Child Care Stimulus Funds DepletedThis research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). Tags: brief, care, child, research |
Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly WagesThis research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour. Tags: brief, minimum, research, wage |
Gasoline Consumption Remains SubduedThe IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers. Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research |
Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since PandemicThis research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. Tags: brief, cigarette, research, tax |
PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to InflationThe COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker. Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, research |
Pennsylvania's Strained Nursing HomesThe IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019. Tags: brief, homes, nursing, research |
Treasury Windfalls Boost RevenuesTreasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term. Tags: brief, research, treasury |
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage ContractsThis research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. Tags: brief, budget, contracts, impact, research, wage |
Inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. Tags: brief, earnings, inflation, pensions, research |
Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code. Tags: brief, cnit, research |
What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports. Tags: brief, lottery, research |
Student Loan Repayment Moratorium EndsAs part of its annual revenue estimate, the IFO modeled the economic and revenue impact from the scheduled end of the student loan moratorium in September 2023. An IMPLAN economic simulation finds that annual state nominal GDP will decline by $3.4 billion while sales tax revenues decline by $125 million and personal income tax by $40 million. Tags: brief, loan, research, student |
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. Tags: brief, migration, research |
Emergency Rental Assistance EndsThe IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state. Tags: assistance, brief, rental, research |
Post-Pandemic Gasoline ConsumptionThe IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects. Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research |
Unemployment Compensation by AGIThe IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds. Tags: brief, compensation, research, unemployment |
Young Workers Leave PA WorkforceThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate. Tags: brief, reduction, research, worker |
Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.
Tags: brief, demographics, labor, research |
Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives. Tags: brief, research, snap |
County Income PatternsThis research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. Tags: brief, county, incomes, research |
Pennsylvania's Gasoline TaxThe IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. Tags: brief, gasoline, research, tax |
Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding OptionThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021. Tags: brief, pension, research |
PA Residents Migrating to Southern StatesThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. Tags: brief, migration, research |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. Tags: brief, loans, research, student |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. Tags: brief, county, incomes, research |
Economic Impact of Federal StimulusThis research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. Tags: brief, economic, federal, impact, research, stimulus |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. Tags: brief, credits, development, economic, incentives, research, tax |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. Tags: brief, county, incomes, research |
More Older Pennsylvanians WorkingThis research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of Pennsylvania payroll workers. Compared to data prior to COVID-19, there has been a large absolute (number) and relative (growth) increase in older workers. 04/17/2024 |
Child Care Stimulus Funds DepletedThis research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pennsylvania received approximately $1.6 billion in federal child care stimulus funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act; Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA); and American Rescue Plan (ARP). 03/21/2024 |
2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400This research brief provides detail on the latest benchmark revision made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to Pennsylvania payroll jobs. 03/13/2024 |
Negative Revision to PA Job Gains ExpectedThis research brief examines the implications of a recent QCEW data release for state payroll jobs data. 02/29/2024 |
Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly WagesThis research brief examines how a higher statutory minimum wage could impact lower-wage workers and provides employment and hourly wage estimates for certain lower-wage occupations to illustrate that Pennsylvania effective labor market minimum wage is likely in the range of $10.50 to $11.00 per hour. 01/24/2024 |
SNAP Policy Changes Expand ProgramThis research brief uses the latest data from the US Dept of Agriculture to examine post-pandemic SNAP trends. Since November 2019, policy and definition changes have increased the number of recipients by 16% and the average monthly benefit by 52%. 01/03/2024 |
Gasoline Consumption Remains SubduedThe IFO updated a gasoline consumption research brief published in January 2023 with additional consumption and retail pump price data. Gasoline consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels partially due to the continuation of hybrid and remote work schedules for some workers. 12/19/2023 |
Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since PandemicThis research brief highlights the dramatic decline in federal, state and Philadelphia cigarette tax collections since FY 2018-19. 12/11/2023 |
PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to InflationThe COVID-19 pandemic caused an inflation surge and wage pressures due to worker shortages and strong demand. This research brief uses the latest published data to examine how those outcomes affected real wages and earnings for the average or typical Pennsylvania private sector worker. 11/30/2023 |
Pennsylvania's Strained Nursing HomesThe IFO posted a new research brief that discusses placement waitlists and potential cost implications from the contraction in nursing home capacity since 2019. 10/25/2023 |
Economic and Revenue Impact of Student Loan MoratoriumDirector Knittel gave a presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax research Conference on the economic and revenue impact of the student loan moratorium. 10/03/2023 |
Treasury Windfalls Boost RevenuesTreasury collections are up dramatically from prior years. This research brief examines the cause of the windfalls and explains why they aren’t expected to continue over the long-term. 09/25/2023 |
County Income Patterns 2018-2021This research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. 08/24/2023 |
Property Tax Burden By CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2021. 08/22/2023 |
Budget Impact of 2023 Wage ContractsThis research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the newly ratified AFSCME collective bargaining agreement (CBA) apply to all CBAs reviewed by the IFO, as well as management and non-represented workers. 08/14/2023 |
Property Tax/Rent Rebate ExpansionThis research brief uses data from the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue, the American Community Survey and Social Security Administration to estimate the impact of the recently enacted expansion of the PTRR program. It provides detail on impact by income level, claimant type and county. 08/09/2023 |
Inflation's Impact on Earnings and PensionsThis research brief uses recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute the impact of unusually high inflation on real average hourly earnings of Pennsylvania workers and a typical SERS-PSERS annuitant. 07/31/2023 |
Corporate Net Income Tax TY 2019This research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) return data from tax year 2019 based on tax liability, apportionment factor and NAICS code. 07/25/2023 |
What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots?The IFO posted a new research brief that discusses the factors that motivate recent record Lottery jackpots for Mega Millions and Powerball and how large jackpots from those two games impact funds for programs the Lottery Fund supports. 06/13/2023 |
PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate SouthThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2020 and 2021. The IRS data indicate Pennsylvania net domestic migration was -14,376 (-0.11% of state population), which ranked 34th across all states. Large net inflows came from border states and net outflows went to southern states, most notably Florida. The adjusted gross income averaged $46,600 for the inflow group and $52,300 for outflows, with a total net flow of nearly -$2.0 billion. 05/03/2023 |
Expiration of the Enhanced FMAPThe IFO posted a fourth research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the fiscal impact on the Commonwealth that will result from the phaseout of the enhanced Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP) and disenrollments due to the elimination of the continuous coverage requirement. The analysis finds a $1.70 billion net increase in state costs for FY 2023-24 and $2.13 billion the year after. The report was originally posted on March 17, 2023 and was updated on April 6, 2023 for technical changes to the FMAP enhancement for newly eligible enrollees. The updated report also includes revised estimates from DHS for FY 23-24 expenditures covered by the enhanced FMAP phaseout. 04/06/2023 |
State Rainy Day and General Fund BalancesThe IFO posted a new research brief that uses published data from The Pew Charitable Trusts to rank states based on the ratio of (1) Rainy Day Fund balances and (2) Total Balances (Rainy Day plus General Fund) to General Fund expenditures for enacted FY 2022-23 budgets. 03/24/2023 |
Emergency Rental Assistance EndsThe IFO posted a third research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines trends in eviction filings since the onset of the pandemic and the use of $1.6 billion in funds received for the Emergency Rental Assistance Program throughout the state. 03/06/2023 |
Pennsylvania Electricity UpdateThe IFO posted a research brief that provides an overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. For 2022, PA remains the top exporter of electricity across all states. The next largest state (AL) exported 40% less electricity. 03/01/2023 |
Post-Pandemic Child Care CliffThe IFO posted a second research brief that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief examines the impact that nearly $820 million in federal support had on the child care industry and its employees, and the funding cliff the industry will encounter in the near future. 02/23/2023 |
SNAP Emergency Allotments End in FebruaryThe IFO posted a research brief that is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the federal public health emergency that will impact the state economy. The brief quantifies the impact from the end of SNAP emergency allotments in February 2023. This research brief was reposted on February 2, 2023 to change the 2023 summer benefit to $120 per child. 01/27/2023 |
Post-Pandemic Gasoline ConsumptionThe IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects. 01/05/2023 |
PA Population Contracts Since 2020The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states. 01/04/2023 |
Unemployment Compensation by AGIThe IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds. 12/21/2022 |
Tax Credits and Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization. This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1. 12/15/2022 |
Young Workers Leave PA WorkforceThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate. 12/08/2022 |
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROIMichaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study. 10/26/2022 |
Where Did the Workers Go?This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report. The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force. 10/25/2022 |
Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives. 09/29/2022 |
Property Tax Burden by CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2020. 09/06/2022 |
Student Loan Debt ForgivenessThe IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program. 08/31/2022 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief uses the latest published data to generate maps and county rankings of recent demographic and income trends. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita amounts for all counties in the Commonwealth. 08/16/2022 |
Pennsylvania's Gasoline TaxThe IFO published a research brief that examines the Pennsylvania gasoline tax, which comprises 55% of Motor License Fund revenues. Although Pennsylvania levies the highest gasoline tax rate in the nation, the analysis finds that collections have not kept pace with the rising cost of road construction. This outcome is largely the result of the tax structure, which is tied to the average wholesale price of fuel and has not increased since 2018. For FY 2021-22, the IFO estimates that the annual gasoline tax burden per licensed Pennsylvania driver is $285. 06/13/2022 |
Financial Impact of SERS Pre-Funding OptionThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of Act 105 of 2019, which allows certain SERS employers the option to pre-fund their unfunded liabilities. The analysis finds that the two participating employers effectively locked in roughly $1 billion of nominal savings over thirty years while all SERS employers are projected to save an additional $300 million (nominal). The savings are due to very strong returns realized on advance payments made in 2020 and 2021. 06/09/2022 |
PA Residents Migrating to Southern StatesThe IFO posted a research brief that uses recent IRS tax data to track migration between states for 2019 and 2020. The IRS data show large net inflows from most border states and net outflows to southern states, most notably Florida. Net outflows were much heavier for residents age 55 and older. 06/02/2022 |
Pennsylvania Electricity UpdateThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. 03/14/2022 |
Is the Student Loan Moratorium Impacting Employment?The federal student loan moratorium enters its third year. The IFO posted a research brief that examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (and related federal policies) on payroll employment and employment-to-population ratios by age group. Despite record-level job openings, the latest data for 2021 Q2 show the largest relative reductions for young workers, many of whom have student loans. By contrast, early retirements appear to have played a smaller role in decades-low labor force participation rates. 03/08/2022 |
COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania DeathsThis research updates a prior release (September 2021) that used preliminary data to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 and 2021. The analysis finds 19,800 excess deaths in 2020 and estimates 18,900 excess deaths for 2021. 02/11/2022 |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 11/29/2021 |
PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage GrowthUsing the latest data, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief that finds historic wage gains for the U.S. and Pennsylvania. The brief notes that employee compensation comprises 56% of final sales and firms will likely push most labor costs forward to final consumers, thereby putting upward pressure on prices and inflation. 11/03/2021 |
Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension BenefitsThe IFO published a new research brief that examines the impact of inflation on the real earnings of Pennsylvania workers and the real value of public pension benefits. 10/19/2021 |
COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania DeathsThis research brief uses preliminary data for 2020 and 2021 (through September) to compute excess deaths above pre-COVID historical trends in the Commonwealth for those two years. The analysis finds 20,700 excess deaths in 2020 and projects 6,700 excess deaths for 2021. 09/30/2021 |
Public Pension Status and OutlookThe IFO released a research brief that provides a status update and outlook for public pension systems in Pennsylvania. Data for state and local systems show that while the fiscal health of public pension systems has improved in recent years, the overall unfunded liability remains significant. 09/28/2021 |
Pennsylvania Electricity UpdateThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration to provide a general overview of the Pennsylania electricity market. 09/09/2021 |
Property Tax Burden by CountyThis research brief uses (1) income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Internal Revenue Service and (2) property tax data from the Pennsylvania Department of Education and Department of Community and Economic Development to estimate and rank county-level property tax burdens across the state for 2019. Note: This research brief was originally posted on 8/17/2021. It has been updated to include a map that displays school district property tax burdens by county. 08/25/2021 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents five maps that display recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/10/2021 |
Economic Impact of Federal StimulusThis research brief examines the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania residents and the economy. It estimates the total amount of federal stimulus provided directly to individuals by income group and considers the impact on employment, output, and whether the infusion of federal monies into the state economy is conducive to raising the state minimum wage. 05/10/2021 |
PPP Loans to Pennsylvania BusinessesThis research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the potential employment impact and possible tax implications. 12/08/2020 |
Pennsylvania Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief presents data on Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive programs spending or utilization. 10/15/2020 |
Impact of the TCJA on Pennsylvania TaxpayersThis research brief uses newly released IRS tax data to examine how the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 impacted Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. The analysis finds that tax law changes likely reduced federal income taxes by roughly $8.5 to $9.0 billion. This research brief was originally posted on October 2 but was updated and reposted on October 13 so that refundable tax credits and certain miscellaneous taxes (AMT and net investment tax) are reflected in average tax rate and estimated tax cut computations. Previously, those amounts were itemized separately. 10/13/2020 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 06/10/2020 |
Property Tax by County and IncomeThis research brief uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey to provide Pennsylvania property tax data for 2018 by county, household income and homeowner age. 04/07/2020 |
OBMD, MTBI, R&D, and KIZ Tax Credit Reviews and PBB Overview for DCED, DOH and DHSIFO presentation of Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment, research and Development and Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Reviews and Performance-Based Budget highlights for the Department of Community and Economic Development, Department of Health and Department of Human Services. 01/22/2020 |
research and Development Tax CreditAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the research and Development Tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020 |
Keystone Innovation Zone Tax CreditAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Keystone Innovation Zone Tax Credit Report. 01/21/2020 |
Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax CreditAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020 |
Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax CreditAct 48 of 2017 requires the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) to review all state tax credits over a five-year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed the research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. Click on the link to access the Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit Report. 01/16/2020 |
2019 Impact Fee EstimateThis research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2019 Impact Fee collections. Collections are estimated to be $198.2 million, a decrease of $53.6 million from the prior year. 01/09/2020 |
Redevelopment Assistance Capital ProgramIn response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office published a research brief related to the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program. The brief provides historical data of the program and examines the potential impact of proposed legislation. This research brief was updated November 12, 2019 to take Act 43 of 2019 into consideration. 10/31/2019 |
Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017This research brief uses state personal income tax data to estimate natural gas royalties paid to landowners in 2017. The data suggest that royalties paid increased significantly from the prior year due to increased production and higher prices. 09/20/2019 |
Property Tax Rent Rebate ProgramIn response to a legislative request, the IFO transmitted a letter that analyzes a proposed expansion of the Property Tax Rent Rebate Program. Note: This analysis was originally posted on May 15, 2019. The analysis was reposted on September 12, 2019 to reflect technical adjustments made by the IFO based on research cited in the footnotes of the updated analysis. 09/12/2019 |
County Income PatternsThis research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The release highlights population change, personal income growth and per capita figures for all counties of the Commonwealth. 08/30/2019 |
2018 IMPACT FEE ESTIMATE - JANUARY 2019This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2018 Impact Fee collections. 01/24/2019 |
2017 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2018This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2017 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. Revised for technical factor on 2/22/2018. 01/19/2018 |
School District Property Tax ForecastThis research brief contains the IFO's forecasted school district property tax collections from FY 2016-17 through FY 2022-23. The brief also contains estimates of school district property tax collections that can be attributed to homestead property. Total school property tax collections for FY 2016-17 ($14.0 billion) and FY 2017-18 ($14.4 billion) are estimated using millage rates published by the Pennsylvania Department of Education and property tax assessment data. For FY 2018-19 through FY 2022-23, collections are projected based on the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of property taxes. During that period, total school property tax collections are projected to grow by an average annual rate of 3.3 percent, reaching $17.0 billion by FY 2022-23. 01/18/2018 |
County Homestead DetailAs an extension of its recent research relating to property taxes, the IFO has released additional data regarding homestead property. Estimates for the numbers and assessed values of homestead properties by county are based, in large part, on the results of a survey of county assessment offices. The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania provided valuable assistance by coordinating the survey. Data for Philadelphia has been adjusted based on new information provided by the Philadelphia Department of Revenue. 12/06/2017 |
Impact Fee Update and 2017 OutlookThis research brief examines 2016 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2017. 07/04/2017 |
Pennsylvania Gaming TrendsThis research brief contains current and historical trends for casino gaming, pari-mutuel gaming and the lottery. The brief also presents casino gaming revenues, tax rates and effective tax rates for adjacent states, which likely influence trends for Pennsylvania. The final section displays how revenues from the three types of gaming were used in the state budget for the most recent year of actual data, FY 2015-16. 02/13/2017 |
2016 Impact Fee Estimate - January 2017This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2016 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 01/02/2017 |
Impact Fee Update and 2016 OutlookThis research brief examines 2015 impact fee collections and natural gas production in Pennsylvania. It also provides an outlook for 2016. 07/14/2016 |
Economic Development IncentivesThis research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these incentives. The report displays this information for the two most recently completed fiscal years (FY): 2013-14 and 2014-15. 03/25/2016 |
Impact Fee Update - February 2016This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to project CY 2015 Impact Fee collections in Pennsylvania. 02/29/2016 |
Raising the Minimum Wage in PennsylvaniaThis research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of the proposal to 1) raise the Pennsylvania state minimum wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and 2) automatically adjust future minimum wage levels to offset inflation. 11/30/2015 |
Impact Fee Update and 2015 OutlookThis research brief analyzes calendar year (CY) 2014 impact fee revenues (remitted April 2015) reported by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) and potential scenarios for CY 2015. The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 06/25/2015 |
Pennsylvania Gaming TrendsThis research brief gives a historical overview of gaming trends and revenues in Pennsylvania. This includes the role of gaming in the state economy as well as comparisons to other states. 02/28/2015 |
Impact Fee Update - February 2015This research brief estimates the calendar year 2014 impact fee revenues (to be remitted in April 2015) using data from the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) and the Public Utility Commission (PUC). The research brief also translates the impact fee into an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) based on recent natural gas price and production data. The ETR is a metric that quantifies the implicit tax burden imposed by the impact fee in a given year. 02/27/2015 |
State Economic ComparisonThis research brief uses Real GDP, Personal Income and Payroll Employment to compare economic performance in Pennsylvania to four adjacent states and the U.S. over the past decade. 09/30/2014 |
TC_2020_Research and Development Tax Credit.pdftax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the reports available to the public on the IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Research and Development Tax Credit (RDTC). The IFO reviewed numerous studies on state research and development incentives, held discussions with various stakeholders and Hits: 82 |
Single-Use Plastics Report-2020_06.pdfthe IFO in May 2019. Primary responsibilities include forecasting corporate net income tax revenues, business- and economic-related research, performance-based budgeting initiatives and various other projects including the Special Education Funding Formula survey. Mathieu Taylor, Fiscal Analyst II Mr. Taylor implications not only for consumers, but also retailers, manufacturers and state and local governments. For 2018, Freedonia Custom Research, an independent international market research firm, estimated that the U.S. consumed 70 billion single-use plastic bags. 5 Data from the Hits: 56 |
index.cfmContracts Tax Credit Review Economics and Other Featured Releases More Older Pennsylvanians Working Economics and Other April 17, 2024 This research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of or the Office of the Budget." ... (Full Report) Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Economics and Other March 21, 2024 This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 Hits: 48 |
2007_divestment_complete_report.pdf2007 – Appendix XIII . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411 Pennsylvania Employment Impact – Appendix XIV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415 “Should Public Plans Engage in Social Investing?” Center for Retirement Research at Boston College August 2007, Number 7-12, by Alicia H. Munnell -vi- Table of Contents (Cont’d) Part VI reviewing and relying on publicly available information regarding companies having business operations in Sudan, including information provided by nonprofit organizations, research firms, international organizations, and government entities; contacting asset managers that invest in companies having business operations in Sudan; and contacting Hits: 47 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2019-03.pdfpotential employment effects, income effects and implications for General Fund revenues and expenditures. Due to lack of current research, the section provides only general comments on the proposed increase in the min- imum wage from $12.00 to $15.00 per to shift profits to low or no tax states. In 2013, the IFO issued a report which used research from states that implemented combined reporting during the previous decade to examine the revenue impact from that filing method. 2 The report Hits: 41 |
TC_2020_Keystone_Innovation_Zone_Tax_Credit.pdftax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The KIZ Tax Credit is unique to Pennsylvania, and Hits: 35 |
2013_special_report_funding_and_reforming_public_employee_retirement_systems.pdfof Return by Interest Assumption Range. . . . . 23 Appendices•Appendix 1 – Testimonies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Testimony of Stephen Herzenberg, Ph.D., Executive Director, Keystone Research Center. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Testimony of Brian K. Jensen, Ph.D., Executive Director, PA Economy League of Greater Pittsburgh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Testimony of Richard C Legislation Database (made possible by the Pew Center on the States) via the following link:http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/labor/pension-legislation-database.aspx A report entitled Laura and John Arnold Foundation Policy Perspective, Pension Litigation Summary, Stuart Buck Hits: 29 |
PBB_2020_DOH_REPORT_Final_Update.pdfActivity 8: Women, Infants and Children (WIC) ................................................................... 29 Activity 9: Maternal and Child Health .................................................................................. 31 Activity 10: Health Research .............................................................................................. 33 Activity 11: Public Health & Emergency Medical Services ...................................................... 35 Activity 12: State Laboratory .............................................................................................. 37 Activity 13: Administration ................................................................................................. 39 Appendix .......................................................................................................................... 41 Performance-Based for some portion of their higher education budget. See “Performance-Based Budgeting in the States,” NCSL Fiscal Policy Research, Vol. 24, No. 35 (September 2016). Background and Methodology | Page 2 The performance-based budget in this report differs from a traditional Hits: 27 |
