% U.S. 15,471 14,993 -3.1%

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RB-2017-5.pdf

to three state economic metrics: (1) nominal gross domestic product (GDP), (2) personal income and (3) payroll employment. 2 A brief description of the three economic metrics is as follows:  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The value of all final goods

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QRR_2016Q1.pdf

fiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on specific General Fund revenue sources. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter and fiscal year-to-date.  Corporate net income tax revenues were $28 million

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QRR_2015Q4.pdf

fiscal year-to-date. Table 5 contains additional detail on specific General Fund revenue sources. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter and fiscal year-to-date. • Corporate net income revenues were $20 million below estimate

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QRR_2015Q3_preliminary.pdf

report. For the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund revenues were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter. • Corporate net income tax revenues were $27 million below estimate due to

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QRR_2015Q3.pdf

the first quarter of FY 2015-16, General Fund revenues were $74 million above estimate. The following bullets briefly discuss some of the highlights for the quarter. • Corporate net income tax revenues were $27 million below estimate due to lower-than-

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QRR_2015Q2.pdf

estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The following text provides a brief overview of the performance of the revenue estimates for the fiscal year, along with a discussion of the major revenue sources. Fiscal

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QRR_2015Q1.pdf

estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The following text provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections exceeded estimate by $158 million for the

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QRR_2014Q4.pdf

estimate. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The following text provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections exceeded estimate by $58 million for the

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QRR_2014Q2.pdf

Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The text that follows provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections were below estimate by $80 million for

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QRR_2013Q4.pdf

Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The text that follows provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. Corporate Net Income Tax Corporate net income tax collections were above estimate by $58 million for

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QRR_2013Q3.pdf

11 million. Additional detail on specific revenue sources can be found in Table 4. The text that follows provides a brief discussion for the major revenue sources. 2 Table 1 General Fund Snapshot ($ millions) Third Quarter - 2013 Fiscal Year-to-Date

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QRE_FY14-15.pdf

and 126 of 2014) that were enacted as part of the FY 2014-15 state budget. This appendix briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions of law that affect the projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. General Fund Transfers from Various Special

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Public Employee Retirement Laws of PA Local Governments (2009).pdf

various school employers are generally local governments, the PSERS is adequately explained elsewhere and is beyond the scope of this brief publication. -ii- Table of Contents Page General Information Public Employee Retirement Commission . . . . . . . 3 Probate, Estates and Fiduciaries Code . . . . . . . . . . 5 Postretirement

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PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2024.pdf

contribution (ADC) for the first 20 years, then revert to 100% of the ADC. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of PSERS employer pension contributions to General

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PSERS_Stress_Test_Impact_Analysis_2023.pdf

contribution (ADC) for the first 20 years, then revert to 100% of the ADC. The subsections that follow provide a brief description of (1) the methodology used by the IFO to compute the ratio of PSERS employer pension contributions to General

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Property-Tax-Update-August-2018.pdf

that have been published by the office. This letter contains updates to those tables and graphs. To provide context, a brief description follows. The original documents can be found on the IFO website. 1 Table 1 provides the most recent breakdown

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PBB_2023_PID_REPORT.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2021_DMVA_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2021_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdf

PBB) reviews submitted to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency: ▪ a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes; ▪ a breakdown of agency expenditures; ▪ the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent positions

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PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent

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PBB_2019_JCJC_Report.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent

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PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent

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PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent

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PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdf

to the Board contain the following content for each activity or service provided by the agency:  a brief description of the activity, and relevant goals and outcomes;  a breakdown of agency expenditures;  the number of full-time equivalent

Hits: 1

Official-Revenue-Estimate-2019-06.pdf

Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2019-20 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 12 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2018-19 and FY 2019-20. Corporate Net Income The

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NewsStand_2019_June.pdf

over-year. Opioid Crisis Impacts PA Productivity and Healthcare On June 4, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a brief that examines the opioid crisis using data from the Third District, which includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The article

