IFO Releases
Post-Pandemic Gasoline Consumption
January 05, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a research brief on the decline in Pennsylvania gasoline consumption resulting from recent trends in remote working and higher gasoline prices. Reduced consumption means less funding for road and bridge construction, as gasoline taxes fund 55% of those projects.
Tags: brief, consumption, gasoline, research
PA Population Contracts Since 2020
January 04, 2023 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest Census data to rank states based on net migration between states since 2020. During the past two years, Pennsylvania recorded a net domestic outflow of 16,220. Relative to state population, the net outflow caused state population to contract by 0.1%, which ranked 29th across all states.
Tags: contraction, pennsylvania, population
Unemployment Compensation by AGI
December 21, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a research brief that uses the latest federal tax return data to provide a breakdown by income class for unemployment compensation (UC) benefits received by Pennsylvania residents in 2019 and 2020. For 2020, residents received $33.4 billion of UC income and $21.3 billion (64%) was reported on the federal tax return. For amounts reported, $2.9 billion (13.4%) was reported by filers with more than $100,000 of adjusted gross income (AGI). High income taxpayers qualify for UC benefits because the federal program does not apply income thresholds.
Tags: brief, compensation, research, unemployment
Tax Credits and Economic Development Incentives
December 15, 2022 | Economics and Other
This research brief presents data on Pennsylvania tax credits and economic development incentives for fiscal years (FY) 2017-18 through FY 2022-23. The tables provide annual detail on tax credit utilization or awards, state spending or grants, job training programs and state loan programs. Fiscal year 2022-23 amounts are budgeted, authorized or projected and may differ from final amounts expended or awarded for the year. The brief also highlights recent changes to incentive program spending or utilization.
This research brief was reposted on December 21 to correct a text error on page 1.
Young Workers Leave PA Workforce
December 08, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a new research brief that examines the age composition of the PA workforce using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since the onset of the pandemic, the data show significant reductions in workforce participation rates for workers under age 35. Workforce participation rates declined for older workers too, but contractions were notably more moderate.
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tax Incentives Without ROI
October 26, 2022 | Economics and Other
Michaela Miller gave a brief presentation at the FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference on evaluating the effectiveness of tax incentives without ROI. The REAP tax credit was used as a case study.
Tags: incentives, roi, tax
Where Did the Workers Go?
October 25, 2022 | Economics and Other
This research brief updates a prior release in August 2022 to show data for more recent months and new demographic projections from the IFO’s Demographic Outlook report.
The IFO published a research brief that examines the factors that caused the PA labor force to contract by 120,000 workers since the start of the pandemic. The updated research brief focuses on the interaction between recent and projected demographic trends and the contraction of the state labor force.
Tags: brief, demographics, labor, research
2022 Demographic Outlook
October 05, 2022 | Economics and Other
Section 604-B (a)(2) of the Administrative Code of 1929 specifies that the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) shall “provide an assessment of the state’s current fiscal condition and a projection of what the fiscal condition will be during the next five years. The assessment shall take into account the state of the economy, demographics, revenues and expenditures.” This report fulfills the demographics obligation for the IFO’s release of the Economic and Budget Outlook for Fiscal Years 2022-23 to 2027-28.
Tags: demographic, demographics, outlook
Do SNAP Changes Impact Work Incentives?
September 29, 2022 | Economics and Other
A new IFO research brief examines the impact on SNAP benefits from the ongoing public health emergency that eliminates the income phase-out and the recent expansion of income thresholds from 160% to 200% of federal poverty income guidelines (FPIG). Due to the elimination of the income phase-out, recipients face a vertical all-or-nothing benefits cliff. Research finds that vertical cliffs provide strong disincentives.
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness
August 31, 2022 | Economics and Other
The IFO published a research brief that uses a national analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and data from the U.S. Department of Education to estimate the impact on Pennsylvania borrowers from student loan debt relief and other proposed changes to the federal program.