TC_2020_Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment Tax Credit.pdftax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: the Research and Development, Key- stone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, twenty-four states (includes Pennsylvania) offer one or Hits: 23 |
Summary_Tax_Credit_Reviews_Oct_2023.pdfHistoric Preservation ........................................................................................................................ 4 New Jobs ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Keystone Innovation Zone ............................................................................................................... 6 Mobile Broadband Investment .......................................................................................................... 7 Organ and Bone Marrow Donation .................................................................................................... 8 Research and Development .............................................................................................................. 9 Entertainment Economic Enhancement Program .............................................................................. 10 Keystone Special Development Zone Program ................................................................................. 11 Neighborhood Assistance Program.................................................................................................. 12 Resource Enhancement it is unclear whether the credit meets its intended purpose because the credit is too small to incentivize large projects. Research shows potential for significant returns if the tax credit is targeted more efficiently to projects that truly require state funding Hits: 19 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2020-04.pdfbased on audit results. Combined Reporting Base Expansion Analysis In 2013, the IFO issued a report which used research from states that implemented combined reporting during the previous decade to examine the revenue impact from the enactment of that filing method industry or sector (e.g., fast food). Neumark (2015) 21 Based on a review of existing studies, this research note from the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco finds that “the overall body of recent evidence suggests that the most credible Hits: 18 |
PBB_2022_AGRICULTURE_REPORT.pdf2.1 -- 9.8 5.0 2.9 23.1 State Racing Fund -- -- $50.0 -- -- -- 50.0 Equine Tox. and Research Lab. -- -- 13.3 -- -- -- 13.3 Breeder's Fund -- -- 10.9 -- -- -- 10.9 Sire Stakes Fund -- -- 9.5 -- -- -- 9.5 PA promotes and regulates the horse racing industry in Pennsylvania, through the State Horse Racing Commission and the Pennsylvania Equine Toxicology Research Laboratory (PETRL). The Horse Rac- ing Commission oversees the marketing and promotion of the industry, as well as the management Hits: 17 |
RB-2016-02.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice March 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐2 March 2016 Economic Development Incentives Economic development incentives attempt to stimulate economic growth through various direct (e spending on economic development incentives. In Pennsylvania, the information is dispersed across multiple sources and is not readily available. This research brief compiles data on economic development incentives into a single document to facilitate a tabulation of Commonwealth spending on these Hits: 15 |
TC_2023_Rural_Jobs_Investment.pdfreview for the Rural Jobs and Investment Tax Credit (RJITC). The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed available research, held discussions with various stake- holders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Seventeen states (including Pennsylvania) offer investment programs Hits: 14 |
RB_2021_01_Economic_Impact_of_Federal_Stimulus.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to examine the impact of certain federal stimulus programs enacted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic on Pennsylvania adult), the extension of UC programs (reduced extra weekly benefit from $600 to $300) and an increase to 1 This research brief does not consider provisions that provide support to state and local governments, hospitals, colleges, small businesses and non-profits Hits: 14 |
PBB_2020_DCED_REPORT.pdffor some portion of their higher education budget. See “Performance-Based Budgeting in the States,” NCSL Fiscal Policy Research, Vol. 24, No. 35 (September 2016). Background and Methodology | Page 2 The performance-based budget in this report differs from a traditional skilled trades from The Skilled Trades in New York State report released by the New York Division of Research (June 2016). Occupations include, but are not limited to, carpenters, electricians and plumbers. Calculations by the IFO. Manufacturing Sector Jobs Skilled Trades Hits: 13 |
TC_2022_Educational_Tax_Credits.pdfthe tax credit review for the Educational Tax Credits (ETC). The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed available research, held discussions with numerous stakeholders and with met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Please note that although the IFO requested Hits: 11 |
RB-2015-04.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice November 2015 1 Research Brief 2015‐4 November 2015 Raising the Minimum Wage in Pennsylvania The FY 2015‐16 Executive Budget includes a proposal wage from $7.25 to $10.10 and (2) automatically adjusts future minimum wage levels to offset in Ðlation. This research brief presents an analysis of the potential impact of that proposal. The analysis uses data from the Current Population Survey Hits: 11 |
TC_2021_Resource_Enhancement_and_Protection.pdfwater pollution, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Pennsylvania is one of two states in to reduce personal income tax liabilities (79.3 percent). This implies that the REAP Tax Credit benefits small businesses. ▪ Available research generally concludes that incentives (e.g., tax credits and grants) combined with regulatory compliance efforts are the most effective way Hits: 10 |
TC_2019_Historic_Preservation_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfheld discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff that administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The HPTC differs from other tax credits because short- Historic Preservation and Cultural and Entertainment District Tax Credit: Tax Credits Evaluation Study,” Iowa Department of Revenue, Tax Research and Program Analysis Section (December 2014), p. 10. 7 Acts 1974, No. 273, Section 1. Amended by Acts 1975, No. 592, Section Hits: 10 |
CNIT-Rate-Cut-2018-04.pdfwill have different levels of profitability. More profitable industries will pay more tax at a given tax rate. Finally, most researchers believe that capital owners (i.e., shareholders) bear the majority of the burden of the state CNIT, and most corporate interest or rent. Those same groups will benefit from any reduction in the tax rate. In the near‐term, most research finds that capital owners will benefit from tax rate reductions (or bear the burden of a tax increase). However, as Hits: 10 |
TC_2023_Manufacturing.pdfthe tax credit review for the Manufacturing Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the limited research available, held discussions with stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Only four states (Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Maryland and Hits: 9 |
TC_2021_Keystone_Special_Development_Zones_Update.pdfThis report contains the tax credit review for the Keystone Special Development Zone (KSDZ) Tax Credit. The IFO reviewed relevant research related to economic incentives for brownfield remediation and rede- velopment, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The IFO initially released this analysis as Hits: 9 |
TC_2019_New_Jobs_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfheld discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, 25 states offer some version of a broad- fill the position(s). The net economic impact of the credit is too small to model formally. Research finds that roughly 95 percent of the jobs created under the program would also be created in absence of the credit. Using Hits: 9 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2021_04.pdfCorporate Net Income Tax | Page 5 Combined Reporting Base Expansion Analysis In 2013, the IFO issued a report which used research from states that implemented combined reporting during the previous decade to examine the revenue impact from the enactment of that to capital income that comprises their income. The authors emphasize that mo- bility responses may appear significantly large in other research because top marginal tax rates pertain to only a specific group of taxpayers, and that other outside factors may play Hits: 9 |
Revenue-Proposal-Analysis-2018-04.pdfIncome Effects for Affected Workers ........................................................................ 24 Potential Implications for General Fund Revenues .................................................. 26 A Final Note: The Latest Research on Minimum Wage ............................................ 29 - This page intentionally left blank. - Introduction | Page 1 Introduction This report provides revenue estimates for the tax proposals modest positive impact on firms’ location decisions. Combined Reporting The estimate references an IFO report (2013) which used research from states that have implemented combined reporting during the previous decade to examine the revenue impact from that filing method. 2 The Hits: 9 |
TC_2021_Video_Game_Production.pdfproduction incentives, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, nineteen states (includes Pennsylvania) offer one states (i.e., most states combine the incentive with the much larger film tax credit), there is a dearth of research that examines the specific impact of the video game industry on state and local economies. The text that follows provides Hits: 8 |
TC_2019_Film_Production_Tax_Credit_Report.pdfheld discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. For 2018, 32 states used an FPTC to incentivize who are employed by a firm that is located outside the state. 12 Georgia Tax Expenditure Report, Fiscal Research Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University, various years. 2007 2012 2017 Number AAGR Number AAGR California 126 Hits: 8 |
PBB_2019_PCCD_Report.pdfthe Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. The Justice Reinvestment Initiative | Page 3 The Justice Reinvestment Initiative Extensive research demonstrates that evidence-based policies and programs have positive effects on out- comes and are integral to the performance-based budgeting framework on Crime and Delinquency (PCCD) initiates, validates, and financially sup- ports justice-related programs. The Commission focuses on research, policy, planning, training, evidence- based programming, technology, outreach and support services. In FY 2017-18, PCCD awarded over $37.1 million in Hits: 8 |
PBB-Board Hearing Jan 23 2020.pptxTax Credit Reviews Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Mobile Telecom Broadband Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones DCED PBB Highlights Presentation to the Performance-Based Budget Board January 23, 2020 2/27 earnings | number of jobs ▪ Not possible to estimate certain spillover effects and synergies ▪ Key : incentivization parameter | use consensus of existing research January 23, 2020 3 Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax credit for paid leave due to a living donation by Hits: 8 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2018.pdfanalyses and issuing actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year Tax Data (2015) 17 Natural Gas Trends Production, Price and Impact Fee Trends 18 Historical Spot Prices 19 Impact Fee Research Brief 20 PSERS and SERS Trends Employer Contribution Rates 22 Decomposition of Employer Rates 23 Change in Employer Contributions 24 Hits: 8 |
TC_2023_Waterfront_Development.pdfthe IFO website. This report contains the tax credit review for the Waterfront Development Tax Credit (WDTC). The IFO conducted research to determine if similar programs existed in other states, evaluated WDTC data, re- viewed studies on waterfront development, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the re- quirements contained in Act 48. The WDTC program is unique to Hits: 7 |
TC_2022_Mixed_Use_Development.pdfcredit review for the Mixed-Use Development Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the limited research available and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Please note that multiple stakeholders were contacted Hits: 7 |
TC_2022_Brewers.pdfthe tax credit review for the Brewers’ Tax Credit. The IFO identified similar programs in other states, reviewed the limited research available, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, 12 states (includes Pennsylvania) offer a Hits: 7 |
Senate Appropriations Response Letter 3-6-2020.pdfon how the proceeds were spent. Data for the most recent refinances are not yet available. However, a Freddie Mac Research Note from March 2019 analyzed the Federal Housing Finance Agency National Survey of Mortgage Originations for loans originated from January 100 because the borrower may have used the proceeds for more than one purpose. 1 See http://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20190313_quarterly_refinance_report.page. March 6, 2020 Page 2 Senator Haywood asked which Pennsylvania income groups have benefited from the recent Hits: 7 |
RB_2022_10_Worker_Shortage.pdfThis research brief updates an original release in July 2022 (updated August 2022) to include data for more recent months and new demand, but also because many workers have left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the current excess demand for labor, the magnitude of the state labor force contraction and the impact of Hits: 7 |
TC_2021_Entertainment_Economic_Enhancement_Program.pdfentertainment industry, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently four states (including Pennsylvania) offer a the relative size of the industry and the small number of incentives offered by states, there is a dearth of research that examines the impact of live concerts on state and local economies. The text that follows provides a summary of Hits: 6 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2023_05.pdfjob paid less than $15 per hour. Indirect jobs are those earning between $15 to $17.99 per hour as research finds that employers would likely need to increase compensation for employees within this wage range to maintain pay differentials with younger (e.g., high school and college age), so the analysis assumes higher (larger negative) elasticities at lower wage rates. Research finds that employment of younger workers is more sensitive to changes in wage rates because those workers are generally part- Hits: 6 |
NGIFE-2015.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential Hits: 6 |
Budget_Hearing_Background_Feb2016.pdfS. Energy Information Administration and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. New Pipeline Capacity (15) Independent Fiscal Of Ðice February 2016 1 Research Brief 2016‐1 February 2016 Impact Fee Update In June 2015, the Independent Fiscal Of Ðice (IFO) issued Research Brief 2015‐3, which reported unconventional gas well impact fee collections for calendar year (CY) 2014 along with three potential Hits: 6 |
TC_2023_PA_Resource_Manufacturing.pdfpetrochemical industry, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The PRM Tax Credit is unique to state. Economic Impact | Page 13 Key Findings from Petrochemical Industry Studies The text that follows provides a summary of recent research by government and private entities on the petrochemical industry. These reports are included to provide context, and the IFO has Hits: 5 |