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MTR-2016-12.pdf

subject to revision. Figures are annualized rates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Pennsylvania State Data Center, “Research Brief: 2016 National and State Population Estimates Released,” December 21, 2016. United States Pennsylvania Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-

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MQRE_FY24-25_08_2024.pdf

from statutory changes (Acts 54, 55, 56 and 85 of 2024) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund and Motor License Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow

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MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdf

impact from statutory changes (Acts 53, 54 and 55 of 2022) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include

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MQRE_FY21_22_August.pdf

statutory changes (Acts 24, 25 and 26 of 2021) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every statutory

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MQRE_FY20_21_Revised_Feb.pdf

impact from statutory changes (Act 114-2020) enacted in conjunction with the second part of the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include

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MQRE-FY23-24_Revised_Jan.pdf

statutory changes (Acts 33 and 34 of 2023) enacted in conjunction with the remainder of the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include

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MQRE-FY20-21-Aug.pdf

includes the impact from statutory changes (Act 23-2020) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every statutory

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MQRE-FY19-20-Aug.pdf

statutory changes (Acts 13, 15, 16, 20 and 65) enacted in conjunction with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provisions that affect projections of unrestricted Gen- eral Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every

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MQRE-FY18-19-July.pdf

impact from statutory changes (Acts 39 and 42) enacted in conjunc- tion with the state budget. This section briefly summarizes the recently enacted provi- sions that affect projections of unrestricted General Fund revenues. The descriptions that follow do not include every

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MidYear_PublicBriefing_Jan2018.pdf

and a preliminary revenue outlook for FY 2018-19. Mid-Year Revenue Update www.ifo.state.pa.us IFO PUBLIC BRIEFING CreationDate: 2018-01-17 19:36:46 Creator: Canva Keywords: DACT5o1_Ye4 ModDate: 2022-06-01 20:03:58 Producer: Canva

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MER-2014-06.pdf

Fiscal Of Ðice is conducting further re‐ search into Pennsylvania GSP and plans to publish Ðindings in a new Research Brief series this year. June 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Percentage points. 2 DE and WV are

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Medicaid_Expansion_Report_Note_on_Revisions.pdf

the uncertainty regarding those additional federal funds. Please refer to the note at the front of the report for a brief description of the changes. Author: mryan CreationDate: 2013-05-13 19:09:26 Creator: PScript5.dll Version 5.2.2

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June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdf

2 General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY 2021-22 Official Revenue Estimate | Page 16 The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate trends across revenue sources for FY 2020-21 and FY 2021-22. Corporate Net

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Ironman_Triathlon_Impact_Analysis_2024_04.pdf

This analysis describes the event, the amount and form of state support provided, and evaluates the state economic impact. A brief description of the motivation and methodology used for this analysis can be found at the end of this report. Event

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IFO_Testimony_RGGI_Nov_4_2022.pdf

Committee March 29, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning Chairs and members of the committees. For my brief remarks, I will provide comments on the most recent assumptions used by the consultant to model the potential impact on

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IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdf

today. To provide some context for the packet that has been submitted for this budget hearing, I would like to briefly discuss recent economic and revenue trends, as well the potential impact of the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA

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IFO_Testimony_CR_June_29_2023.pdf

of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on the filing method known as combined reporting. For my brief remarks, I will review the figure and three tables that are attached. Under mandatory combined reporting, multi-state firms that

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IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdf

and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past year, and all

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdf

public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely

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IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdf

public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely

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IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdf

Complex. Compensation is based on education, skills and experience. A comprehensive benefits package is included. Interested applicants should submit a brief cover letter and resume by email to Charlene Raves (craves@ifo.state.pa.us). Please type the word 'Application' in