TC_2021_Neighborhood_Assistance_Program.pdfneighborhood assistance incentives, held discussions with stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. Currently, 18 states offer programs similar to Enhance the safety and quality of life for residents of distressed communities. 5 Eligible companies include agricultural, industrial, manufacturing or research and development enterprises. 6 Neighborhood organizations must be registered as a 501(c)(3) to qualify. Business contributions may include Hits: 5 |
TC_2020_Organ and Bone Marrow Donation Tax Credit.pdftax credits over a five- year period. For the second year, the IFO reviewed four tax credits: The Research and Development, Keystone Innovation Zone, Mobile Telecommunications Broadband Investment and Organ and Bone Mar- row Donation Tax Credits. The act requires the held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. The OBMD differs from most tax credits because program Hits: 5 |
Senate_Appropriations_Committee_Response_Letter_2023.pdfChange ('22 to '30) Cumulative Change from 2022 (000s) March 31, 2023 Page 6 A recent report by the Congressional Research Service found that 20% of filers that claimed the federal tax credit reported AGI under $15,000, nearly 40% reported parents, especially women. Some recent findings are as follows: ▪ A paper published by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research found “that a 10 percent increase in child and dependent care tax credit (CDCC) benefits increases annual paid child care Hits: 5 |
Revenue_Estimate_2023_06.pdfMay 2023. 2 On a YOY basis, those CNIT final payments increased 27%. The provision requires corporations to amortize qualifying research and development expenditures over five years (and other research and development expenditures over 15 years) as opposed to immediate expensing or deduction. The provision is effective for TY 2022 Hits: 5 |
RB_2022_08_Worker_Shortage.pdfThis research brief updates an original release in July 2022 to show data for two more recent months (job openings, jobs, unemployment labor demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force Hits: 5 |
PBB_2022_PDE_REPORT_Amended.pdfMarch 9, 2022, the board requested that the report be amended and re- submitted to “add an analysis or cite research that compares Pennsylvania to the average state in terms of the combined state and local funding available to high poverty to make inferences regarding the impact of changes in spending over time or outcomes in other years. For that purpose, researchers would use a panel or longitudinal dataset that includes per pupil spending and various economic, demo- graphic, programmatic and outcome Hits: 5 |
PA_Turnpike_Toll_Projections_May_31_2013.pdfThe report discloses all assumptions used to project toll revenues on the Pennsylvania Turnpike, as well as data sources and research used by the IFO. The numbers contained in this report are projections that may change due to policy decisions and report contains five sections. Section II presents the economic and demographic forecasts used for this analysis. Section III discusses previous research on toll road usage. Section IV describes the methodology used by this analysis. Section V presents projections of toll revenues Hits: 5 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2020.pdfand issuing actuarial notes for legislation that proposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists recent reports published by the IFO during the past year 2,343,000 420,103 128,500 -160,760 Available Parking Other Subtotal Contracted Actuarial Analysis Appropriated / Proposed Publications and Research Materials Employer Taxes Subtotal Operating Office Operations and Supplies Computers, Networks and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Personnel Salaries Benefits Hits: 5 |
Tax_Credit_and_Other_Incentives_2022.pdfThis research brief presents Pennsylvania tax credit and other incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The brief Credits. Reports will be posted to the IFO website in January 2023. Tax Credits and Other Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 State Spending and Grants In FY 2021-22, $404.4 million was Hits: 4 |
Revenue-Estimate-2023-05.pdfMay 2023. 2 On a YOY basis, those CNIT final payments increased 27%. The provision requires corporations to amortize qualifying research and development expenditures over five years (and other research and development expenditures over 15 years) as opposed to immediate expensing or deduction. The provision is effective for TY 2022 Hits: 4 |
Response_Letter_9_23_2019.pdfdoes not tax Social Security income and one of 3 states that does not tax private pensions. The IFO surveyed research by academics and national policy organizations and could not locate any credible findings that would suggest a significant impact on senior homeowners such as those proposed by the request. Some senior homeowners could be swayed by the proposed change, but research suggests that the impact would likely be modest. 2 It is unclear how recent changes in federal tax law that Hits: 4 |
RB_2024_01_Min_Wage.pdfworkers or those attempting to enter the labor market. To examine how a higher minimum wage might impact workers, this research brief uses the latest data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). These to the statewide average wage paid for these lower-wage workers. Minimum Wage Impact on Hourly Wages Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2024 State Cashiers Sales Cashiers Sales New York $13.20 $13.74 $13.95 $0.54 $0.75 Hits: 4 |
RB_2023_06_Student_Loan_Repayment.pdfin September. The moratorium began in March 2020 and will have been effective for three and one-half years. This research brief uses the latest student loan data and the IMPLAN economic model to quantify the state economic and General Fund Federal Budget (November 2022); “Is High Student Loan Debt Always a Problem?” Looney and Yannelis, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (July 2016); and “The Nine (or More) Lives of the Student Payment Pause”, Briones et al., University of Virgina, EdPolicyWorks Hits: 4 |
RB_2023_03_Expiration_of_the_Enhanced_FMAP.pdfThis research brief is the fourth in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the Rates Source: FFIS, FY 2023 Omnibus Phase Down COVID-19 FMAP Increase. Expiration of the Enhanced FMAP Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 This research brief projects the fiscal impact from the (1) phaseout of Hits: 4 |
RB_2022_07_Worker_Shortage.pdflabor demand, but also because many workers left the labor force and no longer work or actively seek employment. This research brief quantifies the scope of this issue and identifies potential factors that motivate the contraction of the state labor force economic growth so that excess demand for workers could be somewhat lower. Where Did the Workers Go? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 A different measure published by BLS (not shown) is the job openings Hits: 4 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Gasoline_Tax.pdfThis research brief provides an overview of Pennsylvania’s gasoline tax rate, revenue collections, consumption and average tax burden per Pennsylvania licensed rate is for comparison purposes and does not include all taxes/fees levied. See: https://www.taxadmin.org/assets/docs/Research/Rates/mf.pdf. Note: Rates are cents per gallon (cpg). Table 1 State Gasoline Tax Rates Pennsylvania’s Gasoline Tax Hits: 4 |
RB_2022_06_Act_105_Pre-Funding_Impact.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief in response to a request made during testimony before the House State Government Subcommittee on Public Pensions, Benefits and Risk Management (August 2021). The subcommittee requested that the IFO examine the financial impact from Act 105 of 2019. This research brief uses data from the affected entities to assess the immediate and long- term financial implications from that legislation. Overview Hits: 4 |
RB_2021_11_Economic_Development_Incentives.pdfThis research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2015-16 through FY 2020-21. The brief divides economic and Brewers’ tax credits. Reports will be available to the public in January 2022. Economic Development Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 State Spending or Grants In FY 2020-21, $389.8 million was Hits: 4 |
RB_2021_09_Pension_Outlook.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide an update on the status of public pension funds in the Commonwealth. The text that follows uses media.pa.gov/Pages/Public-School-Employees-Retirement-System_details.aspx?newsid=166. Public Pension Status and Outlook Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Table 2 uses data from various IFO, SERS and PSERS reports to Hits: 4 |
RB_2020_12_PPP_Loans_to_PA_Businesses.pdf3 Approved loans could not exceed $10 million and were disbursed by private lenders from April through August 2020. This research brief examines the impact of the PPP on Pennsylvania businesses by considering the number and type of firms affected, the act/assistance-for-small-businesses/sba-paycheck-protection- program-loan-level-data. PPP Loans to PA Businesses Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Paycheck Protection Program Loans to PA Businesses Number Share Amount Share of Hits: 4 |
RB-2020-COVID-19 Local Revenue Impact.pdfIn response to a request from the General Assembly, this research brief examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and mandated business closures could impact local earned income taxes (EIT), property taxes districts is believed to be nominal and omitted from this analysis. COVID-19 Impact on Local Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For 2020 Q2, it is known that the PIT withholding growth Hits: 4 |
RB-2020-10-Impact_of_TCJA_on_PA_Taxpayers.pdfreleased state level tax data that reveal the impact that tax law changes had on Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers. This research brief provides a general analysis of those impacts and how tax law changes affected federal income tax paid for tax Pennsylvania federal income taxpayers will depend on income level, family size, filing status, homeownership status and various other factors. This research brief provides a high-level review of how tax law changes affect reported Total Income, Taxable Income, various deductions and Hits: 4 |
RB-10-2020-Economic_Development_Incentives.pdfThis research brief presents Pennsylvania economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2014-15 through FY 2019-20. The brief divides economic Development Zones tax credits. Reports will be available to the public in January 2021. Economic Development Incentives Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 State Spending or Grants In FY 2019-20, $481.1 million was Hits: 4 |
RB 2019 RACP.pdfIn response to a legislative request, the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief which examines the potential impact of House Bill 880. The bill lowers the statutory debt limit for Redevelopment Assistance Budget Office and can be found at the following link: RACP Guidelines Page. Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 All projects must also follow requirements under the competitive bidding process, Pennsylvania Hits: 4 |
RB 2019 Natural Gas Royalties.pdfcould flow to firms that report royalty income as net profits (line 4) on the personal income tax return. 1 Research finds that the average royalty rate in Pennsylvania is 13.5 percent. See Brown et al. “Capturing Rents from Natural may receive prior to the drilling and extraction of natural gas. Natural Gas Royalties Increase in 2017 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The potential magnitude of the understatement cannot be estimated based on available Hits: 4 |
PBB-Overview-2019-01-22.pdfPBB Timeline in First Year Jan 2018 PBB review schedule set by Budget Office and IFO Mar to Jul general research, design data template, contact other states (NM, WA, MN), update to PBB Board staff Mid August first meeting with each agency, transmit data template Sept to Nov multiple follow up meetings, meet with legislative staff agency template submissions, research benchmarks with other states, update to PBB Board Dec final template submissions, begin report drafts Jan 2019 provide drafts to Hits: 4 |
Kling_Presentation.pdfTechnical Information 7 CBO Explaining Analytical Methods: CBO’s Forecasting Models That working paper on CBO’s economic forecast showed researchers how the agency’s various models interact. 8 CBO To let researchers replicate its results, CBO posts the computer code for some analyses. For example: Code for CBO’s estimates of Hits: 4 |
IFO_Hearing_Packet_Feb2019.pdfanalyses and issues actuarial notes for legislation proposing changes to public employee pension or retirement plans and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. This submission lists reports published by the IFO during the past year, and 2,293,000 548,000 372,100 -51,500 Available Parking Other Subtotal Contracted Actuarial Analysis Appropriated / Proposed Publications and Research Materials Employer Taxes Subtotal Operating Office Operations and Supplies Computers, Networks and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Personnel Salaries Benefits Hits: 4 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_March_2023.pdfto public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us Data Acquisition and Analysis 12,000 12,000 12,500 REMI Model 156,000 34,000 38,000 Publications and Research Materials 42,000 45,200 49,720 Parking 34,000 35,900 37,000 Other 6,000 15,000 15 Hits: 4 |
IFO - Economic and Budget Outlook - January 2012.pdfUS economy had lurched into the downturn now called the Great Recession. In September 2009, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the recession had officially ended in June 2009. The recession spanned nineteen months, making it the longest downturn received $9.5 billion in ARRA contracts, grants and loans. Most contracts, grants and loans were awarded for education, transportation, research and other infrastructure purposes. 11 The modest real growth of national and state economies has had limited impact on labor Hits: 4 |
County-Prop-Tax-RB.pdfThis research brief utilizes data from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS for elderly homeowners from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent. Property Tax by County and Income Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 County Households Burden Avg. Tax Households Burden Avg. Tax Adams-Franklin 74 Hits: 4 |
The Payroll Tax Cut Extension FINAL.pdfwebsite. Rather, analysis posted on this website is intended to inform readers of potential outcomes based on available data and research. The IFO welcomes any comments or suggestions. Comments and suggestions can be submitted on the “Contact IFO” page. INTRODUCTION Throughout by $4.1 billion. (See table.) An extension of the payroll tax cut would also impact General Fund tax revenues. Research suggests that recipients might consume anywhere from 30 to 90 percent of a temporary tax cut or rebate, while the Hits: 3 |
TC_2022_Coal_Refuse_Energy_and_Reclamation.pdfreclamation industry, held discussions with various stakeholders and met with agency staff who administer the tax credit. Based on that research, the IFO submits this report to fulfill the requirements contained in Act 48. No other state offers a tax credit ers and met with agencies that administer the tax credit. The following bullet points summarize the main findings of this research: Pennsylvania is the only state that provides a tax credit to incentivize the burning of coal refuse in the Hits: 3 |
Revenue-Estimate-2020-05.pdfmade directly to those entities by the federal government. This includes funds for testing, preparedness and response, and research related to the COVID-19 virus. Employment and Wages The most immediate and quantifiable impact of business closures due to mitigation efforts payments, and more importantly, the extra weekly $600 Federal Pandemic UC (FPUC) payments. A recent article by Pew Research also found significant gains in scratch off sales in many states, but the gains occurred in April. 13 The article noted that Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_08_PTRR_Expansion.pdfin specified local jurisdictions. These supplemental rebates are included in Table 1. Property Tax/Rent Rebate Expansion Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Household Income Owner Renter Total Owner Renter Total $0 to $8,000 36,515 108,681 145 IFO. Table 3: Expansion Impact by County Affected Claimants Total Increase ($000s) Independent Fiscal Office Page 4 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Jesse Bushman. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to jbushman@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_07_Inflation_Impact.pdflevels in the near-term, and then revert to the Federal Reserve target of 2.0% sometime in 2024. This research brief provides an update to an IFO analysis from October 2021 using recent hourly earnings and CPI data to quantify government) and the leisure-hospitality, manufacturing, trade (wholesale and retail) and transportation, and professional-business services (e.g., accountants, lawyers, researchers) sectors. The figures represent the cumulative growth in real average hourly earnings for June 2023 relative to June 2019 (pre- Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_06_Jackpot_Lottery.pdfJune, various years). FY 22-23 Gross Sales are estimated by IFO. What Drives Record Lottery Jackpots? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 total cash value and advertised estimated jackpot) and the ratio of advertised adults ($171 million) and Property Tax and Rent Rebate (PTRR) program (includes administration, $244 million). 5 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Karen Maynard. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to kmaynard@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_05_Migration.pdfwww.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2020-2021. PA Taxpayers Continue to Migrate South Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | May 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 31,821 1.67% 1 IRS Statistics of Income Division, SOI Tax Stats, Migration Data 2020-2021. Independent Fiscal Office Page 3 Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions regarding this research brief can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_03_Rental_Assistance.pdfThis research brief is the third in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the ends ERAP starts state moratorium ends, federal continues Source: Princeton University Eviction Lab. Emergency Rental Assistance Ends Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 In December 2020, the federal government enacted the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA Hits: 3 |
RB_2023_02_ChildCare.pdfThis research brief is the second in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the loans and an unknown amount of Employee Retention Credits to retain employees. Post-Pandemic Child Care Cliff Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 outpaced all private workers, the sector remains relatively low-paying. For June Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_08 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and the northern, central and southwestern regions offset gains in south central and southeastern regions. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2017 to 2020, 59 Pennsylvania counties recorded personal Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_03_Student_Loan.pdfDemographics data from U.S. Census and IFO projections (2021). Is the Student Loan Moratorium Affecting Employment? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 While many factors motivate these outcomes, an ongoing policy that may have 2020/10/09/who-owes- the-most-in-student-loans-new-data-from-the-fed/ and https://www.brookings.edu/research/student-loan- forgiveness-is-regressive-whether-measured-by-income-education-or-wealth/. Staff Acknowledgements Lesley McLaughlin produced this research brief Hits: 3 |
RB_2022_01 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfThis research brief updates a prior release (September 2021) by the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) that used preliminary data to estimate the Department of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The difference between actual (2020) or estimated (2021) residual deaths and the Hits: 3 |
RB_2021_03 COVID-19 Impact on Deaths.pdfOffice (IFO) will release demographic projections that will be incorporated into its annual five-year Economic and Budget Outlook. This research brief contains preliminary results from those projections that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on total resident deaths for 2020 Department of Health. Calculations and estimates for 2021 by the IFO. COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The removal of these five categories yields “residual” deaths, which are due Hits: 3 |
RB_2021_02 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic the northern and northwestern regions of the state compared to the southeast and central. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2016 to 2019, nearly all Pennsylvania counties (except Hits: 3 |
RB_08_2023_County_Income_Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents five maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief presents demographic and regions were offset by contractions in the northern, central and northwestern regions. County Income Patterns 2018-2021 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Source: Population data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Hits: 3 |
RB-2020-03 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic the state generally recorded contractions, the south central and eastern regions recorded moderate gains. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2020 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2016 to 2018, all Pennsylvania counties recorded personal Hits: 3 |
RB-2019-01.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2019-1 January 2019 2018 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2018, which Hits: 3 |
RB-2018-01.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice January 2018 1 Research Brief 2018‐1 January 2018 School District Property Tax Forecast The Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) has issued periodic school property the statutory, economic and structural factors that affect growth rates of school property taxes. This report also incorporates recent IFO research regarding the property taxes paid by homesteads and displays estimates through FY 2022-23. Table 1 provides a summary of Hits: 3 |
RB 2019 County Income Patterns.pdfIntroduction This research brief presents four maps that illustrate recent demographic and income trends at the county level. The brief starts with demographic of the state generally recorded contractions, the southern and southeast regions recorded moderate gains. County Income Patterns Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2019 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Personal Income Growth From 2015 to 2017, nearly all Pennsylvania counties recorded Hits: 3 |
PBB_2023_DDAP_REPORT.pdfstigma reduction campaign in 2020 in partnership with Penn State University’s Douglas W. Pollock Center for Addiction Outreach and Research and two national public health nonprofits (The Public Good Projects and Shatterproof). Results of the 18- month survey indicate that addiction 44.1 43.5 40.9 -- 1 All stigma questions were captured by Penn State's Center for Survey Research as part of the Life Unites Us SUD stigma-reduction campaign. A representative population sample of Pennsylvanians was recruited to Hits: 3 |
PBB_2019_Criminal_Justice_Report.pdfthe Pew Charitable Trusts Results First model. The Justice Reivenstment Initiative | Page 3 The Justice Reinvestment Initiative Extensive research demonstrates that evidence-based policies and programs have positive effects on out- comes and are integral to the performance-based budgeting framework used to benchmark the programs and practices of different jurisdic- tions, the data can highlight areas warranting additional research and analysis. To that end, the focus should be on the relative trends or growth rates between states, because the data do Hits: 3 |
PBB-Board-Hearing-Jan-22-2020.pdfand U.S.? There are many things that PBB cannot do Cost-benefit analysis (no longer supported by Pew Research) Provide a direct method to compare similar programs Identify and quantify waste | best used to track general trends more outcome metrics Limit number of activities (set dollar or percentage threshold) Use other methods: statistical analysis and research/best practices January 22, 2020 3 Some Issues Raised by Agencies Outcomes: we have very limited control over them Hits: 3 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-2020-06.pdfmade directly to those entities by the federal government. This includes funds for testing, preparedness and response, and research related to the COVID-19 virus. Employment and Wages The most immediate and quantifiable impact of business closures due to mitigation efforts payments, and more importantly, the extra weekly $600 Federal Pandemic UC (FPUC) payments. A recent article by Pew Research also found significant gains in scratch off sales in many states, but the gains occurred in April. 12 The article noted that Hits: 3 |
NGIFE-2018.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office 1 Research Brief 2018-2 January 2018 2017 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2017, which Hits: 3 |
NGIFE-2016.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office January 2017 1 Research Brief 2017-1 January 2017 2016 Impact Fee Estimate Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i.e., shale) natural gas wells that were drilled or operating in the previous calendar year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2016, which Hits: 3 |
Impact-Fee-Update-2017-Outlook-2017-07.pdfIndependent Fiscal Of Ðice July 2017 1 Research Brief 2017‐3 July 2017 Impact Fee Update and 2017 Outlook Pennsylvania imposes an annual impact fee on unconventional (i million for calendar year (CY) 2016 (remitted in April 2017), which was a moderate decline from the prior year. This research brief (1) examines the reasons for that decline, (2) I Table 1: Impact Fee Revenues and Distributions 2013 2014 2015 Hits: 3 |
IFO_Response_Letter_April_5_2023.pdffor context. The analysis assumes that 95% of eligible homeowners would apply for the proposed property tax rebate program. Prior research by the IFO finds that utilization rates for these programs are generally less than 100%. For example, in 2021, roughly S. Census Bureau, SESHD Working Paper #2017-39 (July 2017) and O’Hara, Amy, Adam Bee and Joshua Mitchell, “Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_Feb_22_2022.pdfto public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements, dynamic modeling, and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us 25,000 Data Acquisition and Analysis 11,276 12,000 13,000 REMI Model -- 156,000 34,000 Publications and Research Materials 64,129 56,400 52,400 Parking 33,215 34,200 35,200 Other 59 12,700 15,000 Hits: 3 |
IFO_Hearing_Materials_02_2024.pdfData Acquisition and Analysis 12,000 4,000 5,000 REMI Model 32,500 32,500 32,500 Publications and Research Materials 44,000 45,300 49,000 Parking 35,000 32,500 33,000 Other 12,000 26,000 28 85.0 85.0 Neighborhood Improvement Zone (NIZ) 61.1 46.6 69.3 58.5 68.3 70.1 Research and Development 46.9 54.9 46.3 38.4 60.0 60.0 Neighborhood Assistance Programs 18.0 33 Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2022.pdf19 caused 38,650 “excess deaths,” and the great majority (nearly 90%) impacted residents age 65 or older. See IFO Research Brief COVID-19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths (February 2022). 5 See IFO Research Brief Where Did the Workers Go? (Update) (October 2022). Number of Residents (000s) Change (000s) 2022 2019 2022 2025 19- Hits: 3 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2021.pdfFigure 2.3 U.S. and PA Monthly Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research Division. 60.0 62.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 Pennsylvania United States COVID-19 Great Recession Early 2000s on checka- ble deposit balances at the end of June for the latest four years of data by wealth group. Research finds that recipients of the three economic impact payments immediately spent only 30% to 40% of those funds and saved Hits: 3 |
Electricity_Update_March_2022.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. This is an update of a research brief published by the IFO in September 2021 and incorporates the latest data published by the U.S. Energy Information Hits: 3 |
Economic_and_Revenue_Update_2021.pdfproposes changes to public employee pension or retirement plans, cost analyses of approved collective bargaining agreements and special reports and research briefs on various budget and economic topics. Questions regarding this packet can be submitted to contact@ifo.state.pa.us and Software 21,864 24,300 25,000 Data Acquisition and Analysis 2,000 18,000 19,000 Publications and Research Materials 34,520 43,400 45,000 Parking 32,775 33,900 35,000 Other 13,547 8,800 10 Hits: 3 |
County_Property_Tax_Burden_Aug_2021.pdfThis research brief estimates the total 2019 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA statewide. Including these relief amounts would modestly reduce county-level tax burdens. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Hits: 3 |
Budget Hearings Packet.pdfinclude the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Page The U.S. economy expands moderately in 2017 Hits: 3 |
Budget Hearings Packet- Web Version.pdfinclude the preparation of monthly reports on the state economy and revenue collections, periodic revenue estimates and special reports and research briefs on various budgetary and economic topics. The enclosure lists recent reports published by the IFO, and all of these Personnel Office Operations & Supplies Salaries Benefits Retirement Employer Taxes Computers, Networks, Servers and Software Data Acquisition and Analysis Professional Publications & Research Materials Parking Other Subtotal (2) Outlook Summary Economic and Consumer Outlook Page The U.S. economy expands moderately in 2017 Hits: 3 |
ReleasesIFO - Releases IFO IFO • Latest Releases • Revenue Estimates • Revenue & Economic Update • Performance Budgeting • Energy • Pension Analysis • Property Tax • Wage Contracts • Tax Credit Review • Economics and Other • Data • Right-to-Know • About • About IFO • Job Opportunities • Contact IFO • Email Subscription • Links • Follow on Twitter • • Releases IFO Releases More Older Pennsylvanians Working April 17, 2024 | Economics and Other This research brief uses the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators to track the age composition of or the Office of the Budget." Full Report Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted March 21, 2024 | Economics and Other This research brief highlights the depletion of federal child care stimulus funds and the impact on that sector. During the COVID-19 Hits: 3 |
Tax_Credit_and_PBB_Overview_2019-01-24.pdfbe part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact. GAT awards are 3 year commitments. Nearly all research finds small impact from jobs tax credit. Most firms would create jobs regardless. Research finds that job creation is driven by product demand. Offsets roughly 1% to 3% of overall new job cost Hits: 2 |
Tax_Credits_and_Other_Incentives_2024.pdf61.1 85.0 Neighborhood Improvement Zone (NIZ) 40.5 61.1 46.6 69.3 58.5 68.3 Research and Development 43.6 46.9 54.9 46.3 38.4 60.0 Neighborhood Assistance Programs 18.0 18 Manufacturing, Organ and Bone Marrow Donation, Pennsylvania Milk Processing, Qualified Manufacturing Innovation & Reinvestment Deduction, Semiconductor Manufacturing and Biomedical Manufacturing and Research, Strategic Development Areas, and the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs tax credits are not included due to a small or unknown Hits: 2 |