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IFO_ Job_Posting_Jan_2022.pdf

subject line. Qualified applicants will be asked to come into the office for an in-person interview and complete a brief written assessment that demonstrates critical thinking and writing skills. For more information about the office, see http://www.ifo.state

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IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdf

Boscola and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to testify. For my remarks, I will provide some brief comments on combined reporting, the use of the filing method by other states and the IFO’s perspective on the

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IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdf

phase-out must also be incorporated as a technical adjustment. All significant technical adjustments are noted in the text. A brief summary that describes the basic methodology used to derive revenue projections may be found in the Appendix. Unless stated otherwise

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House_Maj_Policy_Com_Testimony_June_8_2022.pdf

June 8, 2022 Matthew Knittel, Director, Independent Fiscal Office Good morning committee members. For my testimony, I will note some brief highlights from the tables and graphs that appear below. Philadelphia CPI-U The latest data for the Philadelphia CPI-U

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House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdf

highest rate of marijuana-related ED visits from 2015 to 2018 (16.7 per 1,000 ED visits). A 2020 brief by the federal-state Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project found that the national average cost per ED visit was $530

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House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdf

table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden by county. This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget hearing

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HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdf

this budget hearing, I would like to discuss recent economic and revenue trends. I would also like to make some brief comments regarding the IFO’s recently published performance-based budget (PBB) plans and tax credit reviews. Revenue Update for FY

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GPNP July 10, 2012 final.pdf

Independent Fiscal Office (IFO).  Who we are.  What we do.  Official Revenue Estimate.  Other analyses.  Brief Economic Update.  What do tax data show? 10.Jul.2012 1 2012 GPNP Conference IFO Concept  IFO combines

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdf

changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us. Sincerely

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020_10.pdf

expectations (+$580 million) for the first four months of the fiscal year. The text that follows provides a brief description of the factors that motivate revisions to the estimate by major revenue source for FY 2020-21. Corporate Net Income The

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Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdf

issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year, and

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2023.pdf

15, 2023 at 1:30 PM Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years

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Economic_and_Budget_Outlook_Announcement_2022.pdf

15, 2022 at 1:30 PM Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the virtual briefing. The IFO will present its annual report on the fiscal outlook for the Commonwealth for the next five fiscal years

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Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdf

Lotto -2.9% -9.4% 9.3% -7.6% Note: millions of dollars. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Slots and table games revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds. Table

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Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdf

out by age group. Deaths were higher in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the research brief COVID- 19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths, the IFO calculated the excess deaths for 2020 and 2021. 2 Slightly over 75%

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Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdf

and net migration rates for Pennsylvania residents. The treatment of COVID-19, the recent worldwide pandemic, is also briefly discussed on the next page. Births The projection for births is based on a two-year average birth rate from 2017 to

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April_1_Revenue_Update.pdf

state.pa.us INDEPENDENT FISCAL OFFICE April 1, 2024 Dear Chairs Martin, Hughes, Harris and Grove: This letter provides a brief update to the IFO’s General Fund revenue forecast based on year-to-date revenues. Through March, revenues are running

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Announcement_2021.pdf

15, 2021 at 1:30PM RSVP Here Please click on the link to register and receive an invitation to the briefing, which will be held virtually. Why have workers departed the state labor force? How long will inflation remain elevated? Does

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2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdf

an impact on Gross State Product, but the magnitude is unclear since those data are not currently available. 1 See “Briefing: Results of the 2013 NIPA Comprehen- sive Revisions” at http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/ 2013briefingslides%20for%20web.pdf. Source: U.S

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2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdf

administrative agreement with the Governor’s Office of Administration, under which the PEBTF functions as a third party administrator. (A brief description of the PEBTF is provided in Appendix VI). The arrangement for that program requires that the PEBTF invoice the

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2002_dbdc_report.pdf

presents, as background, a discussion of the nature of defined benefit pension plans and defined contribution pension plans and a brief description of the Commonwealth’s current state-wide defined benefit pension plans. The report also provides responses to the seven

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