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pptxMay be part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact . ▪ GAT awards are 3 year commitments. Nearly all research finds small impact from jobs tax credit. ▪ Most firms would create jobs regardless. ▪ Research finds that job creation is driven by product demand. ▪ Offsets roughly 1% to 3% of overall new job cost to Hits: 2 |
TaxCredit and PBB Overview- 2019-01-24.pdfbe part of a larger package. Hard to know marginal impact. GAT awards are 3 year commitments. Nearly all research finds small impact from jobs tax credit. Most firms would create jobs regardless. Research finds that job creation is driven by product demand. Offsets roughly 1% to 3% of overall new job cost Hits: 2 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2023_02.pdfto non-taxability or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014-2016” (IRS, August 2022). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census West Virginia (5 th ) and Wyoming (9 th ). As noted, this analysis does not control for the export of taxes. Research finds that existing severance taxes are generally pushed forward into prices and borne by final consumers, most of whom reside Hits: 2 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2022_01.pdfto non-taxability or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013” (IRS, September 2019). State Tax Comparison Page 2 The U.S. Census Wyoming (3 rd ) and West Virginia (5 th ). As noted, this analysis does not control for the export of taxes. Research finds that existing severance taxes are generally pushed forward into prices and borne by final consumers, most of whom reside Hits: 2 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2020_11.pdftaxability or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011-2013” (IRS, September 2019). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles th ) and West Virginia (5 th ). As noted, this analysis does not control for the export of taxes. Research finds that existing severance taxes are generally pushed forward into prices and borne by final consumers, most of whom reside in other Hits: 2 |
State-Tax-Comparison-2020-01.pdftaxability or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008-2010” (IRS, April 2016). Tax Comparison Study Page 2 The U.S. Census Bureau compiles 3 rd ) and Wyoming (4 th ). As noted, this analysis does not control for the export of taxes. Research finds that existing severance taxes are generally pushed forward into prices and borne by final consumers, most of whom reside in other Hits: 2 |
SR2017-03.pdfto non-taxability or misreporting. For more information on misreporting on the federal income tax return, see “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008–2010” (IRS, May 2016). Tax Comparison Study 2017 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 such as North Dakota, Wyoming and West Virginia. As noted, this analysis does not control for the export of taxes. Research finds that most severance taxes are pushed forward into prices and borne by final consumers, most of whom reside in Hits: 2 |
Roundtable_Jan_2024_Final.pdf4% 3.1% 2.4% Notes: Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no data available annualized) and Unemployment Rate (average rate for quarter). Change Payroll Jobs assumes a -40k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs include self-employed. Annual Growth Philly CPI-U • Peaks June Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2024_03.pdfany job paid less than $15 per hour. Indirectly-impacted jobs earn between $15 to $17.99 per hour, as research finds that employers would likely need to increase compen- sation for employees within this wage range to maintain pay differentials younger (e.g., high school and college age), so the analysis assumes higher (larger negative) elasticities at lower wage rates. Research finds that employment of younger workers is more sensitive to changes in wage rates because those workers are generally part- Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Proposal_Analysis_2022_04.pdfin one adjustment. Due to the dramatic increase in wage rates at one time and the lack of data and research related to income received by tipped workers, this report provides limited analysis of the impact of that proposed change. (See the minimum wage. Because economic and demographic conditions are generally similar in the border counties, the higher minimum wage offers researchers a “natural experiment” that allows them to isolate the impact of the higher minimum wage. In nearly all cases, these Hits: 2 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05.pdfAct” Petrosky-Nadeau and Valetta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (May 17, 2021) at https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2021-13.pdf. Economic Outlook | Page 3 ▪ Wage and salary growth turned positive in 2020 Q4 and will expand details of its American Jobs Plan, which includes a proposal to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Researchers from the Joint Committee on Taxation found evidence of significant income and deduction shifting behavior (i.e., acceleration of deductions Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-11-08-2019.pdfof the aforementioned proposals. Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) and previous research by the IFO on school district property taxes, the analysis finds the following: 2 There are 3.4 million assumes that 92.5 percent of eligible homeowners would utilize the proposed tax relief. Data from the ACS and previous research by the IFO suggest that up to 14 percent of homeowners in Pennsylvania do not apply for the homestead exclusion Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-19-2019.pdfS. Census Bureau, SESHD Working Paper #2017-39 (July 2017) and O’Hara, Amy, Adam Bee and Joshua Mitchell, “Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). September 19, 2019 Page 2 School district property taxes paid: $858 million. 3 Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019.pdfS. Census Bureau, SESHD Working Paper #2017-39 (July 2017) and O’Hara, Amy, Adam Bee and Joshua Mitchell, “Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). Rebate Number Amount 1 Base ($175) 61,000 $10.7 Supplemental (up to $1 Hits: 2 |
Response-Letter-09-12-2019-Part-2.pdfS. Census Bureau, SESHD Working Paper #2017-39 (July 2017) and O’Hara, Amy, Adam Bee and Joshua Mitchell, “Preliminary Research for Replacing or Supplementing the Income Question on the American Community Survey with Administrative Records,” U.S. Census Bureau: Social, Economics and Housing Statistics Division, memo to ACS Research Evaluation and Advisory Group (March 2016). Rebate ($1,500 Supplemental) Number Amount 1 Base ($175) 68,600 $12.0 Supplemental Hits: 2 |
RB_2024_03_Child_Care.pdfof Care in Pennsylvania: 2022 Child Care Market Rate Survey Final Report. Child Care Stimulus Funds Depleted Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019-23 Number Establishments 3,699 3,686 3,686 3,684 credit subsidizes the purchaser of child care services, whereas stimulus funds subsidized the supplier (i.e., employer). Staff Acknowledgments This research brief was produced by Frank Lill. Questions can be directed to flill@ifo.state.pa.us. 3 See: Shapiro Administration Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_1_Post_Pandemic_Gasoline_Consumption.pdfemployees retained a hybrid or full-time work-from-home schedule. A working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimates that in 2022 (nationally), 20% of full workdays will be supplied from home, compared to 5% before the pandemic U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 and 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-01-05 16:35:07 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-01-05 Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_12_Gasoline_Consumption_Remains_Subdued.pdfThis research brief updates one published in January 2023 to include an additional 11 months of gasoline consumption and retail price data conditions, tax changes are largely reflected in the prices paid by final consumers. Gasoline Consumption Remains Subdued Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2023 Author: Lesley Rompalo Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 CreationDate: 2023-12-19 13:11:36 ModDate Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_12_Cigarette_Tax_Collections.pdfthan U.S. (-1.7%, first quarter only) and state (-9.4%) revenue trends. Staff Acknowledgements Michaela Miller produced this research brief. Questions regarding this document can be directed to mmiller@ifo.state.pa.us. Cigarette Tax Collections Collapse Since Pandemic Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2023 Cigarette Tax Revenue Growth Since FY 2018-19 Source: PA Dept. of Revenue, U.S. Alcohol and Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_08_Wage_Contract.pdfin the prior term (2019 to 2023). Historically, once this contract is approved, other CBAs will contain similar provisions. This research brief provides a preliminary estimate of the budget impact if the terms of the AFSCME ratified CBA apply to all agreements the IFO is required to analyze, see the IFO website. Budget Impact of 2023 Wage Contracts Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 For this preliminary estimate, the IFO utilized payroll data obtained from the Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_08_Property_Tax_Burden_by_County.pdfThis research brief utilizes county-level income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and property statewide property tax burden would increase from 2.57% to 2.74%. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | August 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_07_CNIT_Data.pdfThis research brief provides tabulations of corporate net income tax (CNIT) returns filed for tax year (TY) 2019 with the Pennsylvania Department Calculations by IFO. No Liability Total 2,500,001 or more Corporate Net Income Tax Data 2019 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | July 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The second table provides insights into the two factors that motivate the Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_03_Rainy_Day_Fund.pdfpoints due to the expiration of the enhanced FMAP and new policy initiatives. 1 See https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2023/03/16/record-state-budget-reserves-buffer- against-mounting-fiscal-threats. State Rainy Day and General Fund Balances Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 State Rank Amount Share State Rank Amount Share Wyoming 1 $1,436 Hits: 2 |
RB_2023_01_SNAP.pdfThis research brief is the first in a series that examines the end or phase-out of various programs tied to the estimate based on published data. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. SNAP Emergency Allotments End in February Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-02-02 20:22:41 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-02-02 Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_09_Student_Loan_Forgiveness.pdfyears of repayments (instead of 20 years) for borrowers with original loan balances of $12,000 or less. 1 This research brief presents estimates from the Penn Wharton Budget Model on the federal budget impact of the changes, the impact across could increase the cost of the IDR program by $450 billion or more. Student Loan Debt Forgiveness Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 revisions to the IDR program. 2 Over the 10-year federal budget Hits: 2 |
RB_2022_09_SNAP_Changes.pdfwith 3 members and monthly/annual income below $3,840/$46,080 qualify for $740/$8,880 per month/annum. Research finds that a key feature of successful safety net programs is an income phase-out because it avoids an “all of labor, which is reinforced by expansion of the income thresholds. Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives? Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 700 800 900 1000 1100 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,000 $2,000 $3 Hits: 2 |
RB_09_2023_Treasury.pdfearnings are posted monthly as General Fund revenue and those amounts have increased dramatically over the past 15 months. This research brief examines the cause of the historically high collections and explains why the windfall is not expected to continue over drop in interest rates (at current balances) results in a $150 million reduction. Treasury Windfalls Boost Revenues Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2023 GF Avg. Fed Funds Treasury Effective Fiscal Year Daily Bal. Target Rate Collect. Rate 2014-15 $1 Hits: 2 |
Prop_Tax_Burden_by_County_2022.pdfThis research brief estimates the total 2020 property tax burden by county utilizing income data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA federal stimulus programs and an estimated 20% increase in capital gains income. Property Tax Burden by County Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Property Tax Property Tax County Taxes Burden Rank County Taxes Burden Rank Hits: 2 |
Presentation-2019-5-1-PAEL.pdfas non-tipped workers. No tip credit. The IFO did not analyze this provision due to lack of existing research. May 1, 2019 3 How Does PA Compare? May 1, 2019 4 2019 2020 2021 California $12.00 $13.00 supply. For labor market, excess supply = unemployment. Fewer jobs. Labor market fully competitive: minimum wage = higher prices. Newer Research: Moderate increases have little/no effect. Hundreds of "natural" state experiments. Median increase ~+10%. Labor market not fully Hits: 2 |
PBB_2022_DHS_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfprograms. This includes the administration of licensing statutes and the oversight, design and development of regulations and policy, enforcement, training, research and data systems for more than 1,200 out-of-home care settings (1,130 PCHs and 70 ALFs) that are funded with state and/or federal dollars, depending on the program. Programs can be categorized as evidence-based if research demonstrates that the program effectively achieves the desired outcomes. EBHV is a prevention and intervention program that connects pregnant mothers Hits: 2 |
PBB_2021_PSP_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfprocure materials, equipment and services to ensure the department and its per- sonnel operate efficiently and effectively. The Bureau of Research and Development (BRD) maintains and updates the department’s policies and houses numerous department program services, while providing logistic support novative business practices to increase agency efficiency and enhance public service. ▪ Maintain sufficient staffing levels to effectively serve the public; research, evaluate, and procure equipment and technologies. ▪ Uphold agency processes and integrity through IAD investigations and SPR examinations. 15-16 Actual Hits: 2 |
PBB_2020_DHS_REPORT_Final_Updated.pdffor some portion of their higher education budget. See “Performance-Based Budgeting in the States,” NCSL Fiscal Policy Research, Vol. 24, No. 35 (September 2016). Background and Methodology | Page 4 The performance-based budget in this report differs from a traditional 11.3% 12.4% 12.5% 12.1% 11.1% -- Source: USDA, Food and Nutrition Service; USDA Economic Research Service. Calculations by IFO. SNAP Eligibility and Authorize Benefits Notes: CAO is county assistance office. App. is applications. 2 Data from PA Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2023_06.pdfPennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts and partnership income (11%), sole proprietorship income (56%), pension income (3%) and social security income (11%). See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2014–2016” (IRS, August 2022). These adjustments are also made by the U.S Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2022.pdfPennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts and partnership income (11%), sole proprietorship income (56%), pension income (3%) and social security income (11%). See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011–2013” (IRS, September 2019). These adjustments are also made by the U.S Hits: 2 |
Official_Revenue_Estimate_Methodology_2021.pdfPennsylvania residents appears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts and partnership income (11%), sole proprietorship income (56%), pension income (3%) and social security income (11%). See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011–2013” (IRS, September 2019). These adjustments are also made by the U.S Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2020-6.pdfappears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on proprietorship income (56 percent), pension income (3 percent) and social security income (11 percent). See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2011–2013” (IRS, September 2019). These adjustments are also made by the U.S. Bureau of Hits: 2 |
Official-Revenue-Estimate-Methodology-2019-06.pdfappears on the annual federal income tax return. The IRS publishes those data on its website. 1 However, research shows that some income is not reported on federal tax returns due to reporting errors or non-compliance. Therefore, amounts reported on proprietorship income (64 percent), pension income (4 percent) and social security income (19 percent). See “Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Estimates for Tax Years 2008–2010” (IRS, May 2016). These adjustments are also made by the U.S. Bureau of Hits: 2 |
NFIB_Feb_2024.pdfor change are year-over-year. Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -30k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Payroll Jobs excludes self-employed. PA Labor Market: Pre vs Post-Covid Slide Note: Employment data not seasonally adjusted, except Unemployment Rate. Payroll Jobs assumes a -30k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs includes self-employed. Payroll Jobs Revert to Pre-Covid Levels Hits: 2 |
MTR-2017-08.pdfSachs finds that the crisis may be connected to declining prime-age labor force participation, especially for men. 3 Other research finds that nearly one-half of workers not in the labor force due to reasons other than school, retirement or study is reasonably accurate, then the actual cost of the opioid crisis could be considerably higher. In the near-term, researchers believe that the budgetary implications of the crisis could intensify as state and local governments continue to devote more resources Hits: 2 |
MER-2015-03.pdfgeneration are delaying the purchase of homes, and that outcome may hinder their ability to accumulate future wealth. 1 Other research suggests that economic conditions for renters are becoming less favorable, and many millen‐ nials face an uncertain economic future. Figure Since 2012, rental inflation has surpassed general inflation. The differential is especially nota‐ ble for the first quarter of 2015. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadel‐ phia finds that rental housing is both less affordable and accessible to Pennsylvanians Hits: 2 |
MER-2014-06.pdfsive changes to state GSP for 1997‐2012 and in‐ cludes various technical changes such as the recog‐ nition of research and development (R&D) as capi‐ tal expenditures and new source data. Overall, BEA revisions reduced GSP growth for Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Of Ðice is conducting further re‐ search into Pennsylvania GSP and plans to publish Ðindings in a new Research Brief series this year. June 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Percentage points. 2 DE and WV Hits: 2 |
June_Revenue_Estimate_2021.pdfAct” Petrosky-Nadeau and Valetta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (May 17, 2021) at https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2021-13.pdf. Economic Outlook | Page 3 ▪ Wage and salary growth turned positive in 2020 Q4 and will expand details of its American Jobs Plan, which includes a proposal to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Researchers from the Joint Committee on Taxation found evidence of significant income and deduction shifting behavior (i.e., acceleration of deduc- Hits: 2 |
Impact-Fee-Estimate-2019.pdfVertical wells that produce less than 90 Mcf per day are exempt from the fee in any operating year. This research brief uses recent data published by the Department of Environmental Protection to estimate collections for calendar year (CY) 2019, which volume of production, and it does not provide a measure of tax burden relative to natural gas sales. Therefore, this research brief computes an annual average effective tax rate (ETR) for all wells in operation during the year. 4 This computation Hits: 2 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2023.pdfTable 4.5). Collections are also reduced due to dissipating gains from a federal tax law change that requires certain research and experi- mentation expenditures to be amortized and not expensed. Fiscal Year 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 Health expenditures are based on historical percentage allocations of receipts for the Tobacco Use, Prevention and Cessation and the Health Research line items. These alloca- tions are used for all years of the forecast. Fiscal Year 22-23 23-24 24- Hits: 2 |
Electricity_Update_Sep_2021.pdfThe Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) publishes this research brief to provide a general overview of the Pennsylvania electricity market. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information amounts for direct use and line losses, which are not yet available for 2020. Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | September 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 that period. For the New England states, New York and New Jersey Hits: 2 |
Demographics_Outlook_2020.pdfrates may also be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recession. According to a 2011 Pew Research study, birth rates are strongly correlated to the economy. When the economy enters a recession, birth rates tend to decline. The Pew rates for these age groups began to fall. 3 Livingston, Gretchen. “In a Down Economy, Fewer Births.” Pew Research Center. October 12, 2011. https://www.pew- socialtrends.org/2011/10/12/in-a-down-economy-fewer-births/. Demographic Trends by Age Hits: 2 |
2024_Mid_Year_Update_Final.pdf4% 3.1% 2.4% Notes: Change Payroll Jobs for 2023 assumes a -40k revision to preliminary figures based on research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Blue shading is an estimate (some data available) or projection (no data available annualized) and Unemployment Rate (average rate for quarter). Change Payroll Jobs assumes a -40k revision to preliminary data based on research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. All Jobs include self-employed. Annual Growth Philly CPI-U • Peaks June Hits: 2 |
2006_surviving_spouse_healthcare_study.pdfof providing the proposed benefit extension. COMMISSION RECOMMENDATIONS -32- Issue – Potential Legal Obstacles During the course of the Commission’s research for this report, it became apparent that significant legal hurdles may exist to providing subsidized healthcare coverage to the spouses Survivor-spouse must provide adequate information regarding deceased retiree and former REHP coverage. 3. SERS - Researches records to determine if spouse is eligible for Survivor Spouse election. 4. SERS - When eligible SERS prepares a Survivor-Spouse information letter and election form Hits: 2 |
2002_dbdc_report.pdfseen significant growth, although the DB approach continues to predominate in public sector retirement systems. In the course of its research, the Commission identified a total of 21 state-level public employee pension plans in 16 states that are DC or reduced or partial benefit and who receive no benefit.” – House Resolution No. 266 Defined Contribution Plan Experience The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) has collected and published data on many private sector 401(k) plans over a period of years. The Hits: 2 |
Witgert Nov 15, 2012.pdfcoverage-in-states Big Decision #2: Health Insurance Exchanges 12 National Conference of State Legislatures http://www.ncsl.org/issues- research/health/state-actions- to-implement-the-health- benefit-exch.aspx Exchange Primer • Health insurance marketplace • Subsidies for individuals 133% - 400% Hits: 1 |
State_Tax_Comparison_2024_02.pdfWyoming (3 rd ) and West Virginia (6 th ). As noted, this analysis does not control for the export of taxes. Research finds that existing severance taxes are generally pushed forward into prices and borne by final consumers, most of whom reside Hits: 1 |
Smetters_Presentation_Full.pdf753 Changes to the treatment of investment -86 -180 -152 Modification to net operating loss deductions 201 145 169 Amortize research & experimentation 120 51 88 Repeal of Domestic Production Deduction 98 100 300 Reforms to certain business tax expenditures 149 148 Hits: 1 |
Select Committee Oct 1 2012 FINAL.pdfimposed against 2010 data. 1.Oct.2012 Analysis of HB 1776 and SB 1400 of 2012 – Slide 21 Homeowners Research suggests an average property tax capitalization rate of roughly one-third. Median home price 2014 $180,000 Median Hits: 1 |
SD_Property_Tax_Forecast_Nov_2021.pdfreceipts from property taxes levied in a prior fiscal year. 2 The decline projected in February was based on a research brief that the IFO released in June 2020 on the impact of COVID-19 on local revenues. See http://www Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_06.pdfto other trends discussed in this section, that outcome should constrain SUT revenue growth. 4 See https://www.freddiemac.com/research/pdf/202204-Note-Refinancing-04.pdf. 2019.2 2021.2 2021.3 2021.4 2022.1 2022.2 to 2022 Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2022_05.pdfto rising interest rates, refinancing should fall dramatically and the cash-out equity income 3 See https://www.freddiemac.com/research/pdf/202204-Note-Refinancing-04.pdf. Figure 1.4 U.S. Real Purchases of Durable Goods Contracts from Peak Note Hits: 1 |
Revenue_Estimate_2021_05_Presentation.pdffederal transfers ▪ Up +10.4% (adjusted for shifts/transfers) from FY 19-20 ▪ Up +11.7% from FY 18-19 ▪ Research: most EIP monies are spent/used within 3 months ▪ Forecast: one more very strong month for June Motor vehicle sales Hits: 1 |
Response-Letter-08-16-2019.pdffigures shown in the table assume that 95 percent of eligible homeowners would utilize the proposed tax relief. 1 Previous research by the IFO suggests that the full population eligible for property tax relief does not typically apply for relief. For Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_04_Older_Workers.pdfthrough the remainder of this decade. 1 See: https://lehd.ces.census.gov/ . More Older Pennsylvanians Working Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2024 Age Group 14-24 25-44 45-64 65+ All Employment Change Number (000s) 15.1 46 Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_04_Job_Change.pdffrom the same two months in 2020 (pre-Covid pandemic). Healthcare and Government Drive PA Job Gains Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | April 2024 Number Percent All Payroll Jobs (000s) 62.5 1.0% Administrative and Support -8.8 -3.0% Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_03_Jobs_Revised.pdffactors, which have been difficult to estimate since 2020. 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revised Down 53,400 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2024 2023 PA Payroll Jobs Revision Number Percent All Payroll Jobs (000s) -53.4 -0.9% Construction -5 Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_02_Jobs_Revised.pdforg/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions. Negative Revision to PA Job Gains Expected Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | February 2024 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2022.1 2022.2 2022.3 2022.4 2023.1 Hits: 1 |
RB_2024_01_SNAP.pdfPA. population is estimated by IFO. CPI-U data are for October. SNAP Policy Changes Expand Program Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2024 CreationDate: 2024-01-11 14:53:18 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2024-01-11 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_1_Population_Contraction.pdfsum of components due to unattributed amounts. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. PA Population Contracts Since 2020 Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | January 2023 CreationDate: 2023-01-04 19:01:14 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2023-01-04 Hits: 1 |
RB_2023_03_Electricity_Update.pdfYork. -26 -41 -25 +81 +21 -23 -13 2022 Net Exports (million megawatt hours) Pennsylvania Electricity Update Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | March 2023 +81 +21 -48 -23 -26 -25 -13 % Export State 2018 2022 Change Share Pennsylvania 52.4 80 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_12_Worker_Reduction_By_Age.pdfCensus Bureau (jobs by age and 2020 population) and IFO (2022 population). Young Workers Leave PA Workforce Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 The third set of figures shows the ratio of QWI payroll jobs Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_12_UC_By_AGI.pdfdollars in millions (except average). 2020 includes $1.86 billion in LWA payments. Unemployment Compensation by AGI Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | December 2022 CreationDate: 2022-12-20 16:23:50 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2022-12-20 Hits: 1 |
RB_2022_06_PA_Migration.pdfwww.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2019-2020. PA Residents Migrating to Southern States Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | June 2022 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Net Share of Migration Population Rank Idaho 36,655 1.99% 1 Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_11_Wage_Growth.pdfU.S. BEA and IFO. 2021 Q2 2021 Q4 PA and U.S. Record Historic Wage Growth Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2021 CreationDate: 2021-11-03 13:02:07 Creator: Microsoft® Word for Microsoft 365 ModDate: 2021-11-03 Hits: 1 |
RB_2021_10_Inflation_Impact_Wages.pdfS. Bureau of Labor Statistics (data and methodology). Table 1 Inflation Eroding Real Wages and Pension Benefits Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2021 Independent Fiscal Office Page 2 Higher rates of inflation also have important implications for public pensions. Table Hits: 1 |
RB_11_2023_PA_Worker_Earnings.pdfalso publishes separate indexes for health insurance and total benefits. PA Worker Earnings Catch Up to Inflation Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | November 2023 Pennsylvania Annual Growth Rates Philly Hourly Employ Year CPI-U Earnings Cost Index 2019 1.9% 1 Hits: 1 |
RB_10_2023_PA_Strained_Nursing_Homes.pdfwaitlist. 6 Pennsylvania Department of Human Services, 2023-2024 Quarterly BAF Rates. Pennsylvania’s Strained Nursing Homes Independent Fiscal Office | Research Brief | October 2023 2019 2023 Growth Facilities 1 PA 695 672 -3.3% U.S. 15,471 14,993 -3 Hits: 1 |
Presentation-2018-10-Performance-Based-Budget-Board.pdfcorrections, parole supervision and victim services PCCD 6 activities focusing on victim services, juvenile justice system, delinquency prevention, research and strategic policy development and school safety JCJC 3 activities focusing on support for juvenile court judges and Hits: 1 |
PBB_TaxCredits_Schedule_2022_Update.pdfOffices Environmental Hearing Board Conservation and Natural Resources Year Tax Credits 1 Film Production New Jobs Historic Preservation Incentive 2 Research and Development Keystone Innovation Zones Mobile Telecom and Broadband Organ and Bone Marrow 3 Neighborhood Assistance Resource Enhancement and Protection Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Sept_28_2021.pdfjob creation only September 28, 2021 3 KSDZ Economic Impact Challenges Program currently has a small number of participants ▪ No research exists that links a job creation tax credit to brownfield investment ▪ More data needed to facilitate a formal economic analysis Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Mar_09_2022.pdfDifferent levels of spending can be associated with similar outcomes PDE could make a historical data set available to academic researchers to perform a longitudinal analysis that tracks outcomes over time across all school districts March 9, 2022 6 Questions Presentation Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Jan_26_2022.pdfLic. -- -- -- 3.2 -- -- 3.2 Ag. Prep. and Response -- -- -- -- 3.0 -- 3.0 Agricultural Excellence -- -- 2.8 -- -- -- 2.8 Agricultural Research -- -- 2.2 -- -- -- 2.2 Farmers' Market Food Coup. -- 2.1 -- -- -- -- 2.1 Animal Health and Diag. Com. 2.0 -- -- -- -- -- 2 Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Hearing_Apr_26_2021.pdfoffset roughly 42% of project cost (avg. cost = $60,400) ▪ Must be maintained for a predetermined lifespan (5-10 years) ▪ Research concludes incentives combined with regulation are effective ▪ 55% credits sold | farmers lack necessary tax liability ▪ Credits awarded for previously completed Hits: 1 |
PBB_Board_Amend_03_09_22.pdfLunch Program eligibility 4. In the state benchmarks section of the K-12 Education Activity, add an analysis or cite research that compares Pennsylvania to the average state in terms of the combined state and local funding available to high poverty Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_PHMC_REPORT.pdfPage 12 - This page intentionally left blank. - The State Museum | Page 13 Activity 3: The State Museum The State Museum researches, collects and preserves artifacts that demonstrate Pennsylvania’s natural and cultural heritage. The museum contains over 160,000 square feet Hits: 1 |
PBB_2022_AGING_REPORT_Addendum.pdfprogram. The first three programs are comprised of six, 2.5 hour weekly workshops developed by Stanford University Patient Education Research Center. These three programs collect data on participants’ chronic conditions, and at the conclusion of the course participants were asked Hits: 1 |
PBB_2021_PennDOT_REPORT_ADDENDUM.pdfconsultants and are primarily constructed by contrac- tors through a low-bid process. Projects contain pre-construction phases such as research, planning and programming, environmental activities, design, right-of-way, railroad grade crossing and utility services, contract management and consultant services Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_PEMA_REPORT.pdffor some portion of their higher education budget. See “Performance-Based Budgeting in the States,” NCSL Fiscal Policy Research, Vol. 24, No. 35 (September 2016). Background and Methodology | Page 2 The performance-based budget in this report differs from a traditional Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DOS_REPORT.pdffor some portion of their higher education budget. See “Performance-Based Budgeting in the States,” NCSL Fiscal Policy Research, Vol. 24, No. 35 (September 2016). Background and Methodology | Page 2 The performance-based budget in this report differs from a traditional Hits: 1 |
PBB_2020_DEP_Report.pdffor some portion of their higher education budget. See “Performance-Based Budgeting in the States,” NCSL Fiscal Policy Research, Vol. 24, No. 35 (September 2016). Background and Methodology | Page 2 The performance-based budget in this report differs from a traditional Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_DOBS_Report.pdfOutcomes This activity provides the leadership, support and oversight necessary for effective and efficient operations of DOBS. Established research finds higher employee satisfaction, and lower turnover, if leadership effec- tively communicates the agency’s mission and vision, and empowers employees to Hits: 1 |
PBB_2019_DGS_Report.pdfreflected in relatively low levels of human resource and overtime costs, as well as staff turnover rates. Established research finds higher employee satisfaction, and lower turnover, if leadership effectively communicates the agency’s mission and vision, and empowers employees to have Hits: 1 |
PBB-Board-Hearing-Agenda-January 2019-Revised.pdfJohn Wetzel, Secretary, Department of Corrections Christopher Oppman, Deputy Secretary of Administration, DOC Bret Bucklen, Ph.D, Director of Planning, Research & Statistics, DOC Nicolette Bell, Special Assistant to the Secretary, DOC Leo Dunn, Chairman, Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole 11 Hits: 1 |
PBB Board Hearing Agenda- January 2019.pdfJohn Wetzel, Secretary, Department of Corrections Christopher Oppman, Deputy Secretary of Administration, DOC Bret Bucklen, Ph.D, Director of Planning, Research & Statistics, DOC Nicolette Bell, Special Assistant to the Secretary, DOC Leo Dunn, Chairman, Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole 11 Hits: 1 |
novak ppt.pdfF EDERAL R ESERVE B ANK OF P HILADELPHIA Pennsylvania Economic Outlook Independent Fiscal Office January 18, 2012 Jason Novak Research and Policy Support Manager Half Empty or Half Full? • Increased economic activity equals tax revenue increases if and only if Hits: 1 |
MTR-2017-03.pdfshare of student loans increased from 11% to 14% over that same period. Credit card debt was unchanged at 7%. Research by the FRBNY suggests that the changing composition of debt is influenced by (1) the aging population and associated change Hits: 1 |
MTR-2016-12.pdfand subject to revision. Figures are annualized rates. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Pennsylvania State Data Center, “Research Brief: 2016 National and State Population Estimates Released,” December 21, 2016. United States Pennsylvania Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Hits: 1 |
MQRE_FY22_23_August.pdfthereafter. This provision takes effect immediately and reduces FY 2022-23 PIT withholding revenues by $45.0 million. Various Taxes Research and Development Tax Credit (Act 53) The act increases the annual cap on the tax credit from $55 million to Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2022.pdfto homeowners). That share is based on data from 2019 to 2020, prior to the dramatic increase in price. Academic research finds that consumers are unresponsive to higher gasoline prices in the short-term, and the significant price increase has likely Hits: 1 |
Monthly_Economic_Update_June_2020.pdfof Pittsburgh released a tool that estimates the potential revenue loss to Pennsylvania municipalities due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Researchers estimate that revenue losses range from $833 million to $3.4 billion, or a 4% to 16% reduction in total Hits: 1 |
Mid_Year_FY16-17_Presentation.pdfas food and clothing. Difficult for businesses to pass on costs. Hits profits. Weak profits impact business purchases. Research suggests roughly 1/3 of SUT from business. PA consumers reluctant to spend. Modest wage gains. PA mortgage Hits: 1 |
MER-2015-01.pdfimproves. However, it is not clear how quickly the savings at the gas pump translate into additional consumer spending. Many researchers believe that consumers will spend roughly one quarter to one half of these savings, and will use the residual sav- Hits: 1 |
MER-2014-12.pdfthat they will maintain current levels of oil production in an effort to preserve their share of the mar‐ ket. Research has shown that short term changes in the price of gasoline have little impact on the volume of gasoline con‐ Hits: 1 |
jackson ppt.pdfnatural gas into vehicle-fuel stream. • These jobs won’t all necessarily be located in Pennsylvania. • State’s educational and research capabilities should help to attract employers. • Construction jobs will get a boost from (eventual) housing recovery. • Professional services, health-care Hits: 1 |
ITEP-Presentation-11-14-2019.pdfSustainable Economic Development Introduction to ITEP The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization that works on federal, state, and local tax policy issues. ITEP's mission is to ensure that elected officials Hits: 1 |
Initial_Revenue_Update_May_2023_Final.pdf36 +40.1% Couriers and Messengers 33 43 +10 +28.8 Computer System Design 70 80 +10 +13.5 Scientific Research-Development 39 48 +9 +21.1 Note: Thousands of payroll jobs. Data not seasonally adjusted. Excludes self-employed. Source: U Hits: 1 |
Initial_Revenue_Estimate_Presentation_May_2023_Final.pdf36 +40.1% Couriers and Messengers 33 43 +10 +28.8 Computer System Design 70 80 +10 +13.5 Scientific Research-Development 39 48 +9 +21.1 Note: Thousands of payroll jobs. Data not seasonally adjusted. Excludes self-employed. Source: U Hits: 1 |
IFO_Testimony_Feb2018.pdfThe IFO has not included this impact in revenue projections because these effects take time to fully manifest themselves. Most researchers believe that dynamic effects will offset one-eighth to one-quarter of the projected reduction in tax revenues. That concludes Hits: 1 |
IFO_Analyst_Opening.pdfto state revenues, expenditures and the economy; 2) applies economic and statistical principles, practices and techniques to design and complete research on fiscal and economic issues; 3) prepares regular reports on the economy and state revenues; and 4) drafts text and Hits: 1 |
IFO testimony CR Hearing Jan 29 2020.pdfIFO surveyed reports, fiscal notes and other documents from states that enacted combined reporting in the past decade. Overall, that research suggested a consensus that combined reporting could increase revenues from 5 to 15 percent. An outlier state was Rhode Island Hits: 1 |
HTAE_2019_05_15.pdfas non-tipped workers. No tip credit. The IFO did not analyze this provision due to lack of existing research. May 15, 2019 6 How Does PA Compare? May 15, 2019 7 2019 2020 2021 California $12.00 $13.00 Hits: 1 |
House_Appropriation_Response_Letter_3_17_2021.pdfWashington both reported an increase in the number of drug-related DUIs following the legalization of recreational marijuana. While most researchers note an increase in traffic-related fatalities after recreational marijuana legalization, results are mixed on whether increased marijuana consumption is Hits: 1 |
House Appropriation Response Letter 2-28-2020.pdfattached table. Representative Brown requested property tax burden by county. This project has been undertaken by the IFO as a Research Brief and will be released as a stand-alone report later this spring. As indicated during the IFO’s budget Hits: 1 |
HAC testimony Feb 2019.pdfmore comprehensive reports in future years. For these first year reports, the IFO sought to accomplish the following goals: Research models used in other states that currently employ PBB systems such as Washington, New Mexico, Nevada and Kansas. Establish Hits: 1 |
FTA_Student_Loan_Presentation_Oct_2023.pdfany borrowers continue to pay? | who was impacted? ▪ Size of repayment pause | economic and revenue impact (IMPLAN) ▪ Supporting data and research | caveats and technical issues III Looking Forward: 2024 ▪ New SAVE income driven repayment (IDR) plan | lots of uncertainty ▪ Economic and Hits: 1 |
FTA_Presentation_Oct_24_2022.pdfEvaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI 2022 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference October 24, 2022 Background: Independent Fiscal Office Created by Act 120 of 2010 and began operations in 2011 Nearly Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2020.pdfbased on the FY 2020-21 percentage allocations of receipts for the Tobacco Use, Prevention and Cessation and the Health Research line items. These allocations are used for all years of the forecast. Fiscal Year 19-20 20-21 21-22 Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2019.pdfthe FY 2019-20 percentage allocations of receipts for the Tobacco Use, Prevention and Cessation and the Health Research line items. These allocations are used for all years of the forecast. The Department of Human Services appropriations for MA – Workers Hits: 1 |
Five_Year_Outlook_2017_Presentation.pdfaccountable and fiscally sound. Work with states to develop and implement best practices. Previous Experience and Education Provided research and analysis on local and state public policy topics for the American Chamber of Commerce Executives. Planned and coordinated Hits: 1 |
Econ Summit Presentation Feb 28 2017.pdfand Lotto -2.9% -9.4% 9.3% -7.6% Note: millions of dollars. Source: IFO forecast from Gaming Trends Research Brief, February 2017. Slots and table games revenues have not been reduced for $45.3 million in CY 2016 refunds Hits: 1 |
Demographics_Outlook_2021.pdfapportioned out by age group. Deaths were higher in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the research brief COVID- 19 Impact on Pennsylvania Deaths, the IFO calculated the excess deaths for 2020 and 2021. 2 Slightly over Hits: 1 |
ACN_SB1_A01354_A01558_2017_06_03a.pdftheir lifetime. Data from a recent edition of the Annuity Shopper Buyer’s Guide (April 2017), as well as other research, suggest an approximate range of 10-20 percent premium to pur- chase a lifetime annuity for an individual age 65 Hits: 1 |
ACN_SB1071_A10803_text.pdfand requests for information concerning the system or the plan from the press, Commonwealth officials, State employees, the general public, research organizations, and officials and organizations from other states, and provide information as authorized by the board. 2016/90MSP/SB1071A10803 - 162 Hits: 1 |
2020 PBB Agenda.pdfIndependent Fiscal Office Brenda Warburton, Deputy Director, Independent Fiscal Office 9:45 am – 11:00 am Review of Tax Credits (Research & Development, Keystone Innovation Zones, Mobile Telecom & Broadband, Organ & Bone Marrow) Amy Gill, Deputy Secretary of Tax Policy, Department of Revenue Hits: 1 |
2013-08 Monthly Economic Summary.pdfDefini- tional changes include the accrual treatment of pension plans and the capitalization of certain in- tellectual property such as research and develop- ment, entertainment, literary and artistic originals. Capitalization implies that costs are deducted over many years, not immediately in Hits: 1 |
2013-07 Monthly Economic Summary.pdffrom the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) State of the States reports 2009-2013. http:// www.americangaming.org/industry-resources/research/state-states. Figures are for the calendar year as reported by AGA. 2 Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, adjusted for calendar Hits: 1 |
2013-04 Monthly Economic Report.pdfthe fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013. These changes likely affect consumers’ saving or spending decisions. Research suggests that for each $1 change in stock market wealth, consump- tion rises or falls about 2.5 cents. Changes Hits: 1 |
2013-01 Monthly Economic Report.pdfby roughly $5 billion. (See table.) The exact share of the $5 billion that would be spent is uncertain, and research suggests that much of it might be saved or used to pay off debt. Assuming that 50 percent ($2.5 Hits: 1 |
2004_srpvffinal.pdfto study volunteer firefighter retirement plans operating in other states that were enabled by state law. During the course of research, the Commission staff identified a total of 26 states in which volunteer firefighter retirement benefit plans or “service award programs Hits: 1 |
2002_drop_report.pdfcredited at all. Final distribution of the account balance also varies. - 2 - Most Common Design Features The Commission staff conducted research to ascertain common design features and operational characteristics of public sector DROP programs currently in operation throughout the country. The Hits: 1 |
About IFOseries. Stacey Knavel Principal Revenue Analyst Formerly employed as a manager in the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue's Bureau of Research, where she coordinated the revenue forecasting process for both the General Fund and the Motor License Fund. Ms. Knavel also Hits: 1 |